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[ijak8510]

Harga minyak dapat terjun ke $ 25 tanpa tindakan OPEC

Harga minyak dapat segera terjun ke $ 25 tingkat, jika anggota OPEC akan tetap menganggur dan tidak akan mengambil langkah-langkah untuk menyeimbangkan kembali-pasar, kata Menteri Perminyakan Venezuela, Euxolio del Pino.

Dalam pidatonya di Teheran masa lalu Minggu, Euxolio del Pino mengatakan bahwa Venezuela mengaku negara OPEC lainnya untuk mengambil tindakan yang tepat untuk meningkatkan harga minyak untuk keseimbangan mereka $ 88 / bbl. Tingkat harga ini bisa memungkinkan produsen minyak untuk menutupi biaya pengembangan fasilitas ekstraksi baru, katanya.

Menurut kata-katanya penawaran tersebut sedang dipertimbangkan oleh Arab Saudi dan Qatar.

"Kita tidak bisa membiarkan pasar untuk menjaga pengaturan harga minyak, tujuan OPEC adalah mengambil tindakan pada penurunan harga minyak dan kami harus kembali ke prinsip-prinsip" - kata Del Pino.

Pertemuan OPEC akan diselenggarakan pada tanggal 4 Desember. Mereka tetap sekitar 40% dari pasokan minyak dunia dan volume produksi mereka telah melebihi kutipan resmi 30M bbl. / Hari selama 17 bulan.

Sementara itu, boikot Rusia akan diperpanjang selama 6 bulan sesuai dengan keputusan pemimpin AS dan Uni Eropa, laporan Channel NewsAsia dengan link ke sumber-sumber diplomatik.

Menurut Channel NewsAsia, kesepakatan itu dicapai di luar panggung selama puncak "Big 20" meskipun panggilan untuk memulihkan kerjasama dengan Rusia untuk secara efektif memerangi terorisme.

Sanksi saat melawan Rusia berakhir pada bulan Januari 2016. Bersama dengan rubel yang signifikan berlebihan menurut Goldman Sachs, ini dapat menyebabkan lonjakan USD / RUB untuk keseimbangan 70 tingkat. Kami akan nasihat pedagang untuk hati-hati menonton pasangan in

Source : Tickmill Market Commentary

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[ijak8510]

North correction on the commodity market​

Commodity assets and currencies signal about a possible correction to growth. However, it is only a correction as the market is waiting for the interest rate increase in December. If this happens, then the commodity unit has all the chances to continue its movement south.

Gold

We will try buying gold after the reverse and pullback to the level of 1077.00:

NZD/USD

There is an inverse head-and-shoulders forming for the New Zealand currency, therefore there is an option of buying Kiwi after the break and rollback to the neckline. There is also a more aggressive option – to place a buy on the break of the neckline:

Silver

Silver

Silver has stopped by a strong day support and is forming a potential bottom by “drawing” dojis – we will try to buy small volumes of the pair at a current rate:

Source : Tickmill Market Commentary

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[ijak8510]

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[ijak8510]

This is going to be a fun week for EUR/USD​

Upcoming week is crucial for the EUR/USD pair and especially for the US Dollar. There is the ECB meeting and the US Non-farm payrolls scheduled for this week.

As for the ECB meeting, we anticipate a continuation or even an increase of the QE program as well as further decrease of the deposit rates. In fact, falling Euro is a good tendency for the Eurozone, considering its deflation perspective.

As for the US Dollar, it is worth expecting a strong data on the labor market, although the Fed officials’ comments can weaken Dollar. Let us remind, that the Fed’s committee is not pleased by the Dollar’s strengthening in the world market as this starts to harm American exporters.

In general, there are chances of Euro’s correction considering that we have come to the important support levels for the EUR/USD pair.

EUR/USD

Euro is approaching a strong day support at 1.0460-1.0520 and there could be a reverse for Euro. It is interesting to wait for the confirmation signs in the form of candlestick signals. On the other hand, we are not eliminating the chances of breaking this support:

XAU/USD

Despite the correction expectations gold continues to fall. Focusing on the height of the broken triangle, there are chances for the precious metal to reach not even a 1000.00 level, but also to fall lower to the 980 dollars per ounce:

NZD/USD

Everything is simple when it comes to Kiwi – we are approaching the upstream channel. We are more prone to buy the pair, however focusing on the candlestick signals:

source : Tickmill Market Commentary

 

[ijak8510]

China’s economy stalls.USD bulls eased the pressure on Euro and Yen.​

As the official investigation showed on Tuesday, Manufacturing industry in China has been shrinking for four consecutive months and reached its 3-year lows in November. This indicates that Chinese economy is slowing despite of the government efforts to boost it.

Purchasing manager index (PMI) for manufacturing sector in China dropped to 49.6 points in November while the same figure for the previous month was 49.8 points, reports National Statistics Bureau. The figure fell short of Bloomberg analysts’ expectations. Sub-index of new orders declined to 49.8 points comparing to 50.3 points in October. Non-manufacturing PMI grew to 53.6 points in November comparing to 53.1 points in the previous month.

Some analysts suppose that the biggest Eastern economy will step into a stage of revitalization in Q4, as the incentive package applied by the government will take effect gradually. For this reason many analysts remain discreet in their forecasts.

Meanwhile, US Dollar index (USDX) finally turned bearish when traders started to buy Euro, which was affected by the fears of QE extension by ECB for a long time. USDX dropped to 100.05 (-0.12%) by 6:00 GMT, though it was very close to its March highs at 100.390.

EUR managed to overcome its 7-month low of $1.05575 and reach $1.0580. However, strong US Dollar makes it difficult for the E.U. currency to continue growth.

USD/JPY dropped to 122.89 (-0.13%), on the rumors that the biggest Japanese pension fund began hedging the exchange rate to support the national currency.

Source : Tickmill Market Commentary

 

[ijak8510]

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[ijak8510]

Euro suddenly surged against Dollar. Oil prices increase.

Oil turned bullish as Euro surged by 3.1% against Dollar before the OPEC’s meeting scheduled for today. ECB President Draghi stated that QE program will be implemented in less aggressive way, which disappointed investors and resulted in Euro boost against other majors.

GMT Brent futures rose by $0.16 to $44.00/bbl., WTI price appreciated by $0.22 to $41.30. Prices rose by 3% on Thursday.

There has been some rumors spread by the internet-magazine Energy Intelligence on Thursday that OPEC is going to propose a production cut by 1M barrels daily. Despite these rumors, analysts tend to think that organization won’t make this decision. Market experts suppose that Indonesian comeback to OPEC and Iran’s intentions to increase output will have a much bigger impact on the markets.

“There is a possibility that OPEC will increase output by 1M bbl./day in case Indonesia participates to OPEC”, – says National Australia Bank analyst Vian Lay. According to analysts’ expectations, Oil prices will float in a range of $46-$54/bbl.

Meanwhile EUR rose against other majors the most from 2009 and USDX dropped to 97.591, retreating from its 12-year peak.

Today investors are waiting for the NFP data release which will give a clue whether FED will increase the interest rate in December or not.

Source : Tickmill Market Commentary

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[ijak8510]

November Payroll data beats expectations

Non-Farm payrolls for November released by the labor department on Friday showed growth, beating expectations.

According to the report the number of jobs created in November averaged 211K comparing to 298K jobs in October. October data was revised to 271K.

Analysts expected the report to show only 200K jobs.

EUR/USD responded with a sharp plunge from 1.0926 to 1.0873 but then quickly returned to the 1.0935 level.

Source : Tickmill Market Commentary

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