Daily Analysis Forex Mix

[radex78]

GBP/USD surges on positive reaction to UK economic policy

The GBPUSD pair surged significantly on Wednesday, drawing a long-bodied bullish candle with almost no shadow. The GBPUSD price formed a high of 1.133533, a low of 1.32072, and a close of 1.33516.

The most notable factor influencing the GBPUSD price surge was the weakening USD. Many market participants are increasingly confident that the Fed will soon cut interest rates, which has reduced US bond yields and the attractiveness of the USD, leading to capital flows shifting to other currencies such as the GBP. With expectations of lower interest rates, the opportunity cost of holding the USD has weakened, providing a relative advantage against the GBP.

This week, there has been positive sentiment towards the UK. Recent fiscal policy announcements and stances have reassured investors that, despite challenges, the market is no longer overly pessimistic about the GBP. With expectations that the Bank of England's monetary policy will remain relatively competitive against the USD, despite projections of lower interest rates, the GBP remains attractive to investors compared to USD-based assets.

Technical factors and market psychology also contribute to the strengthening of the GBP. Some market participants are adopting a risk-on approach, reinforced by improving global risk appetite, as markets become more optimistic about non-USD currencies. Capital flows tend to move away from the safe-haven USD, benefiting the GBPUSD.

Recent US economic data, including that from the manufacturing and labor sectors, is considered less convincing, tending to contraction or slowdown, which has raised expectations of interest rate cuts and put pressure on the USD.

The surge in the GBPUSD pair is largely due to a combination of USD weakness due to expectations of a Fed rate cut and a slowing economy, positive sentiment toward the GBP, market action tending towards risk-on capital flows, and a supportive technical position.

Risk factors to consider next include major fluctuations in US economic data, which could trigger a sudden change in direction or a strong rebound in the USD. Disappointing UK economic data, unexpected monetary policy from the Bank of England (BoE) or the Fed, and changes in global market sentiment could put pressure on major currency pairs like the GBP/USD.

The GBP/USD price range forecast for today is: support is around 1.3250 - 1.3200, and resistance is around 1.338 - 1.3420. Psychological levels are forecasted at 1.32000 and 1.34000; a break above these levels could lead to significant price movements.

GBP/USD D1

The GBPUSD pair is currently above the upper band on the daily timeframe, indicating a sharp breakout. The Bollinger Bands draw an ascending channel with the upper and lower bands diverging, reflecting bullish sentiment and increasing market volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) below the upper band draws a descending channel; the price crossed the line from the downside, indicating a trend transition to an uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) near the upper band draws an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High is 56, and its VB Low is 26. The 30-point difference reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is 41 with a flat channel, indicating a greater bearish weight than bullish weight.

The RSI Price Line is 59 with an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is 54 with an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend.

GBPUSD H4

The GBPUSD pair's price movement on the H4 timeframe is now above the upper band, indicating a strong uptrend. The Bollinger Bands form an ascending channel, with the upper and lower bands moving farther apart, indicating bullish sentiment amid increasing market volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) above the lower band draws an ascending channel, with the price moving away from the line, indicating a strong uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) near the lower band draws a descending channel; this line can act as dynamic support during an upward market movement. There is a golden cross signal on this timeframe.

The VB High TDI indicator is pointing at 72, and the VB Low is pointing at 45. The 27-point difference reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is pointing at 59 with a flat channel, indicating a greater bullish weighting than bearishness.

The RSI Price Line is pointing at 74, with an ascending channel crossing the TSL and MBL from below, indicating an overbought uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is pointing at 63, with an ascending channel crossing the MBL from below, indicating an uptrend.

 

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Swiss Franc Weakens Amid Weaker Swiss Annual Inflation Data

The USD/CHF pair moved higher, drawing a long-bodied bullish candle with almost no shadow, during the trading session on Thursday, December 4th. The USD/CHF price currently forms a high of 0.80387, a low of 0.79910, and a close of 0.80375.

The Swiss Franc's weakening is in line with weaker Swiss inflation data. Data released by the Swiss Federal Statistical Office on Wednesday showed Swiss Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation slowed to 0% year-on-year in November from 0.1% in the previous month. The lower-than-expected inflation reading supports the view that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will maintain accommodative monetary policy. This, in turn, could lead to a weakening of the Swiss Franc against the USD.

Recently, reports emerged that an agreement had been reached between the United States and Switzerland to cut US import tariffs to Switzerland from 39% to 15%. This agreement has boosted Swiss exports, supporting the strengthening of the CHF. On the monetary policy front, inflation in Switzerland has slowed to a four-year low, from the current SNB interest rate of 0%. Due to stagnant inflation, low interest rates, and expectations that the SNB may maintain low rates for a while, the CHF has found support as a safe-haven currency.

Meanwhile, in the US, dovish sentiment toward the Federal Reserve due to US economic risks and weak employment/inflation data has increased the CHF's appeal against the USD. Currently, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the USD's performance against six major currencies, is up to 99.077 from a low of 98.765. The strengthening of the USD comes as US jobless claims, released on Thursday, came in lower than expected, at 191,000, compared to the expected 219,000, below the revised 218,000.

President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that he plans to announce Jerome Powell's replacement as Fed chief early next year. According to Reuters, Kevin Hesset has emerged as the leading candidate for Fed chairman. Hesset is expected to push for more interest rate cuts, which could put selling pressure on the USD against the CHF.

Wednesday's ADP Non-Farm Employment Change report showed that private employers lost 32,000 jobs in November. This figure was lower than the market consensus forecast of 5,000 jobs and marked the largest monthly decline since early 2023.

Today, the market will be paying attention to the core PCE index data, which is likely to be a factor in market volatility. PCE data is important because it is the Fed's favorite inflation measure, and therefore often serves as a key indicator for the market to predict whether the Fed will raise, maintain, or lower interest rates. If PCE data shows higher-than-expected US inflation, it could reinforce market expectations that the Fed will remain hawkish or at least delay rate cuts. This could support USD strength, which in turn puts pressure on the CHF.

While the CHF currently appears to be a safe haven under most circumstances, the SNB's very low interest rate could limit further appreciation against the USD in the long term, especially if the Fed adopts a more aggressive policy stance.

The USDCHF price forecast for today is a lower support range of 0.7925 - 0.7900, with upper resistance at 0.8120 - 0.8260. If US economic data is disappointing or dovish sentiment, the USD could weaken, falling to 0.7980 - 0.7925. If US data is strong or global risk-on, the USD could rise to 0.8035 - 0.8120.

USDCHF D1

The USDCHF pair is currently near the middle band line on the daily timeframe. The Bollinger Bands draw a flat channel with wide band spacing, indicating rangebound movement with high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) is below the middle band, drawing a flat channel, with the price above the line, reflecting an uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well above the upper band, drawing a descending channel, indicating bearish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High is 64, and its VB Low is 40. The 24-point difference reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is 52 with a flat channel, indicating a greater bullish bias than bearish bias.

The RSI Price Line is 48 with a channel sloping upwards, indicating an uptrend transition.

The Trade Signal Line is 51 with a descending channel crossing the MBL from the upside, indicating a downtrend.

USDCHF H4

The USD/CHF pair is between the upper and middle bands on the H4 timeframe. The Bollinger Bands are drawing a descending channel with relatively wide band spacing, indicating bearish sentiment and moderate volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) below the upper band is drawing a descending channel; if the price is below the MA line, it could act as dynamic resistance. The 200-day moving average (MA) near the middle band is drawing an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High is at 54, and its VB Low is at 34. The 20-point difference reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 44 with a flat channel, indicating a greater bearish bias than bullish bias.

The RSI Price Line is at 53 with an ascending channel, crossing the TSL and MBL from the downside, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 42 with an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend.

 

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Silver is bullish amidst support from global supply-demand dynamics.

On Friday, December 6th, the XAGUSD pair rose to reach its previous high of 59,295. The price formed a long bullish candle with a top shadow. Silver opened at 57,100, then rose to a record high of 59,295, a low of 56,586, and a close of 58,276.

Fundamental factors supporting silver prices come from a combination of several factors that collectively create a strong silver price, including: industrial and investment demand, expectations for the Fed's monetary policy, global supply, and global macroeconomic factors.

Demand for silver from the industrial and investment sectors remains high, as silver remains attractive as a precious metal and is also a necessary metal in industries such as electronics, energy, solar panels, and others. Countries with the highest silver demand include China, which consistently leads global silver consumption. The United States is also among the top three global silver consumers. India is also a major silver consumer. Three countries themselves account for approximately 38% of global silver consumption.

China has significant silver demand from the industrial and manufacturing sectors, including electronics, infrastructure, and technology.

In the United States and India, silver demand stems from a combination of industrial demand, jewelry, investment, and consumer use. The growth of industrialization and the development of the technology/energy sector, including renewable energy, in these major countries supports the consumption of metals like silver.

The rise in silver prices is also supported by the Fed's monetary policy. The potential for interest rate easing also supports precious metals like gold and silver. Lower interest rates tend to lower the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like silver.

In terms of supply, silver faces challenges, with availability limited by pressure on global supply/logistics. This supports high silver prices if demand remains solid.

Global macro factors such as USD fluctuations, inflation, geopolitical or global economic uncertainty also influence silver's appeal as a safe-haven alternative asset. Fundamentally, silver is expected to remain bullish in the short to medium term, but remains vulnerable to volatility.

The silver price forecast highlights key support in the range of 54.00-55.00, with short-term support in the range of 57.00-57.50. Key resistance is in the range of 59.33-62.00, and short-term resistance is in the range of 57.50-60.00.

XAGUSD D1

The silver price on the daily timeframe is below the upper band. The Bollinger Bands draw an ascending channel with wide band spacing, indicating bullish sentiment and strong market volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) is below the middle band, drawing an ascending channel, indicating a strong uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the lower band, drawing an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is at 73, and the VB Low is at 42. A 30-point difference reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 57 with a horizontal channel, indicating a greater bullish bias than bearish bias, potentially leading to a sideways trend.

The RSI Price Line is at 69, with a downward-curving channel crossing the TSL from the upside, indicating a price decline, leaving the overbought zone.

The Trade Signal Line is at 72 with an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend.

XAGUSD H4

The silver price on the H4 timeframe is between the upper and middle bands. The Bollinger Bands draw a flat channel with narrow band spacing, indicating a sideways market and low market volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) below the lower band draws an upward channel, with the price well above the uptrend line. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the 50-day moving average (MA), drawing a sloping upward channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is at 81, and the VB Low is at 51. The difference of 30 reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 66 with a flat channel, indicating a greater bullish bias than bearish bias, and potential sideways movement.

The RSI Price Line is at 61 with a downward-curving channel, indicating a downtrend shift.

The Trade Signal Line is at 59 with an upward-curving channel, indicating an uptrend.

 

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USD/JPY rises, market awaits Fed rate decision

The USD/JPY pair rose on Monday, forming a bullish candlestick that crossed the middle band line from the downside. The USD/JPY price formed a high of 155.986, a low of 154.903, and a close of 155.874.

The USD/JPY rose on Monday, supported by a recovery in the USD and rising US Treasury yields, which prompted market repositioning ahead of the Fed's key decision on Wednesday. The DXY is currently at 99.082, slightly above a low of 98.794.

Pressure on the yen is becoming more evident as markets anticipate the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates in the near future. This comes from improving wage data in Japan and expectations that domestic inflation remains quite strong. According to official data, nominal wages in Japan will increase by around 1.9% year-on-year in September 2025. Meanwhile, the national minimum wage was raised to around 1,121 yen per hour in April 2025.

While the yen is strengthening due to the BoJ's hawkish sentiment, the Fed is expected to cut interest rates at its meeting this week, which could put pressure on the USD. According to the Fedwatch tool, the probability of a Fed rate cut is 89.4%, with a forecast of a 25 basis point cut.

The narrowing interest rate differential between Japan and the US has historically made the yen attractive as a relatively higher-yielding asset. On the Japanese economy, despite rising wages and potential monetary normalization, third-quarter data showed an economic contraction, a factor that has made some investors remain cautious about domestic risks in Japan. Weak data like this could weigh on the JPY as it reduces pressure on the BoJ to reverse its dovish policy stance.

The JPY is often considered a safe-haven currency. When global markets experience turmoil or uncertainty, such as a sharp decline in the stock market, investors will seek safe assets that can strengthen the JPY. Current market sentiment appears to be more risk-neutral to risk-on.

External and geopolitical risks are also variables, but their impact currently appears to be less significant than interest rate factors and monetary policy expectations.

However, news of a 7.6 magnitude earthquake that struck northeastern Japan has heightened tensions. According to Nikkei Asia, a tsunami warning was issued for Hokkaido, Aomori, and Iwate. This event immediately weighed on Japanese assets, while the Japanese Yen (JPY) weakened as investors assessed the potential economic impact and the risk that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) might delay an anticipated interest rate hike.

The combination of expectations of an interest rate hike in Japan and expectations of a Fed rate cut, plus a narrowing yield spread, could strengthen the Yen relative to the USD in the short to medium term. This could create downward pressure and open up room for further weakening from current levels.

Today, the US will release data on the economic calendar, as listed on Forexfactory. JOLTS job openings and ADP Weekly Employment Change are potential triggers for volatility. JOLTS is a key economic indicator and often has a significant impact on USD movements. JOLTS job openings are estimated at 7.14 million.

A bullish scenario for USD/JPY is if the BoJ remains dovish and the market perceives Fed rate cut expectations as too aggressive, or if upcoming US data is again strong. A bearish scenario is if interest rate cut expectations strengthen significantly, or safe-haven sentiment towards the JPY suddenly increases due to global uncertainty.

USD/JPY price movement forecast: lower support range 154.50 - 155.00, resistance range 156.30 - 156.80.

USDJPY D1

The USDJPY pair is currently near the middle band line on the daily timeframe. The Bollinger Bands are drawn as an ascending channel with slightly narrowed band spacing, indicating bullish sentiment with decreased volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) near the lower band is drawing an ascending channel, with the price moving away from the line, indicating a strengthening uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the lower band, drawing a flat channel, indicating a sideways market over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is pointing at 71, and the VB Low is pointing at 53. The 22-point difference reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is pointing to 62 with a flat channel, indicating a greater bullish weighting than bearish weighting.

The RSI Price Line is pointing to 54 with a channel sloping upwards, indicating a reversal of the uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is pointing at 54 with a descending channel, indicating a downtrend.

USDJPY H4

The USDJPY pair is currently moving above the upper band on the H4 timeframe, reflecting a strong price increase. The Bollinger Bands are forming a flat channel, with the upper and lower bands moving farther apart, indicating increased market volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) below the upper band is drawing a downward channel; a price above the line indicates a reversal of the uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) near the lower band is drawing an upward channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High is 57, and its VB Low is 29. The 29-point difference reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is 43 within an upward channel, indicating greater bearishness than bullishness, suggesting potential upside.

The RSI Price Line is 60 within an upward channel, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is 53 within an upward channel, indicating an uptrend.

 

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AUD/JPY surges amid risk-on market sentiment

The AUD/JPY currency pair surged on Tuesday, extending bullish sentiment since April 2025. The AUD/JPY low in April was around 86.045 and has since risen to a high of 104.395. Yesterday, the price drew a long-bodied bullish candle with only a small shadow. The price formed a high of 104.395, a low of 103.001, and a close of 104.163. The price surge pushed AUD/JPY out of the upper band.

AUD/JPY mostly acts as a risk/carry indicator: When the yield spread between Australia and Japan widens and risk-on, AUD/JPY tends to rise. Conversely, when risk-off sentiment occurs, where investors seek safe assets, the yen tends to strengthen, and the AUD/JPY weakens. Recently, the spread and correlation with equities have supported a higher AUD/JPY, but warnings are emerging from the bond market, which is beginning to show risk.

The current bullish sentiment in AUDJPY is being influenced by a combination of the RBA's hawkish signals, rising wages in Japan, and risk-on market sentiment driving carry flows.

At its last meeting, the RBA held interest rates at 3.6% but signaled that a cut was imminent and that inflation risks remained. This statement supported the strengthening of the AUD.

The NAB survey showed that Australian business activity weakened slightly, but capacity utilization remained high, which kept inflationary pressures at bay. This means that the policy rate is not automatically easing, supporting the yield differential in favor of the AUD.

In Japan, recent data showed a rise in nominal wages. This wage increase tends to support a slight strengthening of the JPY in the medium term, but the short-term impact depends on risk sentiment.

The yield/carry trade remains the primary driver of the AUD/JPY pair. The RBA's higher interest rate compared to the BoJ's encourages investors to implement carry trades to obtain higher yields. This capital inflow pushes the AUD/JPY price up. The wider the interest rate differential, the stronger the upward momentum.

Geopolitical factors or unexpected events, such as the recent major earthquake in Japan, have triggered temporary safe-haven demand, which could temporarily depress the AUD/JPY, although the fundamental impact is more complex.

The combination of the RBA's hawkish tone and the current yield spread supports bullish sentiment, but risks to the yen as a safe-haven currency and the possibility of a technical correction could limit upside. Catalysts to monitor include Australian economic data releases such as employment, wages, retail sales, jobless claims, and the unemployment rate. Japanese data releases, such as the CPI, along with global bond developments or the Fed's decision, could trigger sentiment that could trigger flash movements.

Risks to be wary of include unexpected changes in the RBA or BoJ's tone, global risk-off shocks that could trigger a surge in yen demand, and the bond market. If global yields move sharply, carry trades could unwind quickly.

The forecast price range for AUDJPY is for key support roughly the 102.40-103.00 range, with key resistance in the 104.40-105.50 range if risk-on sentiment persists.

AUDJPY D1

The AUDJPY pair is currently above the upper band on the daily timeframe. The Bollinger Bands are drawn as an ascending channel, with the upper and lower bands diverging, indicating bullish sentiment and increasing market volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) near the lower band is drawing an ascending channel, with the price well above it, indicating a strong uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the lower band is drawing an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is pointing at 68, and the VB Low is pointing at 52. The 16-point difference reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is pointing at 60 with an upward channel, indicating greater bullishness than bearishness, and potential upside.

The RSI Price Line is pointing at 70, with an upward channel crossing the TSL from the downside, indicating an uptrend entering overbought levels.

The Trade Signal Line is pointing at 64 with an upward channel, indicating an uptrend.

AUDJPY H4

The AUDJPY pair is near the upper band line on the H4 timeframe. The Bollinger Bands are drawing an ascending channel with widening band spacing, indicating bullish sentiment and high market volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) is slightly above the lower band, drawing an ascending channel, and the price is well above the line, indicating a strong uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the lower band, drawing an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is pointing at 75, and the VB Low is pointing at 53. The 22-point difference reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is pointing at 64 within an ascending channel, indicating greater bullishness than bearishness, and potential upside.

The RSI Price Line is pointing at 80, with an ascending channel crossing the TSL from the downside, indicating an uptrend in the overbought zone.

The Trade Signal Line is pointing at 73 within an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend.

 

[radex78]

NZD/USD rises to 0.58247 as the Fed cuts interest rates

The New Zealand dollar, a commodity currency and considered risk-sensitive, surged in Wednesday's trading session, forming a long-bodied bullish candle with small shadows at the top and bottom. The NZD/USD price formed a high of 0.58247, a low of 0.57611, and a close of 0.58155.

The recent rise of the New Zealand dollar against the US dollar from its low a few weeks earlier indicates buying interest in the NZD. This likely stemmed from expectations of the Fed's easing and the RBNZ's increasingly neutral stance.

The Fed recently cut interest rates at its December 2025 meeting to a range of 3.50% - 3.75%. This was the third rate cut in 2025, indicating the Fed's response to economic weakness, particularly the slowing US labor market. But even though they lowered interest rates, the Fed signaled that they would not cut interest rates further quickly, with future decisions depending on inflation data, employment, and general economic conditions.

The impact of the interest rate cut was that the USD weakened against other currencies, including the New Zealand Dollar (NZD). Low interest rates make USD-denominated assets less attractive than before, which can support other currencies.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the performance of the US dollar against six major currencies, showed significant weakness, dropping to its lowest level since November at 98.592.

Another impact of the Fed's interest rate cut is lower borrowing costs in the US - companies and investors may be more willing to borrow/invest, which could encourage capital flows to emerging markets, commodities, and risk-on currencies like the New Zealand Dollar.

However, because inflation remains high and the Fed remains cautious about overly easing, the long-term impact remains dependent on data developments. If inflation rises again, there is a risk that the Fed will have to tighten again.

On the other hand, New Zealand's economy is showing signs of weakness. In the second quarter of 2025, quarterly GDP contracted by 0.9%, much worse than expected. Broadly speaking, the economy has contracted in the last five quarters.

On the labor side, the unemployment rate rose, indicating a weakening labor market. Inflation soared to around 3.0% in the third quarter of 2025, above the RBNZ's inflation target of 1-3%. The RBNZ also stated that there is spare capacity in the economy, meaning that many resources are not yet fully utilized.

The RBNZ will aggressively cut interest rates in mid-2025 to stimulate the economy, such as a 50 basis point cut in October 2025, and in November 2025, they cut the OCR again to 2.25%, the lowest level since 2022. However, after this cut, the massive easing is likely over. They expect the OCR to remain stable over the medium term, meaning no further cuts are expected at this time.

The RBNZ expects inflation to fall by mid-2026 to around 2%, far from the current level of 3%. However, they will remain responsive to the real economy, and subsequent policy may change depending on global and domestic economic conditions.

Forecasted NZDUSD price range: key support range: 0.56200 - 055500, key resistance around 0.5830 - 0.58500. Consolidation or sideways movement range: 0.5700 - 05760.

NZDUSD D1

The NZDUSD pair is currently moving below the upper band line on the daily timeframe. The Bollinger Bands are drawing an ascending channel with the upper and lower bands diverging, indicating bullish sentiment and increasing market volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) is above the middle band, drawing a horizontal channel; the price is well above the uptrend line. The 200-day moving average (MA) is above the upper band, drawing a horizontal channel, indicating a sideways market over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High is 66, and its VB Low is 24. The 42-point difference reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is 45 within an ascending channel, indicating greater bearishness than bullishness, suggesting upside potential.

The RSI Price Line is 67 within an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend approaching overbought levels.

The Trade Signal Line is 64 within an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend.

NZDUSD H4

The NZDUSD pair is currently above the upper band on the H4 timeframe. A significant price surge has caused the New Zealand dollar to break through the 0.57900 level. The Bollinger Bands appear to be expanding, with the upper and lower bands beginning to move apart, indicating potential volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) below the lower band draws an upward channel; prices above the line indicate an uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the lower band, drawing a flat channel, indicating a sideways market over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High is at 69, and its VB Low is at 52. The 17-point difference reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 61 with a flat channel, indicating a greater bullish bias than bearish bias.

The RSI Price Line is at 63 with a channel sloping upwards, indicating an uptrend transition.

The Trade Signal Line is at 56 with a channel sloping upwards, indicating an uptrend.

 

[radex78]

EUR/JPY Extends Gains Amid Cautious ECB Stance

The EUR/JPY cross currency pair on Thursday formed a small-bodied bullish candle with a slight bottom shadow. The EUR/JPY price formed a high of 182.745, a low of 181.875, and a close of 182.654. Throughout 2025, the JPY is likely to weaken against the euro.

Fundamental analysis of the EUR/JPY is largely influenced by monetary policy and the economic outlook between the Eurozone and Japan.

The ECB reportedly maintained a cautious but confident stance. This stance suggests they have not yet fully shifted to a dovish or easing policy, despite the cautious tone. There are reports of optimism in the eurozone economy and positive macroeconomic conditions, which tend to support a more hawkish ECB stance and benefit the Euro. A more hawkish ECB stance, or a delay in easing policy, will maintain the Euro's appeal.

In Japan, speculation of a BoJ interest rate hike is increasing. This speculation is fueled by previous comments from the BoJ Governor, which have revived rate hike bets. This is a factor that could strengthen the JPY.

On the other hand, Japan's reportedly gloomy economic outlook and fiscal concerns have weighed on the JPY, making it the worst-performing currency among the G8. A downward revision to GDP also put pressure on the JPY.

The EURJPY has recently been moving directionlessly despite the ECB's cautious tone and speculation of a BoJ rate hike, demonstrating the power of the cross. The EURJPY had reached a multi-year peak around 182.746 and was struggling near a long-term high around 182.60, driven by the euro's resilience and the JPY's weakness before the BoJ speculation intensified.

Due to two opposing fundamental factors—the relatively better economic outlook for the eurozone versus speculation about a BoJ interest rate hike—the market may exhibit high volatility, but overall, it is likely to consolidate near recent highs, awaiting confirmation from data or subsequent BoJ or ECB announcements.

In addition to internal factors in the eurozone and Japan, global risk sentiment related to the Fed's decision and geopolitical risks can also influence market risk appetite, potentially strengthening the JPY as a safe-haven currency if sentiment worsens.

Today's movements are expected to be sensitive to revised economic data on Eurozone inflation and Japanese retail sales. If European inflation rises, the EURJPY could rise. If Japanese retail sales are particularly strong, the JPY could strengthen, pushing the EURJPY lower.

EURJPY price forecast: Main support is around 178.80 - 179.74 if bearish momentum emerges, and daily support is around 180.00 - 180.70. Main resistance is around 183.00 - 183.68, and daily resistance is around 182.00 - 182.50.

EURJPY D1

The EURJPY price movement on the daily timeframe has recently been near the upper band line. The Bollinger Bands have drawn an upward channel with slightly narrowed band spacing, indicating bullish sentiment and moderate volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) is below the lower band, drawing an ascending channel; price movement away from the line indicates a strong uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the lower band, drawing an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is pointing at 72, and the VB Low is pointing at 54. The 18-point difference reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is pointing at 63 with a flat channel, indicating a greater bullish bias than bearish bias.

The RSI Price Line is pointing at 68 with an ascending channel crossing the TSL and MBL from the bottom, which is starting to flatten, indicating a fading uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is pointing at 63 with an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend.

EURJPY H4

The EURJPY price movement on the H4 timeframe is currently below the upper band line. The Bollinger Bands are drawing an ascending channel, with narrowing band spacing, indicating bullish sentiment and decreasing volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) near the lower band is drawing an ascending channel; the price is well above the line, indicating a strong uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the lower band, drawing an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High is at 77, and its VB Low is at 39. The 38-point difference reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 58 with an ascending channel, indicating greater bullishness than bearishness and upside potential.

The RSI Price Line is at 65 with a channel sloping upward, indicating a reversal of the uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 64 with a horizontal channel, indicating a sideways market.

 

[radex78]

USD/CAD is under bearish pressure due to divergent monetary policies and US dollar weakness.

The Canadian dollar, a commodity currency, tends to strengthen amid divergent monetary policies and US dollar weakness. On Friday, the USD/CAD pair formed a small-bodied bearish candle with a shadow at its top. The price formed a high of 1.37946, a low of 1.37534, and a close of 1.37626.

The Bank of Canada appears to be maintaining a cautious stance, stating that interest rates should remain at their current level in the short term. The BoC held the interest rate 25 basis points (bps) at 2.25%, indicating it is likely to wait for evidence of declining inflation. Meanwhile, the Fed recently cut its interest rate by 25 bps on December 10th to 3.50%-3.75%, meaning the USD/CAD interest rate spread is narrowing and could potentially weaken the USD. However, the Fed remains cautious, as the market is still weighing the prospect of further cuts.

As a commodity currency, the CAD is also influenced by oil price performance, as Canada relies heavily on oil exports. WTI oil prices are currently around $57 per barrel, relatively stable but down from their peak. The weakening oil price is reducing support for the CAD.

The key economic data that traders are focusing on this week is the Canadian Consumer Price Index (CPI), which will be released today, and has the potential to be a catalyst for the Canadian dollar. If the data is stronger than expected, the CAD could strengthen.

The differential between the Fed and the Bank of Canada (BoC) interest rates following the Fed's rate cut remains favorable for the USD, with the Fed funds holding a larger portion than the BoC. Therefore, there is no expectation of dramatic CAD strengthening unless the BoC raises rates or Canadian data is particularly strong.

The US dollar remains under pressure due to weaker-than-expected US employment and growth data. Risk-on sentiment in global markets also often reduces the USD's appeal as a safe-haven currency. The CAD, a risk-sensitive commodity currency, is supported. However, if signs of we economic weakness accompany the cut, the USD as a safe-haven currency may remain strong through volatility in safe-haven flows, a situation currently neutral.

The US dollar index is currently below 100. The DXY reached its lowest level since November at 98.134 from a high of 100.395. The US dollar index is often used as a benchmark to measure the performance of the USD against six other major currencies.

The forecast price range for USDCAD is: key support is around 1.37500 - 1.37000, and key resistance is around 1.38000 - 1.39000. If USD weakness persists and market sentiment continues to digest policy differences, USDCAD could retest and potentially break through the 1.37500 support level and move towards 1.37000. If the USD finds technical support and unexpectedly stronger-than-expected US data arrives, it could push the price back towards 1.38000-1.38700.

USDCAD D1

The Canadian dollar is currently near the lower band on the daily timeframe. The Bollinger Bands appear to be expanding, with the upper and lower bands diverging, indicating bearish sentiment with increasing volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) above the middle band draws a descending channel, indicating a downtrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) between the middle and lower bands draws a descending channel, indicating bearish sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is pointing at 68, and the VB Low is pointing at 30. The 38-point difference reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is pointing at 49 with a downward-sloping channel, indicating greater bearishness than bullishness, suggesting a potential downside.

The RSI Price Line is pointing at 28 with a descending channel, indicating a downtrend in the level of oversold.

The Trade Signal Line is pointing at 32 with a descending channel, indicating a downtrend.

USDCAD H4

The USDCAD pair is near the lower band on the H4 timeframe. The Bollinger Bands are drawing a descending channel with widening band spacing, indicating bearish sentiment and high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) is below the upper band, drawing a descending channel, with the price well below the line, indicating a downtrend.

The TDI indicator's VB High is pointing at 43, and its VB Low is pointing at 15. The 28-point difference reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is pointing at 31 with a flat channel, indicating a greater weighting of bears than bulls.

The RSI Price Line is pointing at 30 with a flat channel, indicating sideways movement in the oversold area.

The Trade Signal Line is pointing at 29 with a flat channel, indicating a sideways market.

 

[radex78]

WTI oil prices fell again below the $57 level.

Oil prices declined yesterday, continuing the downtrend for three consecutive days. The XTIUSD oil price formed a bearish candle and managed to break the lower band of 57, falling below 56.16. WTI oil prices formed a high of 57.49, a low of 56.16, and a close of 56.41.

It should be noted that the XTIUSD pair is highly vulnerable to global risks, particularly those related to oil supply and demand, as well as US monetary policy.

Based on previous reports in early December, OPEC+ likely maintained its production quotas. Technically, this decision is supportive of oil prices because it limits supply. However, concerns about oversupply and optimism about a Russia-Ukraine peace deal are limiting the commodity.

Data on US oil inventories and refinery activity, as reported by the EIA weekly report through December 5, shows refiners are still operating at high levels. The stock and product flow picture should be closely monitored in the next EIA release. Weekly crude oil inventories can still be a driver of short-term volatility.

The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points on December 10, 2025, with a target range of 3.50% - 3.75%. Interest rate cuts typically weaken the USD and tend to support oil prices traded in USD.

Oil prices are vulnerable to unpredictable geopolitical factors. US action against Venezuelan exports creates short-term risks. The US Coast Guard's seizure of an oil tanker off the Venezuelan coast, suppressing Venezuelan exports, creates the risk of regional supply shortages triggering short-term price increases when market disruptions occur. However, the global market remains well-supplied, so the impact could be limited unless a major escalation occurs.

Fundamental oil price drivers include the weakening of the USD following the Fed's rate cut, coupled with disruptions to Venezuelan supply, which could boost speculative oil demand. On the other hand, OPEC+'s production restraint, coupled with reports of a projected surplus in 2026 from several market participants, poses a risk of oversupply if demand weakens. Furthermore, Chinese demand is expected to be stable or not experience a major surge.

If this week's EIA release shows a buildup in crude oil inventories or a decline in refinery processing, it could further pressure the WTI price. Conversely, a decline in inventories or product demand would support prices.

Today, traders are focused on the release of key US economic data that could potentially catalyze USD movements, such as the NFP, unemployment rate, and services PMI.

Oil price forecast: key support range: $52-$55, key resistance range: $60-$65 per barrel. The intraday range is estimated at $55-$60, and the medium-term range is estimated at $52-$65, stemming from a combination of the Fed's interest rate cuts, OPEC+'s output restraint, and the prospect of a surplus in 2026.

XTIUSD D1

The WTI oil price on the daily timeframe is currently moving below the lower band. The Bollinger Bands are drawing a descending channel with the bands appearing to widen, indicating bearish sentiment and rising market volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) is above the middle band, drawing a descending channel; prices below the line indicate a downtrend.

The TDI indicator's VB High is 53, and its VB Low is 39. The 15-point difference reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is 46 with a flat channel, indicating a greater bearish bias than bullish bias.

The RSI Price Line is 38, with a descending channel crossing the TSL and MBL from the upside, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line is 44, with a descending channel crossing the MBL from the upside, indicating a downtrend.

XTIUSD H4

The WTI oil price on the H4 timeframe is currently near the lower band. The Bollinger Bands are drawing a descending channel with wide spacing, indicating a downtrend and high market volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) below the upper band is drawing a descending channel, while prices well below the line indicate a strong downtrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) above the upper band is drawing a descending channel, indicating bearish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High is at 47, and its VB Low is at 30. The 17-point difference reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 39 within a descending channel, indicating greater bearishness than bullishness, and potential downside.

The RSI Price Line is at 29, with a descending channel crossing the TSL from the upside, indicating a downtrend in the oversold level.

The Trade Signal Line is at 33 within a descending channel, indicating a downtrend.

 

[radex78]

Gold consolidates near the psychological level of $4,300

Gold price movement over the past three days has tended to be limited near the upper band line. After reaching a high of $4,353, the price fell again, moving within a range of $4,271-$4,353. Yesterday, gold formed a small bullish candle with short wicks at the top and bottom of the candle. Gold opened at $4,306, with a high of $4,334, and a low of $4,271, closing at $4,310.

Gold prices are influenced by several key factors, such as Fed sentiment and US interest rates. The market continues to monitor signals from the Fed. If US economic data, such as employment and inflation, indicate that the Fed will ease policy in the future, this tends to weaken the US dollar and support gold.

Recent US data released on December 16th showed mixed results. The economy added more people than expected to the labor force in November, but the Unemployment Rate rose to its highest level since 2021. Although the report confirmed further easing, expectations for an interest rate cut in January 2026 remain low at around 25%, as shown by Capital Edge data.

Meanwhile, US retail sales showed that American consumer spending remained slightly strong, with retail sales unchanged in October. The report indicated that people faced higher prices for food, furniture, and various other imported goods due to Trump's tariffs.

Traders will continue to monitor other US data, such as jobless claims due Thursday and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index on Friday.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is also a market focus, as gold is traded in USD. Strengthening or weakening of the USD can influence gold price movements. The DXY is currently rebounding to 98.203 after dropping to 97.869. The DXY sentiment is bearish below its 20-day moving average (MA).

Gold is a safe-haven asset that is also influenced by geopolitical factors. Global geopolitical or economic uncertainty tends to drive demand for gold. Recent developments in the Russia-Ukraine war remain uncertain, although talks stalled after Kyiv drafted a 20-point plan that the Kremlin has not yet accepted, temporarily dampening demand for safe assets.

In talks supported by the US and the European Union, there has been tangible progress toward ending the war. Ukraine is considered willing to abandon its ambitions to join NATO as part of a Western security guarantee, but refuses to cede territory. Western sanctions against Russia remain in place and are impacting the global economy, including the energy and commodity sectors. This conflict is a factor contributing to global market uncertainty.

Conclusion: Gold is currently consolidating around the psychological level of $4,300 and seeking new catalysts. Traders will await US economic data and the market's interpretation of the Fed's monetary policy outlook.

The gold price range forecast, based on technical analysis, indicates consolidation. Major support is estimated to be in the range of $4,270-$4,250, and major resistance is in the range of $4,350-$4,380.

XAUUSD D1

The gold price on the daily timeframe is currently moving near the upper band line. The Bollinger Bands draw an upward channel with relatively wide band spacing, indicating bullish sentiment and moderate market volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) below the middle band draws an upward channel, with the price well above the line, indicating a fairly strong uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) well below the lower band draws an upward channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer timeframe.

The VB High TDI indicator is at 69, and the VB Low is at 47. The 22-point difference reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 58 within an upward channel, indicating greater bullish weighting and potential upside.

The RSI Price Line is at 70 within a flat channel, indicating the price is currently moving sideways at overbought levels.

The Trade Signal Line points to 65 within an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend.

XAUUSD H4

The gold price on the H4 timeframe is currently moving near the middle band line. The Bollinger Bands appear to be contracting, with the upper and lower bands converging, indicating decreasing market volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) near the lower band draws an upward channel, while the price is above the line, indicating an uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) below the lower band draws an upward channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is at 73, and the VB Low is at 44. The 29-point difference reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 59 with an upward channel, indicating greater bullishness than bearishness, and potential upside.

The RSI Price Line is at 55 with a horizontal channel crossing the TSL from below, indicating a sideways market.

The Trade Signal Line is at 54 with a horizontal channel, indicating a sideways market.