Satu antara faktor mengapa pasaran hartanah Hong Kong tidak jatuh terjejas

[Ms Senorita]

HONG KONG (16 Jan): Pameran flat Downton 38 di Pusat beli-belah APM Millennium City, Hong Kong menyebabkan pengunjung beratur panjang menghampiri pintu dan sekitar sudut sepanjang hujung minggu pembukaannya. Kemerosotan hartanah global yang melanda Hong Kong pada bulan Ogos seolah-olah tidak menghalang bakal pemilik rumah.

"Prospek ekonomi tidak begitu baik," kata Leo Wong, seorang eksekutif ekuiti swasta berusia 35 tahun, menunggu dalam barisan, risalah di satu tangan dan anak kecil di belakangnya. "Tetapi jika anda membeli rumah untuk sendiri, ia bukan satu masalah."

Seperti kebanyakan keluarga di Hong Kong yang pesat, Wong mencari apartmen yang lebih besar, walaupun dia menjangka harga akan terus jatuh. Dan Hong Kong dikaitkan aliran tunai yang banyak selepas kejatuhan pasaran saham tahun lepas - kuasa beli terhad yang diramalkan oleh beberapa penganalisis akan menghalang pasaran hartanah paling mahal di dunia daripada jatuh menjunam lebih jauh lagi.

"Masih ada lebihan wang, ia semudah itu," kata Nicole Wong, Ketua Penyelidikan Hartanah di Brokerage CLSA Ltd. Rekod bank yang tinggi mencadangkan penduduk mempunyai keupayaan untuk membuat pembelian rumah jika mereka mahu, katanya.

Walaupun tidak setinggi Singapura, Hong Kong menawarkan kadar tabungan isi rumah yang agak wajar. Angka Bank Dunia meletakkan paras simpanan kasar pada 27% pada 2017, lebih berbanding 23% Perancis, Kanada pada 20% dan UK pada 13%.

Projek-projek baru dengan harga yang kompetitif juga menimbulkan minat pembeli, dengan harapan dijangka kenaikan pada kadar faedah, kata Patrick Wong, seorang penganalisis hartanah dengan Bloomberg Intelligence. "Apabila kadar faedah stabil, 'hold back buyer' berkemungkinan dengan kenaikan harga akan ditarik balik ke pasaran," katanya.

China Overseas Land & Investment Ltd menerima lebih daripada 7,500 permohonan bagi 486 unit untuk dijual di Projek Perumahan Regent di Daerah Tai Po, Hong Kong awal bulan ini. Program-program kerajaan untuk menyediakan "rumah pertama" - pangsapuri murah yang bertujuan membantu golongan muda mendapatkan tangga harta - dan rumah-rumah bersubsidi yang lain juga luar dari permintaan.

Walaupun kebanyakan peniaga pasaran menjangkakan harga rumah jatuh merudum - mereka turun hampir 9% dari Ogos - Citigroup Inc melihat tanda-tanda kenaikan harga dalam tempoh dua bulan akan datang apabila pembeli mula menunjukkan permintaan yang tinggi, dan Morgan Stanley menjangkakan kenaikan pada 2% tahun ini kerana alasan yang sama.

Ramai penduduk menganggap memiliki rumah sebagai keutamaan, dan sanggup memperuntukkan sebahagian besar pendapatan mereka untuk mencapainya. Menurut tokoh-tokoh dari brokerage mortgage MReferral Brokerage Services, pemilik rumah memperuntukkan hampir 60% pendapatan bulanan mereka untuk membayar perjanjian jual-beli hutang mereka.

Ibu bapa juga melakukan segala yang mereka mampu untuk membantu generasi muda, menyedari bahawa pemilikan rumah adalah penunjuk kejayaan dan kestabilan.

"Saya telah melihat banyak kes di mana ibu bapa membayar sejumlah wang yang besar bagi pembayaran deposit untuk anak-anak mereka," kata Robbie Wong, agen hartanah Qfang.com. Anak-anak biasanya tinggal di rumah keluarga mereka sebelum itu, katanya.

Dengan pemaju dijangka terus mengenakan harga rendah bagi projek mereka, dari itu menurunkan nilai di pasaran sekunder, pembeli akan terus membeli, menurut Colliers International Group Inc.

"Apabila kami bertanya, semua pelanggan kami berkata 'kami sedang menunggu masa yang tepat,' 'kata Ketua Penilaian dan Khidmat Nasihat Hannah Jeong.


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One reason why Hong Kong's property market won't collapse

HONG KONG (Jan 16): A Downtown 38 show flat on display in Hong Kong’s APM Millennium City shopping mall had a queue snaking out the door and around the corner on its opening weekend. The global property downturn that infected Hong Kong in August didn’t seem to deter would-be homeowners.

“The economic outlook isn’t very promising,” Leo Wong, a 35-year-old private equity executive said as he waited in line, pamphlet in one hand and toddler in tow. “But if you’re buying a home for your own use, that doesn’t matter much.”

Like many families in crowded Hong Kong, Wong is looking for a bigger apartment, even though he expects prices to keep falling. And Hong Kongers are relatively flush with cash even after last year’s stock market rout — pent-up buying power that some analysts say will prevent the world’s most expensive property market from sliding much further.

“There’s still a lot of money, it’s as simple as that,” said Nicole Wong, the regional head of property research at brokerage CLSA Ltd. Record-high bank deposits suggest residents have the ability to make home purchases if they want, she said.

While not as high as Singapore, Hong Kong boasts an enviable household savings rate. World Bank figures put the gross savings level at 27% in 2017, more than France’s 23%, Canada at 20% and the UK at 13%.

New projects with competitive pricing have also piqued buyers’ interest, along with an expected breather in interest-rate increases, according to Patrick Wong, a real estate analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence. “As interest rates stabilize, buyers who were held back by potential hikes are drawn back to the market,” he said.

China Overseas Land & Investment Ltd received more than 7,500 applications for the 486 units for sale at its Regent residential project in Hong Kong’s Tai Po district earlier this month. Government programs to provide “starter homes” — cheap apartments aimed at helping young people get on the property ladder — and other subsidized dwellings have been similarly oversubscribed.

While most market watchers expect home prices to fall further — they’re down almost 9% from their August peak — Citigroup Inc sees signs of prices bottoming in the next two months as buyers begin to unleash pent-up demand, and Morgan Stanley says to expect a 2% rise this year for the same reason.

Many residents consider owning a home a top priority, and are willing to set aside a large chunk of their income to achieve it. According to figures from mortgage brokerage MReferral Brokerage Services, homeowners are forking out close to 60% of their monthly income to service their mortgage debt.

Parents are also doing everything they can to help the younger generation, mindful that home ownership is an indicator of success and stability.

“I’ve seen a lot of cases where parents pay a large sum for a down payment for their kids,” said Robbie Wong, a property agent with Qfang.com. The children typically lived at home with their families before that, he said.

With developers expected to continue to price their projects low, thus bringing down values in the secondary market, buyers will continue to be brought back in, according to Colliers International Group Inc.

“When we ask around, all our clients say ‘we’re waiting for the right timing’,” said Hannah Jeong, Colliers’ head of valuation and advisory services.
 
Sumber : theedgemarkets

 

[Vondereich]

ada lg ke hartanah menurun ? mana ada