Rosentray's Daily Commentary

[rosentray]

The Yen has been going down against all its peers lately. The EUR/YEN pair is rallying since mid-April when price was a bit below 115. Then the French elections gave some boost to the Euro causing the pair to gap open in the end of April.

Currently, EUR/YEN is trading at 124.20 and although it made a minor move down yesterday, bulls have successfully managed to put it back up to the latest high at 124.50.

If the last high is broken, the pair would most likely continue to first bull target at 125.00. It is expected that bears will try to take control over it and make a corrective wave which could cause the pair to reduce in price to first probable target at 120.00.

The pair has made a great rally going about 1000 points in less than a month. Currently, the levels are a decisive factor for the future progress of the pair.

 

[rosentray]

USD/CAD is having a strong rally that started since the pair was at support at 1.32249 just about a month ago. Today, the pair is 1.3714, marking a bull run with close to 500 points movement. Main trend on the short-term is expected to stay bullish if bulls manage to climb above the resistance at 1.38, which could be considered a double top.

On the other hand, bears might attempt to push the price down to first support zone at 1.36, second support zone at 1.3210, and major support zone at 1.30.

If they get above 1.38, then first target level is eyed at 1.3860. Technically, the pair is now in its highest point since February 2016 when the pair dived with more than 2500 points from 1.48 to below 1.25.

Partially, the appreciation of the pair is due to the depreciation of the Canadian dollar. Although, the US dollar also had its weak points recently, the USD bulls were able to sustain the momentum in the pair and keep it going up.

 

[rosentray]

GBP/JPY is currently hesitating whether it should continue its move to the upside. The pair rallied from 135.60 in mid-April to a high of 148 last week. Since then, the Sterling has been taking a breather doing some correction moves and consolidation around the level of 146.70.

If the continuation continues with hints of going to the upside, first potential target is seen at 148.50, which forms a double top. If that level does not hold the bulls, second and stronger level is 150.

Well above the 200SMA, GBP/JPY has a strong momentum to the upside as the bull camp seems determined to push it higher.

The corrective wave might be expected to continue until tomorrow when the UK will release the GBP Core CPI and CPI data.

 

[rosentray]

In the last few days we have been witnessing the ascent of Gold as the precious metal registered a climb from a low of $1,214 to a high of $1,245. The latest was made in the early trading hours of the Asian session today and now price is slightly lower at $1,242.

With the depreciation of the US dollar, traders and investors have eyed the precious metals as diversification and safe haven. Bulls are in control currently as Gold is trading in the ascending trading channel on the medium term. First bull target is seen at $1,257 and major for the short-term is $1,275. Above that, Gold would be exposed to the bullish momentum away from the noise below $1,300.

If, however, the US dollar starts to climb again we may see a retreat from the Gold market which could substantially lower Gold's price. Support is seen at $1,220.

Silver is also in the green this week as price advanced from $16,04 to a high of $16.96.

 

[rosentray]

USD/JPY appears to have discontinued the short-term upside trend as price decreased from last week's high of 114.26 to today's low of 110.48. Despite the rapid drop in price, the USD/JPY pair remains in its uptrend long-term channel that started in the end of June last year.

Currently, USD/JPY is trading at 111.17 and it seems that bears will try to test the support level resting slightly below the 200SMA at 108.40.

No major news are expected today so market participants might rely solely on technicals and price behavior in order for them to make investing and trading decisions.

Tomorrow fundamentals are also not playing a role so we can expect a silent consolidation around current levels.

 

[rosentray]

Gold has been trading in an uptrend for the past three weeks. The upward move started on May 9 when price was around $1,220. Since then, the precious metal has climbed to a high of $1,269.16 as bulls reacted strongly to the support taking advantage of the low volume and lack of selling.

Currently, Gold is trading at $1,267, a bit lower than its highest reach last week. If bulls continue on their way North, immediate resistance rests at $1,273, along a downward trendline that started in the middle of July 2016. If that level is broken, then major bull target is the $1,300 psychological level.

On the other hand, a failure to push price above the resistance would result in bears taking control over the Gold market with the intention to drag the price down and reverse the trend with first potential target at $1,245 and major target $1,230.

 

[rosentray]

USD/CHF has been trading in a very choppy environment lately as the pair recently reached a low of 0.9691 on May 22. Now the pair is trading at 0.9765 marking a day of high volatility as price fluctuates between 0.9745 and 0.9808.

On the long term, the good news for the bulls is that the pair is back into the descending trading channel and a move to the upside might be expected. For the short term, however, price remains very unstable as market participants are now in a dispute who is going to take control over it.

If we can get a close inside the channel, we might expect the pair to gain momentum and start climbing towards first bull target at 0.9825.

If bears push the price down, first potential target would be the last low of 0.9690 and major bear target around 0.9550.

 

[rosentray]

USD/CHF is trading below resistance ever since it passed the level of 0.9800. The pair has been outside the upward trading channel and looks like bulls would need strong support from fundamentals so that price could start to rise again.

Today's data will most likely have a big impact on all US pairs as we are anticipating the most important release of the month, i.e. the Jobs and NFP report.

Yesterday's initial jobless claims turned out to be higher than expected but that did not have any significant impact on the pair.

If today's news are in favor of the US dollar, we will probably see the USD/CHF return to the trading channel above 0.98. If not, the downside potential expands to a target below 0.9650.

 

[rosentray]

AUD/JPY has been posting relatively mixed signals since late May as price fluctuated around 82.44. The pair consolidated around those levels with a low of 81.89 which happened to be outside the medium-term downtrend trading channel. Bears, however, couldn't sustain the momentum.

The pair is now back to the consolidation levels currently trading at 82.46, but the positive thing about the AUD bulls is that price is now back into the trading channel. This could mean that market participants might now endorse the idea to go North to first potential target at 84.00.

Should this level be reached, major bull target is seen at 85. The Australian dollar will need a lot of bull power to go to the other end of the trend. Important data is scheduled for tomorrow - RBA Interest Rate Decision (Jun) and that might give the pair certainty in direction.

 

[rosentray]

EUR/NZD's price is currently sitting back at the 1.57000 support. We also have the ascending trendline close to price. We are watching this pair to see whether price gets rejected back by bullish buying momentum or breaks through by bearish sentiment. Today's candle doesn't indicate a rejection from support however, has held above. We will continue to watch the daily candle closes within his pair.

In order for bullish trend to continue, price needs to bounce off 1.56 level. Major bull target is seen at 1.63 which is the upper trendline in the long-term ascending channel.

On the other hand, if price breaks key level 1.56, we might be in for bearish continuation and potential major bear target at 1.47.

No news are scheduled for today for either pair which could mean that we are in for a calm day with low volatility and technical trading.