Daily Analysis Forex Mix

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GBP/JPY rises amidst unique policy divergence

The GBP/JPY cross pair rose during the trading session on Wednesday, December 17, 2025, drawing a bullish candlestick, extending the previous bullish. The price formed a high of 208.381, a low of 207.056, and a close of 208.362.

The current strengthening of the GBP against the JPY occurs amid a unique market situation due to opposing policy divergences, which could trigger high volatility in the GBP/JPY.

On the GBP side, the market currently expects the Bank of England (BoE) to cut interest rates by 25 bps to 3.75% from 4.00%. This expectation has been fueled by the latest UK economic data, which shows weak GDP in October and rising unemployment. Subdued inflation provides room for the BoE to cut ahead of Christmas. If the rate cut is confirmed with a pessimistic tone regarding the UK economy, the GBP could potentially weaken.

At the same time, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is expected to raise interest rates, indicating a more hawkish stance, as recent solid Japanese economic data reinforces expectations that the BoJ intends to normalize its monetary policy. Market sentiment toward the yen has gained additional strength as it is the only major currency with an upward trend in interest rates, while other countries, such as the UK and the US, have begun to cut rates. A BoJ rate hike could trigger a strengthening of the JPY, which would put downward pressure on the GBP/JPY pair.

Recent UK economic data shows that UK CPI fell to 3.2% in November, lower than market expectations, reinforcing expectations that the BoE will cut interest rates, which will be released today or soon.

UK economic output contracted, and employment indicators weakened, with the unemployment rate rising. This reinforces dovish pressure on the GBP. Consequently, the fundamental bias is bearish, as expectations of a BoE rate cut typically weaken the GBP against other major currencies.

The JPY has fundamentally weakened in recent years due to low Japanese yields, but expectations of a BoJ interest rate hike could provide temporary technical support. As a result of this policy direction, sentiment is slightly bullish on the JPY if the market interprets the interest rate hike as a meaningful policy change, potentially strengthening it against the GBP.

The GBP tends to be under pressure due to expectations of interest rate cuts and weak economic data. The JPY has the potential to gain strength from expectations of a BoJ interest rate hike. In the short term, overall fundamentals are bearish for GBP/JPY, barring any global market risks or unexpected news that supports the GBP.

Although not directly impacting GBP/JPY, traders will also be watching US economic data today, including unemployment claims and inflation.

GBPJPY price range forecast: lower support is around 206,600 - 207,200, and upper resistance is around 208,500 - 209,100. If the Bank of England (BoE) cuts interest rates as expected, selling pressure could break through support. Conversely, if the BoJ does not raise interest rates as expected, the JPY could weaken again.

GBPJPY D1

The GBPJPY cross pair is currently moving above the middle band on the daily timeframe. The Bollinger Bands are drawing an ascending channel with wide band spacing, indicating bullish sentiment and high market volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) near the lower band is drawing an ascending channel, with the price well above the line, indicating an uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the lower band, drawing an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is pointing at 69, and the VB Low is pointing at 48. The 21-point difference reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is pointing at 59 with an ascending channel, indicating greater bullishness than bearishness, indicating potential upside.

The RSI Price Line is pointing at 61 with a curved channel to the upside, indicating a reversal of the uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is pointing at 53 with a flat channel, indicating a sideways market.

GBPJPY H4

The GBPJPY cross pair on the H4 timeframe is currently near the upper band. The Bollinger Bands are drawing a descending channel, with the band spacing appearing to be narrowing, indicating bearish sentiment and decreasing volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) is above the middle band, drawing an ascending channel, with the price slightly above the line, indicating an uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the lower band, drawing an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is pointing at 68, and the VB Low is pointing at 36. The 32-point difference reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is pointing at 52 within a descending channel, indicating greater bullishness than bearishness, suggesting potential downside.

The RSI Price Line is pointing at 58, with an ascending channel crossing the TSL and MBL from below, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is pointing at 49 within an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend.

 

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USD/JPY Steady Ahead of BoJ Interest Rate Decision

The USD/JPY pair formed a doji candle during the trading session on Thursday, December 19th. Despite forming a bearish candle, the open and close prices differed only by tens of pips. The price opened at 155.662, a high of 155.977, a low of 155.285, and closed at 155.584.

The key fundamental analysis focus today is the BoJ interest rate decision. The market is currently anticipating a 25 basis point rate hike from 0.50% to around 0.75%. If the BoJ does raise interest rates and makes a firm, hawkish statement regarding further hikes in 2026, the Japanese yen could potentially strengthen sharply, putting downward pressure on the USD/JPY.

Recent comments by BoJ officials ahead of the meeting indicate a marked shift towards a hawkish policy stance. In his final speech and comments, Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that the chances of sustainably achieving the inflation target have gradually increased. He emphasized that if economic and price data align with the Bank of Japan's forecasts, they will continue to raise interest rates.

Ueda also highlighted that Japan's strong wage growth trend provides a foundation for stable household consumption, despite rising prices.

The Tankan survey results showed strong optimism, with business sentiment among major Japanese manufacturers reaching its highest level in four years. Senior BoJ officials noted that despite concerns about global trade policy, Japanese companies are seeing resilient demand, particularly in the high-tech sector. This gives the BoJ the green light to raise interest rates without overly worrying about stifling economic growth.

Officials' comments implied that today's hike would not be the last, but they also noted that the pace of future rate hikes will depend heavily on the economy's response to the hike. The BoJ remains mindful of financial market volatility, particularly extreme fluctuations in the yen, as these affect import costs and inflation in Japan.

Meanwhile, the Fed recently cut its interest rate by 0.25% from 4.00% to around 3.75%. Although the yield differential still favors the USD, the downward trend in US interest rates and rising interest rates in Japan is narrowing the gap, which, in theory, weakens the USD/JPY. Current market sentiment is experiencing an unwinding of the carry trade, meaning the closing of Yen borrowing positions for risky assets, which is adding selling pressure on USDJPY, ahead of the BoJ announcement.

Currently, the DXY, which measures the USD's performance against six major currencies, is slightly up at 98.441. US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which was delayed due to the government shutdown, was released earlier with lower-than-expected results. Annual CPI fell to 2.7%, lower than the 3.1% forecast. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, fell to 2.6%, its lowest level since 2021.

Unemployment claims, part of the labor market data, show stable but slowing conditions. There were 224,000 new applications, a decrease of 13,000 from the previous week's 237,000.

Today's USDJPY price forecast: strong support around 150.00, with immediate support around 152.50. Strong resistance around 157.48, and immediate resistance around 156.00.

USDJPY D1

On the daily timeframe, the USDJPY pair is moving below the middle band. The Bollinger Bands are drawing a horizontal channel with slightly narrowed band spacing, indicating the market is moving within a range and volatility has subsided.

The 50-day moving average (MA) is below the lower band, drawing an ascending channel, with the price above the line, indicating an uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the lower band, drawing a slightly ascending horizontal channel, indicating a longer-term sideways market trend.

The TDI indicator's VB High is 71, and its VB Low is 48. The 23-point difference reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is 59 with a descending channel, indicating a greater bullish bias than bearish bias, suggesting a potential downside.

The RSI Price Line is 52 with a channel sloping upwards, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is 51 with a descending channel, indicating a downtrend.

USDJPY H4

The USDJPY pair is currently moving between the middle and upper band lines on the H4 timeframe. The Bollinger Bands are drawing a flat channel with wide band spacing, indicating a sideways market and high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) between the middle and upper bands is drawing a flat channel, with the price below the downtrend line. The 200-day moving average (MA) near the middle band is drawing a flat channel, indicating a sideways market over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is pointing at 60, and the VB Low is pointing at 31. The 29-point difference reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is pointing at 46 with a flat channel, indicating a greater bearish bias than bullish bias.

The RSI Price Line is pointing at 53 with a horizontal channel crossing the TSL from above, indicating a sideways market.

The Trade Signal Line is pointing at 57 with a horizontal channel, indicating a sideways market.

 

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Silver prices hit new all-time highs again and again.

Silver prices surged again on Friday, December 19th, reaching new all-time highs for the umpteenth time in 2025. Silver formed a bullish candle with a short wick at the bottom. The price formed a high of 67,444, a low of 64,444, and a close of 67,166.

The XAGUSD instrument's movement showed interesting dynamics, with prices near all-time highs. The phenomenal gold price increase throughout 2025 was around 135%, driven by various crucial factors. This figure has surpassed gold, which recorded an increase of around 65%.

Investment demand, whether for ETFs, futures contracts, and investor speculation, is currently very strong and will be one of the main drivers of price increases throughout 2025. Market momentum remains high as investors seek safe-haven assets and diversification.

Expectations of a Fed interest rate cut, following the third consecutive cut in mid-December, have put downward pressure on the US dollar, which in turn has supported other assets, including silver.

Silver demand remains high in industry. Silver is widely used in technologies such as solar panels, electric vehicles (EVs), and artificial intelligence (AI) semiconductors, creating strong real demand, not just from the investment side. Massive use in solar panels and EVs could create a physical supply deficit, which in turn supports silver prices.

Silver is listed as a critical mineral in the US, highlighting concerns over tight supplies and increasing strategic interest in this metal. China's plans to restrict silver exports starting in 2026 and global inventories at a decade-low have fueled concerns about shortages.

As Christmas approaches, trading volumes are predicted to decrease (low liquidity). This could potentially lead to two scenarios: price consolidation or sharp volatility despite low volumes.

Several analysts warn that silver's rally has been too sharp and may experience a short-term correction, especially if investor momentum is stifled and technical indicators point to overbought conditions.

Today's economic calendar also lacks significant high-impact economic data, allowing market movements to be dominated by technical sentiment and trading volume.

The silver price forecast ranges: key support is around 61.33 - 65.45, with key resistance around 68.65 - 70.00. If a technical correction occurs, the price could fall to around 65.45. A breakout of this level would target strong support around 61.33. If the rally continues, the resistance target is around 68.65. If the price breaks through this level, the next resistance target is around 70.00, which would become the next psychological level if momentum continues.

XAGUSD D1

Silver's movement on the daily timeframe is currently below the upper band. The Bollinger Bands draw an ascending channel with wide band spacing, indicating bullish sentiment and high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) below the middle band draws an ascending channel; prices are well above this line, indicating a strong uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) well below the lower band draws an ascending channel for a longer period.

The TDI indicator's VB High is 82, and its VB Low is 48. The 34-point difference reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is 65 with an ascending channel, indicating a greater bullish weighting than bearish weighting, indicating potential upside.

The RSI Price Line is 75 with a horizontal channel, indicating a sideways market in overbought conditions.

The Trade Signal Line is 75 with a horizontal channel, indicating a sideways market.

XAGUSD H4

The silver price on the H4 timeframe is currently near the upper band line. The Bollinger Bands draw an ascending channel with moderate band spacing, indicating bullish sentiment and moderate volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) near the lower band draws an ascending channel; prices above the line indicate an uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) well below the lower band draws an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is at 76, and the VB Low is at 50. The 26-point difference reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The RSI Price Line is at 69, with an ascending channel crossing the TSL and MBL from downside, indicating an uptrend near the overbought level.

The Trade Signal Line is at 61, within an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend.

 

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Oil prices rebounded sharply amid a major bearish trend.

WTI crude oil prices rose sharply on Monday, December 22, 2025, drawing a long-bodied bullish candle with almost no shadow. Oil prices formed a high of 57.99, a low of 56.48, and a close of 57.86.

The surge in oil prices coincided with escalating tensions between the United States and Venezuela, adding a moderate geopolitical risk premium to the oil market. US action against a Venezuelan tanker triggered short-term risk, temporarily suppressing prices. However, the general market showed a weaker reaction than in the past due to a global supply surplus.

Global oil demand is expected to grow moderately in 2025-2026 due to ongoing, albeit somewhat sluggish, economic activity. The IEA estimates that global oil demand will continue to rise in 2026, although not drastically. There are also indications that Chinese demand is increasing, but not enough to absorb the strength of global supply.

Global oil supply remains abundant, US production remains high, and OPEC+ and non-OPEC producers continue to increase output, putting bearish pressure on prices.

WTI oil is priced in USD, and the performance of the US dollar can also influence oil prices. A weak USD supports oil because it lowers prices against other currencies. The DXY is currently down again at around 98.266 from a high of 98.749.

Market sentiment towards oil is quite mixed; bullish news such as tensions between the US and Venezuela could lift oil prices. However, medium-term sentiment remains bearish due to the surplus and forecasts of falling prices until 2026.

The run-up to the Christmas and New Year holidays typically thins trading volume, leading to low liquidity, which can lead to sharper price volatility even without major news. Market focus is on the release of weekly API and EIA inventory data, which may show a decline in stocks due to the surge in fuel consumption during the Christmas and New Year holiday season.

Current fundamental estimates suggest that XTIUSD oil is under short- to medium-term bearish pressure due to oversupply and subdued market demand. However, geopolitical risks could trigger a short-term rally, leaving the oversupply structure unchanged.

Today's oil price forecast: nearest support is around 56.40, with strong support around 55.00, the recent low. Nearest resistance is around 58.50-59.40, an upside target if momentum is strong. Strong resistance is around 60.00, the psychological level of the 50-day moving average.

XTIUSD D1

The price of WTI crude oil on the daily timeframe is currently moving just below the middle band line. This area often serves as a consolidation zone for price movements. The Bollinger Bands draw a descending channel with wide spacing, indicating bearish sentiment and moderate volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) above the middle band draws a descending channel, indicating a bearish sentiment; the price remains below the downtrend line. The 200-day moving average (MA) above the upper band draws a descending channel, indicating bearish sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is at 53, and the VB Low is at 37. The difference of 16 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 45 with a flat channel, indicating a greater bearish weight than bullishness.

The RSI Price Line is at 45, with an ascending channel crossing the TSL from below, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 40, with a channel curving upward, indicating a reversal of the uptrend.

XTIUSD H4

WTI crude oil prices are currently moving near the upper band line on the H4 timeframe. The Bollinger Bands are drawing an ascending channel with widening band spacing, indicating bullish sentiment and rising volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) above the middle band is drawing a flat descending channel; prices above the line indicate an uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) above the upper band is drawing a sloping descending channel, indicating weak bearish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High is 64, and its VB Low is 23. The difference of 41 reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is 43 with an ascending channel, indicating greater bearishness than bullishness, indicating upside potential.

The RSI Price Line is 67 with an ascending channel crossing the TSL from the bottom, indicating an uptrend near the overbought zone.

The Trade Signal Line is 61 with an ascending channel, indicating a strong uptrend.

 

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The Canadian Dollar Hits a Five-Month High Amid Broad USD Weakening

The USDCAD pair's movement in two consecutive bearish candlesticks indicates further strengthening of the Canadian Dollar against the US dollar. On Tuesday, the USDCAD pair drew a long-bodied bearish candlestick with almost no shadow. The price formed a high of 1.37512, a low of 1.36883, and a close of 1.36939.

The Canadian Dollar, also known as the Lonnie, has reached a five-month high against the USD, causing the USDCAD pair to fall to a 22-week low. The USD weakened across the board ahead of the holiday season, triggering a broad market recovery for other currencies like the CAD.

Canadian GDP data released on December 23 showed the economy contracted 0.3% in October 2025, the largest decline in three years. This contraction stemmed from weaker output in the goods and services sectors. Preliminary data indicated a small rebound of 0.1% in November, although the October contraction was larger than expected. A GDP contraction could technically put pressure on the CAD, but the market reacted positively to signs of recovery and the anticipated November rebound, especially if oil prices also rose.

At its December 10, 2025, meeting, the Bank of Canada (BoC) decided to maintain interest rates at 2.5%, stating that the current rate was approximately the appropriate level because inflation was near target and economic activity reflected resilience. The BoC's statement, which reflected confidence that the economy was relatively resilient and inflation near target, created expectations that they would not cut interest rates quickly, technically supporting the CAD relative to other currencies.

Canada relies on oil exports, which are a significant source of foreign exchange, and rising oil prices support the CAD's strength. Crude oil is currently trading around 58. The current oil price has risen from the previous low of 55. Although oil prices are considered weak, the negative impact of oil prices is limited because the USD is also weakening.

The Christmas and New Year holiday period could impact the market. Liquidity is expected to be very low, and some large entities have already closed their positions, so movement may be sideways or there could be a sudden spike if there is any unexpected news.

The CAD's strengthening was also influenced by the weakening USD. The US Dollar Index (DXY) shows the USD trending lower near the 98 level, down from higher levels a few weeks ago. This means the USD is weakening against six other major currencies. This decline occurred amid market expectations that the Fed would continue to loosen monetary policy going forward, which generally puts pressure on the USD. At its December 10, 2025, meeting, the Fed decided to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, targeting a range of 3.50% to 3.75%, marking a phase of monetary easing. The Fed's shift toward easing tends to weaken the USD compared to previous tighter policy.

The US economy grew 4.3% annualized in Q3, higher than expected and reflecting strong domestic demand. However, consumer confidence declined sharply, reaching its lowest level in months due to tariffs, inflation, and a weakening labor market.

Today's market will be anticipating the Department of Labor's jobless claims data, with expectations of 223,000, up from 224,000 previously. Although considered a lagging economic indicator, the unemployment number is an important indicator of the overall economy, as consumer spending is linked to labor market conditions.

USDCAD price range forecast: key support is around 1.3570 - 1.3430, and key resistance is around 1.3870. Today's range is estimated at 1.3680 - 1.3790.

USDCAD D1

The Canadian dollar is currently above the lower band on the daily timeframe. The Bollinger Bands are drawing a descending channel with wide spacing, indicating bearish sentiment and high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) is above the middle band, drawing a downward-curving channel; prices are well below the line, indicating a strong downtrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) near the middle band is drawing a descending channel, indicating bearish sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is pointing at 63, and the VB Low is pointing at 25. The difference of 38 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is pointing at 44 with a descending channel, indicating greater bearishness than bullishness, suggesting a potential downside.

The RSI Price Line is pointing at 30 with a downward-curving channel crossing the TSL, indicating a downtrend entering oversold levels.

The Trade Signal Line is pointing at 32 with an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend.

USDCAD H4

The Canadian dollar is near the lower band on the H4 timeframe. The Bollinger Bands appear to be expanding, with the upper and lower bands moving away from each other, indicating increased market volatility with a bearish trend.

The 50-day moving average (MA) near the middle band draws a descending channel; prices below this line indicate a downtrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) well above the upper band draws a descending channel, indicating bearish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High indicator is at 60, and its VB Low indicator is at 27. The difference of 33 reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 43 with a flat channel, indicating a greater weighting of bears than bulls.

The RSI Price Line is at 25 with a descending channel, indicating a downtrend in the oversold level.

The Trade Signal Line is at 28 with a descending channel, indicating a downtrend.

 

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GBP/JPY Falls Slightly Ahead of Christmas, Near 2025 High

Throughout 2025, the GBP/JPY cross pair experienced significant price fluctuations. Market volatility was high for this pair, but the JPY weakened more against the GBP. Ahead of Christmas, the pair drew a small-bodied bearish candle with small shadows at the top and bottom of the candle. The price formed a high of 211.100, a low of 210.043, and a close of 210.396.

Today is Christmas Day, when most major financial markets, including London and New York, are closed. This condition creates the possibility of very low liquidity, which could trigger widening spreads or unexpected price movements if there is shocked news.

The main sentiment driving the GBP/JPY pair in 2025 is the contrasting monetary policies between the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan. The Bank of England recently cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75% in mid-December. However, the BoE's stance was considered hawkish due to the tight vote, indicating caution regarding further cuts due to the UK inflation shock. This supported the strengthening of the GBP.

According to data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the UK's annual CPI slowed to 3.2% in November, a significant decrease from 3.6% in October. This result was also lower than market expectations, which projected a figure of 3.4%-3.5%. Core CPI was around 3.5%, down from 3.7% in the previous month. Despite the decline, this inflation figure is still considered somewhat sticky.

The decline in inflation was driven by slower price increases in the energy sector thanks to government cost cuts, as well as easing price pressures in the retail sector ahead of the new year. Despite the slowdown in inflation, average wage growth remained high at 3.5%-7.7% depending on the sector. This is a concern for the Bank of England (BoE), as high wages can fuel future inflation.

Inflation in the services sector remains a key focus for the BoE, as it remains above its 2% target, indicating that domestic pressures have not completely dissipated.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) recently raised interest rates to 0.75% at its December meeting, the highest level in 30 years, marking a shift from its ultra-loose policy. Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama also warned of possible intervention if the yen weakens too sharply on speculative grounds. This tends to cause the JPY to strengthen in the last week of December as a corrective measure.

The Japanese government under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi recently released its tax reform framework for fiscal year 2026 on December 18th. The government raised the tax-free income threshold from 1.03 million yen to 1.78 million yen. This aims to stimulate domestic consumption amid inflation, but will also reduce state tax revenues by around 7-8 trillion yen.

To fund increased defense capabilities, the government will raise the income tax surtax by 1%.

Japan remains one of the countries with the highest debt-to-GDP ratio in the world, at over 250%. With the 0.75% interest rate hike, government debt servicing costs are starting to balloon. It is estimated that interest costs could double if the 10-year bond yield reaches 2.5%.

The Japanese government is still providing massive stimulus to mitigate the impact of rising living costs, which makes it difficult to reduce the budget deficit in the short term.

Japan's current fiscal situation indicates a transition to a more normal economy with positive interest rates. For GBP/JPY, this means the potential for further yen appreciation remains open, especially if UK inflation continues to decline while Japan continues to tighten policy.

The relatively faster-than-expected decline in inflation in the UK is likely to put pressure on the GBP, as it reinforces speculation that the Bank of England will continue to cut interest rates in early 2026. When combined with the strengthening of the JPY due to the 0.75% interest rate hike, fundamentally there is bearish pressure on GBP/JPY at the end of this year.

Forecasted GBP/JPY price range: main support is–ound 207.00 - 208.00. Main resistance is–ound 211.30 - 212.00. The estimated range for the Christmas holiday period is likely to be limited to the 209.76 - 211.20 area.

GBP/JPY D1

The GBPJPY pair is currently moving below the upper band on the daily timeframe. The Bollinger Bands are drawing an ascending channel with moderate band spacing, indicating bullish sentiment with moderate volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) near the lower band is drawing an ascending channel, while the price is well above the line, indicating an uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the lower band, drawing an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High is 71, and its VB Low is 53. The18-point difference reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is 62 within an ascending channel, indicating greater bullishness than bearishness, suggesting upside potential.

The RSI Price Line is 68 with a downward-curving channel, indicating a downtrend transition.

The Trade Signal Line is 66 within an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend.

GBPJPY H4

The GBPJPY pair is near the lower band on the H4 timeframe. The Bollinger Bands appear to be contracting, with the upper and lower bands closing, indicating a sideways market and low volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) is below the lower band, drawing an ascending channel; prices above the line indicate a weakening uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the 50-day moving average (MA) drawing an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High indicator is at 76, and its VB Low indicator is at 45. The 31-point difference reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 61 within an ascending channel, indicating greater bullishness than bearishness, suggesting upside potential.

The RSI Price Line is at 51, with a descending channel crossing the MBL and TSL from above, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 53, with a descending channel crossing the MBL from above, indicating a downtrend.

 

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Why did silver rise more than gold throughout 2025?

Towards the end of 2025, the performance of precious metals like gold and silver was impressive. Gold and silver price charts showed a more bullish sentiment pattern. In fact, the upward performance of gold and silver appeared particularly strong towards the end of 2025. Within five weeks, gold and silver prices showed strong increases. Silver's price increase, in particular, appeared more aggressive.

Gold price

Gold prices were around $4,080 per troy ounce on December 24-25, 2025. Compared to the start of the year, gold prices have risen 70% year-to-date.

Silver price

Silver prices are currently around $71.81 per troy ounce on December 24-25, 2025. Silver prices have risen approximately 140% year-to-date since the beginning of 2025.

This analysis concludes that silver prices have risen more than gold, with gold recording a 70% increase and silver recording a 140% increase over the same period. Traders may wonder why the increase in silver prices is twice as aggressive as the increase in gold prices.

There are several possible explanations that could shed light on this situation, generally driven by a combination of industrial and financial market factors, while gold is more dominant as a safe-haven asset.

The surge in demand for silver stems from industrial factors, due to its use in solar panels, electric vehicles, chips, and electronics. Global energy transmission has driven a sharp increase in real demand for silver, while gold has virtually no industrial function.

The second factor is the silver supply deficit. Silver mine production tends to stagnate, while reserves are dwindling. Many silver mines are byproducts, meaning they are not the primary source of gold. This results in a supply deficit, driving price increases more aggressively.

Another factor is the price leverage effect. Silver is known as leveraged gold; during a bull market, silver typically rises 2-3 times faster than gold. Silver's high volatility provides the opportunity for greater upside.

Another factor is the potential for investor rotation from gold to silver. After gold rises first, investors seek alternative assets that are less expensive in nominal terms, which is why silver is cheaper. This causes the gold-to-silver ratio to fall, leading to an influx of funds into silver.

The speculative and liquidity factors of silver and gold also make sense. The silver market, smaller than gold, is easily swayed by speculative funds when hedge funds and traders enter, accelerating the upward momentum.

Conclusion

In summary, demand for safe-haven gold is stronger than silver, but moderate. Silver is supported by very high industrial demand, while industrial demand for gold is relatively low. Gold price volatility is lower than silver price volatility. However, gold's potential for growth is more stable and less aggressive than silver's.

Gold's rising performance is due to global uncertainty and interest rate policy, while silver's rise is higher due to bullish sentiment, coupled with industrial demand and a supply deficit.

What are the prospects for gold and silver's growth in 2026? Will their gains continue?

Many analysts still predict the upward trend in gold prices will continue into 2026, citing persistently high demand from central banks, expectations of a Fed interest rate cut, and persistent geopolitical uncertainty. Gold is expected to maintain positive momentum, although its gains are likely to be more moderate than in 2025.

Many analysts also predict silver will remain positive due to its dual demand for safe-haven assets and industrial needs. Many analysts predict silver will continue to rise in 2026, and some even see the potential for further outperformance.

Which is safer, gold or silver?

Many analysts believe that gold and silver still offer potential profits from market volatility. However, gold may still be a safer choice due to its lower volatility, its perceived safe-haven status and its widespread purchase by central banks, its greater stability during economic and geopolitical crises, making it suitable for preserving wealth or protecting capital.

Meanwhile, silver is considered riskier than gold because its high volatility can cause prices to fluctuate rapidly. Because silver is influenced by the industrial sector, investors need to monitor the demand cycle in this sector. A smaller and more volatile market, silver is often a speculative asset seeking faster growth.

 

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What is the reason for silver's record-breaking performance?

Silver's price performance towards the end of 2025 has been outperformed. The prices surged to an all-time high on Friday, December 26, 2025. Silver recently reached a new record at 79,318. On Friday, silver drew a long-bodied bullish candle, forming a high of 79,318, a low of 72,476, and a close of 79,156.

Fundamentally, this increase was supported by a combination of a supply deficit, rising industrial demand, geopolitical uncertainty, and global monetary policy.

Some main factors influencing silver prices today: The silver market is experiencing a supply deficit, estimated to reach 280-300 million ounces for the 2026 projection. China's policy of restricting silver exports is a major catalyst for global concerns.

The XAG/USD pair, representing silver and the US dollar, is closely linked to Fed sentiment and the performance of the US dollar. Although US GDP growth in the third quarter was stronger than expected at around 4.3%, market expectations remain tilted towards a more accommodative Fed policy in 2026. The US Dollar Index (DXY) was seen weakening around the 98 level, which automatically boosted the price of USD-denominated commodities.

Currently, demand for silver from the industrial sector is also increasing, along with the development of cleaner energy technologies. The surge in silver's use in solar panels, AI infrastructure, and electric vehicles continues to keep silver's underlying price high, surpassing its traditional role as a safe-haven asset.

Given today's date between Christmas and New Year's, trading volumes tend to be thinner, but volatility in precious metals often increases in conditions of thin liquidity if there is sudden, supportive news.

From a geopolitical perspective, the main news supporting silver is the trade war and China's rhetoric. At the end of 2025, China, the world's largest exporter, implemented a policy to restrict the export of silver and other critical minerals. This policy was a response to trade tariffs imposed by the US. Because the global technology industry is heavily dependent on supplies from China, this move raised concerns about a physical supply shortage in the international market, driving up silver prices.

Renewed geopolitical tensions in the Caribbean, particularly between the US and Venezuela, also fueled market concerns. Recent sanctions and the blockade of oil tankers involving the two countries prompted investors to shift to precious metals. Silver, with its smaller market value, often experiences higher volatility than gold, with a higher percentage of gains due to this conflict.

At the end of 2025, the US officially added silver to the list of critical minerals. Geopolitically, this move demonstrates that silver is now viewed as a national defense asset, due to its extensive use in military technology as an electronic component in missiles and radar. This elevated status has increased buying interest from institutions seeking to secure physical reserves.

Dedollarization is also a catalyst for silver prices. Although gold remains a favorite for central banks, the trend of dependence on the US dollar is beginning to spread to silver. Russia recently announced plans to begin incorporating silver into its strategic reserves. This move was followed by several other BRICS members, providing new validation for silver as a monetary asset, not just an industrial metal.

The ongoing conflict in the Middle East. The tensions in Ukraine are other geopolitical factors affecting safe-haven assets. Whenever an attack escalates or diplomatic failure occurs, silver prices tend to surge due to its nature as a safe-haven asset, protecting it from global financial systemic risks.

More specifically, the reasons XAGUSD set a new all-time high today are: Expectations of a Fed rate cut, making silver more attractive as a non-yielding asset. Skyrocketing industrial demand for AI technology, solar panels, and electric vehicles. Physical supply deficits and low inventories. Safe-haven sentiment amid geopolitical uncertainty. A relatively weak dollar supports the rise of USD-denominated commodities.

Silver price range forecast, based on the latest data. Key resistance is in the $80.00-$82.00 range, which serves as a psychological target after breaking through $79.70. Key support is in the $72.86-$72.19 range, which is predicted to be a retest area if a technical correction occurs, leading to profit-taking. Strong support is estimated at $65.55, which serves as a safe limit for the weekly bullish trend.

XAGUSD D1

The current silver price is outside the upper band line, reflecting a sharp surge in silver prices. The Bollinger Bands draw an ascending channel with widening band spacing, where the upper and lower bands are moving away from each other, reflecting bullish sentiment and increased volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) above the lower band draws an upward channel; the price is well above the line, indicating a strong uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) below the lower band draws an upward channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is pointing at 85, and the VB Low is pointing at 53. The 30-point difference reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is pointing at 69 within an upward channel, indicating greater bullishness than bearishness, and potential upside.

The RSI Price Line is pointing at 85, with an ascending channel crossing the TSL from below, indicating an uptrend in the overbought level.

The Trade Signal Line is pointing at 80 within an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend.

XAGUSD H4

The silver price on the H4 timeframe is currently above the upper band, indicating an upward price surge. The Bollinger Bands draw an ascending channel, with the upper and lower bands spaced apart, reflecting bullish sentiment and increased volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) near the lower band draws an ascending channel; prices well above this line indicate a strong uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) well below the lower band draws an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is at 83, and the VB Low is at 58. The 25-point difference reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 70 within an ascending channel, indicating greater bullishness than bearishness, and potential upside.

The RSI Price Line is at 84, with an ascending channel crossing the MBL and TSL from below, indicating an uptrend at overbought levels.

The Trade Signal Line is at 78 within an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend.

 

[radex78]

A look back at the gold price throughout 2025 and its outlook for 2026

2025 was one of the most historic years for precious metals like gold and silver. The US dollar gold price (XAU/USD) recorded a remarkable rally, increasing by approximately 71% throughout 2025, driven by a combination of monetary policy, geopolitical tensions, and dedollarization.

In January-February, the gold price in USD fluctuated between $2,650 and $2,850, marking the initial accumulation phase as investors began to enter the market amid signs of a US economic slowdown and expectations of a Fed interest rate cut.

In March-May, the estimated spot gold price ranged from $2,900 to $3,200. This month, the price broke through the psychological $3,000 level for the first time. This coincided with the release of inflation data, which remained high, but US bond yields declined.

Gold prices in June-August ranged from $3,300 to $3,650. The gold rally accelerated sharply due to escalating global geopolitical conflicts and aggressive buying by central banks, particularly those in developing countries.

In September-November, gold prices hovered around $3,700 to $4,100. During this period, gold entered a super cycle, with demand for gold ETFs surging dramatically to its highest level since 2009.

In December, gold prices reached a record high, moving in the range of $4,300-$4,550. Driven by global uncertainty and the Fed's interest rate cut towards the end of 2025, gold broke its all-time high of $4,550 per troy ounce.

In summary, gold's trend throughout 2025 is expected to be very strong, with relatively rapid growth from the beginning of the year. Key driving factors include investor demand for safe-haven assets, declining US interest rate expectations, and increasing global geopolitical and economic risks.

Gold Outlook for 2026: The majority of global analysts, including Goldman Sachs and the World Gold Council, maintain a bullish or optimistic outlook on gold's performance in 2026, although the increase is expected to be more stable than the wild surge throughout 2025.

Goldman Sachs estimates that gold prices could reach $4,800 per troy ounce by December 2026, with an estimated increase of around 10%-15% from the end of 2025.

HSBC and several other analysts are even targeting gold prices of up to $5,000 per troy ounce by 2026, especially if geopolitical tensions remain and safe-haven demand is high. Some analysts' long-term strategies even suggest a further increase of between $5,000 and $6,000 if reserve diversification trends and investor demand continue to increase.

The main driving factors for gold optimism include the low interest rate cycle. The Fed is expected to continue monetary easing in 2026, which has historically benefited non-yielding assets like gold. Concerns about the ballooning US debt, which has reached 100% of GDP, have caused investors to lose confidence in fixed currencies and shift to gold. Global central banks are expected to continue reducing the portion of US dollar reserves, replacing them with gold as the primary reserve asset.

Although the gold outlook remains optimistic for 2026, risks remain a concern for investors. After a 70% increase in 2025, there is a possibility that large investors will sell gold to cash in profits, which could trigger a temporary correction. Gold's volatility, above the unprecedented $4,500 level, means daily movements could be highly volatile. An unexpected increase in interest rates by the Fed or a renewed strengthening of the US dollar could put downward pressure on gold prices. Tightening of trading margins by institutions like the CME could trigger short-term volatility or pressure.

Analysts generally project a bullish outlook for gold in 2026, but with a more moderate pace of growth compared to 2025. The general price target is estimated to be between $4,000 and $5,000 per troy ounce, depending on interest rate dynamics, inflation, geopolitics, and central bank demand.

XAU/USD D1, end of December 2025

The price of gold is hovering around $4,357 near the middle band. Gold prices corrected sharply on December 29th due to profit-taking. The Bollinger Bands draw an ascending channel with wideband spacing, indicating bullish sentiment and high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) is above the lower band, drawing an ascending channel; the price is above the uptrend line. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the lower band, drawing an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is at 78, and the VB Low is at 48. The 30-point difference, in the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 63 with a horizontal channel, indicating a greater bullish bias than bearish bias, and potential for sideways movement.

The RSI Price Line is at 54, with a descending channel crossing the TSL and MBL from above, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 72, with a downward sloping channel, indicating a downtrend transition.

XAU/USD H4, end of December 2025

The gold price is below the middle band. The Bollinger Bands are drawing a descending channel, with the upper and lower bands diverging, indicating bearish sentiment and increased volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) is below the middle band, drawing an ascending channel; prices below this line indicate a downtrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the lower band, drawing an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High is at 86, and its VB Low is at 32. The 54-point difference reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 59 with a descending channel, indicating a greater bullish bias than bearish bias, suggesting a potential downside.

The RSI Price Line is at 36 with a horizontal channel, indicating a sideways market.

The Trade Signal Line is at 36 with a channel curving upwards, indicating an uptrend

 

[radex78]

EUR/USD after entering the second day of the new year 2025

Time continues to pass, day after day, week after week, month after month, and year after year. We are now on the second day of 2026, leaving behind 2025 and all its history. At the end of 2025, EUR/USD drew an indecision candlestick, resembling a Doji, indicating a somewhat balanced demand and supply tension. EUR/USD formed a high of 1.17590, a low of 1.17200, and a close of 1.17448, opening at 1.77443.

The EUR/USD price movement over the last five days of 2025 has tended to draw lower lows, suggesting a slight strengthening of the USD against the euro. However, the trendline still shows an upward channel, reflecting the pair's uptrend since November.

Today, January 2, 2026, trading volume is expected to begin recovering after the New Year holiday. Some banks are still closed for the holiday, so trading volume is expected to have not fully recovered, potentially resulting in low liquidity.

Fundamentally, the EURUSD movement in early 2026 will be influenced by the divergence in monetary policy between the Fed and the ECB, as well as geopolitical dynamics.

As we enter 2026, the market is focused on the recently released minutes of the December FOMC meeting. The Fed has begun its interest rate cut cycle, but remains vigilant about inflation, which may rise again due to new US tariff policies. The USD's performance outlook is predicted to be a challenging transition phase. The USD now faces structural and policy pressures that could limit its appreciation.

The market projects 2026 as the year when the Fed funds rate will move to a neutral level. Some analysts predict the rate will end at around 2.9% by the end of 2026. Continued rate cuts from 2025 would typically reduce the USD's appeal to investors seeking high yields, potentially triggering a moderate weakening of the USD against other currencies.

The US fiscal situation will be a concern for investors. The projected deficit, which remains high at over 6% of GDP, is exerting long-term pressure on the exchange rate. Concerns about political pressure on the Fed's independence regarding its low interest rate policy to finance the country's debt could erode the US dollar's credibility among global investors.

Continued efforts by other economic blocs, such as the BRICS+, to use local currencies in international trade are beginning to show marginal impact, reducing the USD's absolute dominance in global transactions.

The European economy continues to show signs of slowing growth. Germany recently provided a large stimulus package to boost growth. This has provided positive sentiment for the euro in the medium term, but low inflationary pressures in Europe have kept the ECB in an accommodative mode.

Uncertainty regarding US trade or tariff policies and geopolitical tensions continue to drive safe-haven flows to the USD, which could limit significant euro gains.

The current price is around 1.1740, based on year-opening data. A moderate bullish bias is likely if the price can stay above 1.1720, with a short-term target of 1.1800.

Volatility is increase, to increase as the start of the year often sees large-scale position adjustments by large institutions. Market focus will shift to the release of manufacturing data (PMI) from both regions, typically released in the first week of January. Following the long holiday, there is the potential for explosive volatility as liquidity returns to the London and New York markets.

EURUSD price range forecast: nearest support at 1.1710, strong support at 1.1680. Nearest resistance at 1.1800, strong support at 1.1850. The forecast price range may deviate from reality given the often random nature of market dynamics.

EURUSD D1

EURUSD is above the middle band line on the daily timeframe. The Bollinger Bands draw an ascending channel with moderate band spacing, indicating bullish sentiment and moderate volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) near the lower band draws a slight ascending channel; prices above the line indicate an uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) slightly below the lower band draws an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is at 72, and the VB Low is at 42. The 30-point difference reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 57 with an ascending channel, indicating greater bullishness than bearishness, and potential upside.

The RSI Price Line is at 58 with a descending channel crossing the TSL from upside, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 64 with a slight descending channel, indicating a weak downtrend.

EURUSD H4

On the H4 timeframe, EURUSD is below the middle band. Here, the Bollinger Bands draw a descending channel with relatively narrow band spacing, indicating bearish sentiment and relatively low volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) near the middle band draws a horizontal channel; prices below this line indicate a weak downtrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) well below the lower band draws an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is at 67, and the VB Low is at 37. The 30-point difference reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 52 with a descending channel, indicating a greater bullish bias than bearish bias, suggesting a potential downside.

The RSI Price Line is at 41, with a channel sloping upwards, crossing the TSL from downside, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 40, with a descending channel starting to flatten, indicating a weakening downtrend.