willcare signal & analysis

[xbdk_utm]

market slow la plak

 

[tajul]

7:50am JPY Tankan Large Manufacturers Index 21 (forecast) 23(previous)
7:50am JPY Tankan Large Non-Manufacturers Index 18 (forecast) 20 (Previous)

Sesiapa boleh bagi penerangan pasal News ini. Ada impact kuat atau tidak.

TQ.

 

[awek_goku]

7:50am JPY Tankan Large Manufacturers Index 21 (forecast) 23(previous)
7:50am JPY Tankan Large Non-Manufacturers Index 18 (forecast) 20 (Previous)

Sesiapa boleh bagi penerangan pasal News ini. Ada impact kuat atau tidak.

TQ.

ko klik je dekat warna2 tu
nnt kuar penjelasan..
baca2 skit bro
xleh nak hrap org bg sume

 

[fising]

Japan's Q4 Tankan to show falling business confidence on profit, credit
TOKYO (Thomson Financial) - The Bank of Japan's quarterly Tankan survey due out next week is expected to show that business confidence continued to be eroded in the fourth quarter on growing concerns about earnings and rising procurement costs.

Anxiety about the US economy and global financial markets due to the subprime mortgage crisis and the stronger yen are also expected to hurt confidence.

The BoJ will release the quarterly Tankan survey on December 14.

Faced with a rapid deterioration of the business climate, corporate Japan may scale back profit forecasts, making smaller-than-usual upward revisions or even reductions to capital investment plans.

Given that the Tankan is expected to reflect a slowdown in the corporate sector, which until now has served as a key growth driver for the world's second-largest economy, the Bank of Japan is most likely to stand pat on its rate policy in December.

The BoJ held rates steady for the eleventh straight meeting in November.

The Tankan polls more than 10,000 companies across a range of industries and paints a detailed picture of how they see business conditions over a 3-6 month period. The results are expressed in diffusion indexes, with positive numbers indicating that bullish opinions outnumbered bearish ones.

Fifteen economists polled by Thomson Financial predicted that the headline index of business confidence among big manufacturers fell, on average, to 21 in December from 23 in the September poll. Estimates range from 19 to 22.

'Reflecting mounting concerns about profits due to higher procurement costs, such as of crude oil, and the appreciation of the yen, as well as concerns about a slowdown in the US economy, business sentiment is expected to deteriorate across the broad front,' RBS Securities chief economist Mamoru Yamazaki said.

'So the forthcoming Tankan survey is likely to underscore a weakening of the growth momentum of the Japanese economy,' he said.

RBS Securities is forecasting a decline to 19 in the sentiment diffusion index for leading manufacturers with the stronger yen expected to weigh.

In late November, the dollar touched a low of 107.17 yen, its weakest level since June 10, 2005, when the greenback hit 106.85 yen. The Japanese currency traded at a five-year low of 124.12 against the dollar on June 22.

'If the yen averages around 105 yen or so for the rest of the fiscal year ending March (2008), this could subtract 0.3 percentage point from the second-half GDP (growth),' Mitsubishi UFJ Securities senior economist Tatsushi Shikano said.

In the September Tankan survey, Japanese companies set their average hedging rate at 114.40 yen for the year to March 2008.

Mitsubishi UFJ Securities expects a smaller decline in the sentiment diffusion index for large manufacturers to 21 in the December survey.

Domestic demand concerns

'In addition, the fallout from the tighter construction safety rules introduced in June will weigh heavily on such sectors as ceramic products,' said Shikano.

The government recently said housing starts dropped 35 percent to 76,920 units in October from a year earlier, falling at a double-digit rate for the fourth straight month.

Japan's revised Construction Standard Law has tightened rules for certification of building blueprints following revelations that lax screening procedures have made it possible for construction plans with fake anti-seismic data to be approved.

Meanwhile, confidence among big non-manufacturers is expected to fall slightly to 18 from 20 in the September poll, with the forecasts ranging from 17 to 19. The category includes services companies, retailers and wholesalers, among others.

'Business sentiment was hit hard by the deterioration of consumer sentiment due to rises in gasoline and food prices,' said Daiwa Institute of Research economist Masahiko Hashimoto.

Hashimoto forecast the decline in the business sentiment diffusion index for large non-manufacturers to 19 from 20.

The government said recently that the consumer confidence index fell to 42.8 in October, its lowest since March 2004 when the index stood at 42.7, and down from 44.1 in September due to concerns about the trends in prices and macroeconomic activity.

The same data showed that 76.3 percent of those surveyed expected prices to rise in a year's time, from 65.6 percent in September.

The average cost of regular class gasoline, or low-octane fuel, stood at 154.9 yen per liter as of December 3, an all-time high and up from the November 26 price of 150.1 yen, according to the Oil Information Center.

Economists are also expecting a worsening of sentiment in the December quarter among smaller companies, which employ most of Japan's workforce, due to higher procurement costs and sluggish domestic demand.

The sentiment diffusion index for small manufacturers is expected to come in at minus 2, from plus 1, while the index of business confidence among small non-manufacturers is expected at minus 14, from minus 10 in the September survey.

'Small-sized companies, which face difficulties in raising delivery prices due to concerns about the impact on sales, are feeling stronger downside risks for their profits than leading companies,' Mizuho Research Institute senior economist Yasuo Yamamoto said.

Mizuho Research Institute is forecasting the diffusion index for small manufacturers at minus 3 and that for small non-manufacturers at minus 14.

The Ministry of Finance said recently that the combined pretax profit of non-financial companies at the parent level dipped 0.7 percent in the third quarter from a year earlier, the first fall in 21 quarters, hobbled by surging procurement costs, a stronger yen and sluggish domestic demand.

The recent government survey showed that at companies with capital of between 100 million yen and 1 billion yen, combined pretax profit dropped 16.9 percent, the biggest fall since the fourth quarter of 2001.

In the September Tankan survey, all industries, including small-, mid-, and large-sized companies projected a combined 0.5 percent rise in pretax profits before extraordinary items for the year to March 2008.

At that time, small-sized companies forecast a 0.4 percent fall in the aggregate pretax profits and large-sized companies projected a 0.9 percent gain in pretax profits.

'The deterioration of profits at small- and mid-sized companies prevents an improvement of wage condition, thereby capping consumer spending,' BNP Paribas Securities chief economist Ryutato Kono said.

The labor sub-index, which counts the number of companies that believe they have too many employees and subtracts those that believe they have too few, stood at minus 9, worse than minus 8 in the June poll.

The government also reported recently that the average monthly cash earnings of a regular employee in Japan, including overtime and bonuses, stood at 275,441 yen in October, unchanged from a year earlier. The October reading follows a 0.6 percent fall in September and a 0.6 percent rise in August, which was the first increase in nine months.

Japan's unemployment rate was 4.0 percent in October, unchanged from September and exactly as forecast by economists, as small companies have become reluctant to hire because higher procurement costs threatened to squeeze profits, according to a separate set of government data.

Capex at risk

Investors are keen to see whether the downturn in business confidence caused by worries about profits has had any impact on fixed asset investment plans.

'Reflecting concerns about the appreciation of the yen, higher procurement costs and their impact on profits, as well as lingering uncertainty about the US economy, large-sized companies may reduce their capital investment plans, while small-sized companies may deliver smaller upward revisions than the past years,' Mitsubishi USJ's Shikano said.

Mitsubishi UFJ Securities is forecasting a 7.9 percent rise in capital investment plans at large companies and a 6.5 percent decline in capital outlays at small companies.

In the September survey, large companies expected a 8.7 percent rise in aggregate capital investment, while small companies predicted a 10.5 percent drop in capital outlays.

The market is also keen to see the latest Tankan sub-indexes on production capacity, because these, together with labor, supply and demand and price indexes, offer insight into the future trend of prices and have implications for interest rate policy under normal circumstances.

In the September poll, the production capacity sub-index, which counts the number of companies that believe they have too much production capacity, and subtracts those that believe they have too little, stood at zero.

The domestic supply and demand condition index, which counts the number of companies that points to excessive demand and those which point to over-supply stood at minus 7 among large manufacturers in the September Tankan, unchanged from the June poll.

The selling price index stood at plus 2 for large manufacturers in the September poll, unchanged from the level in the June poll.

'The Bank of Japan has so far not weakened its resolve to adjust interest rates, as it focuses on the domestic situation where demand continues to beat supply,' Dai-ichi Life Research Institute economist Hideo Kumano said.

'But the forthcoming Tankan may signal signs of deterioration in supply and demand conditions, as well as the price index and overall sentiment, which may delay any rate hike until around July 2008,' he said.

(1 US dollar = 111.09 yen)

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[realTEAcher]

..GJ maybe go to 50%fibo W1 utk lengkpkn retracmnt..UT

 

[will_care]

..GJ maybe go to 50%fibo W1 utk lengkpkn retracmnt..UT

cantik gambar bro dah update...ini mesti banyak profit nih..!!


willcare

 

[emas4u]

cantik gambar bro dah update...ini mesti banyak profit nih..!!


willcare

aik mana chartnyee??

 

[realTEAcher]

cantik gambar bro dah update...ini mesti banyak profit nih..!!


willcare

...________________


erkkkk.. ada kat page belakang..just follow je..
hehe.. x sangka mcm ni punya pening bljar forex.
#:-S #:-S #:-S

 

[will_care]

aik mana chartnyee??

bro lah pula ..bagi chart.Kasi info sikit bro! do u mind.......tentang trend hari ini.

kita buka topic pagi nih......

kemana GJ hari ini???

cite sikit bro tak banyak cikit je.


willcare

 

[will_care]

...________________


erkkkk.. ada kat page belakang..just follow je..
hehe.. x sangka mcm ni punya pening bljar forex.
#:-S #:-S #:-S

ahh ini bro nih ....cite sikit bro pasal market hari ini.Keluarkan lah sikit ilmu terpendam tuh share kat member2 kat CG nih.Banyak2 simpan kat dada nanti leh sakit jantung bila tak dikeluarkan..

willcare