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Trading Room: Asian Session

Hello Traders on this Friday April 15th, 2016

Good day traders as we are now in the Asia session and there is some big news as CNY has a lot of high impact data to be released. This can effect several of the currency pairs we trade like the AUDUSD, NZDUSD and the EURJPY. This could give us the catalyst for some nice trading today. I will post an update after the data is released.

OK let us take a look at what happened in the markets yesterday in the U.S. session. As you all can see in London we consolidated most of the session. The mover was mover was the AUDUSD from yesterday Asia session and CNY data, That kept this pair moving for the rest of the day.So this is what went on yesterday.

**Headlines**
- US Weekly initial jobless claims fall to lowest levels since 1973
- US CPI figures support patient Fed
- Fed's Lockhart rethinks merits of April rate hike
- Stock sentiment remains positive
- Treasury rates back up modestly ahead of another strong 30-year sale
- Delta earnings report lifts transports
- G20 Finance Minsters meet in DC for IMF meetings

**European post close highlights**
- 2NN.DE: ING said to be selling remaining stake in NN Group - press
- EO.FR: Reports Q1 Rev €4.7B v €4.7B y/y
- SAB.UK: Reportedly agreement reached with South Africa govt to approach for SAB-AB InBev merger - press

_Summary:_
The US stock market spent much of the trading session consolidating recent gains. Traders continue to eye some key technical levels residing between 2080 and 2100 in the S&P, but remain hopeful the rally can be extended. Today's bank earnings reports were not as upbeat as JPM's yesterday but did show solid loan growth, and investors continued to see value in the beaten-down sector.

Airline stocks led gains in the Transports after Delta noted advanced booking trends are looking favorable for this summer. Volumes and volatility remained at very low levels, suggesting many are skeptical of the market's recent run. Crude prices are holding in the low $40s and remain a buoy for overall market sentiment. US rates backed up for the third straight session, despite economic data and Fed-speak that only reinforced the belief they can remain patient and gradual in normalizing rates. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has inched back towards 1.80% for the first time since April 1st.

**Markets**
- Dow Jones +0.1%
- S&P500 +0.0%
- Nasdaq -0.0%

Traders I will talk with you soon......William
 
China Data Update April 15th, 2016

Hello traders the CNY data has been released and the numbers are are good. The AUSUSD has moved about 25 pips to the upside as we expected some price action from this data. There are other currency pairs that are moving from the data, Here are the numbers

09:00*(CN) CHINA MAR MONEY SUPPLY M2 Y/Y: 13.4% V 13.5%E- M1 Money Supply Y/Y: % v 18.4%e- M0 Money Supply Y/Y: % v +4.3%e (related USD/CNY PGJ FXI EUR/CNY RUB/CNY JPY/CNY AUD/CNY CNY/USD CYB)09:00*(CN) CHINA MAR AGGREGATE FINANCING (CNY): 2.34T V 1.400TE (related USD/CNY PGJ FXI EUR/CNY RUB/CNY JPY/CNY AUD/CNY CNY/USD CYB)09:00*(CN) CHINA MAR FIXED URBAN ASSETS Y/Y: 10.7% V 10.4%E- YTD property investment (CNY) T v 0.905T prior (Y/Y: % v +3.0% prior)- Mar YTD private fixed ... more... (related EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/CNY AUD/USD GLD USO EWA PGJ FXI TLT IYM IEF EEM SHY JPY/USD CNY/USD CYB IAU GDXJ)09:00*(CN) CHINA MAR INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Y/Y: 5.8% V 5.5%E; YTD: % V 5.9%E- Power generation: B, y/y: % v +0.3% prior - Crude Steel production: M; y/y: % v -5.7% prior08:59*(CN) CHINA MAR RETAIL SALES Y/Y: 10.5% V 10.4%E; YTD: % V 10.2%E (related EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/CNY AUD/USD GLD USO EWA PGJ FXI TLT IYM IEF EEM SHY JPY/USD CNY/USD CYB IAU GDXJ)08:59*(CN) CHINA Q1 GDP Q/Q: % V 1.5%E; Y/Y: 6.7% V 6.7%E- Q1 Primary Industry GDP growth %v 3.9% q/q - Source TradeTheNews.com
 
Week End Update April 16th, 2016

Hello traders I am posting some data that I feel is very important as we go into next weeks trading. I know this is long but it is worth your time to read it. Talk soon....William

Global equity markets have more or less filled the gap from the moves lower seen in the first two months of the year. Fears about Chinese growth and the US manufacturing industry may be slowly receding, while the Fed continues to push out rate hike expectations. The US economic data generally supported various Fed officials' calls that the prudent stance remains that the FOMC stay patient in normalizing rates. Earnings season began this week with a disappointing report from Alcoa, but some slightly better-than-expected bank earnings. The next several weeks will see whether the rest of corporate America can beat greatly diminished expectations for what everyone agrees was a crappy first quarter. US Treasury yields were ultimately little changed on the week. An early week back-up in rates gave way to buying, following particularly strong 10-year and 30-year reopenings on Wed and Thursday. For the week, the DJIA added %1.8, the S&P500 gained 1.6% and the Nasdaq rose 1.8%.

March US inflation data saw a continued deceleration in pricing trends, further complicating the outlook for Fed monetary policy. Core PPI fell for the 49th month in a row and slipped into negative territory on a m/m basis, while core CPI inflation cooled off a bit in March, with both the m/m and y/y rates lower than expected and lower than both January and February. Analysts blamed the weaker dollar in part for the lower inflation levels, and cited pricing softness in apparel, shelter, and health care. The reports suggest that the PCE data, the Fed's favored measure of inflation, will be barely positive for March. Atlanta Fed President Lockhart (a non-voter in this cycle) said that he had changed his mind and would not advocate for a rate hike in April, given the continued lag in inflation. Meanwhile, notorious Fed critic Jeffrey Gundlach said there were no good chances for rate hikes in June, September or December, and predicted there was at best one Fed hike this year

The raft of Chinese data for the month of March out on Friday indicated big improvements from the weakness in the first two months of the year. March industrial production, retail sales, fixed asset investment, and new yuan loans reports all beat estimates. Industrial production figures hit a nine-month high, urban real estate buying recovered, and construction spending YTD surged 19% y/y, and retail sales were up more than 10% y/y. China Q1 GDP perfectly met expectations at +6.7%, right in the middle of the party's guidance for 2016 and an exact match the IMF's own 2016 forecast for China.

Data out of Japan strongly suggested that the BoJ's negative interest rate policy is backfiring. The March lending report showed bank credit fell to 2.5 year lows, for the second straight month of lower lending activity. The yen entered the week around 107.75, its strongest level against the dollar in 21 months, but softened notably in the wake of the lending data, with USD/JPY moving back up toward 110 in the latter half of the week. The BoJ's Kuroda applauded the softer yen, welcoming the correction in the "excessive" yen gains, while Finance Minister Aso rattled his saber, warning the government would not hesitate to intervene in FX markets if conditions became disorderly.

The loonie pushed to a nine-month high against the dollar on Wednesday after the Bank of Canada held rates steady at a scheduled policy meeting. USD/CAD dropped to 1.2745 after the decision, but this marked the high water mark for CAD, capping three months of steady gains, as the pair turned around for the latter half of the week and backed out to 1.2890. BoC Governor Poloz offered cautious comments, calling recent CAD strength mostly an artifact of shifts in expectations for US monetary policy. The greenback dropped to its weakest level against the euro on Wednesday, with EUR/USD at 1.1465, although the pair consolidated below 1.1300 heading into week's end. The Bank of England decision was a real snooze, with no changes and not much movement in GBP/USD, which remains right in the middle of the range seen since mid-January, around 1.4200.

The halting recovery in crude prices continues to run into upside resistance. Saudi Arabia and Russia appeared to have reached a consensus this week that the oil production freeze will not depend on Iran's participation, removing the only barrier remaining to an OPEC/non-OPEC deal. Meanwhile, there was lots of talk that whatever sort of pact emerges from the freeze talks will hardly be very strict, taking the form of a gentleman's agreement rather than a binding deal. Separately, both Iran and Iraq posted surprisingly strong production figures for March, and in Iraq, crude output rose to a record high of 4.55M bpd in the month. WTI prices briefly traded above $42 at one-month highs and then moved lower, mirroring the price action seen in mid-March. Brent saw stronger gains, but did not manage to break $45. Both contracts were more or less flat on the week.

The IMF cut its global economic forecast for the fourth time in the last 12 months, further trimming 2016 and 2017 GDP forecasts. The IMF lowered its call for every major economy in its World Economic Outlook (WEO), except for China, which got a small bump higher. The IMF cut 2016 global growth from +3.4% to +3.2%, and cut its 2017 forecast from +3.6% to +3.5%. The IMF warned that a return of last year's financial market turmoil was still a big potential downside risk. The organization specifically called out Beijing, warning about the potential global impact of unwinding prior excesses in China's economy as it transitions to a more balanced growth path.

The FDIC and Federal Reserve called out five big banks for failing to submit effective plans for winding down operations in the event of a bankruptcy. The five "too big to fail" banks - BofA, JPMorgan, Bank of New York, State Street and Wells Fargo - did not submit acceptable living wills. The firms have until October to fix their plans, and the Fed and FDIC could start imposing strict prudential remedies if they are still found to be deficient at that time. If after two years they do not have a proper plan, the regulators could force the banks to divest certain assets and scale back the size of the institutions. Note that the FDIC rejected Goldman Sachs' plan, while the Fed alone found Morgan Stanley's plan deficient. Citigroup was the only big bank to have its plan approved by both regulators.

The March quarter earnings season began with a poor report from Alcoa. While ex-items earnings beat expectations slightly, sales were a miss. The company also added 1K to anticipated job cuts, lowered its FY16 aluminum demand growth outlook to +5% from +6%, and revised its three-year revenue targets lower. The banks reporting this week generally beat greatly diminished expectations, given that the analyst community has predicted the worst for banks in what is usually their best quarter of the year. Both Citigroup and JPMorgan beat top- and bottom-line expectations, although both profits and revenues were lower y/y at the two banks. Bank of America missed expectations, while Wells Fargo was the only big bank reporting this week to eke out revenue growth. Delta's profits soared 30% y/y while revenue was right in line. The airline spent one-third less on fuel than it did a year earlier, and indicated they were willing to cut capacity if profitability measures don't improve. On Friday, Japanese press reports indicated Apple plans to maintain its reduced production of iPhones into the April-June quarter, citing soft 6S and 6S Plus sales, which put pressure on the tech giant and its suppliers' shares into the end of the week.

Canada's Mitel Networks has reached a deal to buy fellow voice and telephony equipment manufacturer Polycom for about $1.96 billion in cash and stock. Polycom's holders will get $3.12 in cash and 1.31 Mitel shares for each of their shares. Canadian Pacific ended its $25 billion bid for its US counterpart Norfolk Southern, the latest giant merger deal to fall apart over recent weeks. CP began its pursuit of NSC last fall, under pressure from activist investor Bill Ackman's Pershing Square. This is the second failed deal attempt for CP, after its bid for CSX fell apart in 2015. Separately, there were press reports about growing opposition in Germany to Deutsche Borse's planned $20B merger with the London Stock Exchange, partly because of growing concern about the consequences for the merged entity should Britain leave the EU.

This TradeTheNews.com Email Subscription was sent to [email protected].
 
Welcome to Asia on a Monday April 18th, 2016

Hello traders here we are ready for a new trading week as I have looked at some news and charts as the last week ended on an mixed show as far as the dollar went. In Asia today we had some Kiwi data
as this is what we had..

05:44 *(NZ) NEW ZEALAND Q1 CPI Q/Q: 0.2% V 0.1%E; Y/Y: 0.4% V 0.4%E Q/Q highlights:- Petrol prices fell 7.7%, making the largest downward contribution. - Low oil prices contributed to price falls for air fares.- Housing-related prices and food prices rose.- Prices for tradable goods and services fell 0.9%, while prices for non-tradable goods and services rose 1.0%.- After seasonal adjustment, the CPI rose 0.2%.Y/Y highlights:- Rentals for housing (up 2.3%), prices for newly-built houses excluding land (up 5.0%), and local authority rates (up 6.2%) all increased. - Source TradeTheNews.com

Today looks to be a very slow day in News releases. The next medium impact event will be the RBA meeting minutes, I do not expect a big move from that we will watch the AUDUSD when it is released in this Asia session. That is all we have today so as traders we will prepare for an all technical trading day.

Thank You traders and talk soon.....William
 
Welcome to Asia April 19th, 2016

Hello traders welcome back as today lets us take a look what we have for today. I see traders reacted to the no production from the Doha meetings over the weekend. I have looked at the charts on the 30 minute time frame and we can see $ weakness and Aussie strength across the board. This Asia session we have Aussie data the Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes will be released.We have RBA Governor Stevens speaks in the U.S. session as well as medium data with housing starts. BOC GOV Poloz speaks in the U.S. session also. After looking at that we have little high impact data for today.

OK let us look at the update from yesterday markets closed 03:57 (US) Market Close Summary **Headlines**- Stocks and oil prices rise off of a lower open- Dow Jones Industrial Average tops 18K for the first time since last summer- Improving risk appetite weighs on Treasury prices - Fed's Dudley repeats call for gradual, cautious policy adjustments- Netflix and IBM both disappoint on guidance**European post close highlights**-(JP) BOJ's Kuroda: BOJ would not hesitate to take more easing measures to lift inflation toward 2% target as soon as possible, but will not provide 'helicopter money' - press interview- OR.FR: Reports Q1 Rev €6.55B v €6.49Be, total LFL sales growth +4.2% v +3.5%e_Summary:_US markets opened under modest pressure after oil producers failed to reach a deal on an output freeze yesterday. The energy complex gapped lower along with the commodity, but buyers emerged shortly after NYSE open. The XLE reversed more than 4% off of early session lows along with crude price. Bargain hunters looked for deals in the beaten-down banking names after Morgan Stanley reported mediocre results. The Dow Jones Industrial average surpassed the 18K mark for the first time since July.After the close, Netflix reported an earnings beat, but offered some weak financial and subscription guidance, and shares fell post-market. IBM announced higher than anticipated sales and earnings, but the street remained unimpressed by the company's 16th quarter in a row of y/y revenue declines and its failure to raise FY guidance despite solid Q1 results. **Markets**- Dow Jones +0.6%- S&P500 +0.7%- Nasdaq +0.4% - US 2-yr: +1bps at 0.75%- 10-yr: +2bps at 1.77%- 30-yr: +2bps at 2.59%- 2-10 spread: +1bps at 1.02% **Commodities**: - May crude oil $39.98, -0.9%- June Gold $1,234/oz, -0.0%- May Silver $16.27/oz, -0.3%- May Copper $2.165/oz, +0.6%**Notable afterhours (17:00):**HRTX: Provides update on FDA review of SUSTOL: FDA has indicated that there are no substantive deficiencies in the NDA; +17.5%IBM: Reports Q1 $2.35 v $2.07e, R$18.7B v $18.3Be; -2.3% - Source TradeTheNews.com

I am looking to trade the trend of each pair and watch your higher time frames before we enter into any trades. The data feom the Aussie I do not think will move the markets alot today.

Thank you traders and talk soon .....William
 
RBA Apr. Meeting Minutes Update. April 19th, 2016

AUDUSD drops only 15 pips with the data release as shown below.

*(AU) RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA (RBA) APR MEETING MINUTES - Low inflation can offer room to ease policy- Seen reasonable prospects to continue moderate growth Related ( AUD/USD EWA ) - Source TradeTheNews.com

Thank You traders and talk soon......William
 
Welcome To Asia Wednesday April 20th, 2016

Hello traders and welcome back to another trading day ahead. OK let us take a look at what we have in Asia today and that would be the JPY has Balance of trade data to be released. The JPY took a hit in price action as speakers keep saying there is a chance of intervention if needed. I have looked at the charts and we see dollar weakness and at the end of the trading day has made a move as now the dollar index is at 94. Oil is in the rebound as it is now above 40.00 $ per barrel. The GBP has a good amount of data in London session and there is light data in the U.S. session, as data is slow for the rest of the week. The big one will be what is the ECB going to do and the markets are expecting very little.

OK lets us take a look at what happened yesterday as the markets closed: **Headlines**- NASDAQ lags after NFLX, ILMN disappoint, EBAY downgraded- US March housing starts and building permits decline- Fonterra dairy trade price index +3.8% v +2.1% prior - (UK) BOE Gov Carney: BOE has room to cut interest rates if needed- Cabela's shares surge on report Bass Pro Shops to team with Goldman unit for takeover offer- Viacom still trying to negotiate with DISH about carriage renewal but says DISH has been unwilling to engage; current contract expires Wed. - press- Dollar Index resumes trend lower sub 94**European post close highlights**- BAVA.DK: Positive data for Ebola vaccine regimen published in JAMA- AC.FR: Reports Q1 Rev €1.16B v €1.23B y/y_Summary:_US stock markets continued to trade at or near new highs of the year. Positive reaction to J&J, United Health, and Goldman Sachs earnings reports helped push the S&P cash market back above 2100. Netflix shares weighed on the NASDAQ after a disappointing outlook sent shares down double digits. The Russel 2000 consolidated after closing above its 200-day moving average for the first time since July yesterday. Treasury yields continue to inch up holding at the tops of recent ranges while the Greenback remains soft. The US Dollar did manage modest gains against the Yen after more verbal intervention from Japanese officials. Crude futures tracked higher by roughly 3%, recouping all the Doha disappointment declines from yesterday. Commodity prices in general remain firm, buoyed by improving sentiment globally. Silver futures prices have reached the highest levels in nearly a year, touching $17.00.After the close, Intel's results came in with a beat on earnings, but the chipmaker guided weaker-than-expected Q2 revenues and announced a 12% workforce reduction as it plans to shift toward new technologies. Yahoo struggled to just overcome already-low analyst expectations, reporting quarterly earnings and revenue down significantly y/y, and disclosed a 15% decline in search revenue. VMWare earnings came in better than expected and management announced a $1.2B share buyback program. **Markets**- Dow Jones +0.3%- S&P500 +0.3%- Nasdaq -0.4% - US 2-yr: +2bps at 0.76%- 10-yr: +1bps at 1.78%- 30-yr: +1bps at 2.60%- 2-10 spread: +1bps at 1.02% **Commodities**: - May crude oil $40.99, +3.0%- June Gold $1,252/oz, +1.4%- May Silver $16.96/oz, +4.4%- May Copper $2.227/oz, +2.8%**Notable afterhours (17:30):**VMW: Reports Q1 $0.86 v $0.84e, R$1.59B v $1.57Be; to repurchase up to $1.2B of class A common stock (6% of market cap); +8.6%DFS: Reports Q1 $1.35 v $1.30e, R$2.22B v $1.76Be; +4.1%ISRG: Reports Q1 $4.42 v $4.30e, R$595M v $586Me; +1.8%YHOO: Reports Q1 $0.08 v $0.07e, R$859M (ex TAC) v $846Me; +1.6%INTC: Reports Q1 $0.54 v $0.49e, R$13.8B v $14.0Be; Announces 12K in jobs cuts (as speculated; ~11% of workforce); announces CFO transition; -2.3% Related ( UPDTE ) - Source TradeTheNews.com

So what are we going to do for our trading today I would say be very patient in your trading have a trade plan and monitor your trades until you are break even. I am looking for the dollar to rebound and the volatility to pick up today. Traders looks to be another interesting day in trading and looking for some good trades today.

Thank You Traders And Talk Soon.......William
 
JPY Data Release Update April 20th, 2016

Hello traders just an update on the data just released Trade Balance from JPY.

I would say slightly lower than expected and there was no reaction from the markets as there is about four numbers that come out with this. OK let us take a look at the numbers:

06:50 *(JP) JAPAN MAR TOTAL MERCHANDISE TRADE BALANCE: ¥755.0B V ¥835BE (2nd consecutive trade surplus); ADJUSTED TRADE BALANCE: ¥276.5B V ¥450BE - Exports y/y: -6.8% v -7.0%e (6th straight decline)- Imports y/y: -14.9% v -16.6%e (15th straight decline)- Prior revised lower to ¥242.2B from ¥242.8B- Prior Adjusted revised lower to ¥150.4B from ¥166.1BComponents:- Exports to Asia y/y: -9.7% v -6.1% prior (7th consecutive decline) - Source TradeTheNews.com

The key here traders is the % of the numbers really all within expectations that I feel is why we had no movement on the charts.

Thank you traders talk soon.....William
 
Wecome to Asia April 21st, 2016

Hello traders good to be with you as we look at what we can expect for today. There is a good amount of data to be released with no data in Asia today. I feel the main focus point will the EUR interest rate decision followed by the press conference. OK let us see what happened yesterday in the markets this is update after the close:

04:02 (US) Market Close Summary **Headlines**- Oil prices reverse to reach 200-day moving average following weekly DOE inventory figures- Existing homes sales are mixed- US indices continue melt up; SPU's test 2100- Investors cheer Intel's perceived pivot away from PC business; Coca-Cola fizzles post results - VOW3.DE: Reportedly agrees with US govt on plan for $5K compensation per affected customer in emissions scandal agreement - German press- US Treasury yields back up to highest levels of the month- CRB index reaches highs of the year; grains break out - Source TradeTheNews.com


Well as you can see traders not a lot of data. Again we have a good amount of data releases today so please be alert to your economic calendar today.

Thank you traders and we will talk soon.....William
 
Welcome to Asia My Friends on A Friday April 22nd, 2016

Hello traders here we are at the end of our trading week and a complete day of trading ahead. Today we do not have any data to be released in the Asia session with minimal data the rest of the trading day. This looks to be a technical trading day as we expected last Monday. Next week we have the FOMC and that will effect the weeks trading.

OK let us take a look at the close of the markets:

04:43 (US) Market Close Summary **Headlines**- Rates continue to back up globally - April Philly Fed Business data deteriorates- Weekly jobless claims remain at 35+ year lows- ECB leaves rates unchanged; Draghi repeats prior stance, not looking at 'helicopter money'- Sarepta loses 44% on poor FDA staff notes- Investor pore over an influx of corporate earnings reports- Viacom reaches carriage deal with Dish- Blackstone said to be in early stage talks to acquire Concordia Healthcare**European post close highlights**- RNO.FR: Reports Q1 Rev €10.5B v €10.2Be- KER.FR: Reports Q1 Rev €2.72B v €2.78Be- UG.FR: Regulators raided Peugeot offices today as part of ongoing emissions probe - press_Summary:_US stock markets opened near the flat line as investors scoured a plethora of earnings reports. Treasury prices on both sides of the Atlantic remained under pressure despite some softer data points. UK retail sales missed expectations, while April Philadelphia Fed figures were weak. Eventually the data appeared to weigh on stocks, and prices lost ground through and after the European close. The US Dollar firmed following the ECB press conference where Draghi broke little in the way of new ground. The Greenback had been weaker earlier in the day, but commodity prices slipped and the Dollar rebounded as equity prices declined. Utility and dividend-paying groups remained relatively weak on the back of slightly higher interest rates. Post-market, Microsoft's profits missed estimates, citing a dip in mobile and Windows revenue. Alphabet (Google) disappointed on both top and bottom line, and its CFO said to expect lumpiness in results from quarter to quarter. Starbucks reported profits in line with guidance, but the coffee chain came in below on revenue, despite continued international store growth.**Markets**- Dow Jones -0.6%- S&P500 -0.5%- Nasdaq -0.0% - US 2-yr: flat at 0.81%- 10-yr: +2bps at 1.87%- 30-yr: +3bps at 2.69%- 2-10 spread: +2bps at 1.06% **Commodities**: - May crude oil $42.63, +3.8%- June Gold $1,251/oz, -0.3%- May Silver $17.02/oz, -0.7%- May Copper $2.251/oz, +0.6%**Notable afterhours (17:00):**AMD: Reports Q1 -$0.12 v -$0.13e, R$832M v $818Me; +23.3% afterhoursSKX: Reports Q1 $0.63 v $0.53e, R$979M v $890Me; +5.5% afterhoursSLB: Reports Q1 $0.40 v $0.41e, R$6.52B v $6.79Be; -0.9% afterhoursMSFT: Reports Q3 $0.62 v $0.63e, R$22.1B (adj) v $21.6Be; -4.2% afterhoursSBUX: Reports Q2 $0.39 v $0.39e, R$4.99B v $5.02Be; -5.2% afterhoursGOOGL: Reports Q1 $7.50 (adj) v $7.90e, R$20.3B (including $3.79B of TAC) v $20.4Be; -6.0% afterhours Related ( UPDTE ) - Source TradeTheNews.com


Traders please watch your economic calendar during the day as we have moderate news releases today.

Thank you traders and we will talk soon......William
 

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