Rosentray's Daily Commentary

[rosentray]

EUR/USD is up on release of FOMC minutes. The pair went to a high of 1.0562 on increased risk of higher pricing and uncertainty for higher inflation. Dollar is weaker as markets are unsure what the impact of current policy is going to be.

 

[rosentray]

Gold is up with $13 overnight as dollar is trading weaker. US dollar is selling off over the last couple of days which caused the yellow metal to rally from $1,150 to a high of $1,177. Overall the long term outlook is very optimistic for the dollar with rising rates in 2017, Trump's strong administration and this would cause headwinds for the greenback and weak environment for Gold and metals overall.

That being said, the current depreciation of the dollar can be seen as a correction which helped Gold bugs to jump on in the trade to a 4 week high. EUR/USD is now at 1.0557, USD/JPY is at 116.18 and USD/CHF is gravitating towards 1.0167.

The correction is due to the release of the latest FOMC Minutes which sounded hawkish with increased risk on higher pricing and that drove market participants away from the dollar. But on Friday we get to know the latest NFP's and jobless claims and that would definitely leave an impact on market conditions.

 

[rosentray]

EUR/USD is trading relatively unchanged today as traders are waiting on the latest NFP and jobs report later today. The pair is now 1.0603. High volatility is expected in less than 3 hours.

 

[rosentray]

Gold continues its climb towards the psychological $1,200 level as price has peaked over 4 week high at $1,184. The precious metal is now $1,178 as Gold bugs are ready to face the US data later today.

 

[rosentray]

Silver has made considerable progress over the last few days going from a low of 15.61 to a high of 16.71. The asset, however, remains in bearish teritorry as Silver bulls must go through the resistance level at 16.70 or bears will take over again and push prices further down.

Silver reached a 2016 high in the beginning of July when price skyrocketed to 21.11 and then gradually started to wear off as the dollar gained strength. Expectations are for the US dollar to pick up the momentum and continue to appreciate.

Some experts even say that the move in the US dollar has not even started yet and that they expect a huge move to the upside around the time of inauguration of Donald Trump in less than two weeks.

If that is the case, then Silver along with Gold are poised to go lower. On the other hand, it takes just a spark to make precious metals go off to new highs.

 

[rosentray]

EUR/USD traders remains cautious in the first day of the week as price keeps trading unchanged around 1.0540. On Friday the US dollar was benefited by positive US data and that drove the price of the pair down. Now bears seem to have an edge that would give them control over the pair for the short-term.

 

[rosentray]

EUR/USD continues to trade relatively unchanged around the 1.06 level. Price is now 1.0561, slightly lower than yesterday's high indicating that US bulls are not yet ready to give up control over the pair.

 

[rosentray]

Gold registered a new high today going above $1,190 for the first time since 30 November last year. The precious metal has been gaining in price since 15 December when it reached a low of $1,123 and then started going North.

Although the asset looks clearly bullish, going long for the short-term might turn out to be a bad choice. The odds are still in favor of the US dollar as we approach the Inauguration day when Donald Trump will officially be elected as President of the United States. In light of this, markets might react excesivelly volatile without any reasoning behind it.

Best decision would be to remain cautiously optimistic and observe the turn of events with a clear head to not fall prey to the desire for quick money on news trading.

Current Gold price is trading at resistance and if bulls want to continue their rally they need to go above the psychological $1,200 in order for them to have an edge against their peers.

 

[rosentray]

EUR/USD is trading lower today going to 1.05. The pair is now trading at 1.0511 as uncertainty continues to be high due to the coming Inauguration of Donald Trump as POTUS.

 

[rosentray]

USD/JPY continues to trade sideways with price fluctuating around 116 in recent days. The pair registered a close to one year high in December reaching up to 118.66. After that high, however, bears stepped in and ended the multi-month rally that started from 98.85.

Price is now 116.09 as consolidation continues. First bull target is seen at 117.39 while first bear target is below the lowest low at 115.05.

We are only 10 days away from the Inauguration of Donald Trump and that event can cause heavy volatility in the US equity and currency market.

As to USD/JPY, traders might attempt to reach major resistance zone at 121.00. In that case, bears are expected to react and push price down.