High-Impact Economic Calendar – October 19, 2025
Sunday’s late-session release featured
only one high-impact event — New Zealand’s quarterly inflation data. As a key gauge of price pressures, the report provided critical insight into domestic demand, cost dynamics, and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) policy outlook heading into the final quarter of 2025.
Preparing ahead of
high-impact news releases is essential, as these events often trigger sharp volatility, widen spreads, and shift market direction within seconds. Staying informed allows you to view forecasts in advance and prepare to enter the market accordingly, helping manage risk and avoid unexpected price movements.
Timeline: GMT |
Focused Currency: NZD
21:45 GMT
New Zealand – Inflation Rate Year-on-Year
Forecast: 2.6% | Previous: 2.7%
Currency: NZD
Why Traders Care:
Inflation is the primary indicator guiding RBNZ monetary policy decisions. A stable reading near target suggests controlled price growth, while any deviation can shift expectations for future rate adjustments.
Focus centred on New Zealand’s inflation path, as markets assessed whether stable price levels would keep the RBNZ comfortable holding rates steady or revive expectations of policy changes in the months ahead.
High-Impact Economic Calendar – October 20, 2025
Monday’s session featured
only high-impact releases across major economies, led by China’s GDP, retail, and industrial data, followed by inflation indicators from Germany and Canada, and the U.S. Leading Index. Together, these figures provided a global snapshot of economic growth, price pressures, and early signals for market direction at the start of the week.
Preparing ahead of
high-impact news releases is essential, as these events often trigger sharp volatility, widen spreads, and shift market direction within seconds. Staying informed allows you to view forecasts in advance and prepare to enter the market accordingly, helping manage risk and avoid unexpected price movements.
Timeline: GMT |
Focused Currencies: CNY, EUR, CAD, USD
02:00 GMT
China – GDP Growth Rate Quarter-on-Quarter
Forecast: 0.9% | Previous: 1.1%
Currency: CNY
Why Traders Care:
Quarterly GDP growth offers the most direct measure of China’s economic momentum. A slowdown would underscore weakening industrial output and exports, while resilience supports regional and global risk sentiment.
02:00 GMT
China – GDP Growth Rate Year-on-Year
Forecast: 4.9% | Previous: 5.2%
Currency: CNY
Market lens:
Annual growth reflects broader economic performance. A softer reading reinforces expectations for additional policy support, while stronger data could ease stimulus pressure.
02:00 GMT
China – Industrial Production Year-on-Year
Forecast: 5.1% | Previous: 5.2%
Currency: CNY
Market mover:
Industrial activity remains a cornerstone of China’s economy. Consistent production growth suggests steady manufacturing demand despite global trade headwinds.
02:00 GMT
China – Retail Sales Year-on-Year
Forecast: 3.0% | Previous: 3.4%
Currency: CNY
Why Traders Care:
Retail performance highlights consumer confidence and domestic demand strength. A slowdown may signal spending fatigue and weigh on growth expectations.
02:00 GMT
China – Unemployment Rate
Forecast: 5.2% | Previous: 5.3%
Currency: CNY
Market lens:
A modest improvement in employment conditions indicates gradual stabilization, supporting the outlook for household consumption.
06:00 GMT
Germany – Producer Price Index Month-on-Month
Forecast: -0.2% | Previous: -0.5%
Currency: EUR
Market insight:
Easing producer price declines suggest early signs of cost stabilization. Persistent weakness, however, reinforces the eurozone’s disinflation trend.
06:00 GMT
Germany – Producer Price Index Year-on-Year
Forecast: -1.9% | Previous: -2.2%
Currency: EUR
Why Traders Care:
Falling producer prices reflect subdued manufacturing demand and low inflation pressures — key factors shaping ECB rate expectations.
12:30 GMT
Canada – Producer Price Index Year-on-Year
Forecast: 4.6% | Previous: 4.0%
Currency: CAD
Market mover:
Rising producer prices indicate higher input costs, potentially signaling inflation persistence and shaping the Bank of Canada’s rate stance.
12:30 GMT
Canada – Producer Price Index Month-on-Month
Forecast: -0.3% | Previous: 0.5%
Currency: CAD
Market lens:
Monthly price moderation could ease inflationary pressure, influencing short-term expectations for policy adjustments.
14:00 GMT
United States – CB Leading Index Month-on-Month
Forecast: -0.3% | Previous: -0.5%
Currency: USD
Why Traders Care:
This composite index aggregates ten major indicators to signal turning points in the U.S. economy. Consecutive declines often foreshadow slower growth or potential contraction periods.
Monday’s calendar
is set to open the week with a heavy focus on China’s economic trajectory and global price trends. Market sentiment will hinge on whether the data signal resilience or reveal mounting headwinds for the world’s major economies.
The chart displays
USD/CAD on a
5-minute scale after Canada’s
PPI release on
September 22, 2025, isolating the data-driven move and ensuing volatility to show how a single print can quickly shift sentiment and the
CAD.
Canada's PPI YoY and PPI MoM Release - 22 September, 2025
In August 2025, Canada’s Industrial Product Price Index (IPPI)
rose 0.5% m/m and 4.0% y/y as higher prices for
chemicals,
meat/fish/dairy (+1.9% led by beef +5.2% and chicken +2.1% on strong demand and tight supply),
motorized vehicles, and
primary non-ferrous metals (+1.0% on gold +1.6% and silver +1.9%) outweighed a
1.3% drop in
energy and petroleum (crude −3.9%; refined −1.5%; diesel −6.0% while gasoline +1.8% on summer demand);
IPPI ex-energy increased
0.7%. Year over year, gains were driven by
precious metals (+36.3%),
beef (+28.9%), and
poultry (+18.4%), partly offset by
finished gasoline (−5.4% on base effects). The Raw Materials Price Index (RMPI)
fell 0.6% m/m (ex-crude energy
+0.9%) as
crude energy slid
3.7% amid OPEC+ supply concerns, while
metal ores rose
2.0% (gold/silver ores +2.1%, twelfth monthly gain) and
crop products fell
1.7% on
canola (−6.4%) after Chinese tariffs. Year over year, the RMPI
rose 3.2% (ex-crude energy
+15.5%), led by
precious-metal ores (+37.0%) and
cattle/calves (+19.9%), with declines in
conventional (−16.2%) and
synthetic crude (−16.6%) tempering the increase.
Profit Study
The Profit Study below illustrates the required margin and potential profit for this setup, using examples that show how leverage impacts trading outcomes.
At the time of this release,
USD/CAD traded at 1.38115
- At an open price of 1.38115, trading 1 standard lot with 1:500 leverage required a margin of $200 USD.
- At the same open price and 1:2000 leverage, the required margin dropped to $50 USD.
Pip Value (USD/CAD): $7.24 USD per pip per standard lot.
For example, entering a
long at
Point A (1.38115) and closing at
Point C (1.38316) captured
20.1 pips, equivalent to
$145.52 USD profit on one standard lot.
Alternatively,
entering long at Point B (1.37931) and closing at
Point C (1.38316) captured
38.5 pips, equivalent to
$278.74 USD profit on one standard lot.
Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.
Australia – RBA Meeting Minutes
United Kingdom – Employment Change
Euro Area – Industrial Production Month-on-Month
Japan – Machinery Orders Month-on-Month
Trading angle:
Thursday’s calendar spans key economic indicators from four major economies. Canadian retail sales provide insight into consumer strength heading into Q4, while U.S. existing home sales test housing market resilience amid tight credit conditions. Later, Australian flash PMIs offer a glimpse into private sector performance, followed by Japanese inflation readings that may influence monetary expectations.
Fast track:
