FA (meh Bincangkan )

[pokcak]

post 'panjang' ke tu bro

a'ah aku panjangkan. hehe

 

[arecent]

ish..aku FA mseti kantoi..dok tepi ja la...khkeh

 

[pokcak]

haiitttt.. apa macam? walaupun japan cuti ari ni, aku sempat sell jpy on beberapa pair pagi tadi. alhamdulillah.. dah close. tak sempat nak peram. aku tengok FA minggu lepas (jumaat), pastu open. surirumah pun cuti trade gak arini kot.

 

[pokcak]

Euro May Advance to $1.40 After Break Above $1.37, Goldman Says



July 17 -- The euro may advance to a record $1.40 after breaking above so-called resistance at $1.3700 last week, said Kevin Edgeley, a technical analyst at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., citing charts that predict price movements.

``After short-term consolidation ahead of the major resistance at $1.37, the market broke and extended above last week, setting up a move to the $1.40 area,'' London-based Edgeley wrote in a research note yesterday. Resistance is a level where sell orders may be clustered.

The $1.3700 resistance represents a December 2004 high of $1.3666, an April 27 high of $1.3681 and a July 5 high of $1.3659. The euro rose through $1.37 on July 10.

Europe's single currency traded at $1.3774 at 10:25 a.m. in Tokyo from $1.3772 late in New York yesterday. It reached an all- time high of $1.3814 on July 13.

``Daily, weekly and monthly stochastic indicators are all pointing higher to give longer-term support,'' Edgeley said.

Stochastic charts measure the price of a security relative to its highs and lows during a particular period.

In technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns and prices to forecast changes in a security, commodity, currency or index.


kalau rujuk kat mizuho pun, diorng masih predict e/u akan naik lagi. wallahualam. seme ni bergantung juga kepada data2 lain nnti.

 

[pokcak]

It now expects it to reach $2.05, Chertkow said.


nampak mcm ke arah tu dah.

 

[pokcak]

macam FA yang aku post pagi tadi, ni ayat dia:

Investors may be worried the euro’s strength is hurting exports, thereby slowing expansion,” said Tsutomu Soma, a bond and currency dealer at Okasan Securities Co. in Tokyo. “The report may weigh on the euro,” which may decline to $1.3750 and 167.70 yen today, he said.

dan e/u mmg turun sampai 1.3756 tadi. dan e/j turun ke 167.71 tadi

 

[TamingSari]

Tuesday, July 17th, 2007 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
We are starting the day with UK CPI at 4:30 a.m. NY time. It is expected to come out at around 2.3% versus 2.5% previous reading. In my opinion, if the reading comes out at 2.2%, or lower, it would be that the inflation is slowing, and it would probably give less chance of UK raise the interest rates again so we may see GBP/USD going down by 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report. On the other hand, it the inflation still reads 2.5% as it was last month, it would mean that inflation is not really slowing as it is still going strong, and there will be a good reason for the UK to hike the rate to 6%. Therefore, I think that would be bullish for the GBP/USD, and it may possibly gain 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report.

SUMMARY:
* Report: UK CPI
* Sell on GBP/USD if the number will be 2.2% or lower
* Buy on GBP/USD if the number will be 2.5% or higher
* If the trigger is hit, expect 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report.

Then at 5 a.m. NY time we have German ZEW report coming out. I am not going to trade that report because the market doesn't care much about it but you may see some volatility on EUR/USD.

Then we have series of U.S. reports coming out. At 8:30 a.m. NY time we have US PPI coming out. Then, at 9 a.m. we have treasury international capital (TIC). Next, at 9:15 a.m. we have industrial production. None of those reports are important in my opinion, at least not at this stage of the economy. Lately the market has not been reacting to them, and I don't want to take unnecessary risk trading them. So personally I will skip all three of those reports as those are just one of the worst reports out of the U.S.

 

[arecent]

pergh...FA punya penangan..giloss

 

[pokcak]

It now expects it to reach $2.05, Chertkow said.

Akhirnyaaaa....

 

[waktong]

1. Thursday, July 26th, 2007 (4:00 a.m. New York Time) GERMANY

First, we have German IFO coming out the Euro zone at 4 a.m. NY time. Watch out for some volatility on Euro crosses. I will not be trading that report because it has not been performing very well in the past. I want to continue watching them before start trading them again.

2. Thursday, July 26th, 2007 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA

Next, we have U.S. durable goods coming out at 8:30 a.m. NY time. We will have the headline number and the ex-transportation number. I do not say this very often but in this particular case if you don't know what you're doing, stay out of this report. The price before the report, the trend before the report, and the report itself will matter a lot, and will affect the move. Usually I can predict and tell you in advance what is a high probability trade but in this particular case a current situation will be extremely important. I suggest you staying out of it if you don't know what you're doing.

3. Thursday, July 26th, 2007 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) USA

Then, at 10 a.m. NY time we have U.S. New home sales coming out. It is expected that new home sales will decline to around 890,000 from 915,000 last month. As you know, housing market in the US has been in decline so even if he declines a little bit more than that it's not going to be a surprise. What we are looking for is a surprise, and in my opinion if the number comes out at 950,000 or higher, it would be a very big surprise and the highest reading in the last few months so GBP/USD may possibly go down by 40 pips or more in the first hour of the report. If for some reason the reading reads at around 820,000 or lower, that would be the lowest reading in this decade, and also a pretty big jump from 915,000 last month so I think in that case GBP/USD may possibly gain 40 pips or more in the first hour of the report.

SUMMARY:
* Report: US New Home Sales
* SELL on GBP/USD if the number will be 950K or higher
* BUY on GBP/USD if the number will be 820K or lower
* If the trigger is hit, we may see a move of 40 pips or more in the first hour of the report.

4. Thursday, July 26th, 2007 (6:45 p.m. New York Time) NEW ZEALAND

Then, we have New Zealand trade balance coming out at 6:45 p.m. New York time. It is expected to read around -300 M. In order to trade this report we would have to wait for deviation of around 500 M so reading of -800 million or more negative will be a possible sell on NZD/USD. A reading of +200M or more positive will be a possible buy on NZD/USD. Such deviation on New Zealand trade balance is very rare. It usually happens about once a year so the probability of hitting the trigger will be very small. However, even if it hits the trigger, the export component and import component will be extremely important whether the trade balance is mostly driven by exports or imports. If you don't know what you are doing, just skip this one. Otherwise, you can try the triggers that I provided here, and I think NZD/USD may possibly go up or down by 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report if my trigger is hit.

5. Thursday, July 26th, 2007 (7:30 p.m. New York Time) JAPAN

Then at 7:30 p.m. New York time we have Japan CPI coming out. We will have two main numbers which is going to be national CPI excluding food, and Tokyo CPI excluding food. Both are expected to read at -0.1%. On this particular report I do not suggest trading the spike because there are so many different reports coming out at the same time. If one conflicts to another one, it may cause hesitancy in the market and crazy price actions. It is best to just look at all the numbers, see if there is a sufficient deviation in either one of them, and basically place a trade then. In this particular case, a deviation of 0.2 either direction would be significant. On the core Tokyo CPI number if it comes out at 0.1% or higher, I think USD/JPY may possibly go down by 40 pips or more in the first hour of the report. On the other hand, if it comes out at -0.3% or lower (more negative), I think USD/JPY may possibly go up by 60 pips or more in the first hour of the report. You can expect a twice bigger move on GBP/JPY. Just watch out for big conflicts between Tokyo CPI and national CPI but Tokyo x Food is probably the most important indicator, and the deviation of 0.2 will probably cause a decent move on the market