HLB Invest
kebarangkalian memohon saham UMW bermodalkan awal sebanyak 11000 unit (RM30,800), dan yg akan sangkut hanya 10000 unit. so, RM2800 akan dikembalikan.rujuk cth di page 193. sekiranya mensasarkan kenaikan pada kadar 15% iaitu 3.22; untung kasar dijangkakan sebanyak RM4,200.
Tempoh modal digunakan: Langgan 14 Oct - Jual 1 Nov = 19 hari.
Published: Friday October 11, 2013 MYT 12:00:00 AM
UMW O&G, the only pure rig-related domestic player, is expected to acquire at least two more new rigs after its IPO.
By Hong Leong Investment Bank
Target price: RM3.36
Buy (initiate coverage)
DOMESTICALLY, there is a shortage of locally-owned rigs. As of September 2013, there were 16 jack-up rigs operating in Malaysia but only two were locally-owned (Naga 3 & 4).
Fourteen foreign jacks-up rig contracts are expected to expire within two years with three in the second half of 2013, four in first half of 2014, five in second half 2014 and two in 2015.
Hence, the research house expects tender and contract award to accelerate in the next two years with the early call for tender by end-2013.
The average age of jack-up rigs is around 13 years compared with UMW O&G’s new rigs at below three years. Industry players indicated that oil majors preferred to spend more to charter newer rigs
Domestically, the ETP-driven RM300bil capex to enhance exploration, enhanced oil recovery and marginal fields requires massive level of drilling activities which the financial market has underestimated.
UMW O&G is the only pure rig-related domestic play with sizeable market capitalisation which makes it likely to attract premium valuations.
It expects to raise RM1.7bil from the initial public offering (IPO) with RM1bil allocated to acquire drilling rigs and hydraulic workover units.
HLIB assumes UMW O&G will acquire at least two more new rigs after the IPO with net gearing remaining manageable at 0.35 times in the financial year ending Dec 31, 2014 (FY14), which suggests more room for asset expansion.
UMW O&G’s earnings are expected to grow at CAGR of 51% from FY13 to FY15. In longer term, HLIB expects price to earnings ratio (P/E) to fall to 14 times in FY15 with a conservative assumption of additional one rig per year after FY14.
HLIB initiated coverage on UMW O&G with a “buy” call and a target price of RM3.36 based on 20 times average FY14 to FY15 P/E as the full contribution from Naga 5 and Naga 6 will only be reflected in FY15.
Target Price / Fair Value for UMWOG
ZamSaham: 3.30-4.00
HLIB – RM3.36
Kenanga – RM3.33
HWangDBS – RM3.20
Apex:3.15
CIMB – RM3.10
M&A Securities – RM3.10
SJ Securities – RM 3.10