Rosentray's Daily Commentary

[rosentray]

GBP/CAD is trading to the downside in today's session after an impressive rally made in the second half of January. The pair reached a high of 1.6624 a few days ago when it started declining as the trend exhausted. Since then, the pair has not been able to continue moving North and bears reached a low of 1.6405.

Currently, price is not too far away from the lowest low indicating that it may try to reach it as a support zone and first bear target. Should this happen, GBP/CAD might test the next support level at 1.6310.

On the other hand, PM Theresa May is about to hold talks with Pres Trump on agreements on mutual trade. The talks may have positive impact on the Sterling which would drive GBP/CAD up to a possible first target at 1.6680.

 

[rosentray]

EUR/USD is trading to the downside today after it reached resistance at 1.0780-1.08. The pair is now 1.0690 and bears might try to bring it down below 1.06 on Trump's policy implementations.

 

[rosentray]

USD/JPY is in an uptrend that started in the beginning of the week and has been going on since then. The pair registered a low of 112.56 and is now trading at 115.22 with a high of 115.30. US dollar bulls are faced with the first challenge to overcome the resistance at 115.65. If that level is broken then we might see the pair try to conquer 117 and even further.

On the other hand, market participants might sell the pair at current market price thus giving enough advantage to bears to reach their short-term target at 112.50 and form a triple bottom.

Some important news that may create volatility in the pair are the USD Gross Domestic Product and the USD Durable Goods Orders.

 

[rosentray]

EUR/USD dipped below 1.07 yesterday and is now trading at 1.0696. The pair is on its move down and if we get positive US data later today we will see this move continue.

 

[rosentray]

The Swiss Franc is once again more expensive than the US dollar. The long-term trend shows that the tendency for the last seven years has been predominantly in favor of the Swiss Franc. The pair had had a few parity break outs, however, but the US dollar has been incapable of moving much above the parity level.

The latest political decision of Donald Trump to ban all refugees for 120 days caused protests all over the States thus creating uncertainty in mistrust in Trump as their leader. If this spreads further, it might affect the currency and equity markets in a negative way and jeopardize the optimistic outlook market participants have for the US.

In light of this, the US dollar is now facing a double edged sword as the current economic and political events might very well define the future developments of the dollar against all its counterparts.

The Swiss Franc is the most appreciated currency against the dollar so far throughout the year as it registered a triple top at 1.0300. Current market price 0.9987.

 

[rosentray]

EUR/USD is trading slightly higher in today's early European hours. The pair is now 1.0698, up from a low of 1.0654. Market sentiment for the short-term remains bullish, long-term outlook is bearish.

 

[rosentray]

Silver is trading higher in today's session after a minor loss posted yesterday. The precious metal has been on a winning streak since the end of December and is currently facing resistance in the face of 17.30. Main trend on the short-term remains bullish and if we get passed that 17.30 level we might see a continuation of the upward move with a renewed momentum.

If, however, bears succeed in bringing the price down at current levels, market participants might witness another move down to a probable first target of 16.23 and major bear target of 15.60.

Bulls will need a strong buy signal to get passed, while bears will only need lack of any signal to buy. The long-term trend looks optimistic so it's more likely that we could see a move to the upside to a major target at 17.60.

 

[rosentray]

EUR/USD is higher today after a bearish market reaction to the US dollar based on fundamentals. The pair is now 1.0759 with first resistance at 1.0775.

 

[rosentray]

USD/JPY has been trading with high volatility for the past few weeks. The pair made a low yesterday of 112.08 on a weaker US dollar and is now back at 113.47. Lately, it has been difficult to predict what the currency pair is going to do as we saw a lot of uncertainty in markets thus causing the pair to roam volatile.

Now it looks like the US dollar is gaining strength again so we might expect the move to continue higher. If this is the case, bulls might try to reach first target level at 113.93 and major short-term target at 115.13.

On the other hand, negative US dollar news will impact the pair in favor of the Japanese Yen and this will make way for first bear target at 112.20 and major short-term target at 111.12.

 

[rosentray]

EUR/USD is trading relatively unchanged from yesterday's levels around 1.08. The pair might consolidate for the next few hours in expectation of the next market news that can hint a direction.