IDEA: Strategi TANPA INDICATOR dalam forex trading

[Meet Joe Black]

tu yg sy maksudkan teknik no 1 satu tu.. guna dekat GU, UJ, GJ.. selalu sebelum news USD kita akan nmpak impak nya.. Selalu Bila GU jatuh, trader assume GJ akan turut serta, walhal UJ jadi penetu bg kekuatan Japanese Yen.

Buy GU Sell UJ dan sell GJ sebenarnya hedging GJ

Buy GU Sell UJ = Buy GJ

 

[rayz]

erm

Consider the three foreign exchange rates among the Canadian dollar, the U.S. dollar, and the Australian dollar. Triangular arbitrage will produce a profit whenever the following relation does not hold:
CD$/US$ * AU$/CD$ = AU$/US$.
For example if you can trade at these exchange rates
the Canadian Dollar (CD$) against the US dollar (US$) is CD$1.13/US$1.00 (1 US$ gets you CD$1.13)
the Australian Dollar (AU$) against the US dollar (US$) is AU$1.33/US$1.00 (1 US$ gets you AU$1.33)
the Australian Dollar (AU$) against the Canadian Dollar (CD$) is AU$1.18/CD$1.00 (1 CD$ gets you AU$1.18)
1.13 * 1.18 = 1.3334 > 1.3300, thus mispricing has occurred.
To take advantage of the mispricing, starting with US$10,000 to invest:
1st buy Canadian Dollars with his US Dollars: US$10,000 * (CD$1.13/US$1) = CD$11,300
2nd buy Australian Dollars with his Canadian Dollars: CD$11,300 * (AU$1.18/CD$1.00) = AU$13,334
3rd buy US Dollars with his Australian Dollars: AU$13,334 / (AU$1.33/US$1.0000) = US$10,025
Net risk free profit: US$25.00
A profit maximizing trader presented with these prices will trade up to the maximum size possible, or equivalently do the trade as many times as possible, until one of the traders on the other side of one of the deals changes his price. In practice currencies are quoted with a bid ask spread, so a trader should be careful that he is actually buying at the quoted ask price, and selling at the quoted bid price. Other transaction costs, such as commissions often prevent the trade from being profitable.

ni teknik netting arbitary ni ker:-?

 

[MAIDIN]

Buy GU Sell UJ dan sell GJ sebenarnya hedging GJ

Buy GU Sell UJ = Buy GJ

bila kita trade 3 pair ni serentak . adakah ianya akan berakhir dengan net profit .

 

[Meet Joe Black]

bila kita trade 3 pair ni serentak . adakah ianya akan berakhir dengan net profit .

Trade serentak jadi net spread.
Untuk profit, kena close pair yang profit GJ atau (GU-UJ)
Dan tunggu retracement, overbought/oversold, RSI cecah lantai atau cecah siling untuk close pair yang 1 lagi.

 

[mankj]

gua pun nak blajar gak teknik nih ngan TT.....mungkin bro maidin pun buleh ajar gua jugak. bro maidin pakai EA atau manual? gua tengok asyik withdraw riban2 jer....paid

p/s sorry tt off topic sikit.

 

[MAIDIN]

Ini satu lagi secret menggunakan teknik correlation.
Cuba tengok chart di atas (FXCM Trading Station - Marketscope 2.0)

Marketscope boleh overlaykan price currency lain dalam satu chart.
Maksudnya, kalau kita buka EU, kita boleh letak price GU pada chart EU. 2 price dalam 1 chart.

Apa anda boleh perhatikan dalam chart di atas.
Kadang2 EU berada di atas, GU berada di bawah dan sebaliknya.
Kadang2 EU dan GU bersilang.
Kalau EU berada di atas maksudnya EU lebih uptrend dari GU, vice versa.

Bagaimana nak trade price overlay mcm ni? Senang saja. Tengok chart sudah tau. Bila gap EU dan GU semakin besar, Sell pair kat atas dan buy pair dekat bawah.
Tunggu price bersilang dan close. Profit most of the time.

Install FXCM Trade Station dan try sendiri.
Demo dulu sehingga anda betul2 faham dan mahir. Lepas tu baru live.

bermakna syarat untuk masuk post 2 pair ni adalah , kene tengok gap dia dulu ye . kalau rapat sgt price dia . maknanya takleh masuk post ye .

kalau gap price antara 2 pair ni besar baru open post . tp kadar besar yg dimaksudkan tu berape pips jauhnya bro ?

 

[MAIDIN]

Consider the three foreign exchange rates among the Canadian dollar, the U.S. dollar, and the Australian dollar. Triangular arbitrage will produce a profit whenever the following relation does not hold:
CD$/US$ * AU$/CD$ = AU$/US$.
For example if you can trade at these exchange rates
the Canadian Dollar (CD$) against the US dollar (US$) is CD$1.13/US$1.00 (1 US$ gets you CD$1.13)
the Australian Dollar (AU$) against the US dollar (US$) is AU$1.33/US$1.00 (1 US$ gets you AU$1.33)
the Australian Dollar (AU$) against the Canadian Dollar (CD$) is AU$1.18/CD$1.00 (1 CD$ gets you AU$1.18)
1.13 * 1.18 = 1.3334 > 1.3300, thus mispricing has occurred.
To take advantage of the mispricing, starting with US$10,000 to invest:
1st buy Canadian Dollars with his US Dollars: US$10,000 * (CD$1.13/US$1) = CD$11,300
2nd buy Australian Dollars with his Canadian Dollars: CD$11,300 * (AU$1.18/CD$1.00) = AU$13,334
3rd buy US Dollars with his Australian Dollars: AU$13,334 / (AU$1.33/US$1.0000) = US$10,025
Net risk free profit: US$25.00
A profit maximizing trader presented with these prices will trade up to the maximum size possible, or equivalently do the trade as many times as possible, until one of the traders on the other side of one of the deals changes his price. In practice currencies are quoted with a bid ask spread, so a trader should be careful that he is actually buying at the quoted ask price, and selling at the quoted bid price. Other transaction costs, such as commissions often prevent the trade from being profitable.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DF90We_xjY4

kalau ikut link video atas ni . aku rasa mcm nak gi check kat money changer je . bawak 100 usd , tukar ke yen . lepas tu yen tu tukar ke pound , lepas tu pound tu tukar ke usd . nak tengok , boleh profit tak . sebab money changer tak berubah kan harga dia dalam 30 minit .

spread di money changer tinggi tak ?

 

[Meet Joe Black]

bermakna syarat untuk masuk post 2 pair ni adalah , kene tengok gap dia dulu ye . kalau rapat sgt price dia . maknanya takleh masuk post ye .

kalau gap price antara 2 pair ni besar baru open post . tp kadar besar yg dimaksudkan tu berape pips jauhnya bro ?

How big is too big? Itu yang menjadi persoalan besar.
Kalau enter trade, tapi gap makin besar, jadi drawdown.
Jadi, kalau gap makin besar, enter trade 1 lagi, position dan lot size yang sama untuk buat cost averaging. Sometimes, kena buat cost averaging sampai 3-5 kali baru profit, tapi margin dan MM kena jaga. Semi-martingalekan pun boleh.

Gap yang paling bagus kalau EU dan GU berlawanan arah.
30th dan 31th March, 2 kali EU turun tetapi GU mencanak naik.

 

[MAIDIN]

How big is too big? Itu yang menjadi persoalan besar.
Kalau enter trade, tapi gap makin besar, jadi drawdown.
Jadi, kalau gap makin besar, enter trade 1 lagi, position dan lot size yang sama untuk buat cost averaging. Sometimes, kena buat cost averaging sampai 3-5 kali baru profit, tapi margin dan MM kena jaga. Semi-martingalekan pun boleh.

Gap yang paling bagus kalau EU dan GU berlawanan arah.
30th dan 31th March, 2 kali EU turun tetapi GU mencanak naik.

contohnya bila ada GAP .. kita buy yg di bawah dan sell yg di atas ..

buy GU
sell EU

lepas tu GU jatuh lagi 50 pips
dan EU mencanak naik 50 pips

bermakna kita float 100 pips . betulkan ?

dalam keadaan camni , bro cadangkan masuk lagi post dengan lost dan posisi yg sama ataupun kalau GU 1 lot , jadikan second post for GU 2 lot , begitu ke ?


dari pengalaman bro, pernah tak berlaku DD yg tinggi seperti keadaan di atas tu ?

 

[lukpayat]

more details here...
http://www.kreslik.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=307

dan sini untuk indicator

http://www.forex-tsd.com/indicators-metatrader-4/6008-fpi-predictive-price.html

ini adalahteknik berdasar kan FPI = fractional product inefficiency.

di mana, secara teorinya, a/b * B/c * C/a = 1, tapi di sebabkan oleh inefficiency, dia takkan jadi 1.

ideally, kita nak masuk all 3 pairs pada masa FPI less than 1, and close all pada FPI > 1.

mr Joe ade bagi contoh pada page 1.

benda ni jugak kita leh guna utk tgk tahap "stretching" of GJ kalau kita guna GU UJ GJ combination..

product of these 3 pairs akan swing daripada 0.93 kepada 1.07...

pada masa ni, theoretically, the pair akan melantun balik. (mathematically le) tapi ade byk factor lain yg buat dia tak jadi sometimes...

untuk entry kena pakay script, close pon kena pakai script kalau kat Mt4 sebab window of profit tu dia menjelma kejap je...

i ade EA based on this... tapi disebab kan MT4 ade banyak filtering, spiking, and delay... this method is not that popular mong mt4 users.

data feed mesti cepat, tepat and accurate. perhaprs ECN stp broker can provide this.

ada banyak tick data provider kat internet ni yg provide raw tick data w/o filtering and true real time.. cuma kena bayor le...

anyway, tahniah TT... i hv abandoned this technique, tp kalau ade sambutan, kita leh diskas sini..

sapa nak script, leh PM aku... ataupon modify je script dari thread 1000pips tu..