Daily Analysis Forex Mix

[radex78]

USD/CAD is in a bullish bias, awaiting today's Canadian data release.

The Canadian dollar has weakened slightly in the last five trading days, with a bullish bias. The USD/CAD price is currently around 1.36527 on the FXOpen chart. The pair has drawn a bullish candle near the middle band line.

Tensions in the Middle East have not completely subsided, and oil prices remain volatile. Although WTI briefly fell to around $87.86, the price rebounded to around $94.72.

The Canadian dollar, as a commodity currency, typically weakens when oil prices fall. However, this sentiment is sometimes offset by safe-haven flows into USD. The US dollar index (DXY) is currently up at 98.241 from a previous low of 97.816.

The BoC is expected to keep interest rates steady as Canadian core inflation is starting to come under control. Today's market focus is on the release of Canadian employment data, employment change, and unemployment rate. Market consensus estimates average unemployment at around 6.7%, the same as the previous period. Meanwhile, employment change is expected to fall by 12.9k from the previously revised 14.1k.

In the US today, the market will focus on the release of NFP data and the employment rate, which typically impact the market. If US data is strong while Canada's is weak, USD/CAD could rise to the upper end of its range. Conversely, if Canadian data is positive, CAD could potentially strengthen.

Several Fed officials are still signaling that interest rates will remain high for longer due to energy inflation stemming from the US-Iran war. This keeps the USD strong as a safe-haven currency.

The latest update on the US-Iran war shows intensive talks toward a ceasefire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. However, the market remains skeptical due to ongoing military activity and new threats in the Gulf region. Oil prices remain highly sensitive to war headlines.

The main focus of the talks is the opening of the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic for at least 60 days to reduce pressure on the global economy.

The US President issued an ultimatum for Iran to accept a permanent deal or face a new wave of bombings. However, Trump's recent rhetoric has tended to be optimistic, with statements of significant progress being made.

News of this potential deal sent oil prices down about 6% from their weekly peak, which eased inflationary pressures in the US but also reduced the CAD's appeal as a commodity currency.

USDCAD is expected to be within a realistic range today, with support at 1.3520 and resistance at 1.3680 and 1.3720. This forecast could be wrong. The Middle East conflict has the potential to cause fluctuations in oil prices, which could impact the Canadian dollar.

USDCAD D1

On the daily timeframe, USDCAD is currently near the middle band line. The Bollinger Bands are drawing a descending channel with narrowing band spacing, indicating bearish sentiment and lower volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) above the middle band is drawing a flat channel, while prices below the line indicate a downtrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) near the upper band is drawing a flat channel, indicating sideways movement over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is pointing at 71, and the VB Low is pointing at 28. The 43-point difference reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is pointing at 50 with a flat channel, indicating the price is in a neutral position.

The RSI Price Line is pointing at 46 with an ascending channel crossing the TSL from the downside, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is pointing at 40 with an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend.

USDCAD H4

On the H4 timeframe, USDCAD is near the upper band line. The Bollinger Bands are drawing an ascending channel with narrow band spacing, indicating bullish sentiment and moderate volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) near the middle band line draws a flat channel, with the price above the line, indicating an uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well above the upper band, drawing a flat channel, indicating sideways movement over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High is at 63, and its VB Low is at 26. The 37-point difference reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 48 with a flat channel, indicating a greater weighting of bears than bulls.

The RSI Price Line is at 63 with an ascending channel crossing the TSL from the downside, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 57 with an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend.

 

[radex78]

XAG/USD is in an aggressive phase amid geopolitical and industrial tensions

Silver prices were in an aggressive phase during last week's trading session. They even reached 82.16 before pulling back and closing at 80.275 on the FXOpen chart. Silver prices remain volatile with a moderate bullish bias, but are entering a profit-taking-prone area after a strong rally approaching the upper band line.

US-Iran geopolitical tensions, USD weakness, and industrial demand have fueled silver's aggressive move.

The impact of the US-Iran conflict has driven up energy prices, affecting safe-haven flows such as silver. The market is now focused on the development of the US-Iran peace proposal mediated by Pakistan. Iran has submitted a formal proposal to the US for an end to the conflict and discussions on the security of the Strait of Hormuz. However, the situation remains fragile.

There are still reports of drone attacks in the Gulf region. Israel continues to pressure Iran, and the Iranian nuclear issue and the Strait of Hormuz remain unresolved. WTI oil prices fell to around 81.91 due to optimism about negotiations, which has suppressed inflation expectations and helped lower bond yields.

The US dollar remains relatively under pressure as markets begin to speculate that the Fed could become more dovish if US inflation slows in the coming months. A weaker USD tends to support gains in precious metals like silver. The US Dollar Index is currently seen falling to 97.842 from a high of 98.277 on Friday.

US bond yields fell sharply last week, making non-yielding assets like silver increasingly attractive. This is one reason why silver briefly surged towards the 80 area.

In terms of industrial demand, a recent report indicated that a global silver supply deficit persists. Demand from the industrial, AI, and solar panels sectors reached a record high in 2026, making silver prices more volatile and potentially higher.

The market is also monitoring the Fed's leadership transition. Speculation regarding a pause in interest rate hikes amid the war has provided positive sentiment for non-yielding assets like silver.

Silver is expected to move within a reasonable range of $70 to $88. The nearest support is around $77.00 to $78.00. Resistance is around $81.30 to $82.00. This forecast could be wrong.

XAGUSD D1

The silver price movement on the daily timeframe is currently below the upper band line. The Bollinger Bands draw a flat channel with narrow band spacing, indicating range movement and relatively low volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) near the middle band draws a slightly descending channel, with the price above the line indicating a weak uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) below the lower band draws an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is pointing at 58, and the VB Low at 35. The 23-point difference reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is pointing at 46 with a flat channel, indicating a greater bearish bias than bullish bias.

The RSI Price Line is pointing at 57, with an ascending channel crossing the MBL and TSL from below, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is pointing at 49, with an ascending channel crossing the MBL from below, indicating an uptrend.

XAGUSD H4

The silver price on the H4 timeframe is between the middle and upper band lines. The Bollinger Bands draw an ascending channel with very wide band spacing, indicating bullish sentiment and high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) between the lower and middle bands draws an ascending channel, with the price well above the line, indicating a strong uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) below the 50-day moving average (MA) draws an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High is at 73, and its VB Low is at 41. The 32-point difference reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 57 within an ascending channel, indicating a greater weighting of bullish sentiment than bearish sentiment.

The RSI Price Line is at 61 within a descending channel, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 63 within a descending channel, indicating a downtrend.

 

[radex78]

Gold prices rise above $4,700 amid a fragile ceasefire

The XAU/USD pair is exhibiting unique movement dynamics. Gold prices have risen above the $4,700 level amid a fragile ceasefire, with tensions escalating again in the past day or two. Gold is currently around $4,733 on the FXOpen chart, up from a low of $4,647.

President Donald Trump officially rejected Iran's counterproposal on May 10-11. Trump called the proposal completely unacceptable. Iran is demanding a gradual lifting of the US naval blockade, continues to demand greater control in the Strait of Hormuz, and rejects several key US conditions regarding its nuclear program.

The latest situation shows that the conflict has not completely subsided. The US rejected Iran's proposal. Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz remain high, and global energy shipping flows are still disrupted. Markets are starting to worry that a prolonged conflict could trigger a new energy crisis.

The current gold market doesn't automatically rise sharply during the Iran war because investors also buy USD as a safe-haven. Rising oil prices due to supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have fueled inflation concerns, and the Fed is likely to remain hawkish. The continued dominance of the US dollar tends to put pressure on gold prices.

Investors are currently adopting a wait-and-see approach, awaiting the release of US CPI and PPI data this week. This data could trigger a potential breakout or a deeper correction in gold. Despite short-term pressure, global central banks' demand for gold remains strong, providing a cushion against drastic falls.

Brent rose above $104 amid concerns about energy supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Technically, the conflict increases safe-haven demand, but high oil prices tend to increase inflation, prompting the Fed to maintain high interest rates for longer. Rising oil prices and inflation concerns have kept US bond yields high, preventing the USD from weakening significantly, limiting gold's gains.

Gold prices are currently in a volatile phase after previously correcting from their all-time highs. XAUUSD price movement is expected to be within a reasonable range of $4,600 to $4,800. The nearest support is estimated at $4,680, with the next target around $4,650. The nearest resistance is around $4,760 to $4,800. A breakout of this level will open up a further target of around $4,850. This forecast could be wrong. Volatility is expected to remain high during the headline war and ahead of US inflation data.

XAUUSD D1

On the daily timeframe, the gold price is currently above the middle band line. The Bollinger Bands draw a flat channel with moderate band spacing, indicating range-bound movement with moderate volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) between the middle and upper bands draws a descending channel, with the price slightly below the line, indicating a weakening downtrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the lower band, drawing an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High is at 56, and its VB Low is at 34. The 32-point difference reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 45 with an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment is outweighed by bearish sentiment.

The RSI Price Line is at 53 with a horizontal channel, indicating sideways movement.

The Trade Signal Line is at 48 with an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend.

XAUUSD H4

The gold price on the H4 timeframe is currently below the upper band. The Bollinger Bands draw a flat channel with moderate band spacing, indicating range-bound movement with moderate volatility.

The 50-point moving average (MA) between the lower and middle bands represents an upward channel; prices above the line indicate an uptrend. The 200-point moving average (MA) below the lower band represents an upward channel, indicating longer-term bullish sentiment.

The TDI indicator's VB High is at 72, and its VB Low is at 36. The 36-point difference reflects volatility on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 54 with a flat channel, indicating a greater bullish bias than bearish bias.

The RSI Price Line is at 57 with a flat channel crossing the MBL and TSL from the downside, indicating sideways movement after an uptrend pause.

The Trade Signal Line is at 53 with a descending channel, indicating a downtrend.

 

[radex78]

WTI crude oil prices approach $100, driven by geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East

XTIUSD price volatility is showing high volatility driven by geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East. WTI crude oil has now reached $99.28 from $95.40 on the FXOpen chart. Oil prices are currently trending strongly bullish due to several key factors.

The naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz has caused the market to lose approximately 100 million barrels of supply per week, according to Saudi Aramco, which is the main driver of the price surge.

OPEC+, in its latest meeting on May 3, 2026, agreed to adjust production to maintain market stability. They remain vigilant and ready to respond if supply disruptions worsen. Oil and gold became preferred assets as global stock indices fell due to concerns about war-induced energy inflation.

The US-Iran tensions were highly volatile in May, with contradictory signals. Although President Donald Trump expressed optimism in early May that Iran would agree to abandon its nuclear weapons program, recent talks reportedly reached a deadlock.

Trump called the current ceasefire fragile after the US rejected Tehran's latest proposal. Iran is demanding an end to the naval blockade and the complete lifting of sanctions. The US is reportedly preparing a plan to escort commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, increasing the risk of direct military confrontation if friction occurs in the waterway.

The US government estimates that disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz will continue until the end of May, keeping global supply tight. Reuters reported that global supply losses reached 10-10.8 million barrels per day due to conflicts and export disruptions in the Middle East. These tensions have also driven up US inflation due to soaring energy and fuel prices.

The US has begun releasing its Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to help stabilize the market. The US government announced on May 11-12 the release of an additional 53.3 million barrels of oil from the SPR to energy companies such as Exxon, Marathon, and Trafigura. This move comes as export disruptions in the Middle East and the risk of a Strait of Hormuz closure have pushed oil prices sharply higher.

The price of WTI crude oil today is estimated to be in a reasonable range of around $93 to $110. As long as the price remains around $99.50, the bias remains bullish. Immediate support is around $97.80, with a strong support target around $93. Resistance is around $103.50, with intermediate resistance targets around $106 to $108. This forecast could be wrong. Current market sentiment is prone to sudden spikes due to geopolitical headlines.

XTIUSD D1

The WTI oil price is above the middle band line on the daily timeframe. The Bollinger Bands draw a flat channel with wide spacing, indicating range movement with high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) below the middle band draws an upward channel; prices above the line indicate an uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the lower band, drawing a slightly upward channel, indicating weak bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High is at 66, and its VB Low is at 43. The 23-point difference reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 55 with a downward channel, indicating a greater bullish bias than bearish bias, suggesting a potential downside.

The RSI Price Line is at 52 with a channel sloping upward, indicating an uptrend transition.

The Trade Signal Line is at 52 with a downward channel, indicating a weakening downtrend.

XTIUSD H4

On the H4 timeframe, the WTI oil price is currently below the upper band. The Bollinger Bands draw an ascending channel with wide band spacing, indicating bullish sentiment and high volatility.

The VB High TDI indicator is pointing at 60, and the VB Low is pointing at 29. The 31-point difference reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is pointing at 45 with a flat channel, indicating a greater weighting of bears than bulls.

The RSI Price Line is pointing at 60 with an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is pointing at 57 with an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend.

 

[radex78]

GBPUSD under moderate bearish pressure due to hotter US inflation data

The GBPUSD major currency pair indicates that the market is entering a crucial phase. The current price is around 1.35237 on the FXOpen chart. GBP weakened after US inflation data showed a hotter-than-expected figure. The price fell from a high of around 1.35511 to a low of 1.34848 before rebounding to around 1.35243.

Today's main focus is on the release of UK data, which could determine the Bank of England's next policy direction and the continued impact of US inflation on Fed interest rate expectations.

Today is a crucial day for GBP due to the release of UK GDP data for Q1 2026. The market is awaiting the Q1 GDP growth figure, which is predicted to be +0.6%, a significant jump compared to Q4 2025's growth of only 0.1%.

The Bank of England (BoE) is currently maintaining interest rates at 3.75% and is tending to be hawkish, as inflation is still projected to rise to 3.1%-3.3% for the remainder of the year due to high global energy prices. If today's GDP figure falls below 0.5%, the GBP could come under significant pressure as markets begin to doubt the BoE's ability to raise interest rates amid a slowing economy. Conversely, a strong figure would strengthen the GBP's position against the USD.

The USD is currently strong as markets pare back expectations of a Fed rate cut after US PPI data rose 1.4% month-on-month and annual inflation reached its highest level since 2022. This has pushed USD yields up and supported the US dollar.

The GBP is being pressured by UK political uncertainty and volatility in the UK bond market. However, the GBP is currently receiving some support from expectations that the BoE will likely maintain a tighter policy stance, as energy inflation due to the Iran conflict remains high.

Today's market focus is on UK GDP, US Retail Sales, and Jobless Claims, as well as US-Iran geopolitical developments and oil prices. Rising oil prices could support US inflation and the Fed's hawkish stance.

Today, GBPUSD is expected to be within a reasonable range of around 1.34300 to 1.36200. Immediate support is around 1.34800, with the next support target around 1.33500. Immediate resistance is around 1.36200, with the next resistance target around 1.37800. This forecast could be wrong.

GBPUSD D1

The current price is below the lower band line on the daily timeframe. The Bollinger Bands form a horizontal channel with relatively narrow band spacing, indicating range-bound movement and relatively low volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) below the lower band draws a horizontal channel, while the price is above the line, indicating an uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) below the lower band draws a horizontal channel, indicating sideways movement over a longer period.

The TDI indicator's VB High is at 65, and its VB Low is at 42. The 23-point difference reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 54 with a horizontal channel, indicating a greater bullish bias than bearish bias.

The RSI Price Line is at 50, with a descending channel crossing the TSL and MBL from the upside, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 55, with a descending channel crossing the MBL from the upside, indicating a downtrend.

GBPUSD H4

On the H4 timeframe, GBPUSD is currently above the lower band. The Bollinger Bands draw a descending channel with wide band spacing, indicating bearish sentiment and high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) below the middle band draws a descending channel; prices below the line indicate a downtrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) below the lower band draws an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is at 63, and the VB Low is at 35. The 28-point difference reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 49 with a descending channel, indicating a greater weighting of bears than bulls.

The RSI Price Line is at 42, with an ascending channel crossing the TSL from the downside, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 39 with a slightly ascending channel, indicating a weak uptrend.

 

[radex78]

New Zealand Dollar Weakens Amid Domestic Economic Concerns

The NZDUSD currency pair has trended toward bearish candles over the past three days, indicating a weakening New Zealand dollar against the US dollar. The current price of NZDUSD is around 0.59105 on the FXOpen chart, down from a peak of around 0.59910 established on May 6, 2026.

The New Zealand dollar is under significant pressure due to a combination of weak domestic data and a strengthening US dollar.

This week's RBNZ report highlighted concerns about rising business input costs due to surging global energy prices. This has increased the cost of living, squeezing people's purchasing power.

The annual inflation expectations survey jumped sharply from 2.59% to 3.41%. While this would normally lead to an interest rate hike, the market is more focused on the sharp decline in GDP growth projections from 2.03% to 1.58% and the rising unemployment rate.

The market is beginning to split over whether to raise interest rates to curb inflation or to maintain the policy stance to support slowing economic growth. This uncertainty makes the NZD less attractive as a risk asset.

On the other hand, US economic data remains quite resilient. Recently released US retail sales data showed a 0.5% increase, exceeding expectations, indicating that the US consumer remains very strong despite inflationary pressures.

The April US CPI released earlier this week showed a 3.8% year-on-year figure, higher than the 2% target. This reduces the likelihood of an imminent Fed interest rate cut, which automatically maintains the strength of the USD.

Meanwhile, the meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping provided new hope for the global situation. Although no major agreement was reached, several key points emerged.

Both sides agreed to maintain the stability of US-China relations and avoid open escalation of conflict, particularly over Taiwan and the Iran war. For China, the Taiwan issue remains a red line, and it has warned of potential conflict if the US increases military support for Taiwan.

Trump and Xi discussed cooperation in trade, artificial intelligence (AI), energy, and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. China is reportedly interested in increasing US oil purchases to reduce dependence on the Middle East, although no final agreement has been reached. Xi also signaled that China would not supply weapons to Iran, something the US viewed positively.

The market considered the meeting's moderately positive outcome, despite the lack of a major agreement, but US-China tensions eased slightly. The USD and stock markets stabilized due to easing trade war concerns. However, relations between the two countries are still considered fragile because Taiwan remains a major flashpoint, and the US technology and chip rivalry remains unresolved. Many major trade tariffs remain unresolved, and the Iran conflict continues to exert global geopolitical pressure.

The forecasted price movement for NZDUSD is around 0.3850 to 0.5940. Immediate support is around 0.5890, with a further support target around 0.5850. Immediate resistance is around 0.5940, with a further resistance target around 0.5975. This forecast could be wrong.

NZDUSD D1

On the daily timeframe, NZDUSD is near the middle band line. The Bollinger bands have drawn a slightly ascending channel with narrow band spacing, indicating fading bullish sentiment and decreasing volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) is above the lower band, drawing a flat channel; the price is above the line, indicating an uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is below the 50-day moving average (MA) and indicates sideways movement over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is pointing to 65, and the VB Low is pointing to 39. The 26-point difference reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is pointing to 52 with an ascending channel, indicating a greater weighting of bullishness over bearishness.

The RSI Price Line is pointing to 51 with a descending channel crossing the TSL and MBL from above, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line is pointing to 56 with a channel sloping downwards, indicating a downtrend.

NZDUSD H4

On the H4 timeframe, NZDUSD is currently near the lower band. The Bollinger Bands draw a descending channel with wide band spacing, indicating bearish sentiment and increased volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) near the middle band draws an ascending channel, with prices below the line indicating a downtrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the lower band, drawing an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is at 63, and the VB Low is at 39. The 24-point difference reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 51 within a descending channel, indicating bullishness outweighs bearishness, potentially leading to a decline.

The RSI Price Line is at 37, with a descending channel crossing the TSL from above, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 42 within a descending channel, indicating a downtrend.

 

[radex78]

WTI oil prices reached above $100 amid persistent Hormuz supply risk premium

US WTI oil continued its rally on Friday, reaching 101.50, according to the FXOpen chart. The XTI/USD (WTI Oil) pair remains influenced by developments in the US-Iran conflict and the condition of oil distribution channels in the Strait of Hormuz. Market sentiment remains bullish, but volatility remains high.

The fundamental drivers of XTIUSD today are the lack of a clear resolution to the US-Iran conflict, while market concerns remain about disruptions to Middle Eastern oil supplies. The Strait of Hormuz remains a key focus for the energy market, as it handles approximately 20% of global oil.

The US government and its allies have begun releasing strategic oil reserves to stem price spikes, preventing the oil rally from becoming too extreme. Rumors of new diplomacy and the possibility of a gradual reopening of shipping lanes have led to occasional profit-taking in the market.

Global energy inflation data have begun to rise due to high oil prices, supporting them.

The US-Iran conflict remains unresolved. Escalation reportedly flared again after a fragile ceasefire. Iran announced it would implement formal tolls in the Strait of Hormuz. The US military reported that the naval blockade of Iranian ports remains tight, with the US diverting 78 commercial vessels and crippling four ships to pressure Iran.

Intelligence reports this weekend indicated that the US and Israel are finalizing intensive preparations for renewed airstrikes on Iran, possibly as early as this week. Military options include bombing vital infrastructure, deploying ground commandos, and even plans to seize Kharg Island, a major oil export hub in the Persian Gulf.

President Trump issued a stark warning that Iran faces a very difficult time if a peace agreement is not reached soon. Meanwhile, Pakistani Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi, a Pakistani envoy, recently arrived in Tehran to try to re-establish the stalled negotiations.

The threat of an attack on Kharg Island has sparked concerns about a massive risk premium. If it were to occur this week, it would further choke global oil supplies, triggering an exponential price surge. The UAE's withdrawal from OPEC on May 1st to allow for flexible independent production still leaves uncertainty about the oil cartel's unity in responding to the global crisis.

XTIUSD is currently trading in a psychologically high area, with commodity forecasters like Polymarket and Robinhood predicting the price will remain above $100 this week. WTI oil prices are estimated to be in the $95.00 to $106.00 range. The nearest support is around $98.50, with the next around $95.00. WTI oil resistance is estimated at around $102.00 to $106.00. This forecast could be wrong.

XTIUSD D1

The WTI oil price on the daily timeframe is between the middle and upper band lines. The Bollinger Bands draw a slightly ascending channel with wide band spacing, indicating bullish sentiment and high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) below the middle band draws an ascending channel, while the price is above the band, indicating an uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the lower band, drawing a slightly ascending channel, indicating weak bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High is at 65, and its VB Low is at 43. The 23-point difference reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 54 with a horizontal channel, indicating a greater weighting of bullishness over bearishness.

The RSI Price Line is at 53, with an ascending channel crossing the TSL from below, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 52 with an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend.

XTIUSD H4

The WTI oil price on the H4 timeframe is currently near the upper band line. The Bollinger Bands draw an ascending channel with slightly wider band spacing, indicating bullish sentiment and increasing volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) near the lower band draws a flat channel, with the price above the line, indicating an uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) below the 50-day moving average (MA) draws a flat channel, indicating sideways movement over a longer period.

The TDI indicator's VB High is at 65, and its VB Low is at 43. The 22-point difference reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 54 within an ascending channel, indicating a greater weighting of bullish sentiment than bearish sentiment.

The RSI Price Line is at 65 within an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 62 within an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend.

 

[radex78]

Silver is attempting a bullish consolidation after sharp pressure last week

Silver prices are attempting to recover after sharp pressure last week. Silver is currently hovering around $77,658 on the FXOpen chart. Previously, silver plummeted to around $73,868 due to a strengthening US dollar and rising US bond yields. Silver's also driven by reports of potential progress in US-Iran peace talks. Rumors suggest the US may ease crude oil sanctions if Iran freezes its long-term nuclear program.

The positive momentum from the 90-day tariff reduction between the US and China provides a cushion for silver, keeping the ratio within a tight range.

Current market focus is on the direction of the Fed's interest rate, the movement of the USD and US bond yields, and global industrial demand, particularly from China and the green energy sector.

Current market expectations suggest the Fed will remain hawkish, keeping the USD and US bond yields relatively strong. This puts pressure on silver as a non-yielding precious metal.

However, silver remains supported by very strong industrial demand from solar panels, EVs, AI, data centers, and electronics. The global supply deficit persists for the sixth consecutive year.

Recently, a UBS report significantly cut its annual silver investment demand projection from 400 million ounces to 300 million ounces. UBS predicts the global deficit will narrow to 60-70 million ounces. This is due to increased mine supply and a 19% year-on-year reduction in silver use in the photovoltaic industry due to perceived overpriced silver prices.

Heating US inflation data put pressure on silver. The April CPI, which came in at 3.8% above expectations, coupled with a surge in the PPI, has led the market to reduce expectations for a Fed rate cut this year.

According to CME FedWatch, the probability of the Fed holding rates is at 66.8%, while bets for an additional rate hike before the end of the year have jumped to 32.2%. This triggered a strengthening of the US dollar index (DXY) and US Treasury yields, which structurally put pressure on non-yielding assets like silver.

Today, the silver price is estimated to be within a reasonable range of $75.20 to $79.80. The nearest support is around $76.60, with the next target around $75.20. The nearest resistance is around $79.66, with the next target around $81.20. This forecast could be wrong.

XAGUSD D1

The silver price on the daily timeframe is near the middle band line. The Bollinger Bands draw a flat channel with wide band spacing, indicating range movement and high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) near the middle band draws a flat channel, while the price is close to the line, indicating sideways movement. The 200-day moving average (MA) below the lower band draws an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is at 63, and the VB Low is at 38. The 25-point difference reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 51 with a horizontal channel, indicating a greater weighting of bullishness than bearishness.

The RSI Price Line is at 47, with a descending channel crossing the TSL from above, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 59, with a downward-sloping channel, indicating a downtrend.

XAGUSD H4

The silver price on the H4 timeframe is between the middle and lower bands. The Bollinger Bands draw a descending channel with wide band spacing, indicating a downtrend and high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) near the middle band draws an ascending channel; prices below the line indicate a downtrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) near the current price draws a horizontal channel, indicating sideways movement over a longer period.

The TDI indicator's VB High is at 83, and its VB Low is at 23. The 50-point difference reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 53 with a descending channel, indicating a greater bullish than bearish weighting, potentially leading to a decline.

The RSI Price Line is at 39 with a flat, sloping channel, indicating a fading uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 32 with a sloping channel, indicating an uptrend.

 

[radex78]

GBP/USD shows shifting sentiment ahead of CPI data release

Recent GBPUSD price movements have been under pressure from high volatility. After briefly holding at a key psychological level, recent price dynamics indicate a shift in sentiment, triggering a price correction in GBP.

Last week, GBPUSD tended to be bearish. The price touched a low of 1.33022, then rebounded to 1.34495, and is currently around 1.33989 on the FXOpen chart. Today, the market is focused on the release of key UK inflation data. The Office for National Statistics will release the latest inflation data (CPI). Given that inflation climbed to 3.3% the previous month due to soaring fuel prices stemming from the Middle East conflict, today's release is crucial confirmation of the Bank of England's policy direction. High domestic and service sector inflation has forced the Bank of England to maintain high interest rates for longer, which theoretically supports the sterling but also slows economic growth.

The UK political crisis is also a market focus, becoming a stumbling block for the GBP. Prime Minister Keir Starmer faced immense pressure to resign after the Labour Party's landslide defeat in local elections against Reform UK. Speculation that Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham would take over the leadership fueled fiscal concerns. Burnham's plans to cut income taxes and increase debt for defense spending prompted foreign investors to dump government bonds, forcing yields to soar and depressing the pound sterling due to the risk premium.

Meanwhile, the US dollar regained strength, as solid US economic data and the narrative of US exceptionalism triggered a reversal in the US dollar index (DXY). Global risk-off sentiment due to political uncertainty in Europe prompted market participants to return to the USD as a safe-haven.

The Fed's policy in 2026 is the main anchor supporting the rise of the US Dollar Index, and is also the reason why GBPUSD has struggled to rebound to its highs. After implementing a series of interest rate cuts at the end of last year, the Fed's stance has shifted to a more cautious stance this year due to the heating up of the global macro environment. The aggressive move to continue raising interest rates was forced to be halted as the US economy faced two major headwinds. US inflation crept up to 3.3% due to the conflict with Iran, which disrupted energy prices, and the impact of US-imposed trade tariffs. As inflation drifted away from its ideal 2% target, the Fed opted for a defensive stance. Although the US labor market is not particularly strong, it is still considered resilient enough to prevent the Fed from rushing to cut interest rates.

Technically, GBPUSD recently broke down after failing to hold above the 1.3550 zone. However, buyers are attempting to resist around the psychologically strong 1.3300 level, which is a crucial defensive line for GBPUSD. If broken, a deeper decline towards the intermediate support area around 1.31500 to 1.31400 is likely. The daily range is expected to fluctuate between 1.3300 and 1.34300. This forecast could be wrong.

GBPUSD D1

On the daily timeframe, GBPUSD is currently near the lower band line. The Bollinger Bands have drawn a descending channel with wide band spacing, indicating bearish sentiment and high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) above the lower band has drawn a flat channel, while prices below the line indicate a downtrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) near the 50-day moving average (MA) has drawn a flat channel, indicating sideways movement over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High is at 65, and its VB Low is at 42. The 23-point difference reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 54 with a flat channel, indicating a greater bullish bias than bearish bias.

The RSI Price Line is pointing at 43 with a curved channel to the upside, indicating a reversal of the uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is pointing at 44 with a descending channel, indicating a downtrend.

GBPUSD H4

On the H4 timeframe, GBPUSD is slightly above the middle band line. The Bollinger Bands are drawing a descending channel with narrowing band spacing, indicating bearish sentiment and decreasing volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) is above the upper band, drawing a descending channel; prices are well below the line, indicating a downtrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is below the 50-day moving average (MA), drawing an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High is at 53, and its VB Low is at 19. The 34-point difference reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 36 with a horizontal channel, indicating a greater weighting of bears than bulls.

The RSI Price Line is at 43 with a horizontal channel, indicating sideways movement.

The Trade Signal Line is at 45 with a horizontal channel, indicating sideways movement.

 

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AUD/USD Recovers Ahead of FOMC Minutes

The AUD/USD commodity currency pair exhibited very interesting dynamics, with both currencies supported by hawkish sentiment from their respective central banks. Awaiting the FOMC minutes, the Australian dollar recovered to around 0.71744 after plunging to 0.70869 on the FXOpen chart.

The Australian dollar received a strong boost following the release of the RBA's May 2026 Statement on Monetary Policy. Due to oil supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, Australian domestic inflation spiked sharply. The headline CPI for March was 4.6%, the highest since 2023. The RBA estimates that inflation will only peak at 4.8% in mid-2026.

To dampen inflation expectations, the RBA has raised its benchmark interest rate to 4.35%. The RBA's internal projections and market expectations now predict the cash rate will continue to climb to 4.70% by the end of 2026.

Although the cost of living has hit consumer sentiment, Australia's labor market remains very tight, with unemployment at 4.3% and GDP growing at 2.6% annually. This provides the RBA with room to remain aggressive.

On the other hand, the US dollar is resilient thanks to solid economic performance, supported by booming investment in the AI sector. US core inflation (Core PCE) unexpectedly surged to an annual rate of 4.3% at the start of the year. In addition to the effects of energy prices, US inflation was driven by rising prices for computer memory components due to AI and tariffs on goods.

The FOMC has so far maintained the cash rate range of 3.50%-3.75% throughout 2026. Recent economic data has made policymakers reluctant to commit to any imminent easing. Market expectations for an interest rate cut have been pushed back to the end of the year, December 2026.

The market is currently awaiting the release of the FOMC minutes. This document will summarize the proceedings of the Fed's internal meeting on April 28-29, which proved to be far more tense than Jerome Powell's press conference. This release is crucial because it outlines the biggest internal rift since 1992, just before Kevin Warsh was officially inaugurated as Fed Chair on May 15.

The fundamental battle for AUDUSD today is the RBA's interest rate hike versus persistently high US interest rates. Because Australian commodities are positively impacted by rising global raw material prices, the AUD tends to have a short-term tactical advantage against the USD. However, geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East could at any time trigger a risk-off movement, benefiting the USD as a safe-haven.

Based on the latest closing price and current market volatility, AUDUSD is estimated to be within a reasonable range of around 0.70950 to 0.72100. The nearest support is around 0.7095, with the next target around 0.7050. The nearest resistance is around 0.71850, with the next target around 0.7210. This forecast could be wrong.

AUDUSD D1

The Australian dollar is currently below the middle band line on the daily timeframe. The Bollinger Bands are drawing a flat channel with wide band spacing, indicating sideways movement with high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) is below the lower band, drawing a slightly ascending channel, while the price is above the line, indicating an uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the lower band, drawing an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High is at 68, and its VB Low is at 47. The 21-point difference reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 58 with an ascending channel, indicating a greater bullish bias than the bearish bias.

The RSI Price Line is at 48 with a channel sloping upward, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 51, with a descending channel crossing the MBL from above, indicating a downtrend.

AUDUSD H4

On the H4 timeframe, AUDUSD is above the middle band line. The Bollinger Bands draw a flat descending channel with wide spacing, indicating fading bearish sentiment and high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) above the upper band draws a descending channel, with prices below the line indicating a downtrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) above the middle band draws an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High is at 58, and its VB Low is at 20. The 38-point difference reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 39 with a descending channel, indicating a greater weighting of bears than bulls.

The RSI Price Line is at 50 with a flat ascending channel, indicating a fading uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 41 with an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend.