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NZD/USD: growth of quotations of commodity currencies may resume
04/02/2020
From October to December last year, the NZD / USD pair was in the upward correction period and reached an almost 8-month high near the 0.6755 mark at the end of December.
However, then NZD / USD fell sharply amid the spread of coronavirus in China threatening to slow down the global economy. The decrease in NZD / USD in January amounted to almost 4%.
Despite some easing of investors' concerns about a slowdown in the global economy and a resurgent rise in stock indices, commodity currencies, including NZD, are still under pressure.
On Tuesday, NZD / USD makes an attempt to break the lower border of the upward channel on the daily chart passing through the mark of 0.6465.
Negative dynamics still prevail, and technical indicators on the daily and weekly charts recommend short positions. In case of further decline, the targets will be the support levels of 0.6400, 0.6322 (November lows), 0.6260 (September 2015 lows and the Fibonacci level of 0%), 0.6205 (September lows).
Today, the volatility in the NZD / USD pair may again increase when data from a dairy auction organized by the New Zealand company Fonterra (a specialized trading platform GlobalDairyTrade - GDT) will be published after 15:00 (GMT). The Dairy Price Index, prepared by Global Dairy Trade, came out two weeks ago with a value of +1.7%. The increase in world prices for dairy products provides additional support to the New Zealand economy, increasing the level of foreign currency export earnings. Forecast for today: the Global Dairy Trade price index for dairy products will come out with a value of +0.9%, which is likely to also support the New Zealand dollar.
In this case, a breakdown of the local resistance level of 0.6485 will be the first signal to resume long positions in the NZD / USD pair. A breakdown of the key resistance level of 0.6540 (EMA200 on the daily chart) will again make long positions relevant with targets at the resistance levels of 0.6755 (EMA144 on the weekly chart), 0.6865 (EMA200 on the weekly chart and the Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction in the global pair decline wave with level 0.8820).
Investor concerns about coronavirus eased somewhat earlier this week, creating a favorable backdrop for renewed growth in global stock indices and commodity prices, as well as commodity currency quotes.
Support Levels: 0.6440, 0.6400, 0.6322, 0.6260, 0.6200, 0.6100
Resistance Levels: 0.6485, 0.6515, 0.6540, 0.6565, 0.6635, 0.6665, 0.6755, 0.6865
Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 0.6440. Stop-Loss 0.6490. Take-Profit 0.6400, 0.6322, 0.6260, 0.6200, 0.6100
Buy Stop 0.6490. Stop-Loss 0.6440. Take-Profit 0.6515, 0.6540, 0.6565, 0.6635, 0.6665, 0.6755, 0.6865
*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
04/02/2020
From October to December last year, the NZD / USD pair was in the upward correction period and reached an almost 8-month high near the 0.6755 mark at the end of December.
However, then NZD / USD fell sharply amid the spread of coronavirus in China threatening to slow down the global economy. The decrease in NZD / USD in January amounted to almost 4%.
Despite some easing of investors' concerns about a slowdown in the global economy and a resurgent rise in stock indices, commodity currencies, including NZD, are still under pressure.
On Tuesday, NZD / USD makes an attempt to break the lower border of the upward channel on the daily chart passing through the mark of 0.6465.
Negative dynamics still prevail, and technical indicators on the daily and weekly charts recommend short positions. In case of further decline, the targets will be the support levels of 0.6400, 0.6322 (November lows), 0.6260 (September 2015 lows and the Fibonacci level of 0%), 0.6205 (September lows).
Today, the volatility in the NZD / USD pair may again increase when data from a dairy auction organized by the New Zealand company Fonterra (a specialized trading platform GlobalDairyTrade - GDT) will be published after 15:00 (GMT). The Dairy Price Index, prepared by Global Dairy Trade, came out two weeks ago with a value of +1.7%. The increase in world prices for dairy products provides additional support to the New Zealand economy, increasing the level of foreign currency export earnings. Forecast for today: the Global Dairy Trade price index for dairy products will come out with a value of +0.9%, which is likely to also support the New Zealand dollar.
In this case, a breakdown of the local resistance level of 0.6485 will be the first signal to resume long positions in the NZD / USD pair. A breakdown of the key resistance level of 0.6540 (EMA200 on the daily chart) will again make long positions relevant with targets at the resistance levels of 0.6755 (EMA144 on the weekly chart), 0.6865 (EMA200 on the weekly chart and the Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction in the global pair decline wave with level 0.8820).
Investor concerns about coronavirus eased somewhat earlier this week, creating a favorable backdrop for renewed growth in global stock indices and commodity prices, as well as commodity currency quotes.
Support Levels: 0.6440, 0.6400, 0.6322, 0.6260, 0.6200, 0.6100
Resistance Levels: 0.6485, 0.6515, 0.6540, 0.6565, 0.6635, 0.6665, 0.6755, 0.6865
Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 0.6440. Stop-Loss 0.6490. Take-Profit 0.6400, 0.6322, 0.6260, 0.6200, 0.6100
Buy Stop 0.6490. Stop-Loss 0.6440. Take-Profit 0.6515, 0.6540, 0.6565, 0.6635, 0.6665, 0.6755, 0.6865
*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com