Rosentray's Daily Commentary

[rosentray]

EUR/USD reached 1.0373 yesterday and is up sharply to a high of 1.0479. The pair is currently trading at 1.0470 as it seems that US bulls will take a break until years end. Support rests at 1.04 while resistance is seen at 1.0515.

 

[rosentray]

USD/CHF is trading lower after a few days of consolidation at its highest point above 1.0300. The pair reached a high of 1.0344 and immediately retreated to lower levels but still managed to hold above key 1.0300 level. A few days passed and price was struggling to keep the momentum.

A few times the US dollar gave in to bullish pressure going below 1.0300 but then again got back up above and has entered into consolidation that continues up to now. Main trend on the long-term remains bullish but with the decent sideways trading we might expect to reach below 1.0230.

If that happens, next bear target would be to go below 1.0100 and then parity again. On the other hand, bulls are on standby awaiting January when President-elect will be officially sworn as President of the United States. Given his powerful administration, market participants have high hopes for the future of the US equities and currency and these expectations may provide the next boost in the US dollar against its counterparts.

 

[rosentray]

EUR/USD sharply up in today's session due to a computer generated order that created a spike in the pair up to 1.0650. The pair is now 1.0560 in the last trading day of 2016.

 

[rosentray]

An algo trade caused the Euro to spike against its rivals in the early midnight European hours. The single curreny rose to 1.0652 against the dollar due to a trade that was designed to take advantage of the low liquidity in the markets at that time.

As a result, the most effect was felt in Gold as safe haven which climbed to a high of $1,163, USD/CHF went below 1.0050 and Silver went to 16.25.
This is the second time an algo trade has caught investors by surprise, the first time being the Sterling flash crash on 7 Oct when the Pound dived 6.1% against the dollar.

This time it was a bit lighter, however, traders were hurt as their stops were taken out during the unexpected move.

It is yet to be investigated what exactly is behind that trade, presumably the reason is a computer generated order causing a reverse flash crash.

 

[rosentray]

USD/CHF is showing strong bullish impulses that turned out to be very tough for the bears to beat. Last week the pair was impacted by the so called reverse flash crash in the euro. Then, the EUR/USD went to a high of 1.0650 and the USD/CHF slipped to 1.0050.

In light of this, right before the crash, the pair was trading at a double top which was a strong bearish signal indicating that a move to the downside is probable. The move came and the pair reached close to parity when out of nowhere the bulls stepped in and saved the day.

The pair has now recovered more than half of the decline from last week and is trading at 1.0220. If bulls manage to push the price above major resistance at 1.0330 we might see further appreciation of the US dollar.

We are just less than three weeks before Donald J Trump steps into office. This might result in high volatility in the markets due to the high expectations people have for Trump's presidency and administration.

 

[rosentray]

EUR/USD is trading lower today after the flash crash from last week took the pair to a high of 1.0650. Price is now 1.0481 and it appears that US dollar bulls are again ready to take control over the market.

 

[rosentray]

The US dollar is making a strong comeback in the first week of trading for 2017. The US currency is up against all competitors, most significantly against the euro, japanese yen and swiss franc.

All three pairs registered a move in favor of the US dollar in the second trading day for 2017 with slightly boring first day of trading for the year. However, today the EUR/USD went below 1.04 again, when a few days earlier it reached 1.0650. The swiss franc reached 1.0050 and is now back just a few points shy of 1.0300. And the japanese yen is yet again depreciated with price above 118 for a dollar.

All this comes as President elect Trump is about to step into office with his just formed administration full of financial and technological experts that are expected to take the US economy into the next level with more jobs created, tax cuts, spending cuts, higher rates and all that good stuff.

All this can infact be very dangerous for the US economy as this actually sets the bar really high and thus it would be very difficult to meet those expectations.

 

[rosentray]

Gold lost what was gained in the early trading hours of the session. The precious metal reached close to $1,160 and is now back below $1,150 as bears are showing their determination to keep price at lows until Trump gets elected.

 

[rosentray]

The EUR/USD is trading slightly unchanged since yesterday's levels. The pair continues to gravitate towards 1.04 level, currently 1.0403. Main trend on the long-term remains bearish. Volatility may remain low until Donald Trump officially steps into office.

 

[rosentray]

USD/CHF continues its range bound trading in the early opening hours today. The pair went close to a parity last week when the flash crash took place and then climbed up again to reach a high of 1.0335 in yesterday's session. The move is still not over as the stronger US dollar once again is flexing muscles.

Partially, the stronger dollar is the effect of Trump's tweet yesterday that US manufacturers should contain their production within the borders of the United States or face high taxes. That caused Ford to cancel a $1.6B deal to manufacture in Mexico.

This move by Donald Trump was seen as a decisive and bold presidential act that got a lot of media attention. As it seems, Trump is already taking control over the economy a couple of weeks before he is officialy sworn as the President of the United States.

With this kind of determined and goal oriented measures, the President elect has a great chance to boost the US dollar into record breaking levels.