Trading Room: Asian Session

[William Gilday]

Asia Session May 3rd On A Tuesday

Hello traders welcome back, I have to say the market is very volatile as the dollar continues to fall to lows below 93. The Yen continues to gain strength as it has now become a concern from comments from BOJ Gov. Koroda. So today we will be busy in Asia late in the session as the Aussie has rate decision and rate statement. We also have CNY news with the Caixin Manufacturing PMI. The London and the U.S. session has very little data today, however I see another volatile day as traders are watching the dollar and the Yen very close. OK let us take a look at the close of markets and what happened.

(US) Market Close Summary **Headlines**- US Dollar remains under pressure (USD/JPY new 18-month lows)- April ISM manufacturing data soft, prices paid component jumps- Indices open flat but upside momentum builds- Gold prices surpass $1,300; silver tops $18 - ECB's Draghi: low global rates are a byproduct of challenges to global growth - comments from Frankfurt- Apple share decline again, sitting just above Aug 2015 low- BOJ's Kuroda: the current rise in the Yen could have an adverse impact on Japanese economy - comments from Frankfurt**European post close highlights**- (CH) SNB's Jordan: negative rates and FX interventions will stabilize price developments and relieve pressure on Swiss franc, which remains significantly overvalued- (DE) ECB's Lautenschlaeger (Germany): sharing fiscal risk can reduce incentives to pursue sound fiscal policies- BPOST.BE: Reports Q1 Net €96M v €97Me, adj EBITDA €176M v €171Me, Rev €604.5M v €606Me_Summary:_The US stock market opened relatively flat, but indices moved higher, gaining momentum as the session wore on. The breadth was not particularly impressive, with advancers only modestly topping decliners. US Treasury prices slipped lower after a mixed bag of April manufacturing data. Overall the declining US Dollar continues to be a key story line heading towards the G-7 summit later this month. The USD/JPY hit a fresh-18 month low, while the Euro climbed back above 1.15 for the first time since last summer. The lower exchange rates are seen as a likely boon to US corporate profits, as well as a tailwind for the reflation trade being seen across various commodity classes. Apple closed down for its eighth straight day, which is the company's longest losing streak since 1998.After the close, AIG posted a Q1 miss on earnings, noting the effect of market volatility on its investment performance. Anadarko reported a slight beat on expected profit losses, but disappointed on its revenue numbers, sending shares sliding post-market. Yelp shares popped as Greenlight Capital disclosed it took a new stake during Q1.**Markets** - Source TradeTheNews.com

Traders we will keep you updated today as all this data comes out in the next five hours so it will be a good session to sit back and let the data come out and then we we can look for some entry's.

Thank you traders and we will talk soon.......William

 

[William Gilday]

Aussie And CNY Update

Hello traders the data has just been released with very little price action as I think the market is waiting for the Rate Decision to be released later in this Asia session.

*(CN) CHINA APR CAIXIN PMI MANUFACTURING: 49.4 V 49.8E; 14th month of contractionComments:The Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI for April came in at 49.4, down 0.3 points from more... (related AUD/USD CNY/USD CYB EEM EUR/CNY EUR/USD FXI PGJ USD/CNY)08:38(KR) South Korea Defense Official Yoo: North Korea remains capability to test nuclear device - financial press (related EWY)08:35(CN) Preview: China APR Caixin Manufacturing PMI data expected at 21:45ET (01:45GMT)**Consensus expectation:- 49.8e v 49.7 prior- Would mark 14th consecutive month of contra more... (related CNY/USD CYB FXI USD/CNY)08:30*(AU) AUSTRALIA MAR BUILDING APPROVALS M/M: +3.7% (3-month high) V -2.0%E; Y/Y: -6.5% V -14.0%E- no revisions. - Source TradeTheNews.com


Thank you traders and we will talk soon.......William

 

[William Gilday]

Aussie Rate Data

Hello traders the RBA CUT rates this was unexpected her is the data.


11:30 *(AU) RBA CUTS CASH RATE TARGET BY 25BPS TO 1.75%, NOT EXPECTED **Insight: The RBA has now cut its Cash Rate on eleven occasions in the current easing cycle that began in Oct 2011 for the RBA. The RBA has now cut rates by a total of 325bps. Related ( AUD/USD AUD/JPY AUD/NZD EWA NZD/AUD ) - Source TradeTheNews.com

RBA stated that housing was an issue and the Aussie has moved the market let us take a look.

11:30 [AUD/USD] Falls over 100pips below $0.76 after RBA rate cut; not expected - Source TradeTheNews.com

OK traders we were expecting some movement in this Asia session and we have this unexpected rate cut.

Thank you traders and we will talk soon.....William

 

[William Gilday]

Welcome To Asia Session May4th, 2016

Hello traders we have started the session off with a kick as we had data from NZD Unemployment rate has increased from 5.5 to 5.7 and Employment change was very good at 5.7 VS 5.5. Traders remember that Japan is on holiday today for the second day.The data for today is minimal as we have London data from the GBP and in the U.S. we have ADP today. That is all as we get ready for the NFP on Friday and I expect the markets to slow down in the next day or so as traders wait for NFP.

OK traders let me give you some numbers for today and the close of trading yesterday.

05:45 *(NZ) NEW ZEALAND Q1 UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 5.7% V 5.5%E; EMPLOYMENT CHANGE Q/Q: 1.2% (1-year high) V 0.6%E; Y/Y: 2.0% V 1.3%E - Participation rate 69.0% v 68.6%e; biggest rise in 11 years; Prior revised higher to 68.5% from 68.4%- Avg Hourly earnings 0.3% v 0.5%e- Private wages ex overtime 0.4% v 0.3%e; Inc overitme 0.4% v 0.3%e- Prior unemployment rate revised higher to 5.4% from 5.3%- Q/Q employment change revised higher to 1.0% from 0.9%; Y/Y revised higher to 1.4% from 1.3% Related ( NZD/USD JOBSX ENZL ) - Source TradeTheNews.com


(US) Market Close Summary **Headlines**- US dollar reverses course and commodity prices sell off- Stock markets drop on softer global data and surprise Aussie rate cut- (US) Fed's Lockhart (moderate, non-voter): Should view June as a live meeting unless evidence is weak; two hikes in 2016 is certainly possible- Treasury bonds rally in Europe and the US on flight from risk assets- European banking results weigh on entire sector- Most major auto manufacturers hit April sales expectations, GM falls short- Pfizer and Clorox quarterly reports standout- Apple shares break downtrend after CEO Cook appears on 'Mad Money'**European post close highlights**- CS.FR: Reports Q1 Rev €31.8B v €31.5B y/y- FNTN.DE: Reports Q1 Rev €749.2M v €748.5M y/y, EBITDA €89.1M v €89Me; affirms FY forecast- (JP) BOJ Gov Kuroda: reiterates BOJ will take additional easing measures if deemed necessary - comments in Frankfurt_Summary:_Global markets were jolted by continued weak growth readings in China and Europe coupled with the Australian Central Bank's decision to lower rates. The Japanese stock market was closed for the first of three sessions, which may have exacerbated volatility. The air came out of a swath of risk assets, including stocks and commodities, while money found a home in Treasury debt. The moves were complemented by a significant reversal in the US Dollar. Early in the session, the Dollar index touched levels not seen since the first days of 2015 before bouncing a big figure back towards 93. The USD/JPY neared 105.50 before climbing back above 106. Oil, copper, iron ore, and grain prices all declined notably, breaking the recent trends. US stock traders found various pockets of strength largely tied to Q1 earnings reports. The benchmark US 10-year yield shed 7 basis points, falling back below 1.80%, while the German 10-year bund yield fell a like amount.CBS shares were boosted after hours as the media giant posted beats on earnings and revenue, citing big advertising sales from this year's Super Bowl. Avis Budget earnings came in below expectations due to weak demand growth and unexpectedly soft pricing in the Americas. Etsy rose post-market after reporting a surprise profit, with its top and bottom line results lifted by gains in services sold to its merchandise sellers. **Markets**- Dow Jones -0.8% - Source TradeTheNews.com

Traders I am looking for an active trading today as all the data for the Asia session is out and no further data for the rest of Asia today. Please keep an eye on your economic calendar today.

Thank you traders and we will talk soon.......William

 

[William Gilday]

Hello Welcome to Asia Session On May 5th, 2016

Hello traders and welcome to another trading day. I would say we will start to see a slow down on price action as we get closer to NFP that is released on Friday. Today we have seen the dollar start to gain strength in the last two days however it has been very slow. In the U.S. session we saw ADP have terrible numbers with ISM having very good numbers to help the dollar.

Traders today we have in Asia Retail Sales and in London we have Services PMI, and that is it for high impact news events. I expect a good trading day until we approach London open. Remember we have Japan And Switzerland on holiday today.

OK traders let us take a look at the close of the markets and what we had:

(US) Market Close Summary **Headlines**- ADP employment report reveals slower April jobs growth- April ISM services figures are robust- Crude prices retreat after larger-than-expected build in crude stockpiles- Dollar reversal continues for second straight session- Global equity declines extended - (US) Gov Kasich (R-OH) to suspend presidential campaign- Ira Sohn conf provides little in the way of fireworks- TPUB: Board unanimously rejects Gannetts unsolicited proposal of $12.25/shr, says offer understates the Company's true value**European post close highlights**-(TR) Turkey ruling AKP party reportedly will hold extraordinary congress in 15 days to elect a leader; PM resigns - press- FER.ES: Reports Q1 net €157M v €45Me, EBITDA €194M v €188Me, Rev €2.08B v €2.09Be- KORI.FR: Reports Q1 Rev €730M v €721Me_Summary:_Global equity markets extended declines into the second straight session. PMI revisions in Europe weighed on sentiment ahead of the open, along with an April ADP jobs report that fell well short of expectations. The April ISM services reading remained strong, but risk assets namely equities could not really recover. The selling was broad-based, with the more defensive groups like consumer staples and utilities holding up relatively well. Higher beta groups like biotech and mining led the way lower. The Greenback firmed for the second straight session helping push the USD/JPY briefly above the 107 mark. US Treasury prices continued to drift higher, pressing yields against 1-week lows.After the close, Tesla shares popped higher after reporting a revenue beat and a promising vehicle production outlook. Fitbit fell on weaker than expected Q2 guidance. Whole Foods earnings came in higher than anticipated as company cost-cutting helped to ward off slowing sales growth.**Markets**- Dow Jones -0.6%- S&P500 -0.6%- Nasdaq -0.8% - US 2-yr: -2bps at 0.74% - Source TradeTheNews.com

Thank you traders and I will update when the Aussie news comes out today in the Asia session .......William

 

[William Gilday]

Aussie Retail Sales Release May 5th, 2016

Hello traders the retail sales data has been released and looks like a good number let us take a look.

*(AU) AUSTRALIA MAR TRADE BALANCE (A$): -2.2B V -2.9BE; 23rd straight month of deficit ; smallest deficit in a year - Imports m/m: +1.0% v 0.0% prior- Exports m/m: +4.0% v -1.0% prior- Prior trade balance revised higher to -3.0B from -3.4BComponents:- Exports to China m/m: A$6.62B v A$5.72B prior; 4-month high- Gold exports (12a) m/m: A$1.72B v A$0.89B - Source TradeTheNews.com

*(AU) AUSTRALIA MAR RETAIL SALES M/M: 0.4% (4-month high) V 0.3%E; Q1 CORE Q/Q: 0.5% V 0.7%E - Prior m/m revised higher to 0.1% from 0.0% Related ( AUD/USD EWA ) - Source TradeTheNews.com

OK traders the plan is to wait and see if we get a continuation of Aussie strength for the rest of the day as you can see the data was mixed and we have to wait....

Thank you traders and we will talk soon.....William

 

[William Gilday]

Asia on NFP Friday May 6th, 2016

Hello traders and welcome to NFP Friday and the end of the trading week. I have to say I just looked at six currency pairs and the markets look very flat not much price action as we expected. There is some Aussie news medium impact RBA Monetary Policy statement, We could get some movement I do not think very much. The markets will do nothing until the NFP data in the U.S. session.

So my mentor back in 2007 had a great statement for NFP, It is a good day to go play golf or go back to sleep. Being I am in Thailand I will just relax and go to the beach for lunch and have a three day weekend as I do not trade NFP. I just watch and the charts and enjoy the show haha. I give a lot of credit to traders that are good at trading this event as I am not so I do not.

OK traders let us take a look at what happened after the close of the markets yesterday:

(US) Market Close Summary **Headlines**- Initial jobless climbs climb heading into Apr US labor report- Oil prices lift on raft of production issues- Disappointing Apr comparable sales slam shares of Limited Brands, Zumiez and Costco- Modest Dollar resurgence continues; stocks roll over again led by Transports- (US) Fed's Bullard: still a lot of data ahead of the June FOMC meeting- (US) Fed's Lockhart (moderate, non-voter): "On the fence" regarding the June meeting; too early to say how Q2 GDP will look - CNBC- Mexico Central Bank leaves rates unchanged, as expected- Market scoffs at Tesla production guidance, expects capital raise- AmeriSourceBergen slides on disappointing outlook **European post close highlights**-ENEL.IT: Reportedly near making an offer for Metroweb - press-SFER.IT: Said to be in talks with Eraldo Poletto for CEO position - press_Summary:_US stock indices opened modestly higher but prices rolled over in the NY afternoon. The US Dollar firmed for the third straight session keeping a lid on commodity prices. A raft of production flash points helped send WTI crude oil prices up towards $46, but spent much of the session drifting away from those early levels. Treasury prices moved up again, sending the US 10-year yield back below 1.75% for the first time since mid-April. A slew of Fed speakers gave opinions throughout the day, most affirming that the June FOMC is a live meeting but cautioning more data would be needed to make any rate decisions.After market close, FireEye announced that Mandiant founder would take over as CEO, pushing current CEO DeWalt to the executive chairman role. Activision reported beats on both top and bottom line, noting robust return from its new mobile games acquisition King Digital. GoPro posted revenue numbers above expectations, but announced a delay to the launch of its Karma drone, a key pipeline product. Herbalife reported strong earnings and sales, and the company indicated that it is in advanced stage discussions with the FTC to broker a settlement of around $200M. - Source TradeTheNews.com

Traders I just wanted to mention oil as we see it is now at 45.00$/PB My prediction it will go the 50.00 and stable out there. So as traders watch Gold as we do not want to see oil and gold going in the same direction. Please be alert to this data.

Traders I want to thank you for another great week with you and we will talk the next Asia session.

Enjoy Your Break........William

 

[William Gilday]

Welcome to Asia Monday May 9th, 2016

Hello traders good to be back with you. I Just wanted to get the close of last weeks data to you as early as possible now 5:30 am .

OK this is the news close from last week:


TradeTheNews.com Weekly Market Update: Downside Risks Trump Recovery Hopes Over recent weeks there has been a recurring debate in markets about the prospects for the stalled global economic recovery. Many analysts saw the first quarter as a seasonal aberration and predicted the widespread economic softness would soon to be replaced by green shoots as oil prices rose, China stabilized and the US economy improved. The more pessimistic analysis said the problems seen in the first quarter were indicative of deeper problems, and developments this week seemed to favor the latter camp. The April US jobs report was soft, and the decline in the April US ISM factory data suggested manufacturing was not healing quite as quickly as expected. Other global data was similarly weak. The softer dollar trend appears to have plateaued, with EUR/USD unable to sustain gains above 1.1500 while the USD/JPY appears to holding above 105. A resurgent Dollar weighed on commodity prices in general before production hotspots pushed up oil prices late in the week. Treasury yields drifted lower aided by flows out of the equity markets pushing rates to levels not seen since mid-April. For the week the DJIA lost 0.2%, the S&P lost 0.4% and the NASDAQ fell 0.8%.The April US non-farm payrolls missed expectations, dropping to +160K from the revised +208K figure in March. Unemployment held steady at 5%, while there was a slight uptick in wages. The NFP figure echoed the softness seen in the ADP report out earlier in the week. On Tuesday, Mark Zandi wrote that that "the job market appears to have stumbled in April. Job growth noticeably slowed, with some weakness across most sectors." Analysts suggested the data would greatly lower the chances of a Fed rate hike in June. After the data Fed funds futures repriced for only a 6% chance of a rate increase in June, while odds of a July move were at 24%. Traders now see the first rate increase coming in December.Fed officials had plenty to say after last week's soft Q1 GDP reading, although these comments arrived before the weaker payrolls data. San Francisco Fed President Williams discounted the data, citing similar seasonal patterns in recent years, and asserted it was the GDP data that was out of sync with the rest of the data. The Atlanta Fed's Lockhart expressed concern that the lackluster GDP data could "turn out, in fact, to be persistent." While there will be relatively little Q2 growth data on hand by the June meeting, Lockhart said the probability of a rate move was higher than markets were pricing in. Fed hawk Bullard said there's a pretty big gap between market expectations of rate path and Fed's prior projections, and reiterated June is a "live" meeting for rates, though he was still undecided on the issue. Dallas Fed President Kaplan wants firmer GDP before advocating for another rate, but anticipates another rate hike this summer if the data keeps steady.Chinese data out this week was a mixed bag. The official manufacturing and services PMIs fell slightly in April from March levels, but both remained in expansion territory - barely. The small- and medium-sized company focused Caixin manufacturing and services PMIs also declined in April m/m, with the factory index in contraction for the 14th straight month. Interestingly, prices paid saw good upticks across the board, rising at the highest pace in years. With deflationary effects abating, the outlook continues to improve for commodities demand, but on the whole economists with Commerzbank said the data reflects Beijing's campaign of "managed stabilization." Caixin wrote that the reports indicated the economy lacks a solid foundation for recovery and is still in the process of bottoming out. In the wake of the data, former PBoC advisor Yu Yongding called for the government to implement more fiscal stimulus to avoid an economic hard landing. - Source TradeTheNews.com


OK traders I will get back to you as the Asia session continues . We will talk soon ......William

 

[William Gilday]

Welcome to the Asia session May 10th, 2015

Hello traders greta to be back with you as we start a new trading day. We have a high impact news data release from CNY CPI YoY. After that there is no major news for today. Befoe in Asia we had NZD Electronic Card Retail Sales and that was a good number, not much reaction on the charts. Traders this is a technical trading day. OK let us take a look at what happened yesterday at the close.


(US) Market Close Summary **Headlines**- Commodity price declines weigh on sentiment- Dollar Index pushes higher (USD/JPY reaches 107)- Investors brace for retail portion of earnings season- Fed's Kashkari (non-voter): current monetary policy stance is about right; the data says we should be accommodative - press interview- Viacom: Judge tentatively dismisses Sumner Redstone competency case - press- MDVN: Reportedly has decided to explore a sale; has signed NDAs with Pfizer and Amgen to allow them to obtain confidential information - press- (BR) Brazil Senate impeachment commission: still plan to hold vote on proceeding with impeachment trial this week, as scheduled- Active corporate fixed income calendar with new issues including CVX GWW WM DUK NRG ABBV**European post close highlights**- ENEL.IT: Reports Q1 net €795M v €775Me, EBITDA €4B v €4Be, Rev €17.9B v €19Be- TIT.IT: Said to have made formal offer for Metroweb worth over €820M in cash - press- FGR.FR: Reports Q1 Rev €2.99B v €3.04B y/y; affirms FY16 Rev "slight drop" y/y- (GR) ESM publishes debt relief proposals for Greece; proposed measures would move Greek debt to 73.6% of GDP by 2060 in baseline scenario (vs 104.9% without debt relief) - press_Summary:_US equity trading was mixed for the session, as various sectors headed in different directions. Commodity prices rolled over once again, largely on the back of a firming US Dollar. The energy complex fell across the board along with oil prices. Banks continued to struggle, while many retailers saw modest gains ahead of earnings reports later this week. The NASDAQ outperformed, led by biotechs and healthcare-related names. Corporate bond offerings picked up, highlighted by sizable Chevron and AbbVie multi-tranche offerings. USD/JPY reached the best levels in about a week above 107 briefly.SolarCity shares took a hit post-market close after reporting an earnings miss and cutting guidance for installations. The Gap delivered a foreboding outlook for its upcoming results and announced it is considering a plan to streamline operations, focusing specifically on the struggling Banana Republic and Old Navy brands. **Markets**- Dow Jones -0.2% - Source TradeTheNews.com

Traders thank you for visiting and we will talk with you soon....William

 

[William Gilday]

Hello Traders Welcome To Asia May 11th, 2016

Hello traders good to be back with you as we see dollar strength across the board and the markets closed on a high.We have minimal news today so looks to be another technical day again. Let us look at what happened in the close of the markets.


(US) Market Close Summary **Headlines**- US stocks indices surge to best levels of the month- April JOLTS data hit fresh record high for the series - (US) Atlanta Fed GDPNow: raises Q2 GDP forecast to 2.2% from 1.7% on May 4th- USDA's WASDE report sends grains and the ag complex higher- US 3-year note sale finds solid demand- Oil futures rally led by 4% gain in Brent**European post close highlights**- EDF.FR: Reports Q1 Rev €21.4B v €22.9B y/y- PMI.IT: Reports Q1 net €48.3M v €48Me, EBIT €137M v €135Me, Rev €389M v €395Me_Summary:_Buyers stepped into US equity markets in the most aggressive manner for quite some time. April JOLTS jobs data hit the highest level for the series and were up 11% y/y. US rates stayed steady, while oil prices pushed higher, both aiding stock sentiment. The buying was relatively widespread, with a handful of Dow components making fresh highs and advancers led decliners by roughly 4:1. Bank stocks outperformed the broader market, while groups tied to commodity prices fared well, too. Stocks tied to US agriculture popped after the USDA's latest crop report forecast lower US grain stockpiles for this year and next. The Treasury kicked off this week's coupon supply with a strong 3-year note auction ahead of tomorrow's 10-year sale. After the close, Disney posted misses on both its top and bottom line, despite performance improvement at ESPN due to lower programming costs and higher affiliate revenues. Fossil shares tanked after missing Street expectations and cutting full year earnings guidance, noting the unfavorable impact of expenses associated with Misfit, the wearable device maker it acquired late last year. EA beat consensus, citing strong sales of its Star Wars-themed console game. **Markets**- Dow Jones +1.3%- S&P500 +1.3%- Nasdaq +1.3% - US 2-yr: +1bps at 0.72%- 10-yr: flat at 1.76%- 30-yr: -1bps at 2.62% - Source TradeTheNews.com



I will post again if we see something, Traders we will talk soon.....William