USD/SEK: Review & Forecast
The SEK achieved its level from November 2014 thanks to the weakened USD.
The steady downward trend continues, but at the moment the rates have consolidated in the range SEK 7.908 - 8.0. The market hasn't received any economic statistics or news from Sweden which would have affected the Swedish Krona, but the stable economic situation in the Eurozone isn't putting pressure on its value.
Since the end of August the rates have been influenced by the unstable political situation in the United States, the escalation of the conflict between the US and North Korea, and disappointing economic statistics in the United States. As a result, the value of the SEK has reached the level from November 2014, and the downward trend became more rapid. Falling to the minimum for many years began on August 25 when the FED Chairman Janet Yellen did not make any statements related with the country's monetary policy during the symposium in Jackson Hole, which confirmed investors' doubts of a further increase of the interest rate. Then the geopolitical factors, unemployment growth by 4.4%, a reduced volume of manufacturing production in July in 3.3% contrinuted to negatively affecting the USD value.
At the same time it is likely that the minimum has already been achieved and the current phase of consolidation can be the beginning of a flat trend. However, today the dollar can get some support from the release of new economic statistics: the market is waiting for the data on trade balance, and the PMI indices of business activity. Next week we also expect data about retail sales and consumer price indices.
At the moment volatility is very low. The MACD and RSI oscillators do not give us any signals for trading positions. In this situation it's necessary to pay attention to the entry points SEK 7,908 and 8.0, the achievement of which would indicate the completion of the consolidation phase. Now, the most effective course would be the deals to Buy in medium-term trading.
