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Forex - Yen steady in early Asia as Greece pops back into foucs

Forex - Yen steady in early Asia as Greece pops back into foucs
ForexApr 28, 2016 07:34PM ET

© Reuters. Yen steady in early Asia, Greece back in focus © Reuters. Yen steady in early Asia, Greece back in focus

Investing.com - The yen was mostly steady in early Asia on Friday after a volatile session that saw the Bank of Japan deal a surprise blow to markets by offering no additional stimulus at the conclusion of its policy meeting, with investors now turning attention to Greece and an ongoing review of its economic reform program.

USD/JPY traded at 108.12, up 0.01%, while AUD/USD changed hands at 0.7625, down 0.01%, ahead of data.

In Australia, housing credit data is due for March along with first quarter producer prices with a 0.2% gain seen quarter-on-quarter. As well, private sector credit for March is seen up 0.6% month-on-month.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was last quoted at 93.73.

Overnight, U.S. Treasury Secretary Jack Lew released a summary on Thursday of his phone conversation on Greece's economic reform efforts with Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras.

"Secretary Lew and Prime Minister Tsipras discussed the importance of Greece, the IMF, and European institutions constructively working together to conclude the first review of Greece's economic reform program and find a sustainable path forward in a timely manner. The Secretary underscored the importance of Europe following through on its commitment to put Greece's debt on a sustainable path through meaningful debt relief, adding that all parties need to be flexible to successfully conclude the negotiations."

On Thursday, the dollar pared losses against the other major currencies after the release of mixed U.S. economic reports, although the Federal Reserve’s most recent policy decision continued to weigh.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis said that U.S. economic growth slowed to an annual rate of 0.5%, from the 1.4% expansion registered in the fourth quarter of 2015.

That was the slowest pace of growth since the first quarter of 2014 and missed consensus expectations for a 0.7% increase. At the same time, the U.S. Department of Labor said the number of individuals filing for initial jobless benefits in the week ending April 23 decreased by 9,000 to a seasonally adjusted 257,000 from the previous week’s revised total of 248,000.

Analysts had expected jobless claims to rise by 12,000 to 260,000 last week.

The data came a day after the Fed left interest rates unchanged close to zero on Wednesday and offered little guidance on future rate hikes. On the other hand, the yen remained broadly supported after the Bank of Japan kept the deposit rate at minus 0.1% and its asset purchases at ¥80 trillion per year. It also pushed back the expected data for reaching its 2% inflation target.

Ahead of the meeting expectations had been building for more monetary stimulus measures.

 

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Oil prices dip on looming OPEC production rise

By Henning Gloystein

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Crude oil prices fell in early trading on Friday as a looming rise in Middle East output may drag on the stronger markets seen in April, although falling U.S. production and a weakening dollar are still offering support.

International benchmark Brent crude futures (LCOc1) were trading at $47.92 per barrel at 0236 GMT, down 22 cents from their last close.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures (CLc1) were down 18 cents at 45.85 a barrel.

Both contracts remained near 2016 highs of $48.19 and $46.14 per barrel respectively, and WTI's smaller fall was a result of declining U.S. crude output, traders said.

Despite Friday's dips, Brent and WTI are up almost a third from April troughs and are over 75 percent above their 2016 lows, lifted by falling output and a weaker dollar, which has fallen almost 6 percent against a basket of other leading currencies (DXY) this year.

But Deutsche Bank (DEBKGn) said that a looming rise in production by members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) - with climbing Iranian output and following outages in Iraq, Nigeria and the United Arab Emirates - could cap recent oil price rises.

"A sustainable rise in OPEC production may be just around the corner, and ... the rally may pause," the bank said in a note to clients.

"Maintenance in the UAE at fields ... is scheduled to end in April, implying a rise from current production of 2.73 million barrels per day (bpd) to the previous 2.91 million bpd production rate in May," Deutsche said.

For 2017, the bank said it expected to be around 33.1 million bpd, "with upside risks originating from Libya and Saudi Arabia, and downside risks from unplanned outages and spending cuts in Iraq".

One of the main repercussions of the global oil price rout between 2014 and early 2016 has been a deep economic crisis in crude export-reliant Venezuela, where political risk consultancy Eurasia Group said the government faces default as the state runs out of cash to keep the oil pumps running.

"The government needs to invest about $15 billion per year to maintain current production (2.4 million bpd), and mounting problems will probably lead to a decline of 100,000–150,000 bpd this year," Eurasia Group said.

"Barring a meaningful recovery in oil prices or fresh loans from China in the second half of the year, scarce foreign exchange will probably force the state to default later this year, most likely in the fourth quarter," it added.