Morgan Stanley’s chief economist Chetan Ahya wrote on Monday (August 26) that trade barriers raised close to the level that would lead the global economy into recession.
Ahya pointed out in the report: "We have made the risk of further escalation of trade disputes significant. If the United States imposes a 25% tariff on all imported goods in China, and the Chinese side responds, as long as this situation lasts for four to six months, the global economy will fall into recession for six to nine months."
If the tariffs imposed by both parties at the end of last week are fully implemented, Ahya expects the global economic growth rate to drop to 2.6% in the first quarter of 2020, only slightly above the 2.5% decline level. It is believed that as long as the United States raises tariffs to 25%, it will be enough to suppress the global economic growth rate below 2.5%.
#tradebarriers #tariff #WikiFX
Ahya pointed out in the report: "We have made the risk of further escalation of trade disputes significant. If the United States imposes a 25% tariff on all imported goods in China, and the Chinese side responds, as long as this situation lasts for four to six months, the global economy will fall into recession for six to nine months."
If the tariffs imposed by both parties at the end of last week are fully implemented, Ahya expects the global economic growth rate to drop to 2.6% in the first quarter of 2020, only slightly above the 2.5% decline level. It is believed that as long as the United States raises tariffs to 25%, it will be enough to suppress the global economic growth rate below 2.5%.
#tradebarriers #tariff #WikiFX