Daily Analysis Forex Mix

[radex78]

Ahead of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes Japanese Yen limits strengthening

Yesterday the USDJPY pair drew a bullish candle with a long body small shadow on the top of the candle. Price formed a high of 155,976, a low of 154,434, closing at 155,492. The Japanese Yen strengthened and brought the USDJPY pair down to a low of 153,713 on previous days.

The Japanese yen weakened due to concerns that Trump's tariff policy had benefited the US dollar. Trump said he would soon impose tariffs on pharmaceutical, computer chip and metal manufacturers in the near future. This policy has revived fears of a trade war that could affect global growth. Trump's tariff policy is also seen to spur inflationary pressures in the US and trigger US Treasury yields and help the US dollar recover from its lowest level in more than a month. Trump previously ordered his administration to impose emergency tariffs of 25% on Colombian imports, although the tariffs were postponed after Colombia agreed to accept all illegal migrants returned from the US without restrictions.

The dollar index (DXY) is now 107.9195 after tumbling to a low of 106.969. The dollar index is used to measure the strengthening of the US dollar against six major currencies and this can provide an idea of the USD's position in the financial market.

Today we are waiting for the Japanese economic schedule in the Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes. However, rumors circulating seem to suggest that the different policy expectations of the BoJ and the Fed could limit JPY losses and limit USD. The BOJ will continue to raise policy rates and adjust the level of monetary accommodation if the outlook presented at its January meeting materializes. On the other hand, the Fed is expected to leave interest rates unchanged at the FOMC meeting tomorrow.

USDJPY D1

The USDJPY pair on the daily timeframe is now moving between the middle band and the lower band. Bollinger bands with a slight descending channel drawing slightly expanding spaces indicate slightly rising volatility.

MA 50 near the lower band drawing a slight upward channel indicates an uptrend market. There is a golden cross signal in this timeframe. MA 200 below the lower band drawing a flat channel indicates a sideways market.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 71 and VB Low shows a value of 44. The difference of 27 reflects the volatility value in the daily timeframe.

Market Base Line shows a value of 58 with a flat channel, meaning the weight of bullish is greater than bearish.

The RSI Price Line shows a value of 47 with a flat channel indicating a sideways market.

Trade Signal Line points to a value of 47 with a flat channel indicating a sideways market.

USDJPY H4

USDJPY on the H4 timeframe is now moving near the middle band line. Bollinger bands draw a flat channel with wide band spacing indicating a sideways market with somewhat high volatility.

MA 50 near the middle band line drawing a flat channel indicates a sideways market. There is a death cross signal on the H4 timeframe. MA 200 draws an ascending channel above the middle band line indicating an uptrend market.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 58 and VB Low shows a value of 37. The difference of 21 reflects the volatility value in the H4 timeframe.

Market Base Line shows a value of 48 with a flat channel, meaning the weight of bearish is greater than bullish.

 

[radex78]

EUR/USD hovers near MA 50 as the Fed keeps interest rates unchanged

Yesterday the EURUSD pair drew a bearish candlestick with a slightly long wick at the bottom of the candle. Price formed a high of 1.04437, a low of 1.03823, a close of 1.04208.

The Fed kept interest rates unchanged at 4.50% as widely anticipated. The dollar index (DXY) experienced a slightly moderate increase from a low of 107.749 to a high of 108.295 but closed at 107.945.

Speculation about Trump Tariffs is still in the spotlight in financial markets, Although the delay in enacting Eurozone tariffs provides some short-term relief for the Euro, ongoing uncertainty continues to cloud the currency's outlook.

The Fed appears to be starting to have doubts about the progress of the inflation target towards 2%, instead officials described high inflation pressures as signaling caution to see more evidence of cooling inflation.

On the other hand, the ECB is expected to cut interest rates further at today's meeting while remaining cautious to avoid exceeding the 2% inflation target or worsening the economic slowdown in the Eurozone. Germany's economic problems and broader political uncertainty remain significant headwinds.

Trump's protectionist policies are expected to shift the balance and cast a shadow over the Euro's outlook, if such tariffs push US inflation higher could potentially hawk the Fed's stance on interest rates.

Today investors will focus on the release of economic data in the Euro area Main Refinancing Rate which is expected to fall from 3.15% to 2.90%. Meanwhile, the US will release GDP and Unemployment Claims data.

EURUSD D1

The EURUSD pair on the daily timeframe is now floating between the upper and middle band lines. Bollinger bands draw a flat channel with expanding band spacing indicating rising volatility.

The 50 MA near the price draws a descending channel indicating a market downtrend. There is a death cross signal in this timeframe. The 200 MA is far above the upper band drawing a flat channel indicating a sideways market.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 56 and VB Low shows a value of 28. The difference of 28 reflects the volatility value in the daily timeframe.

Market Base Line points to a value of 42 with an upward channel, meaning the weight of bearish is greater than bullish.

The RSI Price Line shows a value of 52 with a flat channel crossing the TSL from the upper side indicating a sideways market.

Trade Signal Line points to a value of 55 with a flat channel indicating a sideways market.

EURUSD H4

EURUSD on the H4 timeframe is now hovering between the middle and lower bands. Bollinger bands draw a descending channel with wide band spacing indicating high market volatility.

The 50 MA near the price draws an upward channel indicating a market uptrend. There is a golden cross signal in this timeframe. The 200 MA near the lower band draws a flat channel indicating a sideways market.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 68 and VB Low shows a value of 42. The difference of 26 reflects the volatility value in the H4 timeframe.

Market Base Line points to a value of 55 with a descending channel, meaning the weight of bullish is greater than bearish.

The RSI Price Line points to a value of 47 with an upward channel crossing the TSL from the lower side indicating an uptrend market.

Trade Signal Line points to the value 45 with an ascending channel indicating a weak uptrend.

 

[radex78]

USD/CAD extends gains on Trump tariffs spotlight.

Yesterday the USDCAD pair drew a bullish candle with a long shadow on the top candle indicating a strong up accompanied by strong selling pressure. Price formed a high of 1.45947, a low of 1.43925, and a close of 1.44756 on FXOpen. Rising prices have made the Bollinger bands expand, indicating increased high volatility.

President Trump has reiterated his intention to impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico. He said the announcement would be made for various reasons, including the fentanyl issue, which caused shares of US automakers to decline. He also stated that the first tariffs for Canada and Mexico would take effect this Saturday. He hinted at a possible decision on oil and touched on the country's wood supply.

Trump's tariffs are considered to have a significant impact on trade between the US, Canada and Mexico.

US GDP yesterday was lower than previously in the fourth quarter, actual data showed 2.3% lower than expectations of 2.90% from the previous revision of 3.1%. Meanwhile, US Unemployment Claims fell 207k lower than expectations of 224k and the previous revision of 223k.

Today Canada will release GDP which is predicted to fall -0.1% from the previous 0.3%. Investors will also focus on US Core PCE Price Index data, which is the Fed's most preferred inflation indicator. It is estimated that PCE will rise 0.2% from the previous 0.1%. The US will also release Employment Cost Index data which is expected to rise 0.9% from the previous 0.8%.

USDCAD D1

The USDCADH price on the daily timeframe is now moving near the upper band line. Bollinger bands draw a flat channel with expanding band spacing, indicating sideways movement with increasing volatility.

MA 50 near the lower band drawing an ascending channel indicates bullish sentiment. The 200 MA is well below the lower band drawing an ascending channel indicating bullish sentiment.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 76 and VB Low shows a value of 48, the difference of 28 reflects the volatility value in the daily timeframe.

Market Base Line points to a value of 62 with an upward channel, meaning the weight of bullish is greater than bearish.

The RSI Price Line shows a value of 62 with an upward channel crossing the TSL from the lower side indicating an uptrend market.

Trade Signal Line points to a value of 56 with an upward channel indicating an uptrend market.

USDCAD H4

USDCAD in the H4 timeframe is above the upper band line. Bollinger bands draw an ascending channel with expanding band spacing indicating bullish sentiment with increasing high volatility.

MA 50 below the middle band line draws a flat channel indicating a sideways market. The 200 MA near the lower band draws an ascending channel indicating bullish sentiment.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 63 and VB Low shows a value of 42. The difference of 21 reflects the volatility value in the H4 timeframe.

Market Base Line points to a value of 53 with an upward channel, meaning the weight of bullish is greater than bearish.

The RSI Price Line shows a value of 66 with an upward channel crossing the TSL from the lower side indicating an uptrend market.

Trade Signal Line points to a value of 57 with an upward channel indicating an uptrend market.

 

[radex78]

Trump's tariffs overshadow the market, USD strengthens CNH weakens

The USDCNH pair at weekend trading drew a bullish candle with a long body and shadows on the top and bottom of the candle. Price formed a high of 7.3304 and a low of 7.2750 closing at 7.3204 on the FXOpen platform. The bullish candle extended previous gains after the pair hit a low of 7.2342 on January 24.

It seems that Trump's tariffs are still in the spotlight in financial markets. President Donald Trump's protectionist policies have worried international trade. Canada and Mexico are subject to a 25% tariff, which has caused the CAD and MXN currencies to weaken against the USD. On the other hand, China is subject to tariffs of 10%, although this is much lower than when the Trump campaign threatened to impose tariffs of up to 60%. However, Trump's policies have weakened CNH. Trump's tariffs are expected to take effect on Tuesday, February 4, although economists generally oppose the policy on the grounds that the tariffs could result in higher prices for domestic consumers.

The Fed at its final meeting in January finally kept interest rates unchanged as expected, the Fed maintained interest rates at 4.50%. Meanwhile, China's interest rate is currently 3.10% from the previous 3.35% and has experienced a downward trend in 2024. The dollar index (DXY) has risen since January 27 from a low level of 106.969 to now at 108.921. The dollar index is used to track the US dollar against six major currencies. According to the CME group's Fedwatch tool, the Fed is expected to have unchanged interest rates at its March meeting with a probability of up to 82.5%.

Today's Chinese Bank Holiday in observance of the Spring Festival may slightly influence Asian markets. On the other hand, investors will focus on US economic data which will be released today, the US PMI is predicted not to change much compared to the previous revision.

USDCNH D1

The USDCNH pair gapped at Monday's opening market session, and the open price jumped far above Friday's closing reflecting that CNH weakened on Saturday and Sunday and was just recorded in the data feed center.

The price is now moving between the upper and middle band lines. Bollinger bands draw a flat channel with expanding bands indicating high volatility in a flat trend.

MA 50 below the middle band draws an upward channel, indicating an uptrend market. MA 200 below the lower band draws a flat channel, indicating a sideways market. On the daily timeframe, there is a golden cross signal.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 74 and VB Low shows a value of 38. The difference of 36 reflects the volatility value in the daily timeframe.

Market Base Line shows a value of 56 with a flat channel, meaning the weight of bullish is greater than bearish.

RSI Price Line is pointing at a value of 59 with an ascending channel crossing the TSL from the lower side indicating an uptrend.

Trade Signal Line points to a value of 46 with an upward channel indicating an uptrend market.

USDCNH H4

USDCNH price in the H4 timeframe moves above the upper band line. The gap that occurred was very wide at the market opening earlier this week. Expanding Bollinger bands reflect increased volatility.

MA 50 near the middle band drawing an ascending channel indicates an uptrend market. The 200 MA near the upper band draws a flat channel indicating a sideways market.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 67 and VB Low shows a value of 34. The difference of 33 reflects the volatility value in the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line points to a value of 50 with an upward channel, meaning the price is in the neutral zone with potential bullish sentiment.

The RSI Price Line shows a value of 73 with an upward channel crossing the TSL from the lower side, indicating that the uptrend market has entered the overbought zone.

Trade Signal Line points to a value of 64 with an upward channel indicating an uptrend market.

 

[radex78]

The safe-haven asset gold surged amid concerns about Trump's tariffs

Gold fell as low as $2772 due to the strengthening of the USD after Trump imposed import tariffs on Canada and Mexico by 25% and China by 10%. Yesterday the price formed a bullish candle with a long body and shadows on the top and bottom of the candle. Gold price formed a high of $2830 and a low of $2772 closing at $2814.

Trump announced 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada as well as 10% duties on Chinese imports on Saturday while anticipating that he would also target the European Union (EU) and Britain, fueling concerns about a trade war that would disrupt global supply chains. Affected country authorities responded with varying details.

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau reluctantly announced that Ottawa would retaliate with 25 percent tariffs on $155 billion worth of US imports. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum on Saturday ordered retaliatory tariffs in response to tariffs on all goods originating from Mexico. The Chinese government has criticized the tariffs and Trump's demand that Beijing stop the flow of fentanyl, a deadly opioid, to the US, while leaving the door open for talks with the US that could avoid a deeper conflict.

Yesterday the US released PMI economic data showing actual data which was higher than forecast and had a good impact on the USD, today traders will pay attention to Job data which is predicted to be lower than the previous revision.

XAUUSD D1

The price of gold on the daily timeframe is now moving above the upper band line. Bollinger bands draw an ascending channel with wide band spacing indicating bullish sentiment with high volatility.

MA 50 below the middle band line drawing an ascending channel indicates bullish sentiment. The 200 MA is well below the lower band drawing an ascending channel indicating bullish sentiment.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 71 and VB Low shows a value of 40. The difference of 31 reflects the volatility value in the daily timeframe.

Market Base Line points to a value of 56 with an upward channel, meaning the weight of bullish is greater than bearish.

The RSI Price Line points to a value of 70 with an upward channel crossing the TSL from the lower side indicating an uptrend market entering the overbought zone.

Trade Signal Line points to a value of 67 with an upward channel indicating an uptrend market.

XAUUSD H4

The price of gold in the H4 timeframe is now below the upper band line. Bollinger bands draw an ascending channel with wide band spacing indicating bullish sentiment with high volatility.

The 50 MA below the middle band draws an ascending channel indicating bullish sentiment. The 200 MA is well below the lower band drawing an ascending channel indicating long-term bullish sentiment.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 73 and VB Low shows a value of 38. The difference of 35 reflects the volatility value in the H4 timeframe.

Market Base Line shows a value of 58 with a flat channel, meaning the weight of bullish is greater than bearish.

The RSI Price Line shows a value of 63 with a downward channel indicating a market downtrend.

Trade Signal Line points to a value of 60 with a downward channel indicating a market downtrend.

 

[radex78]

NZD/USD fluctuates amid US China trade war concerns

Yesterday the NZDUSD currency pair drew a bullish candle with a rather long wick at the bottom of the candle. NZDUSD price movements fluctuate between the upper and lower band lines with moderate volatility. Price formed a high 0.56547 low 0.55817 closing 0.56489 on FXOpen platform crosses middle band from downside.

During the European session on Tuesday trading the NZDUSD pair faced volatility as risk-off sentiment increased by US-China trade tensions. China countered new US tariffs of 10% that went into effect on Tuesday by imposing its own tariffs: a 15% tax on US imports of coal and liquefied natural gas (LNG), along with an additional 10% on crude oil, agricultural equipment and some car.

China's Ministry of Commerce will also control exports of tungsten, tellurium, ruthenium, molybdenum and related products under the pretext of protecting national security interests.

On the other hand, Chinese exporters are trying to avoid US tariffs by moving production by considering relocating to the Middle East and other regions.

Yesterday's US JOLTS Job data was released with figures much lower than expected, weighing on the US dollar somewhat. Actual data shows 7.60M smaller than expected 8.01M from the previous revision of 8.16M.

Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is expected to reduce interest rates by 50 bp to 3.75% this month and a potential reduction in the benchmark interest rate of 3.0% within a year.

Canada's Employment Change in this quarter showed data of -0.1% from the expected -0.2% and previous revision of -0.6%. Meanwhile, the Unemployment Rate was 5.1% as estimated at 5.1% from the previous revision of 4.8%.

The market is expected to continue fluctuating due to Trump's policies, which have a widespread impact on global markets.

NZDUSD D1

The NZDUSD currency pair on the daily timeframe is now moving near the middle band line. Bollinger bands draw a flat channel with moderate band spacing indicating a sideways market with moderate volatility.

MA 50 near the upper band drawing a descending channel indicates bearish sentiment. The 200 MA is well above the upper band drawing a flat channel indicating a flat market in the long term. There is a death cross signal on the daily timeframe.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 55 and VB Low shows a value of 23. The difference of 32 reflects the volatility value in the daily timeframe.

Market Base Line points to a value of 39 with an upward channel, meaning the weight of bearish is greater than bullish.

The RSI Price Line shows a value of 48 with an upward channel crossing the TSL from the lower side indicating an uptrend market.

Trade Signal Line points to a value of 47 with a downward channel indicating a market downtrend.

NZDUSD H4

The NZDUSD pair in the H4 timeframe is above the middle band line. Bollinger bands draw a descending channel with expanding band spacing indicating high volatility is occurring in this pair. There is even a wide gap down seen in this time frame.

MA 50 near the price is drawing a flat channel indicating a sideways market. The 200 MA is slightly below the 50 MA drawing a descending channel indicating bearish sentiment in the long term.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 56 and VB Low shows a value of 33. The difference of 23 reflects the volatility value in the H4 timeframe.

Market Base Line shows a value of 44 with a flat channel, meaning the weight of bearish is greater than bullish.

The RSI Price Line shows a value of 55 with an upward channel crossing the MBL from the lower side indicating an uptrend market.

Trade Signal Line pointing to the value 50 with an upward channel crossing the MBL from the lower side indicates an uptrend market.

 

[radex78]

GBP/USD extends gains amid mixed US data

The GBPUSD currency pair yesterday drew a bullish candle with a rather long shadow at the top candle extending the previous two days' rise. Price formed a high of 1.25499, a low of 1.24633, closing at 1.25051, crossing the MA 50 from the lower side.

US economic data released Wednesday showed mixed data. ADP Non-Farm Employment Change showed actual data of 183k against expected 148k and previous revision of 176k. On the other hand, the ISM Services PMI showed actual data of 52.9 from the expected 54.2 and the previous revision of 54.1.

On Monday, the GBPUSD pair experienced a wide gap down like other USD pairs. However, the price then jumped consecutively in three days by drawing bullish candles. Volatility in financial markets was triggered by Trump's tariff policy which affected global markets. But concerns have eased somewhat as Canada and Mexico reached an agreement with Washington. Investors now trust Trump's tariff policy as a tool for negotiations with allies and enemies.

Today's bank holiday in New Zealand may slightly reduce the volume of financial market transactions. New Zealand banks will be closed in observance of Waitangi Day.

The main focus of the GBPUSD pair today is the Bank of England (BoE) monetary policy report and the Official Bank Rate which is expected to fall from the previous 4.75% to 4.50%.

The dollar index (DXY) experienced consecutive losses for three days by drawing a bearish candle from the original high of 109,881 plunge to 107,296 for three days. Today we are waiting for the release of US Unemployment Claims which is predicted to increase by 214k from the previous revision of 207k. Next, investors will also wait for NFP data on Friday of the first week of February, which is also expected to fall from 256k to 169k.

GBPUSD D1

The GBPUSD currency pair on the daily timeframe is now below the upper band line. Bollinger bands draw a flat channel with slightly expanding band spacing indicating movement in a range with the possibility of increased volatility.

MA 50 below the upper band draws a flat channel indicating a sideways market. Price has crossed the 50 MA from the downside indicating buyer pressure is trying to dominate. The 200 MA above the upper band draws a flat channel indicating a sideways market in the long term.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 57 and VB Low shows a value of 27. The difference of 30 reflects the volatility value in the daily timeframe.

Market Base Line points to a value of 42 with an upward channel, meaning the weight of bearish is greater than bullish.

The RSI Price Line shows a value of 57 with an upward channel crossing the TSL from the lower side indicating an uptrend market.

Trade Signal Line points to a value of 53 with an upward channel indicating an uptrend market.

GBPUSD H4

The GBPUSD currency pair in the H4 timeframe is below the upper band line. Here the Bollinger bands draw a flat channel with wide band spacing indicating a sideways market with high volatility.

The 50 MA is slightly above the middle band line drawing an ascending channel indicating weak bullish sentiment. The 200 MA is slightly below the middle band line drawing a descending channel indicating weak bearish sentiment in the long term. There is a golden cross signal on the daily timeframe.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 66 and VB Low shows a value of 37. The difference of 29 reflects the volatility value in the H4 timeframe

Market Base Line shows the value 51 with a flat channel, meaning the weight of bullish is greater than bearish.

The RSI Price Line shows a value of 60 with a downward channel indicating a market downtrend.

Trade Signal Line points to a value of 60 with a flat channel indicating a sideways market.

 

[radex78]

GBP/JPY plummeted amid UK interest rate cuts

Yesterday GBPJPY price drew a bearish long body candle with almost no shadow, the price extending Wednesday's decline. Price formed a high of 190,814, a low of 166,064, closing at 188,366. GBPJPY also gapped on Monday and had closed on the same day then plunged further.

Yesterday the Bank of England announced a reduction in interest rates from the previous 4.75% to 4.50%, meaning interest rates fell by 25 basis points. In the release of its Monetary Policy Report, the BoE reported that inflation has been approaching its 2% target since the middle of last year, from a peak of above 11% in 2022. However, inflation is on a bumpy path. Inflation is expected to increase this year by 3.7% due to higher energy prices. Inflation is expected to fall back to the 2% target after that.

The Monetary Policy Committee will decide carefully how much and when it can lower interest rates and ensure that inflation remains low and stable in the long term.

On the other hand, Japan has raised interest rates now to 0.50% on January 24 2025 from the previous 0.25%. This may be the reason for the recent strengthening of the JPY currency against other major currencies. The Japanese central bank still seems likely to raise interest rates to 1% as Bank of Japan Governor Naoiki Tamura talked about the central bank's plans to raise interest rates. The yen's strengthening occurred especially after Tamura, who is a member of the BOJ's interest rate-setting council, said that the central bank would likely raise its benchmark interest rate to 1% from 0.5% in the second half of 2025.

Today besides BOE Gov Bailey Speaks, traders will also concerns on US Non-Farm Employment Change (NFP) which is expected to down by 169k from the previous revision of 256k. Meanwhile, the US Unemployment Rate is expected the same as the previous revision of 4.1%.

GBPJPY D1

On the daily timeframe the GBPJPY currency pair is below the lower band line. Price successfully broke out across the lower band from the upper side indicating a strong downtrend. Bollinger bands draw a flat channel with the bands starting to expand indicating rising volatility in a sideways market.

The 50 MA is slightly above the middle band line drawing a slight descending channel indicating weak bearish sentiment. MA 200 near the upper band line draws a flat channel indicating sideways market. There is a death cross signal in this timeframe.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 63 and VB Low shows a value of 33. The difference of 30 reflects the volatility value in the daily timeframe.

Market Base Line points to a value of 47 with a flat channel, meaning the weight of bearish is greater than bullish.

The RSI Price Line points to a value of 32 with a descending channel crossing the TSL from the upper side indicating a downtrend market near the oversold level.

Trade Signal Line points to a value of 41 with a downward channel indicating a market downtrend.

GBPJPY H4

The GBPJPY pair on the H4 timeframe is now on the lower band path. Bollinger bands draw a descending channel with expanding bands indicating a downtrend market with high volatility.

MA 50 above the middle band line drawing a descending channel indicates bearish sentiment. MA 200 near the upper band line draws a flat channel indicating sideways in the long term.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 56 and VB Low shows a value of 27. The difference of 29 reflects the volatility value in the H4 timeframe.

Market Base Line points to a value of 41 with a descending channel, meaning the weight of bearish is greater than bullish.

The RSI Price Line points to a value of 28 with a flat channel indicating a downtrend market has entered the oversold zone.

Trade Signal Line pointing to the value 31 with a descending channel crossing the MBL from the upper side indicates a downtrend market.

 

[radex78]

Will gold extend the rally?

Gold prices on Friday last week again formed a new all time high at $2886 due to mixed US economic data releases. Gold price formed a high of $2886, a low of $2852, closing at $2859.

Nonfarm Payrolls data was lower than consensus, while unemployment fell. The release of NFP data which was lower than forecast showed 143k smaller than expected 159k from the previous data of 307k. On the other hand Average Hourly Earnings 0.5% greater than forecast 0.3% from the previous 0.3% is theoretically good for the currency. And the Unemployment Rate fell by 4.0% which was expected to 4.1% from the previous release of 4.1% good for the currency.

On the other hand, China, the People's Bank of China (PBOC), has expanded its gold reserves for the third month in a row, which has a positive impact on gold as a safe-haven asset amid concerns about economic uncertainty. Gold reserves held by the People's Bank of China increased by 0.16 million troy ounces last month.

Gold also gets support because of Trump's tariff policy which triggered a trade war with related countries such as Canada, Mexico and China. Even Trump will continue his threat to impose tariffs on other countries, and the possibility of unconventional geopolitical intervention supports Gold's role as a safe haven in times of uncertainty. Even Citigroup predicts gold can reach $3000 in three months according to Bloomberg notes.

Other news is that small-scale miners' gold output increased while larger miners experienced a decline, according to Reuters.

The dollar index (DXY) which tracks the US dollar against six major currencies rose on Friday from a low of 107.516 to a high of 108.318 and a current value of 108.285.

The Fed is not expected to cut interest rates in March. According to the CME group's Fedwatch tool the possibility of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged is 91.5% and the possibility of a 25 basis point cut is only 8.5%.

XAUUSD D1

Gold price on the daily timeframe is now moving near the upper band line. Bollinger bands draw an ascending channel with expanding bands indicating an uptrend with high volatility.

The 50 MA above the lower band draws an ascending channel indicating bullish sentiment. The 200 MA below the lower band draws an ascending channel indicating bullish sentiment.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 77 and VB Low shows a value of 44. The difference of 33 reflects the volatility value in the daily timeframe.

Market Base Line points to a value of 60 with an upward channel, meaning the weight of bullish is greater than bearish.

The RSI Price Line points to a value of 75 with an upward channel indicating the uptrend is in the overbought zone.

Trade Signal Line points to a value of 74 with an upward channel indicating an uptrend market.

XAUUSD H4

Gold price in the H4 timeframe is near the upper band line. Bollinger bands draw an ascending channel with deflating band spacing indicating a low volatility market uptrend.

MA 50 below the lower band drawing an ascending channel indicates bullish sentiment. The 200 MA is well below the lower band drawing an ascending channel indicating bullish sentiment.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 75 and VB Low shows a value of 53. The difference of 23 reflects the volatility value in the H4 timeframe.

Market Base Line shows a value of 64 with a flat channel, meaning the weight of bullish is greater than bearish.

The RSI Price Line shows a value of 56 with an upward channel indicating an uptrend market.

Trade Signal Line points to a value of 60 with a flat channel indicating a sideways market.

 

[radex78]

USD/CHF went more to the upside ahead of Fed Chair Powell's testimony

The USD/CHF currency pair on Monday's trading drew a bullish candle extending the previous three consecutive days of gains. Price formed a high of 0.91222, a low of 0.90936, a closing of 0.91131. USDCHF is above the middle band line with the upper band line slightly deflated.

Today what will be in the market spotlight is President Trump Speaks who is holding a press conference about his latest executive order at the White House. New policies from US President Donald Trump could cause turmoil in financial markets and the global political map.

Furthermore, Fed Chair Powell Testifies will also be in the spotlight of investors, in his speech Powell will provide testimony on the Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report before the Senate Banking Committee. Traders watch his public engagement as it is often used to provide subtle hints about future monetary policy.

The US Federal Reserve (The Fed) is forecast to keep interest rates on hold this year after January's US employment data, supporting the USD. According to the CME group's Fedwatch Tool the possibility of the Fed keeping interest rates at 93.5% and only a 6.5% probability of a rate cut.

The Dollar Index (DXY) is still extending yesterday's strengthening drawing a bullish candle with a low of 108,091 to a high of 108,440 crossing EMA 20 from the lower side. The US economy created 143k new jobs in January, missing economists' estimates of 170k jobs. However, the Unemployment Rate fell to 4.0% in January from 4.1% in December.

Trump's policy regarding tariffs is also still in the spotlight, analysts say this policy is inflationary which puts pressure on the Fed to maintain high interest rates. Analysts forecast a rate cut of just 36 basis points this year.

Meanwhile the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is unlikely to return to negative interest rates. The SNB will end its rate cut cycle with a policy rate of 0.0%, compared to the current 0.5%. Meanwhile, global economic uncertainty and ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East may increase safe-haven flows, benefiting the CHF.

USDCHF D1

The USDCHF pair on the daily timeframe is now between the middle and upper band lines. Bollinger bands draw a flat channel with slightly deflated bands indicating a sideways market with low volatility.

MA 50 near the lower band drawing an ascending channel indicates bullish sentiment. The 200 MA is far below the lower band drawing a flat channel indicating a sideways market. There is a golden cross signal on the daily timeframe.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 71 and VB Low shows a value of 46. The difference of 25 reflects the volatility value in the daily timeframe.

Market Base Line shows a value of 58 with a flat channel, meaning the weight of bullish is greater than bearish.

The RSI Price Line shows a value of 56 with an upward channel crossing the TSL from the lower side indicating an uptrend market.

Trade Signal Line points to a value of 52 with a flat channel indicating sideways market..

USDCHF H4

USDCHF in the H4 timeframe is between the middle band and upper band line. Bollinger bands draw an ascending channel with wide band spacing indicating an uptrend with high volatility.

The 50 MA near the middle band draws an ascending channel indicating bullish sentiment. The 200 MA near the middle band draws an ascending channel indicating bullish sentiment.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 65 and VB Low shows a value of 33. The difference of 32 reflects the volatility value in the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line points to a value of 60 with an upward channel indicating a market uptrend.

Trade Signal Line points to a value of 60 with a flat channel indicating a sideways market.