What Traders Are Watching for Bitcoin's Next Move
What Traders Are Watching for Bitcoin's Next Move
If Bitcoin stays well above max pain into Friday, dealers who sold call options may need to keep buying the underlying asset to stay hedged, which can add upward pressure. If the price gets pulled toward the $68,000 zone instead, that dynamic reverses, and expiries this size tend to add volatility either way as positions unwind.
Nvidia's earnings, after the bell
Degens follow Bitcoin as Wall Street follows Nvidia.
Nvidia reports second-quarter results after Wednesday's market close, with Wall Street forecasting around $92.3 billion in revenue. The company matters to crypto traders because it is the clearest bellwether for how much money is still flowing into AI infrastructure spending, and much of this year's Bitcoin rally has moved in tandem with AI stock enthusiasm rather than on its own.
When investors feel confident about tech earnings, they tend to add exposure across the entire risk curve, crypto included. Remember that right now, AI/tech stocks are moving the SP500 but are also in a very risky mood that conservative traders may not want to touch.
A strong beat with confident guidance could pull more capital into risk assets broadly and extend Wednesday's dip-buying into Bitcoin. A miss, or cautious guidance on AI spending, could do the opposite and drag tech stocks and crypto lower together, given how tightly the two have moved this year.
Warsh's first test at Jackson Hole
Kevin Warsh, who took over as Fed chair in May, delivers his first keynote at the Fed's Jackson Hole symposium on Friday. His remarks come three weeks ahead of the Fed's September 16 rate decision, where policymakers will also publish updated economic projections.
It is the first time markets get to hear how a new Fed chair actually talks about policy, not just what the data says. Traders parse the tone as much as the words, since a single line about inflation risk or labor-market weakness can shift rate expectations for weeks.
A dovish tone that downplays the hot PCE print and leans on the softer labor market could push yields and the dollar lower, the same combination that fueled this month's rally in the first place. A hawkish tone that leans into inflation risk could do the opposite and extend Wednesday's pullback into the weekend.
Futures pricing has already swung hard in the past month. The CME FedWatch tool, which converts bond market bets into rate-decision odds, now shows a 38.4% chance of a September rate hike, down from 82% a month ago, with 61.6% leaning toward no change.
Where the money is actually flowing
US spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs pulled in $2.6 billion in new money last week, their best week since October 2025, though most of the funds' growth came from existing coins simply gaining value.
ETF flows are the cleanest real-time signal of institutional demand, separate from retail trading or derivatives speculation. Shrinking exchange supply is another stat worth following alongside because it leaves fewer coins available to sell into any new demand, which makes price more sensitive to both buying and selling pressure than in a deeper market.
That scarcity helped fuel a short squeeze last week, when traders betting on falling prices were forced to buy back at a loss, wiping out roughly $3 billion in bearish bets in a single day.
If ETF inflows continue while exchange supply keeps shrinking, the same mechanics could push price higher on relatively modest buying; a reversal to sustained outflows would remove that support just as quickly.
This article has been published in [decrypt.co](https://yahoo.com) via Yahoo News.
What Traders Are Watching for Bitcoin's Next Move
Bitcoin's monster rally just hit its first real test. Here's why each catalyst matters and how they could move the price from here.
finance.yahoo.com
