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AUD/USD: RBA will keep current interest rate. Trading scenarios
04/02/2019
The US dollar is trading higher on Monday, and the DXY dollar index futures at the beginning of the European session is at 95.46, 12 points higher than the opening price of the trading day.
As reported last Friday by the US Department of Labor, the number of non-agricultural jobs increased by 304,000 in January, while the average hourly wage in the private sector increased by 3.2% from the previous year. The forecast was +170,000 jobs. Despite the fact that unemployment rose to 4% from 3.9%, it still remains at its lowest level in the last 10 years. Investors considered the report to be generally positive, which gave the US dollar an impetus for further growth.
At the same time, the AUD / USD is falling from the opening of the trading day on Monday and at the beginning of the European trading session, trading near the 0.7230 mark.
On Tuesday, the attention of traders will be directed to the publication at 03:30 (GMT) of the decision on the RBA interest rate. It is expected that the central bank of Australia will leave its key interest rate unchanged, at a record low of 1.5%. Market participants will closely monitor the rhetoric of the RBA's accompanying statement.
The fall in housing prices, the slowdown in consumer spending, weak wage growth, the trade conflict between the United States and China, and the uncertain prospects for the global economy have become factors in the slowdown in GDP growth in 2019.
Any concerns of the RBA leadership regarding the growth of the country's economy can be considered by investors as a signal to resume sales of the Australian dollar.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics
Meanwhile, AUD / USD is declining, attempting to consolidate below the support level of 0.7245 (EMA144 on the daily chart).
In the event of a breakdown of short-term support levels of 0.7204 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart), 0.7172 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart, EMA50 on the daily chart) AUD / USD will move towards the support levels of 0.7085, 0.7025 with the prospect of further decline with long-term goals at the levels support 0.6910 (lows of September 2015), 0.6830 (lows of 2016).
An alternative scenario assumes the resumption of upward correction. In case of a breakdown of the key resistance level of 0.7295 AUD / USD, it will go to resistance levels of 0.7385, 0.7460 (Fibonacci 23.6% of the correction to the wave of decline in the pair from July 2017 and the level of 0.9500. The minimum of this wave is near the level of 0.6830).
Further growth is unlikely due to a number of fundamental factors.
Support Levels: 0.7204, 0.7172, 0.7085, 0.7025
Resistance Levels: 0.7245, 0.7295, 0.7385, 0.7460
Trading scenarios
Sell in the market. Stop Loss 0.7280. Take-Profit 0.7204, 0.7172, 0.7085, 0.7025, 0.6910, 0.6830
Buy Stop 0.7305. Stop Loss 0.7240. Take-Profit 0.7385, 0.7460
*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
04/02/2019
The US dollar is trading higher on Monday, and the DXY dollar index futures at the beginning of the European session is at 95.46, 12 points higher than the opening price of the trading day.
As reported last Friday by the US Department of Labor, the number of non-agricultural jobs increased by 304,000 in January, while the average hourly wage in the private sector increased by 3.2% from the previous year. The forecast was +170,000 jobs. Despite the fact that unemployment rose to 4% from 3.9%, it still remains at its lowest level in the last 10 years. Investors considered the report to be generally positive, which gave the US dollar an impetus for further growth.
At the same time, the AUD / USD is falling from the opening of the trading day on Monday and at the beginning of the European trading session, trading near the 0.7230 mark.
On Tuesday, the attention of traders will be directed to the publication at 03:30 (GMT) of the decision on the RBA interest rate. It is expected that the central bank of Australia will leave its key interest rate unchanged, at a record low of 1.5%. Market participants will closely monitor the rhetoric of the RBA's accompanying statement.
The fall in housing prices, the slowdown in consumer spending, weak wage growth, the trade conflict between the United States and China, and the uncertain prospects for the global economy have become factors in the slowdown in GDP growth in 2019.
Any concerns of the RBA leadership regarding the growth of the country's economy can be considered by investors as a signal to resume sales of the Australian dollar.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics
Meanwhile, AUD / USD is declining, attempting to consolidate below the support level of 0.7245 (EMA144 on the daily chart).
In the event of a breakdown of short-term support levels of 0.7204 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart), 0.7172 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart, EMA50 on the daily chart) AUD / USD will move towards the support levels of 0.7085, 0.7025 with the prospect of further decline with long-term goals at the levels support 0.6910 (lows of September 2015), 0.6830 (lows of 2016).
An alternative scenario assumes the resumption of upward correction. In case of a breakdown of the key resistance level of 0.7295 AUD / USD, it will go to resistance levels of 0.7385, 0.7460 (Fibonacci 23.6% of the correction to the wave of decline in the pair from July 2017 and the level of 0.9500. The minimum of this wave is near the level of 0.6830).
Further growth is unlikely due to a number of fundamental factors.
Support Levels: 0.7204, 0.7172, 0.7085, 0.7025
Resistance Levels: 0.7245, 0.7295, 0.7385, 0.7460
Trading scenarios
Sell in the market. Stop Loss 0.7280. Take-Profit 0.7204, 0.7172, 0.7085, 0.7025, 0.6910, 0.6830
Buy Stop 0.7305. Stop Loss 0.7240. Take-Profit 0.7385, 0.7460
*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com