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AUD/USD: the pair remains under pressure

22/01/2020


Last year, the RBA cut interest rates three times amid a trade conflict between the US and China and weak growth in the Australian economy. In December, the RBA left the key interest rate unchanged, at a record low of 0.75%. Now, labor market conditions, household consumption growth rates, and company investment are key to the February meeting of the RBA, after the US and China entered into a “first phase” trade agreement last week.

RBA managing director Philip Lowe in November admitted the possibility of further stimulating the Australian economy after the rate drops below 0.25%. In the Australian economy, consumer demand is now declining and in recession. Personal consumption accounts for almost 60% of GDP, so the RBA always focuses on spending in stores. Without rapid growth in personal consumption, employment in the labor market will slow down, and the investment market will cool.

On Wednesday, Westpac reported a decline in consumer confidence in the country. The consumer confidence index fell in January by -1.8% (against the forecast of -0.8% and after falling by -1.9% in December).

The Australian dollar continued to decline after the publication of this index at the beginning of today's trading day. A day earlier, the Australian dollar was pressured by information about the outbreak of coronavirus in China.

The Australian economy is expected to create +15,000 new jobs in December, while unemployment remains at 5.2%. Data from the Australian labor market will be released Thursday at 00:30 (GMT). Weak GDP growth, low personal consumption and weak retail sales reinforce expectations of further interest rate cuts at a meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia on February 4, which will put downward pressure on AUD.



On Wednesday, AUD / USD is trading below the key resistance level of 0.6910 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart) and below the important resistance level of 0.6881 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour and 4-hour charts, ЕМА144 on the daily chart).

A breakdown of the local support level of 0.6828 (today's and monthly lows) will confirm a downward trend and a return to the global downtrend, in which AUD / USD has been since August 2011.

A signal for the development of an alternative scenario could be a breakdown of the local resistance level of 0.6850. However, the possible growth of AUD / USD is likely to be limited by the resistance level of 0.6910 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart).

Support Levels: 0.6828, 0.6802, 0.6745, 0.6700, 0.6670, 0.6600, 0.6300

Resistance Levels: 0.6850, 0.6881, 0.6910, 0.6938



Trading Scenarios


Sell Stop 0.6825. Stop-Loss 0.6860. Take-Profit 0.6802, 0.6745, 0.6700, 0.6670, 0.6600, 0.6300

Buy Stop 0.6860. Stop-Loss 0.6825. Take-Profit 0.6881, 0.6910





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EUR/USD: on the eve of the ECB meeting

17/01/2020


Since the opening of today's trading day, the EUR / USD pair has been trading in a narrow range on the eve of the publication of the ECB's decision on rates.

At the beginning of today's European session, the EUR / USD pair is trading near 1.1090, below strong short-term resistance levels of 1.1108 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), 1.1115 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart).

Below the key resistance level of 1.1150 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), the long-term negative dynamics of EUR / USD remains, which speaks in favor of short positions.

At the same time, the ECB leadership today may announce an increase in inflation expectations and reiterate that it is "closely monitoring the potential side effects" of negative interest rates on the economy.

The ECB's decision on rates will be published at 12:45 (GMT), and the press conference will begin today at 13:30 (GMT). A sharp increase in volatility is likely to occur during this period of time, especially if unexpected statements regarding the monetary policy of the bank are followed by ECB management. Negative interest rates are likely to continue for some time to come, but the ECB may revise them at some point.

Any statements by the ECB management that may indicate the possibility of moving away from the bank’s extra-soft monetary policy towards tightening it will be regarded by market participants as a signal to resume purchases of the euro, which will also cause the EUR / USD pair to grow.

In this case, after the breakdown of the resistance level, 1.1150 EUR / USD will go towards the resistance levels 1.1205, 1.1285 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the upward correction to the fall of the pair from 1.3870 in May 2014 to 1.0480 reached in March 2015). A signal for the implementation of this scenario will be a growth into the zone above the resistance level of 1.1115.

The breakdown of the local support level of 1.1064 may provoke a deeper decline in EUR / USD.

Support Levels: 1.1064, 1.0995, 1.0940, 1.0900

Resistance Levels: 1.1108, 1.1115, 1.1150, 1.1205, 1.1240, 1.1285



Trading Recommendations


Sell Stop 1.1060. Stop-Loss 1.1115. Take-Profit 1.1000, 1.0940, 1.0900

Buy Stop 1.1115. Stop-Loss 1.1060. Take-Profit 1.1150, 1.1200, 1.1240, 1.1285





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NZD/USD: commodity demand falls

24/01/2020


The New Zealand dollar received support today at the beginning of the Asian trading session after the publication of consumer inflation data. The consumer price index (CPI) in the country in the 4th quarter increased by +1.9% (after rising by +1.5% in the 3rd quarter, with the forecast of +1.8%). The NZD / USD rose in the first half of today's trading day, reaching an intraday high near 0.6628.

Meanwhile, commodity prices continue to decline amid the spread of the deadly virus in China.

While the NZD / USD is trading above the key support level of 0.6545 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), its long-term dynamics remains.

A signal for resuming sales will be a breakdown of the support level of 0.6613 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart, EMA50 on the 4-hour chart) with the target at the support level of 0.6598 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart and the bottom line of the ascending channel on the daily chart).

The breakdown of the support level of 0.6428 (EMA144 on the daily chart) and a further decline will indicate the resumption of the global downtrend NZD / USD and the relevance of short positions with long-term goals at support levels 0.6260, 0.6200, 0.6100.

On the other hand, a breakdown of local resistance levels of 0.6635, 0.6665 could trigger an alternative growth scenario in the upward channel on the daily chart with targets at resistance levels of 0.6770 (EMA144 on the weekly chart), 0.6865 (EMA200 on the weekly chart and the Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction in the global wave of the pair decline from the level of 0.8820).

Meanwhile, more active growth of the New Zealand dollar at the moment should not be expected, according to economists. Investors are gearing up for a slowdown in China, the largest consumer of commodities. Rising concerns about declining commodity demand will put pressure on commodity currencies, including the New Zealand dollar.

Support Levels: 0.6613, 0.6698, 0.6575, 0.6545, 0.6528, 0.6500, 0.6485, 0.6440, 0.6400, 0.6322, 0.6260, 0.6200, 0.6100

Resistance Levels: 0.6635, 0.6665, 0.6770, 0.6865



Trading Scenarios


Sell Stop 0.6590. Stop-Loss 0.6640. Take-Profit 0.6575, 0.6545, 0.6528, 0.6500, 0.6485, 0.6440, 0.6400, 0.6322, 0.6260, 0.6200

Buy Stop 0.6640. Stop-Loss 0.6590. Take-Profit 0.6665, 0.6770, 0.6865





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EUR/USD: Current Dynamics

27/01/2020


The number of infected people with coronavirus in China has already exceeded 2,700, and the number of deaths has reached 80. The situation threatens to get out of control, and traders began to take into account the inevitable slowdown in China's GDP growth, which causes a decrease in world stock indexes.

Amid concerns about the spread of coronavirus and rising fears of a slowdown in the global economy, demand for safe haven assets (such as gold, yen) and the dollar are growing again.

At the same time, the euro resumed falling against the dollar at the beginning of today's European session after the publication of disappointing macro data (at 09:00 GMT). According to the IFO, the business climate worsened in Germany in January. The current situation assessment indicator published by the CESifo research group came out with a value of 99.1, which is worse than the forecast of 99.4. The IFO Economic Expectations Index, which serves as an indicator of current conditions and expectations in the German business sector, came out with a value of 92.9, which is worse than the forecast of 95.0 and the previous value of 93.9. The slowdown in Germany's economic growth and the deterioration of sentiment in the country's business circles is a bearish factor for EUR.



EUR / USD continues to trade in the zone below the key resistance level of 1.1150 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart).

To resume growth, the price needs to break through the nearest resistance levels of 1.1064, 1.1082 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), 1.1105 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart).

However, the growth of EUR / USD is likely to be limited by the resistance level of 1.1150.

In an alternative scenario, and after the breakdown of the resistance level, 1.1150 EUR / USD will go towards the resistance levels 1.1205, 1.1285 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the upward correction to the fall of the pair from 1.3870 in May 2014 to 1.0480 reached in March 2015).

A breakdown of the local support level of 1.1015 (today's low) may trigger a deeper decline in EUR / USD. Below the key resistance level of 1.1150, the long-term negative dynamics of EUR / USD remains, and a decline to the zone below the support level of 1.1000 speaks in favor of short positions.

Support Levels: 1.1025, 1.0995, 1.0940, 1.0900

Resistance Levels: 1.1064, 1.1082, 1.1105, 1.1115, 1.1150, 1.1205, 1.1240, 1.1285



Trading Recommendations


Sell Stop 1.1010. Stop-Loss 1.1040. Take-Profit 1.0995, 1.0940, 1.0900

Buy Stop 1.1040. Stop-Loss 1.1010. Take-Profit 1.1064, 1.1082, 1.1105, 1.1115, 1.1150, 1.1205, 1.1240, 1.1285





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AUD/USD: commodity currencies are under pressure

28/01/2020


Earlier this week, the AUD / USD broke through the lower border of the upward channel on the daily chart and continues to decline, trading at the beginning of today's European session near the level of 0.6745.

The reluctance of investors to take risks due to the spreading coronavirus in China puts pressure on commodity prices, one of the largest consumers of which is China.

According to Chinese authorities, on Monday the number of people infected with coronavirus exceeded 4,500, and the number of deaths reached 106. Investors take into account slowdown in China's GDP growth due to an outbreak of coronavirus. As a commodity currency, the Australian dollar is also declining, losing about 4% since the start of the month against the US dollar.

In case of further decrease in AUD / USD, the targets will be the support levels of 0.6670 (2019 lows), 0.6600. The distant target is located at support levels of 0.6260, 0.6000 (lows of 2008 - 2009).

On Wednesday (00:30 GMT) inflation data for Australia for the 4th quarter will be published. Most likely, the data will confirm that core inflation remains below the target level (it is expected that growth in consumer inflation in the 4th quarter was +0.6% and +1.7% in annual terms). If the data turn out to be even weaker than the forecast, then the pressure on the RBA to further soften its policy at the February 4 meeting will intensify. The RBA is also expected to lower forecasts for GDP growth in the 4th quarter of 2019 and in the 1st quarter of 2020, which will also put pressure on the AUD.

At the same time, the USD is strengthening, including due to the spread of the coronavirus and the fall of world stock indices.

A breakdown of the local support level of 0.6740 (today's and monthly lows) will confirm a downward trend and a return to the global downtrend, in which AUD / USD has been since August 2011.

In the current situation, only short positions should be considered. You can return to AUD / USD purchases after the pair returns to the ascending channel on the daily chart, the lower border of which passes through the mark of 0.6820.

Support Levels: 0.6828, 0.6802, 0.6745, 0.6700, 0.6670, 0.6600, 0.6300

Resistance Levels: 0.6850, 0.6881, 0.6910, 0.6938



Trading Recommendations


Sell Stop 0.6825. Stop-Loss 0.6860. Take-Profit 0.6802, 0.6745, 0.6700, 0.6670, 0.6600, 0.6300

Buy Stop 0.6860. Stop-Loss 0.6825. Take-Profit 0.6881, 0.6910





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AUD/USD: commodity currencies are under pressure

28/01/2020


Earlier this week, the AUD / USD broke through the lower border of the upward channel on the daily chart and continues to decline, trading at the beginning of today's European session near the level of 0.6745.

The reluctance of investors to take risks due to the spreading coronavirus in China puts pressure on commodity prices, one of the largest consumers of which is China.

According to Chinese authorities, on Monday the number of people infected with coronavirus exceeded 4,500, and the number of deaths reached 106. Investors take into account slowdown in China's GDP growth due to an outbreak of coronavirus. As a commodity currency, the Australian dollar is also declining, losing about 4% since the start of the month against the US dollar.

In case of further decrease in AUD / USD, the targets will be the support levels of 0.6670 (2019 lows), 0.6600. The distant target is located at support levels of 0.6260, 0.6000 (lows of 2008 - 2009).

On Wednesday (00:30 GMT) inflation data for Australia for the 4th quarter will be published. Most likely, the data will confirm that core inflation remains below the target level (it is expected that growth in consumer inflation in the 4th quarter was +0.6% and +1.7% in annual terms). If the data turn out to be even weaker than the forecast, then the pressure on the RBA to further soften its policy at the February 4 meeting will intensify. The RBA is also expected to lower forecasts for GDP growth in the 4th quarter of 2019 and in the 1st quarter of 2020, which will also put pressure on the AUD.

At the same time, the USD is strengthening, including due to the spread of the coronavirus and the fall of world stock indices.

A breakdown of the local support level of 0.6740 (today's and monthly lows) will confirm a downward trend and a return to the global downtrend, in which AUD / USD has been since August 2011.

In the current situation, only short positions should be considered. You can return to AUD / USD purchases after the pair returns to the ascending channel on the daily chart, the lower border of which passes through the mark of 0.6820.

Support Levels: 0.6828, 0.6802, 0.6745, 0.6700, 0.6670, 0.6600, 0.6300

Resistance Levels: 0.6850, 0.6881, 0.6910, 0.6938



Trading Recommendations


Sell Stop 0.6825. Stop-Loss 0.6860. Take-Profit 0.6802, 0.6745, 0.6700, 0.6670, 0.6600, 0.6300

Buy Stop 0.6860. Stop-Loss 0.6825. Take-Profit 0.6881, 0.6910





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GBP/USD: on the eve of the meeting of the Bank of England

29/01/2020


On the eve of the Bank of England meeting on Thursday, the pound remains positive, and the GBP / USD pair is trading in the upward channel on the daily chart, above the key support level of 1.2835 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart).

The Bank of England will publish the decision on the rate on Thursday at 12:00 (GMT). It is widely expected that the Bank of England will maintain its current monetary policy unchanged. Also, many economists believe that the Bank of England in 2020 will also not change its policy amid a recovery in the UK economy.

Many economists predict an acceleration of UK GDP growth from 1.0% in 2020 to 1.8% in 2021 due to planned fiscal stimulus measures and the expected growth in investment, which will be possible if a trade deal is concluded with the European Union before the end of this year.

On Thursday, it is also worth paying attention to the speech of the head of the Bank of England Mark Carney, which will begin at 12:30 (GMT). If he nevertheless favors a softer monetary policy, then the pound could drop sharply.

In any case, the volatility in the pound quotes during this period of time can increase sharply.

Below resistance levels 1.3120 (ЕМА144 on the weekly chart), 1.3050, short positions are preferred.

The breakdown of support levels 1.2995 (the bottom line of the ascending channel on the daily chart), 1.2955 (January lows) will trigger a further decline in GBP / USD to the key support level of 1.2835.

In case of breakdown of the resistance level 1.3050 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), the pair will continue to grow towards the resistance levels 1.3210 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the reduce GBP / USD pair in the wave that began in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200), 1.3340 (EMA200 on the weekly chart).

On Wednesday, investors will be waiting for the publication of the Fed decision on the rate at 19:00 (GMT). The rate is likely to remain at the level of 1.75%, which is not to cause a strong reaction from the dollar.

Support Levels: 1.2995, 1.2955, 1.2910, 1.2835

Resistance Levels: 1.3050, 1.3120, 1.3210, 1.3340, 1.3510, 1.3960, 1.4350, 1.4580, 1.5080, 1.5190



Trading Scenarios


Sell Stop 1.2985. Stop-Loss 1.3060. Take-Profit 1.2955, 1.2910, 1.2800

Buy Stop 1.3060. Stop-Loss 1.2985. Take-Profit 1.3100, 1.3120, 1.3210, 1.3340, 1.3510





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Brent: price drop is likely to continue

30/01/2020

Current Dynamics


After the price of Brent crude oil soared earlier this month as a result of a sharp increase in tension in the Middle East and reached $71.95 a barrel, a sharp drop in oil prices began later. The driver of the "price hike south" was the spread of coronavirus in China, threatening to go into a pandemic.

The number of cases in China exceeded 6,000, and more than 130 died.

At the beginning of today's European session, Brent crude is trading at $58.60 per barrel. Information from the US Department of Energy put additional pressure on oil quotes. According to the Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy, Wednesday, crude oil inventories grew by 3.548 million barrels last week (forecast implied an increase of 482,000 barrels).

A decline in demand from China and an increase in US oil reserves will put pressure on US oil producers.

The price of Brent crude oil broke through the key support level of 63.90 (EMA200 on the daily chart and the Fibonacci level 38.2% of the downward correction in the wave of price growth from the level near the level of 27.10 to the highs of October 2018 near the level of 86.60 dollars per barrel) and continued to decline.

A breakdown of the support level of 58.50 and a decrease into the area below the support level of 56.90 (Fibonacci level of 50%) will mean a break in the bull trend and the resumption of the global downtrend. In case of further decline, the immediate goal will be the support level of 50.00 (Fibonacci level of 50%).

There is no convincing evidence that the dynamics of oil prices will change significantly in the near future. A further drop in commodity prices, including oil, is likely.

Only a return to the zone above the resistance level of 63.90 will again make long positions relevant.

Support Levels: 58.50, 56.90, 55.00

Resistance Levels: 60.40, 61.70, 63.00, 63.90, 66.00, 67.50, 69.70, 71.95, 72.60



Trading Recommendations


Sell by market. Stop-Loss 59.50. Take-Profit 56.90, 55.00

Buy Stop 60.50. Stop-Loss 58.20. Take-Profit 61.70, 63.00, 63.90, 66.00, 67.50, 69.70, 71.95, 72.60





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XAU/USD: Coronavirus pushes gold quotes up

31/01/2020


The "first phase" trade agreement between the United States and China, signed two weeks ago, eased tensions in trade relations between the two countries and gave a new positive impetus to stock indices. However, other factors may adversely affect economic growth in 2020.

A new negative factor of a global scale again threatens the global economy. This time, investor caution is fueled by fears about the spread of coronavirus in China. Representatives of the World Health Organization (WHO) have already expressed significant concern about the possibility of the spread of the virus outside of China.

In this situation, the demand for protective assets, including gold, is growing. A strong positive momentum remains, pushing gold quotes up. In case of breakdown of the nearest resistance level at 1585.00 (April 2013 highs and Fibonacci level 61.8% of the correction to the wave of decline from September 2011 and the mark of 1920.00), the XAU / USD pair will go towards the upper border of the upward channel on the weekly chart, passing near the mark of 1620.00.

In an alternative scenario and in case of breakdown of the short-term support level of 1569.00 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), XAU / USD will resume the decline with targets at the support levels of 1484.00 (Fibonacci level of 50%), 1456.00 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart). A further decline in XAU / USD is unlikely, and, in the current situation, long positions are preferred.

Support Levels: 1569.00, 1555.00, 1542.00, 1520.00, 1510.00, 1484.00, 1456.00, 1450.00

Resistance Levels: 1585.00, 1600.00, 1620.00



Trading recommendations


Sell Stop 1568.00. Stop-Loss 1586.00. Take-Profit 1555.00, 1542.00, 1520.00, 1510.00, 1484.00, 1456.00, 1450.00

Buy Stop 1586.00. Stop-Loss 1568.00. Take-Profit 1600.00, 1620.00





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AUD/USD: on the eve of the RBA meeting

03/02/2020


The threat of coronavirus spreading outside of China, threatening to grow into an epidemic, brought down global stock indices last week. The World Health Organization last Thursday declared an outbreak of coronavirus infection an emergency of international importance. The number of confirmed coronavirus infected in China over the weekend has grown to nearly 15,000, the number of victims is already 305.

Given the size of China's GDP, as well as the possible consequences for other countries, the outbreak of the virus seems to be a significant enough reason for concern about the growth prospects of the world economy for the next few months.

On Tuesday, the RB of Australia makes a decision on the interest rate (the decision on the rate will be published at 03:30 GMT). Probably, the RBA will not yet change its current monetary policy, keeping the rate at a record level of 0.75%. However, this decision will not provide tangible support to the Australian dollar. The risks to Australian economy and the implications for Australian commodity and tourism demand are likely to continue to put pressure on weak growth prospects.

Thus, the Australian dollar and the pair AUD / USD are likely to remain under pressure with a tendency to further weaken and reduce, which will speak in favor of their sales.

At the beginning of today's European session, AUD / USD is trading near the 0.6690 mark, 10 points above the intraday low of 0.6680. In case of breakdown of the support levels of 0.6680 and 0.6670 (2019 lows and the Fibonacci level of 0%) and the resumption of decline, the goals will be the support levels of 0.6600, 0.6500. The distant target is located at support levels of 0.6260, 0.6000 (lows of 2008 - 2009).

The negative dynamics of AUD / USD prevails, making short positions on the pair more preferable.

Support Levels: 0.6680, 0.6670, 0.6600, 0.6300

Resistance Levels: 0.6755, 0.6763, 0.6802, 0.6820, 0.6837, 0.6869, 0.6900, 0.6935



Trading Recommendations


Sell Stop 0.6675. Stop-Loss 0.6730. Take-Profit 0.6600, 0.6300, 0.6260

Buy Stop 0.6730. Stop-Loss 0.6675. Take-Profit 0.6755, 0.6763, 0.6802, 0.6820, 0.6837, 0.6869, 0.6900





*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
 
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