Daily Analysis Forex Mix

[radex78]

EURCHF extends decline below the middle band line.

For two consecutive weeks, we have seen EURCHF decline more dominantly than increase. Day by day, lower lows are formed.

A pair often called Euro-Swiss, the Euro is the official currency of 19 European countries from the 28 members of the European Union. Meanwhile, the Swiss Franc is a reserve currency which is one of the safe-haven currencies.

The Swiss Franc exchange rate is influenced by many factors, especially the monetary policy of the European Central Bank and Swiss National Bank which controls the money supply in the market. Apart from interest rates, other factors that influence the Swiss Franc exchange rate are the trade balance, inflation data, gold, oil, and coal are also important factors for the Swiss Franc.

With high price volatility in up-and-down trends, this pair is often used for swing trading even though it is less popular for scalping.

As a safe-haven currency, the Swiss Franc can move thousands of pips when the SNB intervenes in the currency. However, this event rarely occurred after 2015.

Today's news is the focus of EURCHF traders on German and Spanish inflation data, which may affect the conversion of the Euro currency and its implications for EURCHF.

EURCHF D1

Yesterday EURCHF drew a bearish candlestick with a long body with a slight shadow on the top of the candle. The price formed a high of 0.94736 and a low of 0.94065. The price has crossed the middle band line from the upside. Bollinger bands draw a descending channel with somewhat deflated bands indicating a downtrend of somewhat reduced volatility.

The 200 MA above the price near the upper band line draws a flat channel indicating sideways in the long term.

The VB high TDI indicator points to 60 and the VB low points to 22. The difference of 38 reflects the EURCHF volatility value in the daily timeframe.

The market base line points to level 41 with a flat channel, meaning the weight of bearish is greater than bullish.

The RSI price line shows a value of 37 across the TSL and MBL from the upper side indicating a downtrend market.

The trade signal line points to a value of 42 slightly above the MBL with a slight downward channel indicating a downtrend.

EURCHF H4

The price appears to end the sideways Bollinger band squeeze phase, it breaks low and the BB line expands indicating increased volatility. Price moves near the lower band line. The 200 MA above the upper band line draws a slight descending channel indicating a downtrend. The 50 MA below the 200 MA draws a slightly curved flat channel indicating a signal trend transition.

The TDI indicator's VB high shows a value of 46 and VB low shows a value of 28. The difference of 18 reflects the volatility value in the H4 timeframe.

Market Base line points to a value of 37 with a descending channel, meaning the weight of bearish is greater than bullish.

The wavy RSI price line points to a value of 25 below the MBL crossing the TSL from the upper side indicating a downtrend entering the oversold zone.

Trade Signal line points to a value of 32 with a downward channel below the MBL indicating a market downtrend.

 

[radex78]

AUDUSD is consolidating near the resistance zone

Yesterday the AUDUSD price drew a bearish candlestick with rather long shadows on the top and bottom of the candle, within three days the price moved in the range of 0.67612 to 0.68125. Although the current price is higher than the previous high in July, the consolidation movement indicates a fading uptrend.

Australian CPI data released yesterday showed actual data of 3.5%, higher than the forecast of 3.4%, but lower than the previous revision of 3.8%. Market speculation regarding this inflation data predicts that the RBA will keep the Official Cash Rate (OCR) interest rate unchanged at 4.35%. On the other hand, the Fed is predicted to cut interest rates in September, which could have an impact on the AUD

On the other hand, Australian construction data showed 0.1% lower than the expected 0.8% but higher than the previous revision of -2.0%.

Investors will probably wait more for US PCE data which will be released on Friday which is expected to be 0.2% the same as the previous revision. However, today several important news releases that need to be concerned are US GDP data and Unemployment Claims. Prelim GDP is forecast at 2.8%, the same as the previous revision, while Unemployment Claims is forecast at 232k, the same as the previous revision.

AUDUSD D1

Since the beginning of this week, AUDUSD has tended to consolidate near the upper band line. Even though the Bollinger bands still reflect high market volatility, the consolidation pattern indicates investor caution because prices have reached resistance.

The 200 MA near the middle band draws a flat channel indicating a sideways market in the long term although more bullish.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 74 and the VB low shows a value of 21. The difference in the value of 53 reflects the high volatility value of AUDUSD in D1.

The market base line draws a flat channel pointing to the value 47, meaning the weight of bearish is greater than bullish.

The RSI Price Line points to a value of 66 with a flat channel after crossing the MBL line indicating sideways in the overbought zone.

Trade Signal line pointing to the value 66 with a flat channel after crossing the MBL indicates a sideways market.

AUDUSD H4

Price movements tend to be flat in this timeframe. The Bollinger band deflates to form a BB squeeze indicating low volatility market waiting for a breakout.

The 200 MA is far below the lower band drawing a flat channel indicating a sideways market even though it is more bullish because the price is above the line.

VB hih TDI indicator shows a value of 73 and VB low shows a value of 50. The difference of 23 reflects the low AUDUSD volatility value in the H4 timeframe.

Market Base Line points to a value of 61 with a descending channel, meaning the weight of bullish is greater than bearish with potential divergence.

The RSI price line points to the value 57 with a more zigzag rising channel.

Trade Signal Line points to a value of 59 with a descending channel indicating a downtrend signal.

 

[radex78]

Gold moves in the range of $2470-$2531 waiting for the Fed's interest rate policy

Gold prices move more in ranges after reaching an all-time high of $2531.41 on August 20. Gold price movements move up and down in market ranges.

Yesterday the price drew a bullish candlestick from a bearish one from a low of $2493 and a high of $2528.

Investors may still wait for the Fed's monetary policy cut in interest rates predicted in September. According to FedWatch from the CME group, there is a 67% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates by 0.25% and a 33% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates by 0.50%.

Yesterday's rise in gold prices may have been driven more by Chinese demand after data from the World Gold Council (WGC) on Tuesday showed China's net gold imports rose 17% in July.

US GDP data rose 3.0% higher than the forecast of 2.8% with the previous revision of 2.8%. On the other hand, Unemployment Claims 231k was somewhat smaller than the forecast of 232k with the previous revision of 233k. In theory, this is good for USD strengthening.

Today investors will focus on Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data, which is the Fed's most preferred inflation data, which is forecast at 0.2% from the previous revision of 0.2%.

XAUUSD D1

Gold prices are still in consolidation movement between the upper and middle band lines. Gold movements are mostly in the $2470-$2531 price range this week.

Bollinger bands draw an upward channel with wide band spacing indicating high market volatility.

The 200 MA is far below the lower band drawing an upward channel indicating an uptrend.

The VB high TDI indicator shows a value of 69 and the VB low shows a value of 48. The difference of 21 reflects the low volatility value of gold on D1.

Market Base Line with a flat channel points to a value of 58, meaning the weight of bullishness is greater than bearish.

The RSI price line with a zigzag channel pointing to a value of 62 indicates wavy prices.

Trade Signal Line with a flat channel pointing to a value of 62 indicates a sideways market.

XAUUSD H4

Gold prices in this time frame move between the upper and middle band lines. Bollinger band squeeze reflects low price volatility.

MA 200 is far below the lower band indicating an uptrend.

The TDI indicator's VB high points to a value of 63 and VB low points to a value of 43. The difference of 20 reflects the low gold volatility value in the H4 timeframe.

Market Base Line with a flat channel points to a value of 53, meaning the weight of bullishness is greater than bearish.

The RSI Price line with a flat line has crossed the MBL pointing to a value of 56, indicating a possible uptrend.

Trade signal line with an ascending channel crossing the MBL from the downside indicates an uptrend signal.

 

[radex78]

EURUSD plunged last week, is September a continuation or reversal?

Last weekend the EURUSD price drew a bearish candlestick extending the previous decline and reaching the middle band line.

If we go to the weekly TF, the price area is now at the low of the previous candlestick, which is a possible support zone.

in the previous week USD seems to have managed to gain some composure as US economic data is supportive and investors continue to assess the prospect of lower interest rates in September amid a strong economy.

US economic data released last week, annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for the second quarter was 3%, higher than the previous forecast of 2.8%. Unemployment Claims and Personal Consumption Expenditure/PCE are in line with market expectations.

This week investors will focus on several important news, JOLTS Job Openings data, ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, Unemployment Claims, and Non-Farm Employment Change which are high-impact news.

However, in today's economic calendar schedule, some economic news should be concerning including PMI manufacturing data for several European countries such as German, French, and Spanish.

EURUSD D1

EURUSD price is now moving near the middle band line which is a means of BB deviation. It often happens that the price consolidates near the middle band line.

Bollinger bands still reflect high volatility as seen from the wide spacing of the upper and lower bands. On the other hand, MA 200 with a flat channel near the lower band indicates a sideways market.

The TDI indicator's VB high shows a value of 75 and VB low shows a value of 45. The difference of 30 reflects the value of moderate volatility in the D1 timeframe.

Market Base Line shows a value of 60 with a flat channel, meaning the weight of bullish is greater than bearish.

The RSI price line shows a value of 52 across the TSL and MBL indicating a downtrend.

Trade Signal Line shows the value 62 with a downward channel slightly above the MBL line indicating a downtrend.

EURUSD H4

In this time frame EURUSD moves near the lower band line. Bollinger bands draw a descending channel with wide band spacing indicating high market volatility.

The 200 MA below the lower band draws an ascending channel with a dynamic support point around 1.09646.

The TDI indicator's VB high shows a value of 74 and VB low shows a value of 23. The difference of 51 reflects the high volatility of EURUSD in the H4 timeframe.

Market Base Line points to a value of 49 with a descending channel, meaning the weight of bearish is greater than bullish.

The RSI price line draws a zigzag channel crossing the TSL pointing to a value of 25 indicating a downtrend.

The trade signal line shows a value of 29 with a downward channel indicating a downtrend market.

 

[radex78]

EURGBP is consolidating near the support zone

EURGBP price volatility looks high referring to the Bollinger band indicator, the wide spacing of the upper and lower bands indicates high market volatility.

The EURGBP price wave is quite interesting, since August the price has started to move up from the low range of 0.84125, to reach the high level of 0.86185. The highest price was formed at 0.86238 on August 8.

Then the price gradually decreased back to a low point at the price of 0.83984 on August 30. Earlier this week the EURGBP consolidation movement drew a bullish candlestick with a shadow on the top candle.

Going to the W1 time frame, this zone is a support zone based on previous price history which may be an important level for possible trend reversal or continuation.

From a fundamental perspective, the ECB is predicted to reduce its main lending interest rate next month due to lower inflation as expected. Meanwhile, the BOE predicts a slower policy easing cycle. . The BoE is expected to cut interest rates once again this year.

See today's economic calendar schedule, traders will probably focus on US ISM manufacturing PMI data which is forecast at 47.5 from the previous revision of 46.8. However, whether this news release will have an impact on EURGBP is not yet clear.

EURGBP D1

The price is now moving near the lower band line. The price is drawing a bullish candlestick reflecting the downtrend starting to fade.

Bollinger bands draw wide spacing indicating a high volatility market with the middle band drawing a downward channel.

The 200 MA above the middle band line draws a downward channel indicating a market downtrend.

The TDI indicator's VB high shows a value of 71 and VB low shows a value of 29. The difference of 42 reflects the high volatility of EURGBP in the D1 timeframe.

Market Base Line points to the value of 50 with a flat channel, meaning bearish and bullish weights in the neutral zone.

The RSI price line shows a value of 37 across the TSL and MBL from the upper side indicating a downtrend market.

The Trade Signal Line shows a value of 37 crossing the MBL from the upper side indicating a downtrend market.

EURGBP H4

Price moves near the middle band line. The Bollinger band is deflated with a flat channel indicating a low volatility market leaning sideways.

The 200 MA above the price draws a flat channel indicating a sideways market is in a downward trend.

The VB high TDI indicator shows a value of 48 and VB low shows a value of 18. The difference of 30 reflects the medium volatility value of EURGBP on H4.

Market Base line shows the value 33 with a flat channel, meaning the weight of bearish is greater than bullish.

The RSI price line shows a value of 46 crossing the MBL from the lower side indicating an uptrend.

The trade signal line pointing to the value 46 crosses the MBL from the downside indicating an uptrend.

 

[radex78]

Gold bounces at low $2423, downside potential still exists

Yesterday the gold price drew a bearish candlestick with a long shadow at the bottom of the candle. The price has crossed the middle band line from the upside and bounced to around $2492 near the middle band line. The middle band line is often a consolidation zone of price deviations.

Yesterday's release of ISM Manufacturing PMI data showed that the actual data was 47.2, slightly lower than the expected 47.5, but higher than the previous revision of 46.8. Meanwhile, ISM Manufacturing Prices showed actual data of 54.0, higher than expected 52.1 and the previous revision of 52.9.

Market players still seem to be hoping for new clues about what the Fed will do this month, even though news that the Fed will cut interest rates has been circulating for a long time.

According to the FedWtach Tool from CME Group, forecasts for interest rate cuts are between 5%-5.25% at 62.0% and 4.75%-5% cuts at 38%.

Today's important data that will be released and may be of concern to investors is US jobs data, Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), which is predicted to fall by 8.09M from the previous revision of 8.18M.

On the other hand, investors will wait for US NFP data which will be released on Friday which is expected to provide a clear picture of what the Fed will do.

XAUUSD D1

Gold price is now consolidating near the middle band line. The deflated BB line indicates reduced volatility in this timeframe, although the middle band is drawing an upward channel.

The 200 MA is far below the lower band drawing an upward channel indicating an uptrend market.

The TDI indicator's VB high points to a value of 67 and VB low points to a value of 48. The difference of 19 reflects the low volatility of gold in the D1 timeframe.

Market Base Line shows a value of 57 with a flat channel, meaning the weight of bullish is greater than bearish.

The RSI price line shows a value of 54 across the TSL and MBL indicating a downtrend market.

Trade Signal Line points to a value of 58 with a downward channel indicating a market downtrend.

XAUSD H4

The price is now below the middle band line. BB line draws a descending channel with expanding bands indicating a downtrend with increasing volatility.

The 200 MA below the lower band draws an ascending channel that fades indicating a weakening uptrend.

The VB High TDI indicator points to a value of 60 and VB Low points to 36. The difference of 24 reflects the medium volatility value of gold on the H4 timeframe.

Market Base Line points to a value of 48 with a descending channel, meaning the weight of bearish is greater than bullish.

The RSI price line pointing at the value 43 tries to cross the TSL from the downside indicating starting a reversal signal.

The trade signal line points to a value of 41 with a flat channel indicating a sideways market.

 

[radex78]

USDCHF weakened after JOLTS data, there is an aura of bearish continuation

USDCHF yesterday drew a bearish candlestick with a small shadow on the top candle. This forms the lower low of the previous candle below the middle band line.

The US dollar seems to be facing challenges because US government bond yields are declining amid the increasing possibility of a Fed interest rate cut.

Yesterday's JOLTS data showed the actual value of 7.67M lower than the expected 8.09M, also lower than the previous data revision of 7.91M. The market response to lower US jobs data caused the USD to weaken.

On the other hand, Swiss inflation slowed to 1.1% in August from 1.3% in the previous month, below expectations of 1.2%. In April and May, the rate of price increase rose to 1.4% but then started to fall again, falling 0.2% in the last three months. Further slowdown may provide opportunities for monetary policy easing.

The market will still be waiting for other important US NFP data which will be released on Friday which may provide an idea of the potential for a Fed interest rate cut this month.

Today investors will focus on ADP Non-Farm Employment Change data which is expected to rise to 144k from the previous 122k. Meanwhile, Unemployment Claims are expected to be the same as the previous 231k.

USDCHF D1

USDCHF yesterday drew a bearish candlestick with a high of 0.85180, and a low of 0.84612 which was lower than the previous low of 0.84776. Price moves between the middle and lower bands. BB line draws a downward channel with wide band spacing indicating a downtrend with medium volatility.

MA 200 draws a flat channel above the upper band line indicating a sideways market in the long term with bearish weight greater than bullish.

The TDI indicator's VB high shows a value of 45 and VB low shows a value of 23. The difference of 22 reflects the low volatility value of USDCHF at D1 timeframe.

Market Base Line shows a value of 34 with a flat channel, meaning the weight of bearish is greater than bullish.

The RSI price line points to a value of 35 trying to cross the MBL from the upper side indicating a downtrend.

The trade signal line points to the value 35 with an upward channel indicating an uptrend.

USDCHF H4

Price moves near the lower band line in this timeframe. The BB is slightly inflated, there is an indication that deviations are widening, allowing volatility to develop.

The 200 MA draws a descending channel well above the upper band indicating a downtrend market.

The TDI indicator's VB high points to a value of 71 and VB low points to a value of 33. The difference of 37 reflects the high volatility value of USDCHF in the H4 timeframe.

Market Base Line points to a value of 52 with an upward channel, meaning the weight of bullish is greater than bearish.

The RSI price line shows a value of 38 across the TSL indicating a downtrend market.

The Trade Signal Line shows a value of 44 crossing the MBL from the upper side indicating a downtrend market.

 

[radex78]

GBPUSD has the potential to continue the bullish trend

Yesterday GBPUSD drew an almost shadowless bullish candlestick with a medium candlestick body. GBPUSD's rise continued the previous day of the week after GBPUSD fell from resistance 1.32653 to a low of 1.30869 in a week.

Yesterday's ADP Non-Farm Employment Change data showed the actual data of 99k was much lower than the expected 144k, even lower than the previous revision of 111k. This data raises concerns that the US could be heading into a recession.

The ADP report is usually used to estimate market expectations for the NFP report that will be released today, but this has a weak track record of accuracy.

On the other hand, Unemployment Claims fell 227k from the expected 231k with the previous revision of 232k. This data supports the currency and reduces recession fears.

Meanwhile, PMI services data was 51.5 compared to the expected 51.3 and the previous revision of 51.4, this shows an expansion above 5.0.

On the other hand, predictions of the FED cutting interest rates have increased. According to the FedWatch tool from CME Group, the forecast for the Fed cutting interest rates by 0.25% is 59.0% and the forecast for cutting 0.50% is up 41.0%.

Today's NFP is expected to rise to 164k from the previous revision of 114k. Differences in actual data that are too large can affect USD volatility.

GBPUSD D1

The price is now moving above the middle band line and reflecting the bullish signal from the middle band line drawing an ascending channel.

The 200 MA near the lower band draws an ascending channel indicating an uptrend market. And the MA 50 above the MA 200 indicates strong bullish sentiment.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 75 and VB low shows a value of 38. The difference of 37 reflects the high volatility of GBPUSD in the D1 timeframe.

Market Base Line draws a flat channel pointing to the value 57, meaning the weight of bullishness is greater than bearish.

The RSI Price line is pointing at 63 trying to cross the TSL from the downside indicating a bullish signal.

The trade signal line draws a descending channel pointing to a value of 62 indicating a downtrend.

GBPUSD H4

GBPUSD price is near the upper band line. A narrow BB line indicates low market volatility.

MA 200 is far below the lower band drawing a flat channel indicating sideways. And MA 50 near the price is drawing a flat channel indicating a flat market.

The TDI indicator's VB high shows a value of 60 and VB low shows a value of 34. The difference of 26 reflects the low volatility value of GBPUSD in the H4 timeframe.

Market Base Line points to a value of 47 with a flat channel, meaning the weight of bearish is greater than bullish.

The RSI price line shows a value of 61 above the TSL indicating an uptrend market.

The trade signal line points to the value 59 with the rising channel crossing the MBL indicating an uptrend

 

[radex78]

Does USDJPY has the potential to extend its decline?

Last week the price of USDJPY tended to draw a downtrend pattern since September 2 sequentially the price drew bearish candlesticks with lower lows.

At the weekend, before the release of NFP data, the USDJPY rose to 143,884, but the lower-than-expected NFP data caused the USDJPY price to continue its decline at a low of 141,723 before rebounding to 142,296. NFP data showed 142k lower than the expected 164k though higher than the previous revision of 89k. On the other hand, the US Unemployment Rate met expectations at 4.2% from the previous revision of 4.3%.

UUSDJPY is a pair often linked with carry trade strategies because Japan's low interest rates allow investors to borrow money at low interest rates to invest in currencies with high interest rates.

The forecast that the FED will cut interest rates is still the focus of traders, according to the CME group's FedWatch tool, the forecast for the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 bps increased by 71%, while the forecast for a 50 bps cut fell by 29%. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates on September 18.

Today, some news that may be of concern is Japanese GDP data which is expected to be 0.8%.

USDJPY D1

USDJPY price is now moving near the lower band line. Expanding Bollinger bands reflect increased volatility.

The 200 MA above the upper band line draws a flat channel, while the 50 MA tries to cross the 200 MA from the upper side indicating a death cross signal.

The VB high TDI indicator points to a value of 44 and the VB low points to a value of 18. The difference of 26 reflects the low volatility value of USDJPY in the D1 timeframe.

Market Base line points to a value of 31 with a descending channel, meaning the weight of bearish is greater than bullish.

The RSI price line points to a value of 32 crossing the TSL from the upper side indicating a downtrend near the oversold zone.

Trade Signal line points to a value of 38 with a flat channel indicating a sideways market.

USDJPY H4

The price is now moving near the lower band line. BB line draws a descending channel with wide band spacing indicating a downtrend with high volatility.

The 200 MA above the upper band draws a descending channel, and the 50 MA near the middle band line draws a flat channel indicating a sideways market.

The VB high TDI indicator shows a value of 72 and the VB low shows a value of 16. The difference of 56 reflects the high volatility of the USDJPY market in the H4 timeframe.

Market Base Line points to a value of 44 with a descending channel, meaning the weight of bearish is greater than bullish.

The RSI price line points to a value of 25 with a flat channel indicating the price is in the oversold zone.

Trade Signal Line points to a value of 26 with a flat channel indicating a sideways market

 

[radex78]

Gold prices rose on Monday, still within a range

Gold prices fell at the end of last week due to mixed US economic data. Gold prices rose to a high of $2,528, but failed to extend the increase after the NFP and Unemployment rate data were released. Gold prices plunged to a low of $2484 on the same day and closed at $2496.

Friday's NFP data showed the US added fewer jobs than expected in August. The data indicates that the labor market is weakening overall and therefore, there is a greater chance for the Fed to make a larger 0.50% interest rate cut rather than the standard 0.25% in September.

Seeing these expectations should be good for gold as a non-yielding asset when interest rate expectations are lower. However, gold failed to continue its increase due to mixed other data. The Unemployment Rate, fell to 4.2% from 4.3% as expected, and wage growth increased 0.4% on the month, beating the 0.3% forecast.

The mixed US economic data caused gold prices to fall below $2500 before rebounding again. In general, gold prices are still moving within the market range of around $2500.

Meanwhile, data from the PBoC shows no increase in bank gold reserves. As is known, China is the world's largest gold importer apart from Türkiye and India.

Investors may still be waiting for the Fed to cut interest rates this month, expected September 18. According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, the target probability of a 0.25% cut is 70% and the probability of a 0.50% cut is 30%.

XAUUSD D1

Gold prices are now moving near the middle band line which often acts as a consolidation line for deviations that occur. Yesterday the price drew a bullish candlestick with a shadow at the bottom of the candle. Bollinger bands deflate reflecting weakening volatility.

The 200 MA is far below the lower band drawing an upward channel indicating an uptrend.

The TDI indicator's VB high shows a value of 67 and VB low shows a value of 48. The difference of 19 reflects the low gold volatility value in the D1 timeframe.

Market Base Line shows a value of 57 with a flat channel, meaning the weight of bullish is greater than bearish.

RSI price line with a flat channel pointing to a value of 56 below the MBL indicates weak bearishness.

Trade signal line with a flat channel pointing to a value of 56 below the MBL indicates weak bearishness.

XAUUSD H4

Gold price in this time frame is moving near the middle band line trying to cross from the lower side. Bolllinger bands draw a flat channel with wide band spacing indicating high market volatility.

The 200 MA below the lower band draws a slight upward channel indicating a bullish market.

The VB high TDI indicator points to a value of 61 and the VB low points to 34. The difference of 37 reflects the high volatility value of gold in the H4 timeframe.

Market Base Line shows a value of 48 with a flat channel, meaning the weight of bearish is greater than bullish.

The RSI price line shows a value of 53 crosses TSL and MBL from the lower side indicating an uptrend.

The trade signal line points to a value of 47 below the MBL with an upward channel indicating an uptrend.