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Weekly Market Update

Range of the week : 1.2300-1.2800

Is the U.S. economy running out of steam? The GDP data released last week would seem to provide clear proof: growth slowed to an annualized rate of only 0.5% in the first quarter of 2016, bringing the average for the last two quarters to 1%. This poor performance represents the worst pair of consecutive quarters since 2013 and was mainly due to declines in inventories and international trade. Other economic data released last week also appeared to suggest a slowdown: durable goods orders, personal spending and new home sales all fell short of the consensus figures.

The U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed), in its monetary policy update on Wednesday, was naturally very aware of the slight slowdown in economic activity south of the border. Given this context, the Fed did not change its target range for the federal funds rate. On the other hand, the committee (the FOMC) pointed out that the fundamentals, like the labour market and real household income, are improving and consumer sentiment remains high. It is interesting to note that the Fed’s leaders withdrew the sentence in the previous press release on the risks related to global developments. The FOMC has therefore left open the possibility of a rate hike in June, but investors strongly doubt it. In the midst of all this turmoil, the greenback continued on a vertiginous fall against the major currencies, after having reached a 13-year peak in January.

In concrete terms, the DXY index fell 2%, and the USD declined 1% against the loonie. So the real question is: Can the all-powerful U.S. dollar stage a comeback? In light of the most recent economic data, there is practically no expectation in the markets of any new interest rate hikes this year. So some positive news and a change in tone at the Fed may breathe new life into the USD. For example, last week saw large fluctuations in the values of two major currencies, the Japanese yen and the Australian dollar. After the Bank of Japan refused to inject more monetary stimulus, the yen jumped over 3% against the USD! And the Australian dollar, which moves much like the Canadian dollar, fell over 2% following the release of disappointing economic figures. In sum, the currency markets are still able to turn volatile on a dime.

In Canada, the news that garnered the most attention was the release of GDP data for February. A slowdown was to be expected after the oversized gains in January. As expected, the Canadian economy contracted 0.1% compared to the drop of -0.2% predicted by the economist survey. Here we see the positive impacts of a weak Canadian dollar. Despite a decline in February, manufacturing production is still near some of the highest levels seen in years, undoubtedly benefiting from strong exports. It should be mentioned that the average exchange rate in February was 1.3500, close to 1000 points above the current rates.

In terms of the economic news this week, Friday should be particularly busy when the U.S. and Canada simultaneously release employment data. The U.S. labour market has been strong lately, with the private sector creating over 230K net jobs, on average, in the last six months. However, our economists expect more modest figures for April. In Canada, a slowdown is also expected following an astounding quarter for job creation.

 

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NZD/USD – NZ Dollar Drops Below 70, Dairy Auction and Employment Change Next

NZD/USD has posted slight losses on Tuesday, reversing the upward trend in the Monday session. The pair is trading just below the 0.70 line in the European session. On the release front, New Zealand will release the Dairy Price Auction. This will be followed with key employment numbers, with the release of Employment Change and the unemployment rate. There are no major US events on the schedule. On Wednesday, the US releases two key events – ADP Nonfarm Employment Change and the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI.

The New Zealand central bank (RBNZ) remained on the sidelines last week and held the benchmark interest rate at 2.25%. This followed a surprise rate cut in March, when the RBNZ lowered rates from 2.50% to 2.25%. Some analysts had expected another cut in the April decision, and the New Zealand dollar jumped 160 points following the April rate announcement. Following the announcement, RBNZ Governor Graeme Wheeler stated that the central bank was weighing further easing in order to bring inflation up to the RBNZ’s inflation target of 1-3 percent. CPI in the first quarter improved to 0.2%, but this is well short of the central bank’s inflation target. Wheeler also noted that the New Zealand dollar is stronger than the RBNZ would like, as the higher kiwi has weakened the critical export sector. Although a June cut is a strong possibility, lower rates could increase housing demand and overheating the housing market.

Manufacturing remains a sore spot in a generally strong US economy, as weak global demand for US-made goods has taken its toll on the industry. On Monday, US ISM Manufacturing PMI, a key gauge of manufacturing output, missed expectations. The index dipped to 50.8 points, shy of the estimate of 51.6 points. This reading just above the 50-point line points to near stagnation in the manufacturing sector. As well, Final Manufacturing PMI and Construction Prices both missed expectations, but ISM Manufacturing Prices easily beat the forecast. Last week, Core Durable Goods dropped 0.2%, well off the estimate of a 0.6% gain. This marked the fourth decline in five months. Durable Goods Orders was stronger at 0.8%, but also missed expectations, as the estimate stood at 1.9%.

The first quarter of 2016 has been marked by shaky global markets and a sharp drop in oil prices, so slower growth for the US economy was not unexpected. GDP climbed 0.5% in the first quarter, shy of the estimate of 0.7%. This was considerably lower than the 1.4% gain in the fourth quarter of 2015, and marked the weakest quarter of growth in two years. Although economic growth remains moderate, the lukewarm reading will not help the cause of Fed policymakers who favor a rate hike, especially with inflation at low levels. The markets, which had not expected any moves from the Fed in April, are keeping a close eye on key numbers and looking for clues as to whether the Fed will raise rates at its June policy meeting. The April policy statement sounded cautiously optimistic about the US economy, leaving the door open regarding a rate hike in June.

NZD/USD Fundamentals

Tuesday (May 3)

Tentative – New Zealand GDT Price Index
18:45 New Zealand Employment Change. Estimate 0.6%
18:45 New Zealand Unemployment Rate. Estimate 5.5%
18:45 New Zealand Labor Cost Index. Estimate 0.3%
21:00 New Zealand ANZ Commodity Prices

Upcoming Key Events

Wednesday (May 4)

8:15 US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change. Estimate 205K
10:00 US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 54.9

*Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are EDT

NZD/USD for Tuesday, May 3, 2016

 

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[reggae]

wahh berminat la nak join,

withdraw mcmne TT? xde sangkut2 ke?

 

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