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Oil tumbles as Kuwait oil workers end work stoppage

Oil tumbles as Kuwait oil workers end work stoppage
CommoditiesApr 20, 2016 07:39AM ET



Investing.com - Crude futures fell on Wednesday after Kuwaiti oil workers ended a three-day strike that had cut the nation's crude output by around half, with worries about an oversupplied market returning to the fore.

Brent crude futures were down 88 cents at $43.15 a barrel at 10:49.

U.S. crude was down 89 cents at $41.58 a barrel.

The end of the strike revived the bearish mood brought on by the failure of major producers on Sunday to agree to freeze output to help overcome a market imbalance that has caused a slump in prices since mid-2014.

 

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Germany confirms growth forecast despite weaker export prospects

BERLIN (Reuters) - The German government on Wednesday stuck to its economic growth forecast of 1.7 percent for this year, despite a slowdown in emerging markets, as strong domestic demand replaces exports as the main pillar of Europe's largest economy.

"Germany's economic upswing will continue this year and next," Economy Minister Sigmar Gabriel said. "Our growth model has become more domestically driven."

Other euro zone countries were benefiting from Germany demand, which was drawing more foreign goods, Gabriel added.

In 2017, the government expects economic growth to slow to 1.5 percent, mainly because of extraneous effects such as more public holidays falling on normal week days, Gabriel said.

He also said the global growth outlook remained fragile, citing weaker demand from major export destinations such as China and countries in Latin America.

The government expects employment to reach a record of 43.5 millions this year and nearly 44 millions in 2017. That should further propel domestic demand and push up tax revenue, enabling the government to increase state spending.

"Thanks to its strong economic position, I'm confident that Germany will master the challenges of accommodating and integrating the refugees," Gabriel said.

 

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EUR/USD: Euro Flat, Markets Eye ECB Statement

EURUSD is showing marginal movement on Wednesday, following gains which marked the pair in the Tuesday session. The pair is trading at 1.1360 in the European session. On the release front, German PPI posted a small gain of 0.2%, missing the estimate. ECB head Mario Draghi will deliver a speech in Frankfurt. Later in the day, the US releases Existing Home Sales as well as Crude Oil Inventories. Thursday will be busy, highlighted by the ECB rate decision. The US releases the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and Unemployment Claims, both key indicators.

Is inflation showing signs of life in the Eurozone? Weak inflation levels have underscored soft economic growth in the bloc, and the threat of deflation remains a constant worry for policymakers. However, there have been some encouraging signs on the inflation front. Last week, there were strong CPI numbers out of Germany and France the two largest economies in the bloc. On Wednesday, German PPI improved to 0.0%, ending a streak of seven straight declines. Still, inflation levels are far below the ECB target of about 2.0%, despite significant monetary moves by the central bank in March, such as cutting interest rates and expanding the ECB asset-purchase program. In March, Mario Draghi stated that the ECB would not lower interest rates anytime soon, which would leave the ECB with limited monetary options. Will the ECB make any moves at the policy meeting on Thursday? Even if the ECB remains on the sidelines, the markets will be giving ECB head Mario Draghi their full attention, as his comments following the ECB statement can quickly inject volatility into the currency markets.

The euro posted gains on Tuesday, in response to strong ZEW Economic Sentiment reports from the Eurozone and Germany. The Eurozone indicator climbed 21.5 points, crushing the estimate of 13.9 points. The German ZEW report improved to 11.2 points, above the forecast of 8.2 points and marking a 4-month high. The reports point to increased optimism and could signal that the Eurozone and German economies are gaining strength.

Oil prices have shown strong volatility since the weekend, when oil producers attended a meeting in Qatar on Sunday. The gathering, which included OPEC and non-OPEC nations, ended in disarray, without any agreement being reached by the participants. There was optimism that the parties might agree to maintain current production levels, but hopes for even this limited move were dashed when Saudi Arabia insisted that any agreement had to cover Iran. When this didn’t materialize, the participants closed up shop and returned home. The failure of the talks could severely undermine the credibility of oil producers, and the huge oversupply of crude could worsen if Saudi Arabia and other suppliers decide to increase output. Oil prices have zigzagged since the weekend. Initially, prices sagged after the inconclusive oil meeting, but have since rebounded sharply.

EUR/USD Fundamentals

Wednesday (April 20)

6:00 German PPI. Estimate 0.2%. Actual 0.0%
10:00 ECB President Mario Draghi Speaks
Tentative – German 10-year Bond Auction
14:00 US Existing Home Sales. Estimate 5.29M
14:30 US Crude Oil Inventories. Estimate 2.2M

Upcoming Key Events

Thursday (April 21)

11:45 ECB Mininum Bid Rate. Estimate 0.00%
12:30 ECB Press Conference
12:30 US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index. Estimate 8.1 points
12:30 US Unemployment Claims. Estimate 265K

 

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Will Euro Spiral Lower On ECB?

nvestors sold euros ahead of the European Central Bank’s monetary policy decision on the fear that Mario Draghi will backpedal on his comment about interest rates. Immediately after unleashing a barrage of fresh stimulus measures in March, Draghi said he did not anticipate more rate cuts. In response, investors sent the euro sharply higher as they interpreted his words to mean that the final bazooka was fired. However since March, the ECB head and his counterparts at the central bank have attempted to retract the claim but they were largely ignored. Considering that there has been more improvement than deterioration in the Eurozone economy over the last 6 weeks, the primary source of the central bank’s concern is the euro's level. Not only did aggressive easing fail to weaken the currency, but it is now trading 3 cents above its pre-ECB levels and 5 cents from that day’s low.

Since the beginning of the month, we’ve seen EUR/USD shoot up to a 5-month high of 1.1465, pull back to 1.1235 and settle right between those levels.Thursday’s ECB meeting could drive the currency pair out of that range although the upside would take longer to break than the downside given the proximity of both levels. No easing or tightening is expected but if Draghi spends his time signaling that there could be more rate cuts, the euro will spiral lower onto the 1.11 handle. However if he indicates that they need more time to see how easing affects the economy and leaves it at that, the euro will bounce and aim for 1.1400.

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar traded higher against all of the major currencies Wednesday with the exception of CAD. Stronger-than-expected existing home sales contributed to the move but it was the 6bp increase in 10-year yields and the continued gains in U.S. stocks that drew investors back to the dollar. Investors were also surprised by Fed President Rosengren’s hawkish comments. As one of the more dovish FOMC voting members, Rosengren typically leans toward slower tightening. But on Tuesday night he described the U.S. economy as fundamentally sound, saying he expects GDP growth to be slightly above potential suggesting that the market’s outlook for tightening is too pessimistic. In fact he said explicitly that, “the Fed will be raising rates faster than markets think.” If even a dove thinks rates will rise sooner, some adjustments need to happen in the dollar.

Sterling traded only slightly lower against the greenback Wednesday and while further losses appear likely, its complete disregard for fundamentals is astounding. The U.K. reported fairly weak labor-market numbers and investors shrugged off the news, sending GBP/USD sharply higher after a brief and shallow decline. A larger number of people filed for jobless claims in March and, more importantly, average weekly earnings growth slowed to 1.8% from 2.1% in February. Greater unemployment and slower wage growth is bad news for the U.K. economy and particularly for spending. Retail sales numbers are scheduled for release on Thursday and the slowdown in wage growth combined with the big drop in spending -- plus shop prices reported by the British Retail Consortium -- puts the risk to the downside for the report. GBP/USD tested the top of its recent range this past week and the combination of fundamentals and technicals could take the pair to the bottom.

The oil-worker strike in Kuwait ended but the rally in oil prices and the Canadian dollar did not. Both loonie and crude continued to press higher, shrugging off fresh highs in oil inventories. Even weaker Canadian data failed to set a bottom in the currency. Wholesale trade dropped more than 2%, the largest decline since 2008. While this number is not closely followed by most market watchers, it has an exceptionally strong correlation with the all-important retail sales report due on Friday. For the time being, the uptrend in oil and CAD's downtrend remain intact.

Both the Australian and New Zealand dollars traded lower versus the greenback on Wednesday. The New Zealand dollar was actually the day’s worst performer, falling close to 1% versus USD. This decline was driven by a pullback in the PMI services index, which reported the slowest pace of growth in 16 months. No major economic reports were released from Australia, but New Zealand was set to release data on consumer confidence and credit card spending. Australia releases its business confidence report next month. Both currencies are still in a strong uptrend.
Will Euro Spiral Lower On ECB?

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