Rosentray's Daily Commentary

[rosentray]

GBP/USD is trading relatively unchanged after prime minister Theresa May triggered Article 50 yesterday. The initial step of the two-year process has been taken and now Brexit is officially confirmed.

Article 50 gives both the UK and the EU two years to reach agreement, meaning that the UK will leave on 29 March 2019, unless the sides agree to extend the period.

The GBP/USD pair reacted somehow neutral with a low of 1.2374, down from 1.2480 and currently trading at 1.2425.

As it turns out, the Art 50 triggering was a non-event, partially because market participants already knew about it and it did not come as a surprise. What happens next will determine how big of an impact will the process have on the UK economy and the UK currency.

 

[rosentray]

EUR/USD is trading lower in today's session currently at 1.0737. The pair seems to be losing ground as the US dollar is again gaining strength. First bear target is seen at 1.0700.

 

[rosentray]

EUR/USD is trading relatively unchanged today. The pair consolidated around 1.07 and currently trading at 1.0690. The weekly closing price is expected to be around current levels as no more news are anticipated.

 

[rosentray]

USD/JPY depreciated from 112.20 to a low of 111.54 and is currently trading at 111.56. The pair faced resistance and bears were able to bring it down. Main trend on the short-term has shifted from bullish to bearish.

 

[rosentray]

EUR/USD is trading lower today, current market price 1.0647. The pair seems to be losing ground. If bears manage to push it below prior pivot point at CMP, immediate support will fail and next level would be 1.0580.

 

[rosentray]

Gold is having a volatile Monday with open price at $1,246, a low of $1,244 and currently trading at its highest - $1,252. The precious metal is trying to beat the odds and had a very strong first quarter despite the many analysts and market experts who predicted that the US dollar will push down the price of Gold.

Since the start of 2017, Gold is up about 8.70%, or just a bit over $100. Gold opened at $1,150 and had it's high in the end of February at $1,264. Main trend on the short term remains strongly bullish. First level bulls need to take care of is $1,265, then comes $1,290.

Bears will use the opportunity to sell at $1,265 which means that the same is a good short entry. Bears major target is the 38.2% Fibo at $1,210.

 

[rosentray]

EUR/USD had some bad days recently as price went down with more than 250 points in the last couple of weeks. The pair went from 1.09 to a low of 1.0635 in a matter of a few days due to strong data coming out of the US. Also, technicals played a significant role as the pair circulated around the 200SMA. Bulls were unsuccessful in their attempt to go beyond it and bears took over.

The pair hit the prior pivot point at it's lowest today and was immediately backed up by the bulls who took the chance to go long and buy the dip. Price is now 1.0655 and has a good chance to continue up for the short term.

However, if bears break the support at 1.0630, the pair will most likely be vulnerable and this will increase the chances for it to go South.

 

[rosentray]

NZD/USD is having a hard time recently trying to keep up within the upward trending channel on the long term outlook. The pair reached support in the beginning of March at 0.6955 and went below the channel. Then somehow it managed to get back in sharply. Unfortunately for the bulls, the pair was inconsistent and started trading sideways until it gave up.

Today, the pair broke the support level again, indicating that the move to the downside may not be over. Price is now 0.6975 and the bearish momentum continues to gain strength.

First bear target is seen at latest low at 0.6885, while bulls' target is to get back in the trend. The economic US news this week might give a hint on the direction of the pair.

 

[rosentray]

GBP/USD is not showing any clear signs indicating where it will head next. After Article 50 was triggered, the pair did not react in any way thus causing traders and investors to guesswork their direction.

What actually happened after Art 50 was a consolidation in a narrow channel between 1.2570 and 1.2370. The pair is now trading at 1.2482, right in between the upper and lower trading line.

Major bull target is seen at 1.2670, while major bear target rests at 1.2040. Today's GBP news turned out to be positive for the UK and that reflected in appreciation of the pair, but only mildly. Sterling bulls will need something stronger in order for them to power through and reclaim their level above 1.27.

 

[rosentray]

EUR/USD continues to trade sideways with price gravitating towards 1.0670. This week's events will probably give a direction to the pair.