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MARKET COMMENTARY


Market Wrap: Stocks, Bonds, Commodities

On Monday, U.S. stocks closed in positive territory, the S&P 500 rose 25 points (+0.58%) to 4,489, the Nasdaq 100 gained 177 points (+1.18%) to 15,205 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 26 points (+0.07%) to 35,307.

The Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment (+4.27%) and Media (+1.13%) sectors were the top performers, while the Automobiles & Components (-0.89%) and Utilities (-0.83%) sectors underperformed the most during the trading session.

United States Steel Corp (X), the steel producer, surged 36.8% after rejecting a 7.5 billion dollars bid from Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF), which represents a 43% premium on the company's closing price on August 11. Meanwhile, PayPal (PYPL), an online payment firm, rose 2.81% as it named Alex Chriss as its new CEO.

Nvidia (NVDA), a leading designer of graphics processors, climbed 7.09% as Morgan Stanley said that the company's stock price is a good entry point before its earnings update, following a recent selloff of the stock. The company is due to report earnings results on August 23.

Nikola Corporation (NKLA), a hydrogen-electric vehicle maker, dropped 6.67% after recalling 209 battery-electric trucks. Tesla (TSLA), the electric-vehicle maker, fell 1.19% after cutting prices of some of its Model Y vehicles in China.

AMC Entertainment (AMC), the theatrical exhibition company, sank 35.55% following a court approval that will allow the conversion of its preferred shares into common stock.

The U.S. 10-year Treasury Yield gained 4.7 basis points to 4.199%.

European stocks were mixed. The Dax 40 rose 0.46% and the Cac 40 gained 0.12%, while the FTSE 100 lost 0.23%.

WTI Crude Future (September) dropped $0.68 to $82.51.

Spot gold slipped $6 to $1,908.

Market Wrap: Forex

The U.S. dollar index rose 0.3% to 103.17, ahead of the U.S. retail sales for July due later today, with a growth of 1.0% on month estimated.

EUR/USD slid 43 pips to 1.0906. Germany's wholesale prices declined 0.2% on month in July, compared with a drop of 0.3% expected.

GBP/USD fell 11 pips to 1.2685. Later today, the U.K. jobless rate for the April-June period is expected to be stable at 4.0%.

USD/JPY rose 52 pips to 145.48 and USD/CHF climbed 17 pips to 0.8784.

AUD/USD lost 9 pips to 0.6487, while USD/CAD rose 20pips to 1.346. Canada's consumer price index for July, due later in the day, is anticipated to rebound to 3.1% on year.

Bitcoin traded lower to $29,355.

 

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MARKET COMMENTARY


Market Wrap: Stocks, Bonds, Commodities

On Tuesday, major U.S. indices were under pressure as the Chinese yuan slid to a 9-month low against the dollar, while Fitch ratings said it may have to slash the credit ratings of more U.S. banks. The S&P 500 declined 52 points (-1.16%) to 4,437, the Nasdaq 100 decreased 168 points (-1.10%) to 15,037 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 361 points (-1.02%) to 34,946.

The Banks (-2.75%), Automobiles & Components (-2.70%), and Energy (-2.44%) sectors underperformed the most during the trading session. JPMorgan Chase (JPM) fell 2.55%, Wells Fargo (WFC) slid 2.31%, Bank of America (BAC) dropped 3.2%, and US Bancorp (USB) lost 2.79%.

Meanwhile, PayPal (PYPL) slid 6.01% after Elliot Investment Management sold its stake in the online payment firm during the second quarter.

Tesla (TSLA), the electric-vehicle maker, dropped 2.84% as it revealed new, lower-priced base vehicles for its Model S and X lines.

Target (TGT), a leading general merchandise discount retailer, fell 3.38% ahead of its quarterly report, which is due Wednesday August 16th, as the company is expected to unveil its first sales decline in four years.

DR Horton (DHI) rose 2.89%, Lennar (LEN) gained 1.77%, and NVR (NVR) added 0.52% as a regulatory filing showed that Berkshire Hathaway (BRK/B) increased its stakes in those companies.

On the U.S. economic data front, July's retail sales grew 0.7% on month, above 0.3% estimated, and the Empire State Manufacturing Index was released at -19 for August, compared to 4.0 expected. Also, import prices rose 0.4% on month in July, above 0.2% anticipated, while business inventories were flat, compared with an expected increase of 0.2%.

The U.S. 10-year Treasury Yield gained 2.2 basis points to 4.213%, up for a fourth straight session.

European stocks were broadly lower. The Dax 40 fell 0.86%, the Cac 40 slid 1.10% and the FTSE 100 declined 1.57%.

WTI Crude Futures (September) lost $1.52 to $80.99. The American Petroleum Institute reported that the U.S. crude inventories dropped 6.20 million barrels in the week ending August 11, compared with an expected draw of 2.05 million barrels.

Spot gold was down $5 to $1,902.

Market Wrap: Forex

The U.S. dollar index was steady at 103.20. Later today, the Federal Reserve will release its latest FOMC meeting minutes.

USD/CNH jumped to a 9-month high at 7.3249. China's central bank lowered the rate on one-year medium-term lending facility loans by 15 basis points to 2.50%, the second time in three months. Meanwhile, China's industrial production grew 3.7% on year in July, below 4.7% expected, and retail sales were up 2.5%, below 4.6% estimated.

EUR/USD fell 3 pips to 1.0903. Germany's ZEW economic sentiment index was published at -12.3 in August, vs -15.0 expected, while the current conditions index was released at -71.3, against -61.0 expected.

GBP/USD gained 16 pips to 1.2699. In the U.K., the jobless rate for the April-June period rose to 4.2%, above 4.0% expected.

USD/JPY and USD/CHF were little changed at 145.57 and 0.8785 respectively.

Commodity-linked currencies were broadly under pressure against the greenback. AUD/USD dropped 33 pips to 0.6454 and NZD/USD slipped 21 pips to 0.5952, while USD/CAD climbed 40 pips to 1.3501. Canada's consumer price index climbed 3.3% on year in July, above 3.1% estimated and 2.8% in June.

Meanwhile, The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is anticipated to keep its benchmark rate unchanged at 5.50% later in the day.

Bitcoin traded lower to $29,176.

 

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MARKET COMMENTARY


Market Wrap: Stocks, Bonds, Commodities

On Thursday, U.S. stocks closed mixed. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 168 points (-0.48%) to 34,721, the S&P 500 fell 7 points (-0.16%) to 4,507, while the Nasdaq 100 rose 38 points (+0.25%) to 15,501 posting a five-session rally.

U.S. data showed that the core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index grew 4.2% on year in July (vs +4.0% expected). The Chicago purchasing managers index climbed to 48.7 in August (vs 45.0 expected).

The latest number of initial jobless claims fell to 228,000 (vs 236,000 expected).

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield dipped 0.8 basis point to 4.106%.

Later today, the closely-watched U.S. jobs report for August will be released. It is widely expected that the economy added 180,000 non-farm payrolls and the jobless rate remained stable at 3.5%.

Retailing (+1.11%), semiconductors (+0.80%), and automobiles (+0.45%) stock sectors performed well on Thursday, while health-care equipment & services (-2.01%), transportation (-1.27%), and food & beverage (-1.03%) sectors lagged behind.

Nvidia (NVDA) edged up 0.18% to another record close of $493.55.

Amazon (AMZN) and Shopify (SHOP) announced an integration that will allow Shopify merchants to offer "Buy with Prime" on their Shopify stores. Amazon (AMZN) rose 2.18% to $138.01, and Shopify (SHOP) jumped 10.8% to $66.49.

Salesforce.com (CRM) rose 2.99% to $221.46. The business-software developer reported better-than-expected second-quarter earnings.

European stocks closed mixed. The DAX 40 rose 0.35%, while the CAC 40 fell 0.65%, and the FTSE 100 declined 0.46%.

U.S. WTI crude futures gained $1.90 to $83.52 a barrel.

Gold price dropped $2 to $1,939 an ounce.

Market Wrap: Forex

The U.S. dollar index rebounded to 103.63.

EUR/USD fell 81 pips to 1.0842. The Eurozone's consumer prices grew 5.3% on year in August (vs +5.0% expected), and the jobless rate remained at 6.4% in July (as expected).

Germany's jobless rate edged up to 5.7% in August (as expected), and retail sales declined 0.8% on month in July (vs +0.3% expected).

France's inflation rate rebounded to 4.8% on year in August (vs 4.2% expected).

USD/JPY dropped 75 pips to 145.49. This morning, Japan's data showed that enterprises' capital spending increased 4.5% on year in the second quarter (vs +6.0% expected).

GBP/USD decreased 50 pips to 1.2671, while AUD/USD gained 7 pips to 0.6482.

USD/CHF climbed 52 pips to 0.8837, and USD/CAD added 18 pips to 1.3514.

Bitcoin plunged over 5% to $25,930 after the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) delayed a decision on whether to approve applications for spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETF) from various financial firms.

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The US dollar is forecasted to maintain its strength through the end of 2023, despite traditional weakness in the November-December period. This strength is driven by US macro outperformance and a hawkish Federal Reserve. High US rates, described as risk-negative events, are positively influencing the dollar while adversely affecting pro-cyclical currencies in Europe and Asia.

Despite these trends, softer US macro data could potentially lead to a weaker dollar. However, significant shifts due to Chinese or European growth re-ratings are seen as unlikely. Notably, high US rates causing disruptions in the financial sector could result in a brief surge in dollar value due to tightened funding conditions.
Year-end forecasts anticipate the EUR/USD exchange rate at around 1.05/1.06 and USD/JPY nearing 150. Yet, these predictions are not without significant threats. A looming Eurozone recession struggles to revive the Stability and Growth Pact, and potential geopolitical disruptions causing an oil price hike could impact the expected rise of EUR/USD to 1.10 by next summer and 1.15 by the close of 2024.

A slowdown in the US economy is predicted in the upcoming quarter, which could lead to currency predictions being revised. As we transition into 2024, a drop in the short end of the US economic curve is foreseen ahead of anticipated Fed easing next summer. This could result in Dollar depreciation, but it's unlikely to relinquish its gains before this year concludes.


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Market Wrap: Stocks, Bonds, Commodities

On Tuesday, U.S. stocks saw volatile trading and closed mixed. The Dow Jones Industrial Average eased 79 points (-0.22%) to 36,124, the S&P 500 dipped 2 points (-0.06%) to 4,567, while the Nasdaq 100 rose 38 points (+0.24%) to 15,877.

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield sank a further 8.8 basis points to 4.165%, the lowest level since September.

U.S. Labor Department reported that job openings fell to 8.73 million in October (vs 9.40 million expected), the lowest level since early 2021.

The U.S. Institute for Supply Management (ISM) services purchasing managers index rose to 52.7 in November (vs 51.5 expected).

Telecoms services (+1.74%), technology hardware & equipment (+1.60%), and automobiles & components (+0.89%) stock sectors gained the most in the session, while household & personal products (-3.05%), energy (-1.70%), and materials (-1.37%) sectors underperformed the market.

Nvidia (NVDA) rebounded 2.32%, Apple (AAPL) bounced 2.11%, while Amazon.com (AMZN), Tesla (TSLA) and Alphabet (GOOGL) were all up over 1%.

CVS Health (CVS) gained 3.71%. The healthcare company gave a better-than-expected sales outlook for 2024, and raised its quarterly dividend by about 10%.

Robinhood Markets (HOOD) jumped 10.26%. The stock trading application developer reported that crypto trading volume increased 75% on month in November.

On the other hand, Procter & Gamble (PG) fell 3.49%. The household products company said it could record after-tax charges of up to $2.5 billion due to restructuring and impairment.

Charter Communications (CHTR) dropped 8.70%, Albemarle Corp (ALB) slid 5.60%, Goldman Sachs (GS) fell 2.19%, and Walt Disney (DIS) was down 1.33%.

In Europe, the DAX 40 rose 0.78%, the CAC 40 gained 0.74%, while the FTSE 100 declined 0.31%.

U.S. WTI crude oil futures fell $0.51 (-0.70%) to 72.53 a barrel.

Gold price retreated a further $9 (-0.49%) to $2,019 an ounce.

Market Wrap: Forex

The U.S. dollar index climbed to 103.95.

EUR/USD dropped 37 pips to 1.0799. Eurozone data showed that producer prices fell 9.4% on year in October (vs -9.5% expected).

USD/JPY dipped 6 pips to 147.15.

GBP/USD declined 37 pips to 1.2596.

AUD/USD dropped 69 pips to 0.6551. As widely expected, the Reserve Bank of Australia kept its key interest rate unchanged at 4.35%.

This morning, Australia's data showed that gross domestic product grew 0.2% on quarter in the third quarter (vs +0.4% expected).

USD/CHF rose 21 pips to 0.8749, and USD/CAD gained 56 pips to 1.3593.

USD/CNH jumped 249 pips to 7.1734. Ratings agency Moody's cut its outlook on China's government credit ratings to "negative" from "stable".

Bitcoin continued to see pumping after surpassing the $40,000 level, running up to $45,000 this morning.

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MARKET WRAP: STOCKS, BONDS, COMMODITIES


On Wednesday, U.S. stocks closed lower. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 70 points (-0.19%) to 36,054, the S&P 500 dropped 17 points (-0.39%) to 4,549, and the Nasdaq 100 was down 89 points (-0.56%) to 15,788.

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield lost a further 5.7 basis points to 4.108%.

The ADP employment report showed that the economy added 103,000 private jobs in November (vs +125,000 expected).

Energy (-1.64%), semiconductors (-1.44%), and software & services (-0.94%) sectors underperformed the most during the trading session.

Nvidia (NVDA) retreated 2.28% again, Amazon.com (AMZN) fell 1.61%, and Microsoft (MSFT) was down 1.00%.

NIO (NIO) rose 4.31%. The Chinese electric-vehicle maker plans to spin off its battery production unit, according to Reuters.

Tobacco majors Philip Morris International (PM) fell 1.56%, and Altria Group (MO) dropped 2.84%, as London-listed British American Tobacco reported a $31.5 billion write-down in the value of some U.S. cigarette brands.

Box Inc (BOX) sank 10.19%. The cloud content management platform's quarterly earnings missed expectations.

Block Inc (SQ) rose 4.79%. The online payment company was maintained at "overweight" at Barclays.

Plug Power (PLUG) declined 5.90%. The hydrogen fuel cell maker was downgraded to "underweight" at Morgan Stanley.

European stocks closed higher, with the DAX 40 rising 0.75%, the CAC 40 up 0.66%, and the FTSE 100 up 0.34%.

U.S. WTI crude oil futures tumbled $3.16 (-4.37%) to $69.16 a barrel, the lowest level since June.

U.S. data showed that gasoline stock-piles rose 5.4 million barrels, much more than an addition of 1.03 million barrels analysts expected.

Gold price gained $5 to $2,024 an ounce.


MARKET WRAP: FOREX


The U.S. dollar held up well against other major currencies, as the dollar index stepped up to 104.18.

USD/CAD edged up 2 pips to 1.3594. As widely expected, Canada's central bank kept its key interest rate unchanged at 5.00%.

Also, Canada's Ivey purchasing managers index rose to 54.7 in November (vs 53.5 expected).

EUR/USD lost 33 pips to 1.0764. The Eurozone's retail sales grew 0.1% on month in October (vs +0.3% expected).

Germany's factory orders fell 3.7% on month in October (vs +0.1% expected).

USD/JPY gained 20 pips to 147.35.

GBP/USD fell 37 pips to 1.2558.

AUD/USD dipped 3 pips to 0.6549. This morning, Australia's data showed that trade surplus widened to A$7.13 billion in October with exports growing 0.4% on month.

USD/CHF was little changed at 0.8749.

Bitcoin slipped below the $44,000 handle.

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