Rosentray's Daily Commentary

[rosentray]

USD/JPY's latest and awesome rally appears to have come to a hold as price lost steam once it reached just slightly below 119.00. The pair reacted dovishly when it went as high as 118.65 and has been consolidating around that level eversince.

Main trend on the long-term remains strongly bullish, but the effect by the Trump wave seems to have worn off and now if USD bulls want to continue their marching North they would need something strong othwerise bears have the advantage caused by low liquidity and weak bull support.

Expectations are that USD/JPY will continue trading in the range between 116-something to 118 until years end as market participants are away to spend time with families taking the volatility with them.

However, we still have some important news such as Consumer Confidence and Advance Retail Sales scheduled for next week that may cause unexpected rapid moves to either side.

 

[rosentray]

EUR/USD is trading barely unchanged from yesterday's levels still gravitating towards the 1.04 level. Price is now a bit higher at 1.0445 and it seems that a correction is at hand as we approach years end. Important news are scheduled for later today that may alter current pace and direction.

 

[rosentray]

Nothing out of the ordinary in today's session as traders and investors are having a few days in a calmer market environment before Christmas. EUR/USD is now trading at 1.0459, slightly up from yesterday's levels.

 

[rosentray]

Gold is trading unchanged from yesterday's levels still gravitating towards the $1,130 level. The precious metal is still in bearish territory and consolidating ahead of Christmas and New Years' eve. Support rests at $1,120, resistance awaits at $1,140.

 

[rosentray]

EUR/USD is trading a bit higher in today's session going as high as 1.0467. The pair is seen to consolidate towards current levels as bulls might be into correction before the price heads to parity, as analysts and experts predict for early 2017.

 

[rosentray]

Gold is seen to consolidate around $1,130 with current market price of $1,132. The precious metal has had its worst six months in years with price going from a high of $1,375 to a low below $1,130 leaving all Metal Hedge Funds and Metal investors devastated. However, those same participants might use the time to buy the dip and hold for a historical rally, should we see the Trump administration not meet expectations.

 

[rosentray]

USD/JPY has been consolidating around its highest levels since Christmas. The pair registered a high of 118.70 on Dec 15 and has been trading around that level eversince. Low volatility and low liquidity were to be expected after Christmas as market participants are away and no major news are expected to stir the market.

Traders and investors are taking a few days off to be with their families all around the world as business is put on hold. At least for a while before we start anew on Jan 1. Until then, the market is expected to trade flat with a calm US dollar.

USD/JPY can be expected to trade around 117.00-118.05 until volatility is back on stage and market is ready to take it to another level. Current market price is 117.28 in this post-Christmas calm Tuesday.

 

[rosentray]

EUR/USD is trading relatively unchanged since yesterday's session. The pair is now 1.0451 in a market environment that lacks volatility and liquidity. The pair is expected to keep gravitating towards current levels until New Years' Eve.

 

[rosentray]

USD/CAD is having one last big move before the year ends in a few days. In the last trading days of 2016, USD/CAD registers a move to the upsde with prices going above 1.3550. Today, the pair is trading at its highest since the beginning of the bullish move on Dec 14. The price then was 1.3080 and had just met the long-term support.

Bulls did not miss the chance to go in and back the US dollar against its counterparty. Since then, the pair has made good progress going as high as 1.3580, which is seen as immediate resistance and also a double top.

If price goes above current levels, we might see a continuation of the upward move in early 2017. On the other hand, in the past few days we are seeing a timid and somehow protective US dollar, which might spread to the USD/CAD trading also. In that case, price could retreat to lower levels with first target at 1.3350.

 

[rosentray]

EUR/USD is trading slightly lower today but still remains in the consolidation zone between 1.05 and 1.0390. Main trend remains bearish with current market price at 1.0435. Important events are scheduled until the end of the week that can cause some volatility in the last trading days of 2016.