Market Commentary

[ijak8510]

Emas Catat Penurunan Mingguan Pertama Setelah Bullish Selama 7 Pekan

Harga emas terus bergerak melemah sepanjang sesi perdagangan hari Jumat (15/7) atau berada di zona penurunan pertama setelah rally selama 7 pekan secara beruntun. Melandai-nya harga logam mulia emas sebagai dampak pemulihan risk appetite sehingga hal ini mendorong Investor meninggalkan aset safe heaven emas dan kembali ke aset beresiko.


Pulihnya risk appetite tersebut tampak dari menghijau-nya Bursa Saham AS yang mencetak rekor tertinggi sepanjang pekan ini. Penurunan harga emas semakin dipertegas dengan rilisnya laporan fundamental AS seperti Retail Sales bulan Juni yang meningkat dan Inflasi konsumen AS yang tumbuh stabil mengindikasikan bahwa pemulihan ekonomi negeri Paman Sam terus berlanjut.

Awal pekan pada tanggal 11 Juli lalu, emas dibuka pada harga 1369.89 USD per troy ounce dan hingga hari Jumat ini harga emas sempat menyentuh low harian di level 1322.26 USD per troy ounce. Dengan demikian harga emas sudah turun sebanyak 3.53 persen sejak awal pekan atau penurunan 0.4 persen sepanjang sesi perdagangan hari Jumat ini.

Tidak hanya emas yang turun, kondisi serupa juga terlihat pada valuta safe heaven seperti Yen dan Franc Swiss. Untuk Yen mencatatkan penurunan terburuk sejak 1999 seperti yang terlihat pada pair USD/JPY dan GBP/JPY dimana posisi Yen sudah merosot begitu dalam sejak hari senin (11/7) lalu.

Saat berita ini akan diturunkan, harga emas berada di jalur penurunan pertama setelah rally selama 7 pekan beruntun. Emas diperdagangkan pada harga 1329.14 USD per troy ounce atau mendekati level terendah selama 2 pekan versus dollar AS.

 

[ijak8510]

EUR/AUD: A Good Summer Buy - Deutsche Bank

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EUR/AUD has lost most ground, butwe expect that cross in particular to outperform in the coming weeks.

On the Aussie leg, we expect another disappointing CPI print for Q2 will compel the RBA to cut the cash rate in August. Our local economists have penciled in a core inflation print of 1.5% y/y, well below the target band, and think this will be sufficient for the RBA to act. Moreover, the risk to this call is likely skewed to the downside considering that currency strength in Q2 also had a greater disinflationary impact in New Zealand than most long-term models predicted. With the rates market still sitting on the fence at ~13bps priced, a soft CPI print should see significant follow-through in the currency.

As for the euro leg, we consider the market too dovish in pricing a ~7bp lower depo rate by year-end. This week’s meeting should make it clearer that the ECB won’t panic over Brexit and, if necessary, would likely prefer to adjust QE in the autumn. But that prospect should be less bearish for the euro than a rate cut, and the meeting thus poses some upside risk to the euro. In the US and Japan, by contrast, currency-bullish policy re-pricings won’t likely happen before September. Over the summer, the Fed will likely remain reluctant to hint at any tightening by year-end, and the Abe administration should manage to keep alive some market expectations of a large fiscal stimulus in the autumn.

...In valuation terms, lastly, the euro is just as well protected against the Aussie as the yen, having struggled for years to undershoot PPP by more than 20%.

 

[ijak8510]

when i saw theese six JPY pair, i found all of them already formed a sell pattern,
ussually i never trade with h4 because it is long term time frame.
but let us see

I am waiting theese news

Here we go, sell All JPY

 

[aqibFXmart]

when i saw theese six JPY pair, i found all of them already formed a sell pattern,
ussually i never trade with h4 because it is long term time frame.
but let us see

I am waiting theese news

Here we go, sell All JPY

analisa yang bagus tuan. saya ijin nak tengok dan belajar boleh lah..

 

[ijak8510]

Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY

EUR/USD: Shift from neutral to bullish: Target a move to 1.1280.

The expected recovery in EUR was more robust and resilient than expected. The ease of which the 1.1150 resistance was taken out suggests further upside pressure. At this stage, the potential appears to be limited to 1.1280. Stop-loss for the bullish view is at 1.1060

GBP/USD: Neutral: Undertone has improved but 1.3320 is a major resistance.

The neutral phase in GBP that started more than 2 weeks ago is still intact. As highlighted in recent updates, while shorterterm upward momentum has improved, a sustained up-move in GBP is likely only if there is a clear break above the strong 1.3320 resistance. At this stage, the odds for a break of this level are not high even though they have increased considerably. Overall, the positive undertone would continue to improve as long as GBP stays above 1.3100.

AUD/USD: Neutral: Bullish if daily closing above 0.7600.

AUD is currently pressuring the top end of our expected 0.7440/0.7600 sideway trading range. Upward momentum has improved considerably and a daily closing above 0.7600 would indicate that a move towards 0.7675/80 (and possibly beyond) has started. Overall, this pair is expected to stay underpinned in the next few days with solid support at 0.7490.

NZD/USD: Shift from neutral to bullish: Overbought but room to extend higher to 0.7325.

We clearly underestimated the recent NZD strength as it continues to surge higher. The outlook has shifted to bullish but shorter-term indicators are severely overbought. That said, further extension to 0.7325 would not be surprising. Strong support is at 0.7150 but only a break below 0.7080 would indicate that the bullish expectation is wrong.

USD/JPY: Shift from neutral to bearish: Severely oversold but room to extend further 101.10.

The 3% plunge in USD last Friday has shifted the outlook to bearish. However, the rapid drop is clearly oversold but based on the current momentum, further extension to 101.10 would not be surprising (next support is at July’s low of 100.00/05). In order to maintain the current momentum, any rebound should not move back above 104.20.

 

[ijak8510]

USD/JPY, EUR/USD: What The Yield Spread Says?

The US/Japanese real 10year yield spread moved back out to 50bp after the payroll data, but just eye-balling the yield spread and USD/JPY suggests we’d need a 20bp move up in US real yields to have any chance of seeing USD/JPY 110. My hopes of that happening haven’t revived on these figures, and as for the 50bp move in relative yields that would point the way to USD/JPY120... that’s going to take better US data and a massive change of heart by the BOJ. Maybe a risk-friendly set of US numbers is enough to keep USD/JPY from breaking 100 for now, but the most we can hope for is that a 100-105 range is enough to give the Nikkei a bid...

The EUR/USD chart isn’t any more encouraging. The 10-year real yield differential, at 1.02%, is exactly at the average of 2016, and did I mention that the EUR/USD average this year is 1.1150? ½% below that is probably a fair discount for the Eurozone’s proximity to the UK. I’d rather get my duration kick in the Eurozone than the US (or the UK for that matter, though that’s not exactly working out at the moment).