Daily Analysis Forex Mix

[radex78]

The Swiss franc strengthened as the yield on 10-year Swiss government bonds rose

Yesterday the price of the USD/CHF currency pair drew a bearish long-body candle crossing the middle band from the upper side indicating a strong decline. Price formed a high of 0.89778 low of 0.89122 closing at 0.89288 on the FXOpen platform.

The Swiss Franc is gaining positive traction due to the weakening US dollar following disappointing US economic data such as last week's Jobless Claims and the S&P Global Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI). Meanwhile, the Swiss Franc (CHF) found support as the yield on the 10-year Swiss government bond rose.

Traders may still be anticipating the Fed's interest rate prospects, which are predicted to maintain interest rates for a longer time amid uncertainty over President Donald Trump's economic policy. According to the CME group's Fedwatch tool, the possible target rate at the March 19 Fed meeting is forecast to hold interest rates at a 96.5% probability and only a 4.5% probability of a 25 basis point cut.

Meanwhile, the Dollar Index (DXY) is currently at 106,283 at the time of writing, the DXY value is weakening more referring to the 50 EMA which is drawing a descending channel above the price. On the other hand, the 10-year Treasury yield fell 1.92% from the previous day's 1.98%.

In Switzerland inflation has fallen to 0.4%, the lowest level in almost four years raising expectations of easing in March, earlier in December the SNB had cut interest rates by 50 basis points and signaled the possibility of additional cuts.

Today investors will also focus on Trump's speech which will hold a press conference about his latest executive order at the White House.

USDCHF D1

USDCHF price on the daily timeframe is below the lower band line indicating strong decline. Expanding Bollinger bands indicate rising market volatility.

MA 50 near the upper band line drawing a flat channel indicates a sideways market with more potential for bearish sentiment. The 200 MA is far below the lower band drawing an ascending channel indicating bullish sentiment on long term and could be dynamic support line.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 58 and VB Low shows a value of 35. The difference of 23 reflects the volatility value in the daily timeframe.

Market Base Line points to a value of 46 with a descending channel, meaning the weight of bearish is greater than bullish.

The RSI Price Line points to a value of 31 with a descending channel crossing the TSL from the upper side indicating a downtrend market near the oversold level.

Trade Signal Line points to a value of 41 with a downward channel indicating a market downtrend.

USDCHF H4

The USDCHF pair in the H4 timeframe is near the lower band line and is drawing a reversal pattern in a fading decline. Bollinger bands expand indicating high market volatility.

The 50 MA is slightly above the middle band line drawing a slight descending channel indicating bearish sentiment. MA 200 near the upper band line draws a flat channel indicating sideways market.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 68 and VB Low shows a value of 16. The difference of 52 reflects the volatility value in the H4 timeframe.

Market Base Line points to a value of 42 with a descending channel, meaning the weight of bearish is greater than bullish.

The RSI Price Line points to the value 26 with the rising channel crossing the TSL from the lower side indicating the price is trying to leave the oversold zone level.

Trade Signal Line points to the value 19 with the channel starting to flat indicating a fading downtrend.

 

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USD/CAD started trading on a positive note rising for the fourth consecutive day

The price of the USDCAD currency pair yesterday drew a bullish candle crossing the middle band line from the downside. Price has formed a high of 1.43646, a low of 1.42938, a close of 1.43442. The pair recorded a new high of 1.43646 since mid-February.

The Canadian dollar underperformed as investors expected the Bank of Canada (BoC) to further reduce interest rates. The BoC has reduced its key lending rate to nearly 3% from a peak of 5% seen in May 2024. Canadian inflation continues to remain below the BoC's target of 2% due to a sluggish economic slowdown.

Meanwhile the dollar index (DXY), which tracks the USD currency against six major currencies, rose from a low of 106,159 to a high of 106,654 driven by the $4.5 trillion tax cut bill proposed by United States (US) President Donald Trump, which was approved by the House of Representatives which is predicted to boost economic growth and inflation. The Fed is expected to maintain its tight monetary policy stance for a longer period of time due to inflation concerns amid economic growth due to the impact of Trump's economic policies. According to the CME Group's Fedwatch tool the likelihood of the Fed leaving interest rates unchanged is 95.5% at its meeting on March 19.

Today investors will focus on the release of US GDP and Unemployment Claims news which might provide a boost to the USDCAD currency pair. US Prelim GDP is expected to be the same as the previous revision of 2.3%, while unemploymeNt claims are forecast to rise by 222k from the previous revision of 219k. Additional data on US durable goods orders may provide insight into the US economy which is forecast to increase by 2.0% from the previous -2.2%.

USDCAD D1

The USDCAD currency pair in the daily timeframe is above the middle band line. Yesterday the price crossed the middle band line from the downside indicating a bullish market. Bollinger bands draw a flat channel with wide band spacing indicating a sideways market with high volatility.

The next price tries to cross the 50 MA from the downside, the MA line draws a flat channel indicating a sideways market. The 200 MA is well below the lower band drawing a slight upward channel indicating weak bullish sentiment.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 63 and VB Low shows a value of 36. The difference of 27 reflects the volatility value in the daily timeframe.

Market Base Line points to a value of 49 with a descending channel, meaning the weight of bearish is greater than bullish.

The RSI Price Line shows a value of 54 with an upward channel crossing the TSL and MBL from the lower side indicating an uptrend market.

Trade Signal Line points to a value of 45 with an upward channel indicating an uptrend market.

USDCAD H4

The USDCAD currency pair in the H4 timeframe is below the upper band line. Bollinger bands draw an ascending channel with expanding bands indicating bullish sentiment rising volatility.

MA 50 below the middle band line drawing an ascending channel indicates bullish sentiment. The 200 MA near the upper band line draws a flat channel indicating a flat market in the long term.

The VB High TDI indicator points to a value of 72 and VB Low points to a value of 39. The difference of 33 reflects the volatility value in the H4 timeframe,

Market Base Line points to a value of 56 with an upward channel, meaning the weight of bullish is greater than bearish.

The RSI Price Line shows a value of 65 with a descending channel crossing the TSL from the upper side indicating a downtrend market.

Trade Signal Line points to a value of 68 with an upward channel indicating an uptrend market.

 

[radex78]

USD/CNH rose to a high of 7.3023 amid the strengthening of the US dollar

The USDCNH currency pair yesterday drew a bullish long body candle indicating a strong uptrend and has crossed the middle band from the downside. USDCNH price formed a high 7.3023 low 7.2583 closing 7.2996.

US prelim GDP yesterday showed 2.3%, the same as the previous period according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Meanwhile, unemployment claims increased by 242k, higher than the expected 222k and also higher than the previous revision of 220k. The same GDP data gives a neutral economic signal while unemployment claims are increasing at uncertain growth.

On the other hand, President Donald Trump confirmed that his proposed tariffs on Mexico and Canada will take effect on March 4. Analysts have feared a decline in the US economy as Trump's controversial policies add to concerns such as layoffs of federal workers by the Department of Government Efficiency, which have caused consumers and businesses to increasingly question the economic outlook.

The USDCNH currency pair on the weekly time frame for five weeks has moved more in the range of low 7.2342 and high 7.3670, this currency pair tends to be stable at the trading range level even though it fluctuates due to various economic news that occurs in both China and the US.

Today the Bureau of Economic Analysis will release important inflation data that the Fed favors in making its Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) interest rate policy which is expected to rise 0.3% from the previous revision of 0.2%. High inflation will be a serious consideration for the Fed to maintain high interest rates for longer.

USDCNH D1

On the daily timeframe, the USDCNH pair is between the upper and middle band lines near MA 50. The Bollinger band draws a flat channel with rather wide band spacing, indicating that the market moves more within the upper and lower band range with moderate volatility.

MA 50 above the middle band, drawing a flat channel, indicates the market is moving flat. MA 200 below the lower band, drawing a flat channel, indicates the market is moving flat.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 59, and VB Low shows a value of 34. The difference of 25 reflects the volatility value in the daily time frame.

Market Base Line points to a value of 46 with a descending channel, meaning the weight of bearish is greater than bullish.

The RSI Price Line shows a value of 34 55 with an upward channel crossing the TSL and MBL from the lower side, indicating an uptrend market.

Trade Signal Line points to a value of 45 with an upward channel indicating an uptrend market.

USDCNH H4

The USDCNH pair in the H4 timeframe is near the upper band line. Bollinger Bands draw an ascending channel with expanding bands, indicating bullish sentiment with high volatility.

The 50 MA near the middle band line draws a channel that curves to the upside,e indicating bullish sentiment. MA 200 is slightly below the price, drawing a flat channel indicating a sideways market.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 68, and VB Low shows a value of 31. The difference of 37 reflects the volatility value in the H4 timeframe.

Market Base Line points to a value of 49 with an upward channel, meaning bearish weight is greater than bullish with upward potential.

The RSI Price Line points to a value of 73, with the rising channel starting to flatten, indicating a fading uptrend in the overbought level zone.

Trade Signal Line points to a value of 67 with an upward channel indicating a strong market uptrend.

 

[radex78]

Gold fell more in trading last week

The price of gold throughout early 2025 has experienced a significant increase since early January and has recorded new all-time highs several times. The last gold ATH was at 2956, which was formed on February 24. Furthermore, gold failed to maintain its gains, and last week, there were more declines. Last weekend,d gold drew a bearish candle with a rather long wick at the bottom of the candle. Gold price formed a high of 2885, a low of 2832, and a closing of 2856.

US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) data was released on Friday. There were no significant surprises, as monthly PCE was forecast to rise to 0.3% from 0.2%, and general PCE at 0.3%, unchanged compared to December figures. The Dollar Index (DXY) has been strengthening since Wednesday and has risen to a high of 107.661 from a low of 106.159. The strengthening of the USD was one of the reasons for the weakening of gold prices last week.

In other hot news, United States President Donald Trump reiterated that tariffs on Mexico and Canada will begin on March 4, while China will experience an additional 10%, increasing the total tariffs to 20% on imports into the US. He also emphasized peace between Russia and Ukraine, even though there is no clarity on negotiations between Zelenskyy and Putin.

According to a World Gold Council report, global demand for gold, which reached a record high of almost 5,000 tons last year, will continue in early 2025. However, jewelry purchases will be weak as prices reach record highs. According to the WGC, India overtook China as the largest importer of gold last year due to a reduction in import taxes on the commodity. On the other hand, China experienced a decline due to the weakening of its economy from year to year.

According to analysts, geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty, which may continue this year, can still influence gold's long-term prospects. Despite this, gold is still considered a safe-haven asset in times of global economic uncertainty.

There are no high-impact news releases on today's economic calendar, but investors will probably pay attention to the US ISM Manufacturing PMI data, which is expected to remain unchanged at 50.6.

XAUUSD D1

The price of gold in the daily timeframe is slightly above the lower band line. Last week, the price crossed the middle band line from the upper side, indicating a downtrend. Bollinger Bands are still drawing an ascending channel with slightly deflated bands, indicating fading bullish sentiment.

MA 50 below the lower band, drawing an ascending channel, indicates bullish sentiment. The 200 MA is far below the 50 M,A drawing an ascending channel indicating bullish sentiment in the long term.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 8,0, and VB Low shows a value of 55. The difference of 25 reflects the volatility value in the daily timeframe.

Market Base Line shows the value 55 with a flat channel, meaning the weight of bullish is greater than bearish.

The RSI Price Line shows a value of 50 with a descending channel crossing the TSL and MBL from the upper side, indicating a downtrend market.

The Trade Signal Line points to the value 63 with a descending channel crossing the MBL from the upper side, indicating a downtrend market.

XAUUSD H4

The price of gold in the H4 timeframe is slightly above the lower band line. Two bullish candles indicate a fading decline with potential reversal. Bollinger bands draw a descending channel with expanding band spacing indicating bearish sentiment with high volatility markets.

MA 50 between the upper and middle band lines draws a curved channel to the downside indicating a change in trend to bearish. The 200 MA below the price draws an upward channel indicating bullish sentiment on the long term, the gold price bounces after touching the line.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 60 and VB Low shows a value of 26. The difference of 34 reflects the volatility value in the H4 timeframe.

Market Base Line points to a value of 43 with a descending channel, meaning the weight of bearish is greater than bullish.

The RSI Price Line points to a value of 33 with a curved path to the upper side crossing the TSL from the lower side indicating that the price has left the oversold zone level.

Trade Signal Line points to a value of 31 with a downward channel indicating a market downtrend.

 

[radex78]

AUDUSD pair consolidates after decline

Yesterday the AUDUSD currency pair drew a bullish small body candle with an on top candle wick. Price formed a high of 0.62542, a low of 0.62037, a closing of 0.62244. Price is near the lower band line.

The AUDUSD pair started its decline since February 21 amid strengthening USD. Dollar index (DXY) is now 106,415, dropping from high 107,564.

Financial markets were shocked again by President Donald Trump announcing his intention to raise tariffs on Chinese imports to 20%, up from the currently planned 10%. He also said there was no room left for a deal on duties affecting Mexico and Canada. Trump's policies have a broad impact on financial markets due to uncertainty that could lead to trade wars and inflation.

According to the Fedwatch tool CME group, the possibility of the Fed keeping interest rates high is 91% and the possibility of reducing interest rates is only 9% at the next March 19 meeting.

Meanwhile the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut the Official Cash Rate by 25 basis points to 4.10% in February and signaled a measured approach going forward. Investors await RBA minutes due on Tuesday for clues on further easing measures as inflation remains a priority.

Today Australia has released Retail Sales of 0.3% as expected and higher than previously at -0.1%.

In the future, investors will also focus on US economic data related to ADP Non-Farm Employment Change on Wednesday and NFP on Friday.

AUDUSD D1

The AUDUSD pair on the daily timeframe is near the lower band line, the decline faded and yesterday drew a bullish candle with the wick on the top candle. Bollinger bands draw a flat channel with wide band spacing indicating a sideways market with high volatility.

MA 50 is slightly above the price drawing a flat channel indicating a sideways market. MA 200 is far above the upper band drawing a flat channel indicating a sideways market.

The RSI indicator draws a flat channel at level 41, meaning a sideways price trend with potential prices below the market downtrend level.

AUDUSD H4

The AUDUSD currency pair in the H4 timeframe is below the middle band line. Bollinger bands draw a flat channel with rather narrow band spacing indicating a sideways market with low volatility.

MA 50 near the upper band line draws a flat channel indicating a sideways marker with potential bearish sentiment. The 200 MA below the 50 MA draws a flat channel indicating a sideways marker with more potential for bearish sentiment.

The RSI indicator points to level 34 with a descending channel indicating a downtrend market near the oversold level.

 

[radex78]

GBP/USD maintains gains when USD weakens

The GBPUSD extended its previous gains and has reached a new high of 1.27997. The price draws a long bullish candle reaching the upper band line. Price formed a high of 1.27997, a low of 1.26787, and a close of 1.27941 near MA 200.

The dollar index (DXY) is currently extending losses at 105.526, crossing the 20, 50, and 100 MA from the upside. The US dollar weakened amid hot news about Trump's 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada, which were implemented this month. Apart from that, Trump also changed the additional tariffs on Chinese products to 20% from previously only 10%. It seems that Trump's policy has changed the mood of investors and is one of the reasons for the weakening of the USD.

Meanwhile, according to data from the U.S. On March 4, the Department of the Treasury's Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates on March 4 experienced an increase for the 7-year tenor to 4.11%, while the 10-year tenor was 4.22%.

In the UK, the British Retail Consortium (BRC) shop price index in February fell 0.7% YoY overnight, but on the other hand, prices rose 0.4% MoM due to rising food prices. Meanwhile, in January, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 3%.

Today, the UK parliament will hear Monetary Policy Report Hearings by BOE speakers BoE Governor Andrew Bailey and MPC members.

Meanwhile, in the US, investors will wait for the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, which is expected to fall to 141k from the previous 183k. This data is to measure the estimated number of workers in the previous month, excluding the agricultural and government industries. ADP analyzed payroll data from more than 25 million workers to obtain job growth estimates.

GBPUSD D1

The GBPUSD pair on the daily timeframe is now near the upper band line. Price bounces near the middle band line to reach the upper band line. Here, the Bollinger bands draw an upward channel, indicating bullish sentiment with wide band spacing, indicating high market volatility.

The 50 MA between the middle and lower band lines draws a flat channel that curves to the upside, indicating that bullish sentiment may begin soon. MA 200 near the price is drawing a slight flat channel, indicating a sideways market in the long term.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 68, and VB Low shows a value of 41. The difference of 27 reflects the volatility value in the daily trading team.

Market Based Line shows a value of 54 with an upward channel, meaning the weight of bullish is greater than bearish.

The RSI Price Line points to a value of 67 with an ascending channel crossing the TSL from the lower side, indicating an uptrend market near the overbought level.

Trade Signal Line pointing at the value 62 draws a flat channel that curves to the upper side, indicating an uptrend market.

GBPUSD H4

The GBPUSD pair in the H4 timeframe is near the upper band line. Expanding Bollinger bands draw an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment is trying to dominate the market.

The 50 MA near the middle band line draws a slight upward channel, indicating bullish sentiment. MA 200 below the lower band line, drawing an ascending channel, indicates bullish sentiment.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 7,2, and VB Low shows a value of 36. The difference of 37 reflects the volatility value in the H4 timeframe.

Market Base Line points to a value of 54 with an upward channel, meaning the weight of bullish is greater than bearish.

The RSI Price Line shows a value of 75 with an upward channel, indicating the uptrend market is in the oversold level zone.

The Trade Signal Line points to the value 68 with an upward channel crossing the MBL from the lower side, indicating an uptrend market.

 

[radex78]

NZD/USD surges amid poor US dollar performance

The NZDUSD currency pair increased for three consecutive days. Yesterday, the price formed a long bullish candle crossing the middle band line from the downside. Price formed a high of 0.57318, a low of 0.56374, and a closing of 0.57245. The USD/CAD started to rise on March 3 after the price was at the lower band. This increase was in line with the poor performance of the US dollar.

The dollar index (DXY) has experienced three consecutive days of decline from a high of 107.654 to a low of 104.259. The weakening performance of the US dollar may be caused by Trump's tariff policy, which brings concerns about trade wars and economic uncertainty. After reiterating the proposed tariff for Canada and Mexico of 25%, and also the tariff on China, which was increased to 20%.

China has announced retaliatory tariffs against the US. Meanwhile, New Zealand could be impacted by this trade war given its significant dependence on exports to China.

The ADP Non-Farm Employment Change data released yesterday also showed that the actual data was much lower than expectations. ADP Employment data was only 77k, far below the forecast of 141k and the previous revision of 186k. This seems to be another reason for the US dollar's poor performance. However, the ISM Services PMI data was higher than forecast at 53.5, above the forecast of 52.5 and the previous revision of 52.8. Although mixed economic data still does not help the value of the dollar index to rise.

Today, RBNZ Gov Orr Speaks delivered the opening speech at a research conference hosted by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand in Wellington. Investors will be looking for subtle hints of possible hawkishness or dovishness that could influence the currency.

Apart from that, we will also pay attention to US Unemployment Claims data, which is expected to fall by 234k from the previous revision of 242k.

NZDUSD D1

The NZDUSD pair on the daily timeframe is now between the upper and middle band lines. The price has crossed the middle band line from the downside. Here, the Bollinger Bands draw a flat channel with expanding band spacing, indicating a sideways market with high volatility.

MA 50 below the middle band line, drawing a flat channel, indicates a change in market sentiment from bearish to bullish. The 200 MA is well above the upper band line, drawing a descending channel indicating a bearish sentiment in the long term.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 62, and VB Low shows a value of 41. The difference of 21 reflects the volatility value in the daily timeframe.

Market Base Line points to a value of 51 with an upward channel, meaning the weight of bullish is greater than bearish.

The RSI Price Line shows a value of 56 with an upward channel crossing the TSL and MBL from the lower side, indicating an uptrend market.

Trade Signal Line points to a value of 47 with a flat channel indicating a sideways market.

NZDUSD H4

The NZDUSD pair on the H4 timeframe jumped sharply across the MA 50 and MA 200 from the downside. Price outside the upper band line. Bollinger Bands that draw an upward channel with expanding bands indicate bullish sentiment with high-volatility markets.

The 50 MA between the upper and middle band lines draws a descending channel, indicating a bearish sentiment. The 200 MA is slightly below the 50 MA, drawing a flat channel indicating a sideways market.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 65, and VB Low shows a value of 14. The difference of 51 reflects the volatility value in the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line shows a value of 39 with an upward channel, meaning the weight of bearish is greater than bullish with more upside potential.

The RSI Price Line points to a value of 71 with an upward channel crossing the MBL from the lower side, indicating an uptrend market has entered the overbought level zone.

The Trade Signal Line points to the value 63 with an upward channel crossing the MBL from the lower side, indicating an uptrend market.

 

[radex78]

Silver Price Rises, Cautious Seeing High Price

Silver is one of the precious metals that is an alternative hedge besides gold. Yesterday, the Silver price with the symbol XAGUSD drew a bearish candle with a long wick at the bottom of the candle. The price formed a high of 32,761 low of 32,253 closing at 32,626. The Silver price has tended to rise since March which had dropped to a low of 30,814.

The US Dollar's downward trend strengthened on Wednesday, driven by concerns about the US economy as President Donald Trump's tariff policy sparked concerns about economic uncertainty. The dollar index (DXY) dropped to 103,761 yesterday, extending its previous three-day decline, although now the DXY value is slightly up at 104,180 at the time of writing.

The United States ADP Non-Farm Employment Change data released on Wednesday showed a figure of 77k smaller than the forecast of 141k from the previous revision of 186k. Traders sometimes use this information to project the possibility of NFP, which will be released today. Meanwhile, Unemployment Claims released on Thursday showed a figure of 221k, smaller than the forecast of 234k from the previous revision of 242k. Although the unemployment claims data was lower than expected, it did not help much to strengthen the dollar index.

Silver demand in Shanghai, according to SMM, is bullish influenced by a discount factor on silver contract which partly for hedging position, while downstream buyers are cautious in buying at high level and remain on the sidelines.

In Europe, the European Central Bank (ECB) delivered a widely expected interest rate cut, with President Christine Lagarde stressing the need for higher caution in uncertain economic conditions.

Today, investors will focus on US data to be released, Non-Farm Employment Change, Unemployment Rate and Average Hourly Earnings to get a picture of the recent US economy.

XAGUSD D1

Silver's price on the daily timeframe is slightly below the upper band line after crossing the middle band line from the lower side on March 5. The Bollinger band draws a flat channel with medium band spacing, indicating a sideways market with medium volatility.

MA 50 near the lower band draws a flat channel, indicating a sideways market. MA 200 is slightly above MA 50, which draws a flat channel, indicating a sideways market.

VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 69, and VB Low shows a value of 46. Difference 20 reflects volatility value on the daily timeframe.

Market Base Line shows a value of 58 with a flat channel, which means bullish weight is greater than bearish on sideways.

RSI Price Line shows value 59 with rising channel crossing TSL and MBL from the lower side indicates uptrend market.

Trade Signal Line shows value 52 with rising channel indicates uptrend market.

XAGUSD H4

The silver price in the H4 timeframe is below the upper band line. Here, the Bollinger band draws a rising channel with widening band spacing, indicating bullish with high volatility.

MA 50 below the middle band line draws a flat channel, indicating sideways market or trend transition; MA 200 near the middle band line draws a flat channel, indicating sideways market, while the price is above the MA more on bullish sentiment.

VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 7,5, and VB Low shows a value of 28. The difference of 47 reflects the volatility value in the H4 timeframe.

Market Base Line shows a value of 51 with an upward channel, meaning the bullish weight is greater than the bearish weight.

RSI Price Line shows a value of 65 with a downward channel, indicating a downtrend market leaving the overbought level.

Trade Signal Line shows a value of 66 with a downward channel, indicating a downtrend market trying to take over.

 

[radex78]

Gold volatility decreased, marked by a shrinking Bollinger band.

Gold prices last week moved steadily in the range of the $2900 price level. Buyers were reluctant to increase volume, and sellers were still holding their positions. Gold price volatility has slightly decreased with a range of low at 2894 to high 2930, the shrinking Bollinger band indicates lower volatility in gold. Gold prices at the close of Friday formed a high of 2930 and a low of 2896, closing at 2908 near the middle band line.

Although gold has entered a consolidation phase, inflation data from the US and political news can continue to affect gold prices in the short term. US President Donald Trump canceled the signing of a mineral deal with Ukraine, interpreting two possibilities to open the way for a Russian ceasefire; investors will continue to monitor global geopolitical changes.

In the US, there are increasing concerns about the US economy, which are weighing on the USD. The dollar index (DXY,) which tracks the USD against six major currencies, shows a weakening trend in the USD; DXY is now at 103.759, which started its decline since January 2025 from a high of 110.176. Trump's tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico of 25% and an additional import tariff on China of 10% are the reasons for the increasing selling of the USD. Although the impact is more visible on other major currencies than gold.

The US Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in February fell to 50.3 from 50.9 in January, reflecting a loss of growth momentum in manufacturing business activity. Meanwhile, the Employment Index fell to 47.6 from 50.3, indicating a contraction in the sector's payrolls. Meanwhile, the NFP data released on Friday showed 151k smaller than the forecast of 159k but still higher than the previous 125k.

Meanwhile, the Fed, according to the CME group's Fedwatch tool at its meeting on March 19, predicted the Fed would maintain interest rates at 4.25%-4.50% by 97%, and the possibility of a cut to 4.00%-4.25% was only 3.0%.

Looking at today's economic calendar schedule, there is no high-impact news to be released, but traders will still see market changes in real time.

XAUUSD D1

Gold price on a daily timeframe is now near the middle band line. The shrinking Bollinger band reflects less market volatility.

MA 50 below lower band draws an upward channel indicating bullish sentiment dominates the market. MA 200 below MA 50 draws an upward channel, indicating bullish sentiment in the long term.

VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 80, and VB Low shows a value of 54. The difference of 26 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

Market Base Line shows a value of 67 with a flat channel, meaning bullish weight is greater than bearish.

RSI Price Line shows a value of 57 with a flat channel that has crossed TSL from the bottom side, indicating a sideways market.

Trade Signal Line shows a value of 56 with a flat channel has crossed MBL from the top side indicating sideways market.

XAUUSD H4

The gold price in the H4 timeframe is now near the middle band line. The middle band line is often a price consolidation line. The shrinking Bollinger band indicates less market volatility.

MA 50 is slightly below the lower band and draws a descending channel, indicating a bearish sentiment with the price above the line, allowing trend transition. MA 200, which is far below the lower band, draws an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment in the long term.

VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 66, and VB Low shows a value of 37. The difference of 29 reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

Market Base Line shows a value of 51 with a flat channel, meaning the bullish weight is greater than the bearish.

RSI Price Line shows a value of 50 with a flat channel crossing TSL and MBL from the upper sid,e indicating a sideways market.

Trade Signal Line shows a value of 52 with a flat channel indicating a sideways market.

 

[radex78]

USD/JPY falls further ahead of Japan's GDP and US jobs data.

The US Dollar and Japanese Yen currency pair remains in bearish sentiment. Yesterday, the price drew a bearish candle with a lower low extending the previous decline. The price formed a high of 147.954, a low of 146.632, and closed at 147.256.

The Japanese Yen still maintains its positive bias against the US dollar amidst market bets that the BoJ will raise interest rates. This was supported in data that showed that real cash income fell 1.8% due to persistently low inflation. Adding to this, growing confidence that the strong wage increases seen last year will continue this year supports the argument for further BoJ policy tightening.

Meanwhile, in the US, fears may persist over the potential economic impact of US President Donald Trump's trade policies and the global trade war resulting from Trump's policies, further strengthening the JPY's status as a relatively safe-haven currency. As is known, Trump's proposal for imports from Canada and Mexico to be subject to a 25% tariff while China gets an additional 10% tariff from the previous 10% to 20% can affect the economic policies of the affected countries. Canada has reportedly removed US products from their store shelves as an act of retaliation for the policy.

The dollar index (DXY), although slightly up but still under pressure. DXY is now at 103.903, having previously dropped to a low of 103.458 on Friday. RSI points to level 27 on the daily timeframe, indicating oversold value.

Today, the market will wait for the Japan GDP data report year after year and per quarter, which is estimated to be the same as the previous revision, and the US JOLTS Job Openings employment data report, which is estimated to increase to 7.65M from the previous 7.60M, according to Forexfactory data.

USDJPY D1

The USDJPY pair on the daily timeframe is now near the lower band line. Bollinger bands draw a descending channel with wide band spacing, indicating bearish sentiment with high volatility.'

MA 50 near the upper band line draws a slight descending channel, indicating a bearish sentiment. MA 200 below MA 50 draws a flat channel, indicating a sideways market on long-term analysis.

VB high TDI indicator shows a value of 48, and VB Low shows a value of 28. The difference of 20 reflects the volatility value in the daily timeframe.

Market Base Line shows a value of 38 with a descending channel, meaning the bearish weight is greater than the bullish.

RSI Price Line shows a value of 29 with a descending channel crossing the TSL from the upper side, indicating a downtrend market entering the oversold zone.

Trade Signal Line shows a value of 34 with a descending channel indicating a downtrend market.

USDJPY H4

USDJPY in the H4 timeframe is between the middle and lower band lines. Bollinger Bands draw a descending channel with a fairly wide band, indicating a bearish sentiment with fairly high volatility.

MA 50 near the upper band line draws a descending channel, indicating a bearish sentiment. MA 200 is a bit far above the upper band line and draws a descending channel, indicating a bearish sentiment in the long term.

VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 52, and VB Low shows a value of 30. The difference of 22 reflects the volatility value in the H4 timeframe.

Market Base Line shows a value of 41 with a descending channel, meaning the bearish weight is greater than the bullish.

RSI Price Line shows a value of 38 with a descending channel, indicating a downtrend market.

Trade Signal Line shows a value of 38 with a channel starting to curve to the lower side, indicating a downtrend market.