Rosentray's Daily Commentary

[rosentray]

Gold is trading at a 2.5 month high in today's session amid uncertain times in the US economy. More specific, the Trump wave seems to be wearing off and now markets would need something fresh to stir the environment and create volatility.

The precious metal reached a high of $1,224 and is now trading at $1,217. If the trend keeps on going we might see Gold above immediate resistance at $1,230 to a probable bull target at $1,300. All eyes are now on the US economy and the latest NFPs and Jobs report scheduled for tomorrow 8:30EST.

Should we get bad news, Gold is destined to shine again. High volatility can be expected tomorrow in the Gold and currency market as this would be the first major report under Trump's administration.

 

[rosentray]

EUR/USD is trading relatively unchanged in today's session after a good few days of gains that caused the pair to go above 1.08. The pair is now 1.0807 and is expected to consolidate ahead of tomorrow's reports on NFPs and Jobs data.

 

[rosentray]

EUR/USD is trading in consolidation around 1.0750 as market participants await the latest NFP and Jobs report. The move may create high volatility and unexpected price changes so if you have decided to trade the news have tight stops and small positions.

 

[rosentray]

Gold is trading relatively unchanged since yesterday's levels around $1,215. Price is now $1,212 as Gold bugs expect the news later today hoping that it will give them a clearer perspective on the short-term.

 

[rosentray]

The US dollar appears to be gaining strength. EUR/USD is now 1.0732, down from above 1.08. First support level is at 1.0710.

 

[rosentray]

AUD/USD has been going steadily to the upside in the past few weeks. The pair hit bottom on Jan 2 at 0.7163 and since then it's been rallying to current market price of 0.7663. AUD/USD is now trading slightly below the top which happened just a few points shy of 0.77 at 0.7695.

Main trend on the medium-term remains bullish while on the short-term we can expect the consolidation to continue. The pair will most likely trade sideways until one of the two sides gets a boost from financials and fundamentals.

Major resistance rests at 0.7750, while major support is seen way down to the starting point. Considering Trump's new policies, the pair might get into serious turbulence until the market digests Trump's approach to the economy.

 

[rosentray]

EUR/USD closed the European session in the red today after it went below support on the short-term. The pair dipped under 1.07, which was seen as immediate short-term support and is now still trading below that line.

If the pair continues in that direction, we might expect first support zone at 1.0619, second is seen at 1.0450 and major support is the lowest at 1.0338.

On the other hand, if bulls take the advantage of the dip, they can boost the price up to the latest high at 1.0825 thus forming a potential double top. If that does not hold, 1.09 is seen as major short-term target.

Whichever comes first will most likely be impacted by either Trump's success or Trump's failure to implement his new policies.

 

[rosentray]

USD/JPY is trading in consolidation in today's session due to lack of impactful news that can give a direction to the pair. The latest developments in the pair show signs of weakness in the US dollar. The Trump rally came to an end just a bit over one month since it started on Nov 9 when Trump was elected President.

The pair made a staggering rally from 101.20 to 118.63 and it has been depreciating since then. Now the USD/JPY is trading at 112.03 and it appears that the trend will continue moving South unless we can hop on strong fundamentals.

The financial situation currently benefits the Yen as Trump makes a move to support a weak dollar. Even the Japanese former currency czar Eisuke Sakakibara said the dollar could fall below 100 yen by year end, but went on to say that Tokyo should not do any yen-selling as this might turn out to be counterproductive.

 

[rosentray]

EUR/USD is trading to the downside in today's session due to increased uncertainty in Europe related to the elections in France. Price is now 1.0649 and first support is seen at 1.0617.

 

[rosentray]

A record intraday high for the Dow, today we are expecting another strong day. Europe is relatively flat in today's session. China, Japan and India as well are in the red this morning.