Trading Room: Asian Session

[William Gilday]

Welcome Traders Friday June 3rd, 2016

Traders good to be back with you as we start our Asia session on this busy Friday. Today is NFP in the U.S. session, I am sure the Fed is going to watch the numbers very close. We had good numbers from ADP data.

The issues are again Oil as OPEC could not agree on any limits to oil production. Oil still is hovering the 50.00$ P/B levels at the close. The GBP is volatile as we get closer to the Brexit vote. Look to me the GBP will stay in the Euro.

OK traders let us take a look at how we closed after the N.Y. session.

(US) Market Close Summary **Headlines**- US jobs market rolls on with another solid ADP employment report- ECB only tweaks inflation forecast higher after leaving rates unchanged- Oil markets look past OPEC to focus on weekly US inventory draws- (US) May ISM New York: 37.2 v 57.0 prior (weakest reading since April 2009)- Fed's Kaplan: may make sense to raise rates at one of next two meetings- JPM: CEO: economy might be accelerating but it's hard to tell for sure - Bernstein conf comments- US Treasury yields drift lower with curve flatteners remaining in vogue (2-10-year spread approaching 90 bps)- Gap, Broadcom rally afterhours on strong results**European post close highlights**- (DE) Germany Fin Min Schaeuble: there may be room to lower taxes after next year's election to a certain extent, but not that much- NVO: Three-year data show early response to Saxenda(R) resulted in improvements in weight loss and cardiometabolic risk factors_Summary:_US traders arrived at their desks largely focused on events occurring overseas despite another solid reading from the US labor market. The ECB's decision to leave rates unchanged didn't surprise anyone, though the staff projections didn't nudge up their inflation forecast as much as many had expected. The Euro lost modest ground on the news and Bund futures firmed. Also not surprising, OPEC ministers were unable to come to any agreement on reintroducing an output ceiling which initially sent crude prices lower. Oil price rebounded though, after EIA weekly inventory data showed a draw across all three categories. The US Treasury market saw flows throughout the session send yields lower to levels not since the day after the releases of the hawkish FOMC minutes. S&P500 reversed initial morning declines, extending its melt-up higher to close above the technically pivotal 2,100 for its best close since Nov 2015. Healthcare names were especially strong while Utilities lagged.**Markets**- Dow Jones +0.3%- S&P500 +0.3%- Nasdaq +0.4% - US 2-yr: -1bps at 0.89%- 10-yr: -4bps at 1.81%- 30-yr: -4bps at 2.59%- 2-10 spread: -3bps at 0.92% **Commodities**: - July crude oil $49.06, +0.1%- August Gold $1,213/oz, -0.1% - Source TradeTheNews.com

Thank you traders and we will talk soon....William

 

[William Gilday]

Welcome traders to a new week June 6th, 2016 In Asia

Hello traders and good to be back with you in a new week and should be exciting as NFP was a disaster and had terrible numbers and the June rate hike is off the table. Just a note New Zealand is on a holiday as it is Queens Birthday today. The only high impact news today is Fed Chair Yellen speaks today in the U.S. session.

Traders let me give you a update of some data that I feel we should know as we go forward in our week ahead. So after the NFP was a terrible data release we now know there is no rate hike and so what can we see this week. Remember the U.S. markets closed on Friday and was a bad day all in the red.

OK traders let us take a look:

(UK) Latest Brexit poll: 41% for staying in EU; 43% for leaving; 21% undecided - TNS poll *NOTE May 17th: (UK) Latest Brexit poll: 38% for staying in EU; 41% for leaving; 21% undecided - TNS poll Related ( GBP/USD GILTS EWU POLITIX - Source TradeTheNews.com

(US) Fed watcher Hilsenrath (WSJ): Rate increase in June is "almost surely off the table" after latest jobs data; July still possible though less likely - Says some officials may prefer to wait till September, provided economy picks up during the summer.- Fed may want to look at business investment data for Q2, which will be released with Q2 GDP after the July meeting. Q1 investment saw some softening, possibly foreshadowing the subsequent hiring slowdown.- Says futures markets now put a 4% probability on a rate increase in June, 31% on a move in July and 48% on a move by September. Related ( EUR/USD USD/JPY JPY/USD TLT IEF SHY ) - Source TradeTheNews.com

Traders this is last weeks update after the markets closed :

TradeTheNews.com Weekly Market Update: Jobs Data Flop Delays Fed Hike; ECB and OPEC Stand Pat Trading volumes were a bit light this week after the Memorial Day holiday weekend in the US, although markets did not lack for dramatic headlines. The ECB confirmed its corporate bond buying program will start next week. OPEC was unable to agree on any formal production quotas, but members showed they might be more cooperative in the future. In Japan, after months of prevarication, Prime Minister Abe confirmed he would delay a sales tax increase for 30 months. On Friday, the US May jobs report widely missed even the lowest estimates as non-farm payrolls came close to a six-year low and the prior two months were revised lower. After the very poor jobs numbers, Fed fund futures heavily discounted the chances of a rate hike in June and July. The dollar saw its steepest one-day plunge is six months while gold shot up 2.5%. Interest rates fell globally and the US Treasury curve held near some of the flattest levels seen since 2008. Bank stocks finished the week under modest pressure, giving back a portion of the gains seen after the hawkish April FOMC minutes. Nevertheless most major US indices remain within striking distance of all-time highs. For the week the DJIA slipped 0.4%, the S&P500 was flat, and the Nasdaq edged up 0.2%. The May non-farm payrolls sank to 38K from 123K in April, widely missing expectations for a +160K advance. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.7%, the lowest since November 2007, as Americans left the labor force. The number of jobs added in April was also revised downward to 123K from 160K. The report indicated a broad hiring slowdown, including payroll declines in construction, manufacturing and mining. There was one bright spot in the report: average hourly earnings rose by 0.2% after a 0.4% gain in April. In the wake of the report, Goldman Sachs' Chief Economist Jan Hatzius said there was no chance for a Fed rate hike in June and only a 40% chance for a July hike. Fed fund futures rapidly repriced after the report, with traders seeing only a 4% chance of a June rate increase, down from a 25% probability earlier. The greenback had its biggest one-day decline in six months, as the dollar index dropped back toward 94 from 95.5. The EUR/USD spiked to 1.3500 from 1.1150, and the USD/JPY saw an over 2% move. Many emerging market currencies saw even larger gains against the dollar.Fed Governor Brainard commented that the jobs report was disappointing and puzzling. She concluded that it would be advantageous to wait for more data before raising rates, saying the risk of waiting is less than the risk of raising rates prematurely. She also worried that an affirmative Brexit vote could cause a significant adverse reaction in the markets. Fed Chair Yellen will likely raise the same concerns in a speech coming up on Monday.In other key US economic data, the April PCE inflation report was subdued, with no discernable pick-up seen in the Fed's key gauge of US inflation levels. The May Chicago PMI report and the Dallas Fed factory ind - Source TradeTheNews.com

Traders as we look to the week ahead we hope to see the dollar index stay above the 95 level and I have to say it is a good chance it will go back to 94. That is not a good thing. I feel we will have a crazy Forex market this week and we just have to ride the storm maybe a good week to go on holiday. I do not have that option if I did I would not trade this week. For the traders who are trading like my self we must trade smart not on instinct and have confirmation on all our trades.

Traders Asia today has no real data to move the markets so we wait for London open.

Thank you traders and we will talk soon.....William

 

[William Gilday]

Wecome to Asia June 7th, 2016

Hello traders qwlcome to Asia today as we look at a very weak data day today and to be honest the rest of the week. However today we have a high Impact release in in Asia as the Aussie will have a rate decision folllowed by a statement we are not expecting any changes, Also in the NY session we have the CAD Ivey PMI in the U.S. Session.

The big issue today is the speech from FOMC Yellen was not as Hawkish and she will continue to watch job numbers in the coming months as she does expect to raise rates at some point. The dollar continues to weaken with this statement and we would say there will be little movement until we see some other data to get the dollar back on track.

OK let us take a look at the close of the markets for yesterday:

(US) Market Close Summary **Headlines**- Fed Chair Yellen: Still expect gradual interest rate increases, positive economic outlook outweighs the negatives, shouldn't read too much into one month's data- Fed's Bullard (voter, hawkish): chance of June rate hike is much lower after May jobs report; better to raise rates after good economic news - press interview- (US) May Labor Market Conditions Index Change: -4.8 v -0.8e (lowest since May 2009)- American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) presentations moves stocks (MRTX ARRY IMMU ACAD DNAI OCUL MDVN)- T-Mobiles offers customers company shares, movie tickets, pizzas and more in latest Un-carrier promotion.- (NI) Production of Nigeria Bonney Light crude curtailed by ~170K bpd following recent militant attacks on pipelines - press**European post close highlights**- (GR) Germany said to request EU adopt stricter car emissions test laws - press_Summary:_US stock markets advanced right from the open as traders eagerly awaited commentary from the Fed Chair. Yellen nodded to a concerning May Labor market report but also highlighted the importance of not putting too much emphasis on one month's data. She also reiterated that gradual rate hikes will still likely be appropriate, but unlike her last comments she did not reference "in the coming months". On the whole, markets took her words and stride. Stocks continued to rally and the Dollar sold off modestly, even as US treasury yields were slightly higher. Oil prices pushed back up against the $50 with Nigeria supply issues remaining a talking point for risk of diminished supply. Basic Materials and Industrials were among the top performing sectors on the day, while Technology and Utilities lagged.- Dow Jones +0.6%- S&P500 +0.5%- Nasdaq +0.5% - US 2-yr: +1bps at 0.80%- 10-yr: +2bps at 1.72%- 30-yr: +3bps at 2.55%- 2-10 spread: +1bps at 0.92% - Source TradeTheNews.com

OK traders we will come back to you after the Aussie data release late in the Asia seson, We will talk soon .....William

 

[William Gilday]

Aussie Data Releas Update June 7th, 1960

This is the release of the Rate announcement as we see the AUDUSD on the rise from the data.

This is the release:

*(AU) RBA LEAVES CASH RATE TARGET UNCHANGED AT 1.75%; AS EXPECTED Policy:- Unchanged policy is consistent with CPI returning to targetInflationDomestic:Exchange Rate:- Reiterated appreciating exchange rate could complicate economic adjustment.Global: Related ( AUD/USD AUD/JPY AUD/NZD EWA NZD/AUD ) - Source TradeTheNews.com

Thank you traders we will talk soon......William

 

[William Gilday]

RBA Rate Statement Just Released. June 7th, 2016

RBA Rate Statement:


*(AU) RBA LEAVES CASH RATE TARGET UNCHANGED AT 1.75%; AS EXPECTED Statement:At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.75 per cent.The global economy is continuing to grow, at a lower than average pace. Several advanced economies have recorded improved conditions over the past year, but conditions have become more difficult for a number of emerging market economies. China's growth rate moderated further in the first part of the year, though recent actions by Chinese policymakers are supporting the near-term outlook.Commodity prices are above recent lows, but this follows very substantial declines over the past couple of years. Australia's terms of trade remain much lower than they had been in recent years.In financial markets, conditions have generally been calmer for the past several months following the period of volatility early in the year. Attention is now turning to some particular event risks. Funding costs for high-quality borrowers remain very low and, globally, monetary policy remains remarkably accommodative.In Australia, recent data suggest overall growth is continuing, despite a very large decline in business investment. Other areas of domestic demand, as well as exports, have been expanding at a pace at or above trend. Labour market indicators have been more mixed of late, but are consistent with continued expansion of employment in the near term.Inflation has been quite low. Given very subdued growth in labour costs and very low cost pressures elsewhere in the world, this is expected to remain the case for some time.Low interest rates have been supporting domestic demand and the lower exchange rate overall is helping the traded sector. Over the past year, growth in credit to businesses has picked up, even as that to households has moderated a little. These factors are all assisting the economy to make the necessary economic adjustments, though an appreciating exchange rate could complicate this.Indications are that the effects of supervisory measures have strengthened lending standards in the housing market. Separately, a number of lenders are also taking a more cautious attitude to lending in certain segments. Dwelling prices have begun to rise again recently. But considerable supply of apartments is scheduled to come on stream over the next couple - Source TradeTheNews.com


Thank you traders and we will talk soon......William

 

[William Gilday]

Welcome Traders To Asia on June 8th, 2016

Hello traders good to be back with you as we hit the mid-week period. In Asia today we have JPY GDP Q on Q for Q1. In late Asia we have CNY Trade balance today should be a market mover. The rest of the day we only have one high impact in the London and U.S. sessions today. So we are looking at a technical trading day today, however I feel we will get plenty of price action. I am staying away from the GBP pairs today as we are getting closer to the brexit vote in two weeks. On the whole the markets are looking upbeat across the board and that is a good thing for us traders.

OK as I looked at data today I think the markets will respond to oil closing just above the 50.00$ P/B price level.

OK let us look at what happened at the close of markets yesterday:

(US) Market Close Summary Headlines- Interest rates slip globally most equity indices advance- US Q1 productivity remains disappointing while unit labor costs rise- Valeant shares fall to fresh lows after slashing forecast- Biogen swoons after opicinumab results fail to meet endpoints in MS study- Ralph Lauren and Navistar lower the bar but buyers step in- Biotech weighs on NASDAQ - Bland US 3-year Treasury sale comes with small tail and lower BTC- US April consumer credit falls more than expected- WTI crude closes above $50 for the first time in nearly a year- FFIV: Said to have hired Goldman as advisor to gauge takeover interest - pressEuropean post close highlights- (GR) German 10-year Bund yield falls to record low below 0.05%Summary:US stock indices continued to push higher despite weakness in some key sectors. Interest rates declined led by the German 10-year Bund yield which fell to a fresh record low ahead of the ECB implementing corporate bond purchases. Biotech names were heavy largely led by Biogen after releasing disappointing Phase II results. Airlines climbed on word of more price hikes being pushed through into the summer high season, which helped the transports. Basic Materials / Energy sectors were the outperformers by a long shot, as oil prices pushed above $50/brl. Corporate bond offerings picked up momentum once again with Apple, Deere, Marriott, and Goldman Sachs among the names tapping fixed income markets. After the close, World Bank updated its 2016 projections in the Global Economic Prospects report, cutting global GDP target to 2.4% from 2.9% as a result of "more pronounced weakness" and rising risks. US outlook was reduced to 1.9% from 2.7%, Euro area trimmed to 1.6% from 1.7%, and China affirmed at 6.7%. - Dow Jones +0.1%- S&P500 +0.1%- Nasdaq -0.1% - Source TradeTheNews.com

Thank you traders and we will talk soon......William

 

[William Gilday]

JPY Data Released GDP QoQ [Q1]

OK lets us take a look at the data that was just released:


*(JP) JAPAN Q1 FINAL GDP Q/Q: 0.5% V 0.5%E; ANNUALIZED GDP: 1.9% V 1.9%E - Nominal GDP: 0.6% v 0.6%e- GDP Deflator: % v 0.9%e Components (q/q):- Private consumption: 0.6% v 0.5%e v 0.5% prelim - Private non-res investment (corporate CAPEX): -0.7% v -0.4%e, v -1.4% prelim- Exports: % v 0.6% prelim- Imports: % v -0.5% prelim- Private residential investment: % v -0.8% prelim- Public investment: % v 0.3% prelim- Govt consumption: % v 0.7% prelim Related ( USD/JPY EWJ JPY/USD JOF JGB ) - Source TradeTheNews.com


*(JP) JAPAN APR CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE: ¥1.88T V ¥2.30TE; ADJUSTED CURRENT ACCOUNT: ¥1.63T V ¥2.01TE; TRADE BALANCE: ¥697B V ¥919BE Related ( USD/JPY EWJ JPY/USD JOF JGB ) - Source TradeTheNews.com


The markets responded very little as the USDJPY fell only 15 pips on the data release.

Thank you traders and we will talk soon.....William

 

[William Gilday]

Welcome Traders To Asia June 9th, 2016

Hello traders good to be back with you on a Thursday as we approach the end of our trading week. We have today a slow economic calendar. The NZD did not change there interest rate as it was expected to make a move. We have CNY CPI in Asia session today, And that is all the high impact news for the day today so we will see a technical trading day today.

The markets closed and the U.S markets continue to be robust and making highs across the board. On the Forex side we observed dollar weakness as the dollar index remains at 93.88. This is way below the 95 we observed last week.

OK let us take a look at the close of the markets for yesterday :

(US) Market Close Summary **Headlines**- US indices track higher led by cyclicals and small caps- US April JOLTS report registers fresh record high- Crude oil prices close at nearly 1-year highs despite rise in weekly US production figures- Commodity markets catch bid on hopes of global growth rebound- Association of American Railroads weekly rail traffic report for week ending June 3rd: 455K carloads and intermodal units, -17.3% y/y- Solid US 10-year reopening highlighted by robust overseas demand (10-year Bund yield hits fresh record low)- AmSurg said to be in merger talks with Envision - press**European post close highlights**- (GR) German 10-year Bund yield falls to record low below 0.05%_Summary:_US indices continued to push towards all-time highs today. The S&P is within 15 points of the May 2015 mark, while the Dow closed above 18,000 after testing the level yesterday. Cyclical sectors like homebuilders, miners, and industrials all performed well during the session. Small caps participated too, pushing the Russell 2000 back up towards 1,200 and to new highs for the year. The demand for US Treasury bonds held strong. Investment funds, foreign central banks, and other indirect bidders purchased a record 74% of the notes offered in today's 10-year reopening. Commodity prices moved higher after Chinese trade data, and the recent softening in market expectations on Fed rate tightening buoyed sentiment. WTI crude closed above $51, a new closing high, silver surged 4%, and gold added 1.4%.- Dow Jones +0.4%- S&P500 +0.3%- Nasdaq +0.3% - US 2-yr: flat at 0.78%- 10-yr: -1bps at 1.71%- 30-yr: -2bps at 2.51%- 2-10 spread: -1bps at 0.93% **Commodities**: - Source TradeTheNews.com


Thank you traders and I will talk with you soon......William

 

[William Gilday]

Welcome To Asia Friday June 10th, 2016

Hello traders we have made it to Friday the end of our trading week however a long trading day ahead. The data releases today is very slow as high impact is in the U.S. session with the CAD interest Rate and Employment Change. In Asia we have the JPY PPI as that is low impact.

Let us take a look at the close of markets yesterday:

(US) Market Close Summary **Headlines**- Weekly jobless claims fall to lowest level since Oct 2000- Interest rates continue to fall globally- Demand for US 30-year bond sale holds strong despite lowest yield at sale in more than a year- Natural gas prices surge after weekly build misses expectations- Bank of Canada: while household vulnerabilities have moved higher, Canada's recovery means overall risk remains the same - Financial System Review- (US) Fed reports Q1 Financial Accounts Net Worth: +$0.837T v +$2.180T q/q; Total household net worth: $88.1T v $86.80T q/q- ETE and Williams Receive FTC Clearance for Proposed Acquisition; trial on disputed tax opinion to be held June 20-21- President Obama endorses Hillary Clinton- YHOO: Reportedly receives multiple bids for core business at or above $5B - press**European post close highlights**- (GR) German 10-year Bund yield falls to record low below 0.05%_Summary:_Markets continue to focus on interest rates and their trajectory lower on a global basis. Both UK and German 10-year yields closed at new all-time low, while the US 10-year is pushing back towards Feb levels. Curves continue to flatten holding the US 2-10 year spread at levels not seen since 2007. Hand-wringing over the underlying causes and implications of historically low/negative yields weighed on risk sentiment early in the US session. Banking stocks opened lower and European bourses finished down roughly 1%, before US stocks found some footing late in the session. Crude oil, copper, and grain prices all turned lower, but gold prices moved up again, now up some 6% from the recent May 31st low. The week's final Treasury sale saw decent demand for the 30-year reopening, especially in light of the recent run-up in prices. Following the close, H&R Block shares soared on an earnings beat and dividend increase. Urban Outfitters dipped as it disclosed same-store sales are down mid-single-digits so far in Q2. And Mattress Firm disappointed the street with a revenue and earnings miss and a cut to its full year guidance. - Source TradeTheNews.com

Thank you traders and we will talk soon.....William

 

[William Gilday]

Hello Traders Welcome To A New Week Monday June 13th, 2016

Hello traders good to be back with you as we start a new week in Forex trading on this Monday in Asia.

Just some things to note today Australia is on holiday for the Queen's Birthday. There is only one high impact news release today and that is in Asia as we get CNY Industrial Production YoY. This is going to be a technical trade day. I am seeing that the global world is waiting for the vote from the UK on the referendum one week from Thursday.

The Forex charts we see some mixed price action and I feel we will see that for the next week or so. The Fed is not going to do anything and I do not thing the ECB will make any moves. Foe the next eight trading days we should trade the technical and just be very alert to price action in my case I just feel we need to scalp the market until the completion of the vote.

OK let us take a look at the week in review this is long however worth your time to read it as there is some really good information what we could expect this week in all three trading sessions.

TradeTheNews.com Weekly Market Update: Caution Abounds Ahead of FOMC, Brexit Vote Global markets were volatile this week as risk assets first recovered from the let-down of last week's May US jobs report and then succumbed to global jitters as funds rotated into fixed income. The ongoing oil market recovery propelled both WTI and Brent firmly back over $50 early in the week, helping boost the broader energy sector. Solidifying belief that the Fed will need to hold off on rate hikes at least little bit longer has helped gold and silver prices reach one month highs as well. In a widely anticipated speech on Monday, Fed Chair Yellen said nothing at to upset the apple cart, and there is a sense that a Fed rate increase in September is emerging as the new favorite view, although July is still touted as a 'live' meeting as well. The dollar arrested its decline without testing the lows seen in early May. Mid-week the DJIA and S&P500 approached but did not hit new all-time highs, as Brexit fears and interest rate jitters took over and pushed risk assets lower. For the week, the DJIA gained 0.3%, the S&P slipped 0.1%, and the Nasdaq fell 1%. Treasury prices soared globally as panicky investors plowed into fixed income assets this week. The toxic combination of negative interest rates at the Bank of Japan, the ECB, and several other European central banks, fear of Brexit, and deep uncertainty about Fed rate hikes have fostered an extraordinary low yield environment. On Friday, the yield on the German 10-year bund sank to an all-time low of 0.025%, and some analysts suggested it could go to zero soon. Yields have fallen so far that more than $10 trillion of government debt worldwide is now trading with negative yields - Bill Gross took to Twitter to call the huge pile of negative-yielding sovereign a "supernova that will explode one day." The Japanese 10-year benchmark yield touched a record low of -0.15%. The 10-year UST yield fell as low as 1.649%, while the 30-year yield is at its lowest point since February 2015, at 2.45%, further flattening the yield curve to levels not seen since 2007. The 2-year/10-year UST spread has sunk below 90 bps, driving big losses this week in US financial stocks. Bond market analysts commented that the sustained level of demand for US Treasuries at this week's 10- and 30-year reopenings largely appeared to be driven by foreign buyers desperate for yield. Some better US jobs data helped balance the narrative of a slowing labor market that emerged after last week's dire May payrolls report. The April JOLTS survey - Fed Chair Yellen's preferred gauge of US labor market health - saw an all-time high of 5.8 million job openings, up slightly from 5.76 million openings at the end of March. April hires fell to 5.1 million, slightly lower than the previous month's 5.3 million, while the key quits rate fell to 2.0% from 2.1% prior. Meanwhile, the jobless claims data showed the number of Americans filing for benefits unexpectedly fell in the week ended June 4th. Initial claims fell much more than expected, while continuing claims dropped 77,000 to 2.10 million, the lowest level since October 2000.The annual US-China bilateral summit in Beijing saw tough rhetoric from both sides, with economic concerns taking a back seat to the tense situation in the South China Sea. Chinese officials blamed tensions in the South China Sea on the provocations of "certain countries for their own selfish interests." Secretary of State Kerry responded that China's plans to set up an air defense identification zone in area would be "a - Source TradeTheNews.com

Thank you traders and we will talk soon....... William