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October NFP release beats all expectations
December rate hike possibility surges to 70%​

The estimates on the pace of the US economy recovery were different from very pessimistic to full hopes. But October NFP report seems to beat them all. Outstanding US Labor data exceeded all expectations of economists surveyed by Bloomberg, who ranged the change from 75,000 to 250,000 increase. Actual number of jobs created in October was 271,000, the biggest from 2009. Unemployment claims declined to the seven years low and averaged only 5%, while hourly earnings increased to the 2008 pre-crisis level.

As it might be expected USD added to all majors with EUR/USD tumbled from 1.089 to 1.070 during the NFP release then returning to 1.07660 level.

USD/JPY rose from 121.900 to 123.300 level, GBP/USD started to fall from the start of Friday session then plunging to 1.50370 level during the release.

US indices such as DJIA, Nasdaq and S&P 500 erased their weekly loss, while US treasures tumbled.

The odds of rate hike rose from 56% to 70% after the US non-farm payroll release as signs of recovery that Fed is looking for are obvious now. The assumed effective benchmark is 0.375%.

In addition to growth in payrolls and wages, “we’re also seeing a number of other important bellwethers of progress,” Labor Secretary Tom Perez said in a phone interview: “We’re continuing to have the wind at our backs.”

The conditions for rate liftoff are becoming very comfortable, the requirement of “one further improvement” in labor market is fully fulfilled and the “live possibility” that Fed’s chair Yellen mentioned last month in her speech, turns to be much more solid than expected.

Source : Tickmill Market Commentary

 

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China deals with deflation trends​

China continues to struggle with deflation according to the latest CPI release. In October it averaged 1.3% against 1.6% a year earlier. CPI figures have missed the analysts’ forecast predicting a 1.4% rise comparing to the last year.

Prices for pork which has significant impact on Chinese inflation have been decreasing in the last months. Prices on main consumer goods rose by 1.15%.

PPI index lost 5.9% and maintained a consistent fall for the third month in a row and some analysts see it as a deflationary trend in this sector.

Source : Tickmill Market Commentary

 

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Crude reserves increase in the US

The report released by the American Petroleum Institute indicates that crude inventories increased by 6.3M bbl. and averaged 486.1M bbl. on the week ending on November 6th.

According to API data, gasoline reserves declined by 3.2M bbl.

Analysts’ estimates saw crude inventories rising by only 1M bbl., petrol supply shrinking by 800,000 bbl., and distillates – by 900,000 bbl.

Oil prices responded on the spot, WTI price declined by 1% waving around 43.70 level, Brent declined by 0.5% to 47.19 at the time of publication.

China retail sales rise

Macroeconomic data released in China shows that transformation of the economy model from industrially-driven to consumption-oriented has been already set on.

Industrial output rose by poor 5.6%, the weakest from 2008 crisis, while retail sales surged by 11% in October, the biggest gain this year.

“China’s economy is still in a downward trend, weighed by both domestic and international pressures,” said Xia Le, a Hong Kong-based economist at Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA: “Financial market volatility has impacted the real economy and it’s more difficult for companies, especially manufacturers, to obtain financing.”

Source : Tickmill Market Commentary

 

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Paris killing: will the market shock be short-term or extend for some more?​

Paris massacre happened at night on November 14th and caused a short-term shock on financial markets with few analysts expecting that the impact could be dragged out. US and UK stocks suffered the most but recovered very soon: DJIA +0.22%, S&P500 +0.26%, DAX +0.45%, FTSE 100 +0.21% at the time of release.

French government decided to close the country’s borders as a security measure, striking a crushing blow against tourism and travel sector companies. This sector being the weighty part and accounting for almost 7.5% of GDP could lead to a far-reaching repercussions on French economy which probably have already started to worry ECB considering the extension of its easing program in December.

EUR/USD responded by a short drop from 1.0737 to 1.0700 recovering in late Asian session. Further EUR and EU markets strengthening is questioned and depends on how soon travel restrictions will be lifted in France.

“These Paris terrorist attacks and the larger scale of this attack could have a meaningful negative impact on the travel and tourism sector,” said Robert T. Lutts, chief investment officer at Cabot Wealth Management in Salem, Massachusetts.

With talks resuming to intensify military intervention in Syria, Defense sector may get another boost. Its performance beats US equities and has good potential to rise this week. “The prospect of more military action in Syria may help defense group in the week ahead,” said Nicholas Colas, chief market strategist at the ConvergEx Group in New York.

The fact that the event happened on weekend had mild effect on markets preventing a big chaos. “If this had happened during market trading hours there could have been a panic but markets had a weekend to digest all the information,” said Eiji Kinouchi, chief technical analyst at Daiwa Securities in Tokyo.

We express condolences to all victims of this cruel crime against humanity and continue to watch for aftermath of the incident on the markets.

Stay Tunde With Tickmill Market Commentary to get lastest update from the markets

 

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Dollar rises on the expectations of strong inflation data from the US

Dollar is strengthening today against other ten major currencies in the expectation of October Inflation data from the US, reports Bloomberg.

According to the CFTC COT report, hedge funds and other big market players sharply ramped up their long net positions for the last three weeks.

CPI report showed an increase of 0.2% comparing to the previous month and added 0.1% comparing to same month in 2014. CPI Core report which doesn’t include food and utilities, as expected, averaged 0.2% and 1.9% respectively.
Inflation data will be released by the Labor department today at 13:30 GMT.

Spot index which indicates changes in USD value against 10 other major currencies rose by 0.2% to 99.589 today. It hit its peak of 99.605 during today’s session – the highest from April 14th.

EUR/USD slipped further to 1.0660 at 06:15 GMT comparing to 1.0686 at yesterday’s closing time.

USD also appreciated against JPY and rose to 123.41 comparing to 123.18 at yesterday’s closing time.

EUR slightly plummeted against JPY to 131.55 comparing to 131.63 of yesterday’s closing time.

Source : Tickmill Market Commentaries

 

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EIA report finally sends Oil prices up

Wednesday EIA release rescued Oil price from further nosedive with US reducing its crude inventories. However, analysts rule out the possibility of their appreciable rise in the first half of 2016.

According to EIA report, Crude reserves shrunk by 482,000 bbl., showing a substantial contradiction to the 1.9M bbl. increase estimate. Figures became a long-awaited signal for Oil bears boosting WTI by 1.30% to $41.20 and Brent by 1.70% to $44.32/bbl. at the time of this release.

Analysts warn that Oil excess still remains on the market and makes it impossible for the commodity prices to backtrack. According to the Energy Aspects report: “Market sentiments are deeply pessimistic right now. There are talks about $20 for a barrel”.

The cause of depression is Oil supply which exceeds the demand by 0.7-2.5M bbl. daily according to different estimates. Crude storages on land are almost full and storing Oil in tankers makes sense only when future contracts are high. Oil futures with delivery on January 2017 are traded $6 higher than January 2016 contracts which is not a sufficient markup for Oil ship storages.

Rising concerns about Chinese energy demand shakes almost all commodity markets with copper prices dropping to 16-years low on Wednesday. And Oil is no exception…

Stay tuned with Tickmill Market Commentary

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Protokol FED di bulan Oktober membantu pasar untuk mengakhiri minggu dengan catatan positif

Pertumbuhan substansial dari indeks saham Asia pada hari Kamis beralih ke gerakan sampingan relatif tenang hari ini, mengakhiri minggu dengan keuntungan.

Indeks MSCI Asia Pacific naik 1,9% setelah publikasi protokol Fed Oktober, yang mengisyaratkan investor bahwa AS tingkat fiskal akan ditingkatkan dengan cara langkah-demi-langkah.

Indeks Jepang Nikkei 225 turun 0,4% di hari Jumat, Topix kehilangan 0,3%, Australia S & P / ASX 200 membuat keuntungan signifikan dari 0,3%, Indeks Kospi Korea Selatan tetap menempatkan. Shanghai Composite naik 0,5% karena tidak ada laporan yang signifikan dari China yang dirilis pada hari Kamis, Hang Seng sedikit menurun sebesar 0,2%.

Protokol Oktober jelas menunjukkan bahwa Fed diatur untuk lepas landas tingkat pada bulan Desember dan dalam kasus mereka kembali turun, pasar dapat dilemparkan ke dalam kekacauan. Data ekonomi makro yang dirilis membuat kesan cukup positif pada investor sehingga bulls mendominasi pasar pekan ini.

Saham China Railway Construction Corp dan CRRC Corp meningkat sebesar 2% dan 1,6% masing-masing pada rumor bahwa China dan Polandia sedang bernegosiasi dengan pembangunan kereta api berkecepatan tinggi di Polandia.

Meningkatnya pasar komoditas mencerminkan apresiasi logam Cina memproduksi 'saham: China Molibdenum dan Tongling Nonferrous Logam, yang memperoleh 10%.

Sebaliknya, perusahaan-perusahaan minyak di China menderita menjatuhkan harga untuk minggu ketiga berturut-turut: PetroChina kehilangan 0,6% dan Shenzhen Energy Group turun 1,9%.

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