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XAUUSD Gold I SHS and Bullish Flag Potential Long Opportunity

XAUUSD Gold I SHS and Bullish Flag Potential Long Opportunity

On the H4 chart timeframe, we can see that Inv. Head and Shoulders pattern and Bullish Flag formation.

Both neckline and baseline of the patterns are located at the same level.

As we have published in our previous XAUUSD trade idea which we have entered already, we look for a buying opportunity as soon as the price breaks above the trend line.

The targets of the formations are 1312 and 1324. Stop Loss must be placed below 1296.

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GBPJPY Technical Analysis And Trade Idea

GBPJPY ended the day above EMA 50 and EMA 100 of H4 Chart Time Frame. Dragon reversed from the trendline support. The midterm trend is bullish.

Fibonacci 61.8 and MM 6/8 is located at 147.600. Break below 147.600 will carry the price 148.400 of MM 6/8 Major resistance.

The second resistance is at 147.750 – EMA 200-

We have two closed trades which generated 240 pips. Our Trade idea is :

TRADE: LONG

ENTRY: 147.230

STOP: 146.500

TAKE PROFIT 1: 148.400

TAKE PROFIT 2: 149.150

Alternative Trade idea for conservative traders:

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Crude Oil Forecast And Technical Analysis : Eyes on OPEC Summit

Crude Oil Forecast And Technical Analysis: Eyes on OPEC Summit

The rumours that Saudi Arabia and Russia might decide to increase production caused oil prices to fall to close to 3 % on Friday. Meanwhile; U.S. exports were threatened by potential Chinese tariffs on crude oil and refined products.

Saudi Arabia and Russia have already boosted production modestly, and have indicated they were prepared to increase output at that meeting.

Some investors were surprised when crude oil and other energy products were included for tariffs at a later date, the official Xinhua news agency reported, citing the Tariff Commission of the State Council.

Over the past six months, the United States has exported an average 363,000 bpd of crude oil to China, which along with Canada is the biggest buyer of U.S. crude.

Technically:

The short term trend is bearish.

A bearish flag formation completed in the H4 chart. The target of the formation is 62.80.

Crude ended the week 64.24 which meets Fibonacci 78.60 %. At the same level, we see the MM 0/8 Main Support.

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XAUUSD Gold Analysis: Shall the bulls leave the game?

Fundamentals:

Gold prices are under a strong selling pressure weighted down by surging momentum in the U.S. dollar as monetary policy between the U.S. and Europe continue to diverge.

Despite hawkish sentiment from FED, Gold price was able to hold above the psychological support level of 1300 USD. But Friday was the breaking point. After the big breakdown in the EURUSD exchange rate yesterday, the positively-correlating gold was always going to struggle to sustain its gain

I believe that we will see further softness in Gold. However, since the uncertainty remains high in the face of a growing trade war between the U.S. and China, I plan to use this bearish movement as buying opportunities.

The main question is ” when/where to buy?”

I do not think we will face a major sell-off in Gold. No major catalysts to push the prices higher, but there are factors which may change the negative sentiments soon especially as the Trump administration approved $50 billion in new tariffs on Chinese imports. It is expected that China will again retaliate with its own tariffs on U.S. imports, with agriculture products in the crosshairs. The political environment will keep Gold Bulls alive.

One more thing to keep eyes on is the FED’s focus on global trade and economic issues. If the Fed becomes really concerned about trade issues that would have very positive effects in XAUUSD.

Technicals:

XAUUSD ended the week 1278.45 below EMA 50, EMA 100 and EMA 200 in daily charts.

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EURUSD Under Pressure as DXY gains strength

EUR speculative net longs retreated to the lowest level since December 19 2017 on the week to June 12, according to the latest CFTC report.

On the USD-side, renewed tensions on the US-China front following US tariffs and Chinese retaliatory measures appear to have removed some tailwinds from the recent upbeat momentum in the buck.

No important data flow ahead, technicals will be on the stage.

Key Levels:

1.15350 MM 1/8 Weak Stall Reverse is the first target of the pair.

1.15300 – 1.15100 appears to be the last demand zone. I do not think the support will work again.

1.14800 is the key level. EURO Bulls is likely to think twice at 1.14800.

We will keep selling with the target 1.14800.

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CHFJPY Bullish Bat Harmonic Pattern Long Opportunity

Time Frame: M30

Pattern: Harmonic Bullish Bat

Note: Pattern completed in a smaller chart timeframe. Therefore it can be used for scalping only.

TRADE: long

AREA OF THE ENTRY: 110.500 – 110.400

STOP: 110.200

TP1: 110.700

TP2: 110.0900

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GBPUSD Technical Analysis and Bullish Bat Pattern

Fundamentals:

On the Sterling side, we will have a quite London session with no major macroeconomic data release.

Brexit negotiations continue to grind to a stuttering halt, with key drafts from the June EU summit showing little to no resolutions to the current Irish border issue, and the EU’s Bernier is warning people that they need to be prepared for all possible outcomes, including a “hard Brexit” scenario, one where the UK goes ahead with separating from the EU without any kind of trade agreement in place.

Traders’ focus will remain locked on the upcoming Bank of England (BoE) rate decision, due on Thursday at 11:00 GMT, where the BoE is expected to hold off once again on a rate increase.

On the USD side, we will have Home Sales figures which seems to be a fewer effect on the pair. Brexit and Trade Wars are likely to remain as the determining factors .

Technically:

Cable is trading 1.31600 as of writing.

From the indicators point of view; 1.30600 appears to be the main support for the pair as the MA 100 in the weekly chart. The near-term trendline support is located at the same levels.

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Crude Oil Forecast And Technical Analysis 06-27-2018

Total supply of 1 million barrels from Saudi Arabia and Russia in the upcoming period could cover only the half of the 2.43 million barrels/day supply cut of Iran (if all states conform to the US) .

In the current situation of Iran’s daily oil exports of 620 thousand barrels China, 560 thousand barrels of the EU, 470 thousand barrels of India, 400 thousand barrels of South Korea, 230 thousand barrels of Turkey and 140 K to Japan.. Here, 1.8 million barrels of petroleum may be withdrawn from daily world production when it is thought that China is the strongest candidate to comply with the US call. This figure cannot be easily covered by Saudi Arabia and Russia, which can increase capacity. We may see further increase in the Oil Prices.

The price action of the Crude confirms us the same. As we have written in our latest analysis, Crude opened the week with a gap, but the Bulls jumped into the arena.

Technically:

We see the golden cross in the weekly charts. This indicates a new bullish wave.

The scene is almost the same in the H4 Chart timeframe. EMA 50,100 and 200 formed Golden Cross.

US Crude Oil CLc1 is trading at 70.70 – Spot Forex 70.31 – as of writing. This is the Fibonacci 78.6% of the latest decline. An H4 closing above 70.85 – Spot Forex 70.40 – might carry the prices CLc1 71.70 and 72.60 of the latest highs.

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EURUSD Rises 100 pips, eyes on EU Inflation figures

EURUSD moved above 1.16000 – triggered by the EU migration deal –

If EU summit failed to reach consensus, the EU’s unity would have likely shattered. More importantly, the failure to reach a deal would have brought down German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s coalition government.

The pair is trading at 1.16600 as of writing, which opened at 1.15600 in Asia.

The Eurozone CPI will be released at 09:00 GMT and we will have US core personal consumption expenditure which is scheduled for release at 12:30 GMT.

Technically :

EURUSD jumped above EMA 50 in H4 Chart. It is trading in the upper Bollinger Bands and testing the EMA 100 resistance.

1.16600 appears to be a strong resistance level as MM 6/8 Major Reverse. Price needs to make H4 closings above 1.16600 to continue its upside movement.

Above the current level, 1.16800 remains as the major resistance. It is the median line Bollinger Bands and MM 7/8 Weak Stall. If the price breaks above 1.16800, 1.17100 likely to be tested. ( A positive EU CPI might be the catalyst)

On the downside; 1.16200 and 1.15800 remains as the support levels.
 

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EURUSD Forecast And Technical Overview Week 9-13 July

Trade war, US Unemployment, Wages and FOMC minutes.

Fundamentally:

Trade war began. Dollar passed the week under the bearish pressure caused by the trade war worries. USD hit by soft unemployment data and wages growth figures under the expectations on the last day of the week.

On the Euro side, less hawkish but far from dovish minutes was the catalyst of the bullish move. Reports indicating that “ECB’s policymakers believe that rising rates by the end of 2019 would be too late” was another catalyst.

This week we will have the inflation figures both from Eurozone and U.S. But I believe that the trade war will be the most determining factor of this week.

Technically:

EURUSD tested 1.17700 EMA 50 in the daily chart and ended the week at 1.17420. This is the Fibonacci 23.6 % retracement of the latest decline started in April. We can easily say that the medium term trend is bearish and the pair will be under selling pressure as long as it holds below 1.18500.

In the H4 chart timeframe, the price is above EMA 50,100 and 200. And we see a bullish crossover of EMA 50 and EMA 100 with bullish RSI value.

We see a Bearish Gartley Harmonic Pattern as seen in the below chart. As the price dropped below Fib 78.6 % of AB but did not close below, we can say this is a valid Gartley . The area of entry is between 1.17780 – Fib 1.27 of BC 0.96% – and 1.18400 Fib 1.618 of BC 0.96% . Although 1.17780 is confirmed by the MM +2/8 extremely overshoot, considering the C dropped below the perfect ratios...

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