Trading Room: Asian Session

[William Gilday]

Welcome to Asia May12th, 2016

Hello traders and good to be back with you, This is the third day we are seeing such slow price action and the markets are just not moving with the EURUSD only staying in a 65 pip range all week. Data in the London session could move today as the GBP has two high impact news events . They are Interest Rate Decision following that they will have BOE Inflation Report. BOE GOV Carney then Speaks. The U.S. session all we have is two members of the FOMC speaking. Asia is very quite today so let us take a look at what happened at the close of yesterday's session.

(US) Market Close Summary **Headlines**- Disney weighs on the Dow after second straight disappointing earnings reaction- Macy's and Fossil earnings reports weigh on higher end retailers - Toyota slides on outlook cut, citing strong Yen- Office Depot and Staples shredded after judge backs FTC in blocking deal- US dollar retreats- Surprisingly bullish EIA inventory report sends oil prices higher- FTC said to be again looking at Google's potential abuse of search dominance- (US) Latest poll shows Republican candidate Trump nearly even with Democratic candidate Clinton in head-to-head matchup - press- Investors gobble up US 10-year auction **European post close highlights**- VIV.FR: Reports Q1 net €99M v €100Me, EBITDA €213M v €218M y/y, Rev €2.49B v €2.5Be- ALBK.IE: Ireland government may reportedly delay sale of up to 25% stake in Allied Irish Bank until next year - press- (PT) Portugal PM Costa: Q1 budget deficit is "in line" with expectations _Summary:_US stocks markets gave back all of yesterday's gains and then some, largely on the backs of disappointing earnings reports. Disney shares pressured the Dow after cable networks revenue declined 2% in Q1. Retailers experienced a wide swath of selling after Macy's guided lower, while upscale retail and accessories were hit particularly hard in light of the aforementioned and a very poor outlook for Fossil. A late afternoon report that the FTC was considering reopening a probe of Google's market dominance in search foreclosed any chance of a rebound and sent stocks out on their lows. Demand for US Treasuries remained robust as evidenced by an extremely solid 10-year note sale. Crude prices moved up and select oil services firms gained ground after weekly inventory data revealed a surprise drawdown in crude inventories, as well as bigger than expected draws in gasoline and distillate stocks. The Dollar traded softer into the oil data and lost even more ground against the commodity pairs following those figures.Jack in the Box reported an earnings beat after market close, citing strong sales performance from its Qdoba division. Weight Watchers confirmed that its star shareholder and pitchwoman Oprah Winfrey was elected to a 2-year term on the board. **Markets**- Dow Jones -1.2% - Source TradeTheNews.com

Traders thank you and we will talk soon.......William

 

[William Gilday]

JPY Just Releases Banking Data May 12th, 2016

Traders I felt this was important to show you as JPY released a lot of banking data. As we expext some kind of monetary easing at any time. OK let us take a look at the numbers.


06:50(JP) JAPAN APR BANK LENDING (INCL TRUSTS) Y/Y: 2.2% V 2.0% PRIOR; BANK LENDING (EX- TRUSTS) Y/Y: 2.2% V 1.9%E (related EWJ JGB JOF JPY/USD USD/JPY)06:50(JP) Japan investors net ¥270.3B in foreign bonds v ¥B in prior week; Foreign investors net ¥B in Japan stocks v ¥ in Japan stocks in prior week- Japan investors net ¥B in foreign stocks v ¥B in prior week- Foreign investors net ... more... (related EWJ JGB USD/JPY JOF JPY/USD)06:50*(JP) JAPAN MAR CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE: ¥2.98T V ¥2.97TE; ADJUSTED CURRENT ACCOUNT: ¥T V ¥1.91TE; TRADE BALANCE: ¥B V ¥907BE (related EWJ JGB USD/JPY JOF JPY/USD)06:42(JP) Preview: Japan MAR Current Account/Trade Balance, and APR Bank lending data expected at 19:50ET (23:50 GMT)- Current Account Total ¥2.97Te v ¥2.43T prior- Adjusted Current Account Total: ¥... more... (related JPY/USD USD/JPY) - Source TradeTheNews.com


Thank you traders talk soon.....William

 

[William Gilday]

Welcome To Asia This Friday The 13th Of May, 2016

Hello traders good to be back with you, so price action was better yesterday as I looked at the charts. I am glad to see the dollar index is now above 94. I also noticed that Oil touched the 47.00$ mark as I expect it to go to 50.00$. We have German GDP data today and in the U.S. session we have Retail sales and that will be a big number and a market mover. We have no data in Asia. NZD has medium impact data retail sales and both numbers were a miss not good.We have BOJ Kuroda talking again late in Asia today as he talked yesterday for over two hours and really said nothing.

OK let us take a look at what the markets did at the close of trading yesterday....(US) Market Close Summary **Headlines**- US equity markets roll over early, led by NASDAQ and Apple- US jobless claims jump above 290K (highest since early 2015)- disappointing retail earnings reports continue with Kohl's, Nordstrom, Dillards- Monsanto market cap grows on press reports of continued deal interest- BOE Carney highlights growth concerns surrounding Brexit- Fed speak talks of continued need for gradual rate normalization- US 30-year sale does not fare nearly as well as the week's earlier supply- (US) Federal judge rules in favor of House Republicans in Obamacare healthcare law challenge - press- WTI pushes up above $47 for first time since Nov **European post close highlights**- UBI.FR: Reports FY15 Rev €1.39B v €1.46B y/y- PC.IT: Reports Q1 Net €39.8M, Rev €1.40B v €1.57B- (PT) Portugal PM Costa: Q1 budget deficit is "in line" with expectations _Summary:_US stock indices opened in the green but quickly relinquished gains. The NASDAQ rolled first, led by declines in some of its most widely followed names including Apple and Netflix. The Transports also came under early pressure, weighed upon by the airlines. This coincided with WTI running up to $47 for the first time since November. Many healthcare names, especially hospitals, traded heavily before and after a Federal judge ruled in favor of House Republicans in a suit challenging some aspects of Obamacare. The US Dollar drifted higher, helped by some Fed officials who continue to call for rate tightening that could come as early as the June meeting. US Treasury prices drifted lower after continued long-end corporate supply announcements (Intel $1.25B 30-year) and a decidedly weaker 30-year US Treasury sale weighed on sentiment.After market close, Shake Shack boosted its outlook and reported a sizzling Q1, citing success with its new Chick'n Shack products and a strong California debut. Nvidia beat on top and bottom line, noting growth across all its platforms. Nordstrom's badly missed Street estimates and cut its full year outlook, its results hampered by high markdowns and disappointing sales in the quarter. **Markets** - Source TradeTheNews.com

Thank you traders and we will talk soon ......William

 

[William Gilday]

Welcome Traders To A New Week May 16th, 2016

Hello traders welcome to a new week as we have Germany and Switzerland is on holiday today. We have no data in Asia today. It looks to be a Technical trading day. PM ABE is talking today and has stated he will delay any tax hike at this time.

Traders let me give you the weekly review:

TradeTheNews.com Weekly Market Update: Spring Awakening Strong jobs and retail sales data out this week appeared to tip the debate about whether the US economy is getting over the big hiccup seen in the first quarter. Also, somewhat hawkish commentary by a few moderate FOMC voters drove a flatter US Treasury yield curve and kept upward pressure on the greenback into the week's end. Weak Chinese trade data drove big declines on the Shanghai Composite, however the story did not seem to impact global markets more broadly. Meanwhile, crude prices steadily advanced back toward $50, where many commentators expect them to be for the balance of 2016. Corporate bond issuance picked up momentum and coincided with a slate of US Treasury issuance. The US 3- and 10-year sales were received well by the markets, but Thursday's 30-year saw demand hampered after a several large corporations sold significant amounts of longer dated debt earlier in the week. Nevertheless the US 10-year yield finished the week at roughly 1-month and 1-week lows of 1.70%. Stocks didn't make much headway as traditional retailers reported a spate of disappointing earnings, and for the week the DJIA fell 1.2%, the S&P500 lost 0.5%, and the Nasdaq slipped 0.4%. Last Friday, the April jobs report raised real fears about a slowdown in the labor market, however the March JOLTs data out this week lent support to the thesis that things are more or less healthy. The job openings available in March surged to their second highest level ever at 5.8 million, while the key quits rate held steady at 2.1%, just under the decade high of 2.2%. The hiring rate fell slightly from February but remained strong. Meanwhile, the weekly jobless claims rose to a 14-month high, after last week's 12-month high, raising some eyebrows. The April retail sales numbers were much stronger, and most importantly the control group - used for calculating GDP - surged to +0.9% to +0.2% m/m. The US Dollar accelerated higher heading into the week's end, following hawkish remarks from FOMC voters George and Rosengren, aided and abetted by the better retail sales data. The dollar index pushed out to around one-month highs just shy of 95, while EUR/USD dropped sharply on Friday back below 1.1300. Boston Fed President Rosengren's remarks certainly sounded like an endorsement of more interest rate hikes, sooner. He said markets were too pessimistic about the economic and policy outlook, weak Q1 data appeared to be temporary, and early Q2 data was consistent with inflation closer to 2% target and GDP growth above 1.75%. George, the dissenting voter at the last two FOMC meetings, simply repeated again that she is in favor of raising rates. The 2-year/10-year UST yield curve noticeably flattened at week's end as short-term yields saw their biggest gains in three weeks. Expectations for rate hikes repriced on Friday, with Fed funds futures calling for a 61% chance of a rate hike by December, compared to 43% earlier.China's exports stabilized in April in yuan terms, but saw declines in dollar terms. The export sector has shown y/y declines in dollar terms for nine of the last 10 months. Imports fell 11% y/y in dollar terms, while imports extended a streak of declines to 18 months, down 2% y/y. In yuan terms, the report was much less bad, with exports up 4% but imports also down sharply. April's exports follow a March surge in both currencies, which may have been exaggerated by seasonal effects after the Lunar New Year holiday. The absence of a sustained trade rebound adds to pressure for more government stimulus to help boost growthThere are growing fears about rising public bond defaults in China, which may be causing the nation's bond market to stagnate. An HSBC note out this week reported that YTD, there have already been 12 public bond defaults involving more - Source TradeTheNews.com

Traders I will keep you updated as we go in Asia depending if we get some movement and I am not in any trades at this time...

Thank you traders and will talk soon.......William

 

[William Gilday]

Hello Traders on this Tuesday May 17th, 2013

Hello traders yesterday was a very slow day in London as many countries were on Holiday. The issue yesterday was the results of CNY data released over the weekend and PM ABE stating the tax hike is not going to happen in 2017.

Today we have a very good day reference data as we have release's in all three trading session and the U.S. being the most active. We have in this Asia session RBA Meeting Minutes. Please stay alert on your economical calendar.

OK let us look at the close of the markets yesterday:

(US) Market Close Summary **Headlines**- US Indices rally led by Apple and Berkshire stake disclosure- May Empire Manufacturing disappoints, new orders slide- Delta Airlines becomes first of the major airlines to announce capacity cuts- Crude oil prices extend rally, Brent pushes towards $50- Pfizer bids for Anacor Pharma sending shares up more than 50%- US short rates back up to 2-week highs**European post close highlights**- (LY) Libya govt to resume oil shipments from port of Hariga following Vienna talks - press- PC.IT: Reports Q1 Net €39.8M, Rev €1.40B v €1.57B- (PT) Portugal PM Costa: Q1 budget deficit is "in line" with expectations _Summary:_US stocks jumped out of the gates this week largely on the back of Apple shares. Berkshire Hathaway disclosed a roughly $1B stake in the most recent 13F filing, which helped turn sentiment in the name. The chain Apple suppliers rallied, too, helping the NASDAQ to relative gains. Oil prices powered higher and now bring that $50 mark back into view, which further aided stock sentiment. Money moved away from the UST market, pushing up short rates to the highest levels in nearly two weeks. The Dollar largely moved sideways, consolidating its recent gains.**Markets**- Dow Jones +1.0%- S&P500 +1.0%- Nasdaq +1.2% - US 2-yr: +3bps at 0.79%- 10-yr: +5bps at 1.75%- 30-yr: +4bps at 2.60%- 2-10 spread: -2bps at 0.97% **Commodities**: - Source TradeTheNews.com


Thank you traders and we will talk soon.......William

 

[William Gilday]

RBA Meeting Minutes Released

Hello traders the minutes have been released and we have seen a over 30 pip reaction to the minutes. The minutes seemed to be hawkish as they defended there rate cut. Here is a brief of what was said.

*(AU) RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA (RBA) MAY MEETING MINUTES: Talked about cutting rate or awaiting more information before acting - On balance, members were persuaded that prospects for sustainable growth in the economy, with inflation returning to target over time, would be improved by easing monetary policy at this meeting.- Members noted that developments over recent months had not led to a material change in the outlook for economic activity or the unemployment rate, but the outlook for inflation had been revised lower.- Commodity prices not expected to increase mining investment.- Chinese growth has moderated further in Q1, more stimulatory policy should provide support.- Growth outlook for Australia's major trading partners have been revised a little lower since February; growth in Australia's major trading partners, particularly China, was likely to be weaker than expected for the next two years.- Lowest A$ since 2013 is helping the economy, but a rising A$ would complicate this.- Very accommodative monetary policy is helping the economy rebalance following mining boom.- Although the March quarter outcome for CPI reflected some temporary factors, the broad-based softness in prices and labour costs signalled less momentum in domestic inflationary pressures than had previously been expected. - The developments over recent months had not led to a material change in the outlook for economic activity or the unemployment rate.- Global growth remained subdued and, even though the global market volatility experienced earlier this year had eased.**Reminder: On May 3rd the RBA cut the cash target rate to 1.75% (a fresh record low) Related ( AUD/USD EWA ) - Source TradeTheNews.com


Thank you traders and talk soon........William

 

[William Gilday]

Welcome traders to Asia May 18th, 2016

Hello traders JPY had good numbers today with GDP 0.4VS 0.1 That is good data. London and US sessions are busy today.

OK let us look aat the close yesterday......

(US) Market Close Summary **Headlines**- US headline CPI pushed up by energy and airline prices- Single family housing starts and permits rise in April- April industrial production strongest in nearly 2 years- Crude oil prices extend rally, Brent reaches towards $50- (US) Fed's Williams, Kaplan and Lockhart (moderate, non-voters): The next several meetings are live, reiterates raising two or three times in 2016 makes sense- US yield curve continues to flatten despite better economic data**European post close highlights**- KU2.DE: China's Midea Group said to be mulling takeover offer - press- ECB's Nouy: low interest rates could eventually take a toll_Summary:_US indices opened relatively flat, while a spate of upbeat US economic data helped lead to notable outperformance in the Dow Jones Transports early on. But as investors digested the hotter than expected April CPI figures and improving industrial production data, they were greeted by a fresh chorus of Fed officials emphasizing rates could go up again as soon as next month. US Treasury markets saw short rates back up once again, leading to more flattening along the curve. Stocks came under pressure, led by groups overly sensitive to interest rates, including REITs, utilities, and dividend-paying consumer staples. Oil service names were a bright spot as crude prices extended recent gains, but they were unable to keep the broader stock indices up and equity markets closed down about 1%.**Markets**- Dow Jones -1.0%- S&P500 -0.9%- Nasdaq -1.3% - US 2-yr: +4bps at 0.83%- 10-yr: +1bps at 1.76%- 30-yr: -1bps at 2.59% - Source TradeTheNews.com


OK traders we will talk soon......William

 

[William Gilday]

The Market Review May 19th, 2016

Hello traders here is the Video for today as we look at six currency pairs with commentary and analysis. Please visit us at fxclearing.com for your trading solutions.


https://youtu.be/v47agOa8ms8

Enjoy The Video.........William

 

[William Gilday]

Welcome to Asia Traders May 20th, 2016

Hello traders good to be back with you as we are finally at Friday. The dollar continues to to strengthen and is now above 95 on the dollar index. Oil continues to stay in a range now at 47.00$ P/B and I think will will settle at about 50.00$ in the next month or so. The dollar pairs really have done well yesterday and made some good moves.

We have to be cautious today as traders will take profit in the sessions they trade. OK let us take a look at the close of markets from yesterday.

(US) Market Close Summary **Headlines**- Fed's Dudley backs FOMC minutes: markets were underestimating tightening probability for Jun/Jul FOMC meeting - Walmart stock has best day since early 90's after strong Q1 report and outlook- May Philly Fed reading uninspiring, tracks Empire manufacturing outlook- Apr US Leading Index beats expectations- Monsanto-Bayer AG deal met with modest skepticism - South Africa Central Bank leaves rates unchanged post hawkish commentary- Commodity prices pressured by stronger dollar and Fed expectations- Disappearance of EgyptAir flight still a mystery; initial reports of finding wreckage and possible explosion have been withdrawn**European post close highlights**- (GR) Greece reportedly may receive more in next bailout payment round than originally planned (up to €11B instead of scheduled €5.7B) - Handelsblatt- (UK) BOE's Vlieghe (dove): UK economy has lost momentum; unclear how much is due to Brexit referendum - comments from London- DAI.DE: Comments that truck markets have developed weaker than expected; see truck unit FY16 EBIT down significantly y/y_Summary:_US stocks and global commodity markets came into the NY open still under pressure. Outstanding earnings reports from market darlings Cisco and Salesforce.com along with a surprisingly upbeat results out of Walmart failed to counter the narrative that the Fed is now poised to move in June. NY Fed's Dudley added credence to the changing market expectations when he echoed yesterday's FOMC minutes by indicating markets had been underestimating the probability of a summer rate hike. US Treasury markets saw very modest risk-off flows benefit pricing with yields falling back a few basis points from the week's highs. The Dollar index added to and consolidated gains above the 95 mark.After the close, Gap reported in line with expectations but announced it would close 75 international stores, including 53 Old Navy locations in Japan. Ross declined in extended trading after missing revenue and same-store sales targets, citing unfavorable timing of packaway-related costs. In the tech sector, Autodesk topped estimates on earnings, but projected a wider than expected Q2 loss. Applied Materials beat on its top and bottom line and guided Q3 well above analyst forecasts, noting it booked its highest orders in 15 years, and the - Source TradeTheNews.com


Traders we have only data today is in the U.S. session that is high impact the CAD has retail sales. There is no data in this Asia session.

Thank you traders and we will talk soon........William

 

[William Gilday]

Welcome To Asia On A Monday May 23rd, 2016

Hello traders and good to be back with you as we start a new trading week. Traders just a note that Canada is on a Holiday today.

Just some thoughts on what I see, well the last two trading days last week we observed very little price action as on Friday the EURUSD only move less than 40 pip range. The markets are looking closely on Oil and the dollar as it continues to be strong above 95 on the dollar index. The biggest issue I feel is traders are really watching what the Fed is going to do in June in reference to a rate hike, this could mean some very slow trading days as we get close to there meeting. There is only one high impact news event today in the London session so today will be a technical trading day.

OK traders let us look at the weekly summary from last week...

TradeTheNews.com Weekly Market Update: Markets Reprice Fed Policy Risks The FOMC minutes out on Wednesday drove a major reconsideration of the Fed's policy outlook this week. With the sense that the economic weakness of the first quarter was passing and a bottom had been found in energy markets, Fed officials were out in force telling markets they were wrongly pricing in a more cautious Fed policy view. Risk assets swooned with the repricing action that followed the minutes on Wednesday, but the impact was notably short-lived and equities were already climbing higher on Friday. Separately, China released a raft of weak April economic data last weekend, but even that had no more than a passing impact on global markets and commodity prices, suggesting that a newfound sense of robustness appears to be supporting global markets. Equity markets churned sideways and for the week the DJIA slipped 0.2%, the S&P eked out a 0.3% gain, and the Nasdaq added 1.1%.The FOMC minutes indicated that most Fed participants feel current and future conditions in economic activity, labor markets and inflation could be supportive of tighter policy by the time the committee meets in June. The language echoed the FOMC position last October that economic trends were already likely to justify a December rate hike, although analysts caution that the corresponding passage in the April minutes was more conditional. Most importantly, the FOMC did not reach a consensus about whether conditions had already been fulfilled, but agreed that a rate hike would become likely if the economy improved further, and remained divided about whether that improvement would actually materialize. Fed fund futures significantly repriced the chances of a June rate hike in the latter half of the week, rising from around 4% on Monday to around 30% at week's end (off the 35% chance seen in the immediate aftermath of the minutes).A chorus of Fed speak accompanied the report, aiding the overall repricing theme. Ahead of the minutes, Fed moderates Kaplan, Lockhart and Williams emphasized that rates need to start rising and that the June meeting would very much be live. Later in the week, Dudley said that if his personal economic forecast is on track, then June or July tightening is a reasonable expectation, while Lacker said he would like four rate hikes this year and chastised markets for overestimating how likely the Fed was to pause its tightening campaign. The greenback saw its third straight week of gains, with the dollar index rising to near two-month highs in the wake of the minutes. Commodities prices suffered, and crude prices paused on their march back toward $50.Last weekend saw the release of disappointing China April retail, industrial output, and fixed asset investment reports. Retail sales fell to an 11-month low and industrial output was lower than expected, restrained by the key power generation component, which returned to contraction. The M2 money supply fell to a 10-month low and new loans hit a 6-month low. Property prices were a rare bright spot: home prices posted their fastest growth in two years in April, with gains in regional centers indicating a broader recovery beyond major cities. Earlier this year, a brace of terrible Chinese economic data would have driven big declines across global markets, but today markets have reconciled themselves to the "slowing China" theme and traders have more pressing issues to worry about. Chinese officials kept up a drumbeat of commentary to drive home the "stability" message, and Premier Li Keqiang once again repeated that Beijing would be able to keep economic growth "within a reasonable range." - Source TradeTheNews.com

Thank you traders and have a profitable trading day today and we will talk soon.......William