HOT counters...from technical analysis point of view

[alib4b4]

Perdana 7108: tara cun ini ari

hoye hoye...ni haw ma?

sori arr beb. wa mmg cegini kalo baru blk dr choti2 1mesia...kepala tak brp nak tune lg sbnrnya..mana taknya kepala lutut pun ilang ntah ke mana...otak lg arrr. asyik teringat kenangan manesz di punchak donia je muahahaha

so kalo wa kureng fokus sket, maap lah ye?

nampak gayanya rini klse berdarah lg. djia merah, hang seng merah=kita pon merah. dgr citer kat europe sana pon masalah poblem (kesilapan ejaan adalah disengajakan) lg. so overall picture is not good sana sini.

oklah. kali ni kita sambung lg psl kaunter perdana nih. so, perdana ni pun wpun semlm nak mcm ada gaya nak rebound, terusz tak jd rebound. merah lg ada arr. 1 lg mende yg wa tak perasan is the low volume (wa pon manusia mcm lu gak lah kan?). so kalo low volume ni, mmg payah sket arr nak rebound dgn jayanya. ni 1 lg point yg lu kena ingat...traders always look for high volume. no volume=no gerak. no gerak=no untung. no untung=no aweks mao ajak gi choti2 1mesia di punchak donia...muahahaha

indicators pon nampaknya kureng memberangsangkan rini. wpun macd still green bar above the signal line, macd line reading sama dgn signal line reading ie: -0.02. so no cun 1. stochastic pon super. %K < %D and smoothed %D. so mmg tara cun ini maciam.

so apa mao buat dgn perdana? hehehe. tetiba wa teringat cemana wa tekel aweks2 wa lak dah. bila wa dah aim itu aweks kan, wa akan usha2 dulu sblm mengambil langkah utk approach lah. so wa akan study dia keje/belajar kat mana, routine dia cemana, dia kwn dgn saper etc lah sblm wa minta no tepon ataupun ym id muahahaha.

so cegini gak dgn share trading. lu dah aim itu kaunter, sblm lu banzai, lu study dulu peel dia betul2. lu jgn maen pakai hantam je beb. kang lu gak yg terduduk sengih soang2 dlm jamban kang )

mende? lu takde aweks sampei skrg? hehehe...patut lar lu trade pon manjang loss je..muahahaha (wa pon ada loss gak. tp takkan nak citer dgn lu lah kan? muahahaha)

 

[alib4b4]

Keywest 0095

ok beb. masa trading td wa ada terperasan ini kaunter: keywest. lu jgn tanya apa biz dia...(wa tak pedulik & wa tamo amek pedulik) muahahaha

sbb apa wa terperasan? sb mula2, wa nampak kaunter ni dah dok bwh BB (ciri2 faberet wa nih). then bersepah bullish reversal yg ada for the last 4 trading days tp price tak shoot up lg (feberet gak ni). then the price is well supported by MA100. then volume leh tahan. then dia dok kat stochastic oversold area waiting for bullish crossover (feberet gak). tp di ant byk2 feberet wa is price dia tak naik2 lg wpun semua ciri2 yg wa ckp td dah ada...still ingat kaunter pelik wa ritu? mbsb kan? hehehe

so kali ni, wa tak pakai classical support (S) & resistance (R) lines. wa pakai MA lines as my S & R. thinking of introducing another way of using MA lines as S & R...

so citer dia cegini...MA100 tu akan jd kita nyer S lah. kalo price dia break the MA100, just say bye2 je lah nanti. at the same time, MA50 is our 1st R now. meaning, kalo khamis nanti djia tak buat lawak, europe tak buat kelakar, ada chance la price dia akan test MA50. then kalo dia tembus itu MA50, the next target is the MA20 lah...

so let's say khamis nanti sumer hijo je belaka, cemana nak trade ini kaunter? kalo sumer +ve next thurs:

E=0.165
TP1=0.18
TP2=0.205
SL=0.155

tp sblm lu hantam nanti, lu usha lar dia nyer volume gak. esp buying vol vs selling vol

tp sini wa nak ingatkan...ni hit n run punya action arrr..takde hold2 sampai jd tukun nak kasi wasiat sama anak2 cucu lu nanti. lu lambat, lu kantoi. lu lambat, lu melepas...tu je

sama gak arr dgn situasi di kedinginan punchak donia ritu...kalo wa dah tgk kepala aweks tu dah melentok2, mao tgu mende lg lah? tak rheti2 lg nak buat mende bila 'signal2' dah ada? kalo tak rheti2 gak buat mende, wa ada suggestion...kumpul uang byk2, pastu gi tuko jantina kat siam (buek mengabehkan boraih jo) muahahaha )

 

[alib4b4]

Trends 101

hoye hoye..ni haw maa?

rini wa decide nak dok umah tenung notebook je. sbb apa? sbb rini ujan lobek. cadang nak ride ke punchak donia dgn aweks amoi ipoh mali. dah ujan, ride kepala otak mende? kang wa tergolek tepi hway, wa gak yg rhogi (sbb takleh nak berlazat2 ant pusat & lutut...muahahaha)

so wa kensel lar aktiviti jln2 cari mkn rini...tp no hal. small the matter (hahaha). lgpun setakat sari je & kat tgh2 minggu lak tu choti, buang karan je nak overnite bagai...baek wa study chart betul2, bikin uanggggg beso dulu & baru spend time the whole weekend bersama2 menggapai awan kat punchak donia. baru berbaloi2 lah kan? alang2 nak patah pinggang, biar patah 1000...muahahaha )

ok rini wa dlm mood nak jd tukang karut (che'gu). kali ni wa expose sama lu 1 kaunter dlm portfolio long term wa. ya betul: petgas. ini kaunter manyak cun bg wa sbb 2 faktor:

1) div yg amat lumayan
2) capital appreciation yg amat lumayan juga


all this while yg wa share dgn lu oang tu is my hit n run punya portfolio. so kalo hit n run punya, wa tara pedulik itu dividen ka apa ka. yg wa pedulik, wa mao pegi choti2 1mesia sama aweks wa, wa tak pakai duit wa...yg wa tau, vacation wa menggapai awan bersama2 aweks di puchak donia adalah foc! muahahaha. so my hit n run portfolio is for a very short term to achieve a short term 'target' (target apa? tu lu sendrik mao pikir...muahahaha)

back to petgas. kalo lu usha betul2 graf yg wa attached nih, lu akan perasan ada 3 trend:

1) Uptrend (yg plg obvious)
2) Sideway (yg obvious)
3) Downtrend (yg tak brp obvious)

for each trend, dia ada trading strategy yg tersendiri. wa dah letak dlm chart tu, kalo Uptrend, lu pakai Trend Trading (TT) strategy. kalo Sideway, lu pakai Swing Trading (ST) strategy & kalo Downtrend=Counter Trend (CT) strategy.

utk portfolio wa yg betul2, wa jarang2 pakai CT. wa just apply TT (the most) & flwd by ST. to utk portfolio jln2 cari mkn wa, wa akan concentrate cari kaunter2 yg wa leh pakai CT (senang dpt uangggg maaa)

each of the strategies tu ada characteristics dia yg tersendiri. so lu kena paham apakemenatangnya dulu b4 lu pakai strategy yg sesuai mengikut trend semasa sst kaunter. means that lu jgn main tgk vol je utk enter the mkt. identify the trend 1st, suit with the trading strategy & then baru lu tgk vol, S&R & chart formation. mende2 lain spt: signals, indicators etc kemedian citer

application:
kita start fm mid oct-dec 2011. during this period, petgas was stagnant (side way). so price dia fluctuate along the 20MA je. masa ni 20MA didnt really give us any 'value'. so masa ni, kena buat classical S&R kalo nak trade pakai ST strategy. hit S=buy. hit R=sell.

fm dec2011-mar2012, petgas was hvg a fabolous Uptrend movement. so kat sini strategy yg kita pakai is TT lah. kalo lu usha betul2, MA20 is the strong Support for that period. ekceli, lu masuk in dec2011, lu takyah buat apa2 until mar2012. ni kita panggil ride the trend together2 (ride together2??? muahaha). so, as long as the price tak jatuh dr 20MA, lu just senyum je arrr.

then ada correction starting fm mar2012. price petgas broke 20MA & pierced down the BB with long black candle (this is when i like the most in my hit n run portfolio). so bila cegini, wait for bullish reversal signal & counter trade the trend. ni lah dia CT trading. a very short opportunity in a very short timeframe...

after that around mid mar2012 until now, petgas is consolidating. so 20MA, again, doesnt bring us any 'value'. so kena start blk identify classical S&R utk ST strategy pulak...

ishhh lapo lak wa ni. nak keluo malas. arghhh mende susah...maggi ada! muahahaha. lu jgn tatau, aweks2 wa mmg suka wa masak maggi utk derang ekceli..(esp bila masing2 dah 'letih' nak keluo mkn...hahaha). skill wa masak maggi dlm gayung masa kat sekolah bdk2 jahat dulu mmg tak sia2 lah! )

 

[alib4b4]

mhb 5186

ok utk esok, wa dah kasi dah 1 kaunter: keywest. ni kaunter caplang punya. tp pedulik apa caplang ke maplang ke...janji leh buat uanggg beso esok lah kan?

mlm ni wa kasi lg 1 kaunter: mhb. ini kompeni, fundamentally kira strong arr. a subs of misc which in turn a subs of petroMas. so kalo ada nama petroMas, lu toksah risau arrr...cuma mangkuk2 ayun kat dlm tu ada gak arr mengongnya juga. tp tu pi lantak derang arrr. lu nak biz tp lu buat mcm keje mkn gaji, mmg tgu masa je arr nak kong kali kong )

as a trader, we dun give it a damn whether mangkuk2 ayun ke mangkuk2 tak berayun ke kat dlm tu. yg kita mao is uang beso! muahahaha

so mhb nampak gayanya ada ciri2 yg wa minat. esp bila ada signal bullish reversal: bullish engulfing after 5 downtrending trading days. pastu punya beso white candle yg last sekali. then ditambah pula perisa ajinomoto with its huge buying vol. technically, we can say that mhb will most likely will rebound nanti.

dlm chart, wa dah kasi siap2 trading plan plus the risk n reward (RnR) calculation. ni kira bonus arr utk lu. sbb b4 this wa taknah lg citer psl RnR kan? so, trading plan kita cegini:

E=5.38
TP1=5.50
TP2=5.65
SL=5.28

mcm biasa, esok pepehal mao usha buying vol vs selling vol dulu. kalo price dia cecah E with high buying vol, baru masuk. kalo dia cecah TP1, lu nyer gain approx 0.12/unit. then kalo dia canak lg sampai TP2, gain lu is 0.266/unit. tp kalo dia bearish, lu nyer SL is 5.28 with 0.10/unit loss. ni displin yg takde saper2 yg leh ajar lu. hanya lu je yg leh mentarbiahkan diri lu sendiri utk ikut the trading plan lah kan...

oh ya, td wa lepak dgn aweks wa kat the chilli's citta mall mkn steak. wa tara hal mkn situ tiap2 minggu sampai kena gout...sbb bkn uanggg wa yg keluo pon...muahahaha. kalo sesaper yg nampak mamat selebet tak semenggah dok rapat2 dgn aweks amoi ipoh mali kat situ td, wa lah tu. wpun beza umor kitaorg lbh krg 16thn, i leave it to the money to do the talking (coz i'd prefer to do the action after that) muahahaha

 

[alib4b4]

counters to watch 16-20 Apr 2012

sorry arr beb. wa agak ketat (read as: i'm a bit tight) 2-3 ari ni...ada 'domestic issue' sket...

bkn mende, wa pon manusia biasa gak. tak lps dr buat silap. tp kali ni mmg di ant silap plg ******* penah wa buat arrr. ekceli wa silap sebut nama aweks wa kat aweks wa yg soang lg tu...

apalagi? world war III lah jwbnya! muahahaha )

so wa tak dapek nak celoteh pjg tp lu tgk arrr kot2 mana2 yg berkenan di ati. for the next week, try cuba usha 3 kaunter ni:

alam
E: 0.705
TP1: 0.73
TP2: 0.775
SL: 0.67

bertam:
E: 0.825
TP1: 0.85
TP2: 0.88
SL: 0.765

media:
E: 2.61
TP1: 2.72
TP2: 2.75
SL: 2.54

akhir sekali wa sudahi posting kali ini dgn ucapan:

lain kali kalo nak sebut nama aweks, kalo lu ada lbh dr soang aweks, sila usha muka dia betul2 dulu sblm lidah lu main pakai hantam je sebut...

muahahaha )

 

[miezafxx]

Bro hang screen kaunter yg byk2 tuh cemana eh?

 

[alib4b4]

Bro hang screen kaunter yg byk2 tuh cemana eh?

ok. cemana wa screen kaunter2 ni ye? hehehe. ni wa kena conduct course ni...tp wa nak kena minta tlg aweks wa sekali assist wa lar..bole? kalo course ni wa namakan 'technical analysis: why u keep on losing money in klse'. ok tak?

oklah, sementara course ni betul2 jadik (sbb sbnrnya lu nak usha aweks wa je kan? ceh!), wa citer arr sket2 cemana wa buat...ni just amek example portfolio hit n run wa je

b4 anything, lu trade/invest share ni, dlm kepala otak lu, lu kena ckp kat diri lu yg lu buat biznes & bkn keje mkn gaji. kalo attitude lu mcm keje mkn gaji, wa nak ckp siang2, share mkt is NOT for u (unless mak bapak lu kaya giler baban yg leh tanggung lu sampai lu mamposss, lu leh arrr ada mindset cegitu...muahahaha). so what is the ultimate objective of a business?

utk sesaper yg pakai technical analysis (TA), 1 mende yg signifikan dlm stock selection is the volume! tp wa bkn nak ckp yg lg tinggi volume, lg tinggi chances lu beli. kalo tu lu punya mindset, it's either lu akan ilang lu punya uanggg or u hv no choice but to be a 'longgggggg term investor' (aka simpan buat jd tukun ataupun buat labu peram je share2 tu). betul tak? muahahaha )

so lu leh start screen fm volume movers 1st la. then lu study dia nyer chart.

kenkdg wa usha sector punya chart. contoh: finance sector. wa akan start study weekly finance sector chart. then kalo ada ok, wa zoom lg ke daily chart. kalo nampak ok, wa akan zoom lg kpd leaders dlm finance sector. then baru wa zoom in kpd laggards dlm sector ni. #:-S

contoh lg, mcm wa tgk klci nya chart is hvg 20MA as its strong support. then wa tau ada 30 kaunter2 komponen dlm klci. so wa usha2 la these 30 counters. yg mana 20MA dia is its strong support (mcm klci gak), wa henjut arrr

so lu leh gak buat cegini: screen the sector>leaders>laggards

tp selalunya wa combine dgn FA (esp news lar). ni aweks wa akan kasi wa baca the edge financial daily tiap2 ari. then dia akan screen dgn research houses punya reports everyday. dia akan buat 1 list & dia akan kasi sama wa (utk wa usha 'barang' dia yg yea hitu...muahahaha). kat sini, the importance is to get the feel, what are the 'hot counters' fm fundamental analysis point of view. contohnya mcm wa share dgn lu kaunter mbsb dulu tu..sampai 4 research houses buat coverage utk 1 kuanter. logically, it is a matter of time sj kaunter tu nak canak naik kalo dah ada 4 tukang karut yg mengarut secara serentak...muahahaha

so cara ni pun, lu leh pakai gak..compare FA vs TA

kalo screening on9, lu leh pakai tradesignum nyer screening. ni free punya...tp lu paham2 je lah kalo mende free ni kan? so lu jgn expect lebey2 & lu jgn byk bunyik lar

aper? lu ingat wa berfoya2 di punchak donia menggegel2 2ari 2mlm tak keluo2 bilik, free? lu ingat aweks2 tu nak mengendeng2 kat bahu wa kalo wallet wa ada 2 hengget je? no money, no talk la kwn...eh silap. no money, u still can talk...but u talk cock (& fly kite) soang2 je arrr...muahahaha

 

[alib4b4]

mhb 5186

amacam mhb? ada ok ka? hehehe. ok tak ok, lu tgk sendrik arr chart ni.

so ada chance canak gi TP1? tung-guuuuuuuuuu

 

[alib4b4]

bertam 9814

rini only bertam yg meet our Entry price. so let's take a look at the graph...

amacam? sket lg mao cecah TP1 kan? so, kpd sesaper yg berkenaan, sila jampi2 & tiup ayer2 apa yg patut esok...muahahaha

kalo nak jampi tu alang2, bior le sampai atap terus (takat jampi soh cecah TP1, baek toksah. lu tgk je arr chart wa nih..muahaha)

 

[alib4b4]

media-bullish inverted hammer on 170412

sorry arr beb. wa agak ketat (read as: i'm a bit tight) 2-3 ari ni...ada 'domestic issue' sket...

muahahaha )

sori beb..wa still dgn 'domestic issue' wa. tak sompek nak update. apapun, watch out for media..semlm dah ada bullish inverted hammer...baekk punya rini kalo volume canak

apapun, trade safely ya

adios!