FA (meh Bincangkan )

[gOdFeLLa]

1. Thursday, July 26th, 2007 (4:00 a.m. New York Time) GERMANY

First, we have German IFO coming out the Euro zone at 4 a.m. NY time. Watch out for some volatility on Euro crosses. I will not be trading that report because it has not been performing very well in the past. I want to continue watching them before start trading them again.

2. Thursday, July 26th, 2007 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA

Next, we have U.S. durable goods coming out at 8:30 a.m. NY time. We will have the headline number and the ex-transportation number. I do not say this very often but in this particular case if you don't know what you're doing, stay out of this report. The price before the report, the trend before the report, and the report itself will matter a lot, and will affect the move. Usually I can predict and tell you in advance what is a high probability trade but in this particular case a current situation will be extremely important. I suggest you staying out of it if you don't know what you're doing.

3. Thursday, July 26th, 2007 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) USA

Then, at 10 a.m. NY time we have U.S. New home sales coming out. It is expected that new home sales will decline to around 890,000 from 915,000 last month. As you know, housing market in the US has been in decline so even if he declines a little bit more than that it's not going to be a surprise. What we are looking for is a surprise, and in my opinion if the number comes out at 950,000 or higher, it would be a very big surprise and the highest reading in the last few months so GBP/USD may possibly go down by 40 pips or more in the first hour of the report. If for some reason the reading reads at around 820,000 or lower, that would be the lowest reading in this decade, and also a pretty big jump from 915,000 last month so I think in that case GBP/USD may possibly gain 40 pips or more in the first hour of the report.

SUMMARY:
* Report: US New Home Sales
* SELL on GBP/USD if the number will be 950K or higher
* BUY on GBP/USD if the number will be 820K or lower
* If the trigger is hit, we may see a move of 40 pips or more in the first hour of the report.

4. Thursday, July 26th, 2007 (6:45 p.m. New York Time) NEW ZEALAND

Then, we have New Zealand trade balance coming out at 6:45 p.m. New York time. It is expected to read around -300 M. In order to trade this report we would have to wait for deviation of around 500 M so reading of -800 million or more negative will be a possible sell on NZD/USD. A reading of +200M or more positive will be a possible buy on NZD/USD. Such deviation on New Zealand trade balance is very rare. It usually happens about once a year so the probability of hitting the trigger will be very small. However, even if it hits the trigger, the export component and import component will be extremely important whether the trade balance is mostly driven by exports or imports. If you don't know what you are doing, just skip this one. Otherwise, you can try the triggers that I provided here, and I think NZD/USD may possibly go up or down by 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report if my trigger is hit.

5. Thursday, July 26th, 2007 (7:30 p.m. New York Time) JAPAN

Then at 7:30 p.m. New York time we have Japan CPI coming out. We will have two main numbers which is going to be national CPI excluding food, and Tokyo CPI excluding food. Both are expected to read at -0.1%. On this particular report I do not suggest trading the spike because there are so many different reports coming out at the same time. If one conflicts to another one, it may cause hesitancy in the market and crazy price actions. It is best to just look at all the numbers, see if there is a sufficient deviation in either one of them, and basically place a trade then. In this particular case, a deviation of 0.2 either direction would be significant. On the core Tokyo CPI number if it comes out at 0.1% or higher, I think USD/JPY may possibly go down by 40 pips or more in the first hour of the report. On the other hand, if it comes out at -0.3% or lower (more negative), I think USD/JPY may possibly go up by 60 pips or more in the first hour of the report. You can expect a twice bigger move on GBP/JPY. Just watch out for big conflicts between Tokyo CPI and national CPI but Tokyo x Food is probably the most important indicator, and the deviation of 0.2 will probably cause a decent move on the market

Madi... apesal tak tolong terjemahkan terus... senang sikit aku nak baca. Tak yah nak belek2 kamus...

) ) )

 

[waktong]

1. Monday, August 6th, 2007 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
We have only one thing coming out that I feel is worth watching and possibly trading, and that's going to be UK industrial production. It is expected to come out at 0.1% versus 0.6%. Because last reading was really high, 0.6%, economists are expecting that this month the reading will be a little bit lower because it's a month-over-month reading, and high after another high reading is very rare. In my opinion if the reading comes out at 0.4% or higher, GBP/USD may possibly go up by 40 pips or more in the first hour of the report. At the same time, if it comes out at -0.2 or lower, GBP/USD may possibly go down by 40 pips or more in the first hour of the report. I have to warn you that lately the manufacturing indicators out of UK haven't been really absorbed by the market too well. It seems that the market shrugged them off a lot more than it used to be. Last months it was a very tough to trade as we saw an initial spike about 18 pips, and the price went opposite direction. I still think that the industrial production could be a good trade, especially if we're going to go along with the market sentiment. Use a lot of discretion if you're trading it on your own. Don't try to go against the general market sentiment or trend because we may only a quick spike, and it may be a very difficult to make any money on this.

SUMMARY:
* Report: UK Industrial Production
* BUY on GBP/USD if the number will be 0.4% or higher
* SELL on GBP/USD if the number will be -0.2% or lower
* If the trigger is hit, we may see a move of 40 pips or more in the first hour of the report.
* Be careful with this indicator, read details.

 

[waktong]

1. Tuesday, August 7th, 2007 (2:15 p.m. New York Time) USA
At 2:15 p.m. New York time we have interest rates statement coming out of the United States. It is expected to read 5.25%. It's highly unlikely that the US government will do anything with the rate; however, the thing that everybody is waiting for is to find out whether the Fed will change their tone. Basically, last month at the FOMC meeting we saw Fed talking in a hawkish tone that the inflation is the most important thing, and this month people are waiting to see whether they are going to drop hawkish tone and say that the economy is being equalized by the subprime mortgage problem. If it happens like that, and if they drop their hawkish tone, GBP/USD may possibly go up by 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report. If their hawkish tone stays, and they will talk about inflation being a problem, I think U.S. dollar will actually gain, and GBP/USD may possibly go down. However, this is priced in, and it will largely depend on where the price is before the report. Skip this one if you don't know what your doing.


2. Tuesday, August 7th, 2007 (7:30 p.m. New York Time) AUSTRALIA
Next, at 7:30 p.m. New York time, we have Australian interest rates statement. It is largely priced in and expected that Australia will raise interest rates from 6.25% to 6.50%. Similar to what we had in New Zealand a couple of weeks ago, what is extremely important here is the speech after the interest rates statement. If, for example, Australia hikes the interest rate to 6 1/2 percent, we may see a temporary spike of 15 to 20 pips on AUD/USD; however, if Bank of Australia mentions anything that it could possibly be one of the last hikes, and they don't see any reason to hike again, then AUD/USD may go down by 50 pips, similar to what happened to New Zealand last time. At the same time, if the Australia keeps the rates unchanged, most likely there will be no comments accommodating that, and AUD/USD may possibly go down by 40 pips or more in the first hour of the report because the hike is largely priced in.

 

[waktong]

1. Wednesday, August 8th, 2007 (5:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
First of all, we have Bank of England inflation report at 5:30 a.m. New York time. If you are new, definitely stay out of that one. There's been a lot of crazy things happening: there was a flood in the United Kingdom, food prices were going up and down like crazy. It is very uncertain where the inflation is in the United Kingdom. The market will anticipate that report, and there will probably be a lot of volatility around it. I cannot tell you what to do because you have to play by ear when the speech is released. Generally speaking, if the inflation is high, then it would be a possible buy on GBP/USD; if inflation is slowing, then it would be a possible sell on GBP/USD. Once again, if you don't know what you are doing, stay away from this report.

 

[waktong]

KEMELUT ekonomi di Amerika Syarikat (AS), berikutan krisis subprima, ditambah dengan kemerosotan nilai dolar AS, telah memaksa negara kuasa besar itu menurunkan kadar faedah, meniru langkah yang pernah diambil oleh Malaysia ketika menghadapi krisis ekonomi yang disebabkan oleh serangan mata wang pada 1997-1998.

Pada Rabu lalu, AS menurunkan kadar faedahnya sebanyak 25 mata asas kepada 4.5 peratus berbanding 4.75 peratus sebelumnya.

Ini merupakan kali kedua AS menurunkan kadar faedahnya sejak Jun lalu, bagi membendung krisis subprima, di samping untuk merangsang semula ekonominya.

Pada tahun ini sahaja, kadar faedah AS telah diturunkan sebanyak 75 mata asas daripada paras 5.25 peratus sebelumnya.

Ironinya, negara ‘Polis Dunia’ itu pernah mengecam Malaysia kerana melaksanakan langkah menurunkan kadar faedahnya bagi membendung krisis ekonomi akibat serangan mata wang pada 1997-1998, tetapi akhirnya terpaksa mencontohi Malaysia kerana akur bahawa langkah yang pernah diambil oleh Malaysia dahulu itu didapati sangat berkesan.

Pada waktu itu, pentadbiran AS di bawah Bill Clinton cenderung mempengaruhi negara-negara Asia termasuk Malaysia yang menghadapi krisis ekonomi akibat serangan penyangak mata wang supaya mengambil pendekatan yang digariskan oleh Tabung Kewangan Antarabangsa (IMF).

Pada tahun 1998, IMF yang didalangi oleh AS turut mengesa Malaysia supaya menurunkan nilai mata wang dan menaikkan kadar faedah untuk menangani krisis kewangan ketika itu.

Pada ketika itu, banyak syarikat Malaysia menanggung kerugian dan bank-bank tempatan dibebani hutang tidak berbayar (NPL).

Malaysia merupakan satu-satunya negara Asia yang menolak bantuan IMF dan berjaya menangani kejatuhan mendadak pasaran saham dan nilai mata wangnya sebanyak 90 peratus dan 45 peratus, manakala negara-negara Asia yang lain termasuk Korea Selatan, Indonesia dan Thailand menerima bantuan pinjaman daripada IMF lebih AS$100 bilion untuk membangunkan semula ekonomi mereka.

Selain itu, krisis tersebut juga telah menyebabkan harga import melambung naik dan eksport merudum akibat kejatuhan ringgit daripada paras RM2.80 berbanding dolar AS kepada lebih RM4.30 berbanding dolar AS pada waktu itu.

Malaysia berjaya menangani krisis itu dengan cara tersendiri termasuk melaksanakan dasar tambatan ringgit bagi membendung kejatuhan nilai mata wang tempatan.

Malaysia juga mengambil risiko menurunkan kadar faedah kepada tujuh peratus dan ternyata pendekatan itu berjaya merancakkan semula ekonominya.

Operasi syarikat perbankan tempatan secara tiba-tiba rancak kembali dan pasaran saham mulai pulih.

Malaysia juga melaksanakan langkah menyelamat syarikat-syarikat strategik negara yang tenat dan menanggung NPL yang besar akibat krisis tersebut, dengan menubuhkan Pengurusan Danaharta Nasional Bhd., langkah yang dikecam hebat oleh banyak pihak.

Langkah berani Malaysia itu akhirnya berjaya menyelamatkan ekonomi negara dan mendapat pujian daripada banyak negara termasuk daripada IMF sendiri kemudiannya.

Kini, AS melaksanakan langkah serupa yang diambil oleh Malaysia, selain menurunkan kadar faedah, AS juga melaksanakan pendekatan menyelamat syarikat-syarikat tempatan yang tenat terutama syarikat kewangannya, termasuk Citigroup, bank ketiga terbesar di AS yang kini menanggung kerugian antara AS$8 dan AS$11 bilion akibat krisis subprima.

Pada minggu lalu, akhbar Wall Street Journal melaporkan bahawa Perbendaharaan AS telah mengumumkan satu skim untuk menyelamatkan bank-bank AS daripada kerugian teruk dalam sekuriti disokong gadai janji (mortgage-back securities atau MBS) subprima.

Skim ‘Master-Liquidity Enhancement Conduit (M-LEC)’ itu bakal diterajui oleh tiga gergasi perbankannya iaitu Bank of America Corp., J. P. Morgan Chase dan Citigroup yang merancang untuk menubuhkan dana kecemasan sehingga AS$100 bilion bagi membeli aset-aset tidak berbayar hutang jangka pendek.

Bank-bank AS kini memegang ratusan bilion dolar MBS yang sudah tidak laku dijual dan skim tersebut akan memberi peluang kepada bank-bank itu melambakkan kertas-kertas kewangan yang hampir tidak bernilai.

Teguran AS terhadap ketelusan syarikat-syarikat Asia termasuk Malaysia kini turut berlaku di negara itu berdasarkan skandal Enron lalu, bank-bank AS bukan sahaja tamak, malah tidak telus dalam menyediakan maklumat berhubung kesan krisis subprima.

Kini AS yang cuba mendominasi ekonomi dunia dikecam kerana keadaan ekonominya yang tenat sekarang telah menyebabkan negara-negara yang berdagang dengannya turut terjejas, selain menyebabkan keadaan tidak menentu di pasaran komoditi, mata wang dan ekuiti global.

Nampaknya smua pair kene main buy je la lepas ni,mmg teruk usd sekarang ni

Dulu kita kene cam ni,heh skang kena batang hidung dia org balik

 

[anne_81]

Nampaknya smua pair kene main buy je la lepas ni,mmg teruk usd sekarang ni

Dulu kita kene cam ni,heh skang kena batang hidung dia org balik

Ada kawan br balik dr Alaska..(salah satu negeri kat US)..
Nak bayar smoething pada org Inuit (kaum aborigin kat Alaska),..
The Inuit said.."No dollars, only euros"...

Rakyat dia sendiri dh takmo pakai dollar..

Cerita terbaru supermodel Gisele Bunchen (awek Leonardo Dicaprio), takmo terima bayaran dalam dollar..hehe..

 

[rezekiforex]

Apa akan jadi pada usd nanti.. apa akan jadi pada rabu ni.. adakah usd nak selamat kan duit diorg ke tak.. nak cut ke tak.. hehehe.. bagi aku.. mesti le dia nak selamatkan duit and akan cut interest rate diorg.. just my 2 cent

 

[matlan]

Nampaknya smua pair kene main buy je la lepas ni,mmg teruk usd sekarang ni

Dulu kita kene cam ni,heh skang kena batang hidung dia org balik

X kan nk BUY sume??????????? Kena tgk jugak USD tu samada Base Currency ataupun Qoute Currency... x gitu ke....~X( ~X( ~X(

 

[sabira04]

macam-macam
tengah belajar nii

 

[za_xc03]

BEST la threat ni klu berterusan mcm ni leh dapat lima bintang ni