Rosentray's Daily Commentary

[rosentray]

GBP/USD has been in consolidation ahead of activating the never-before-used article 50 that triggers a two year process of a country's decision to leave the European union. The UK prime minister, Theresa May, is expected to start the divorce this month.

The resolutions that will come out of the talks will, to a large extent, determine the future of the United Kingdom. All of this is being reflected in the GBP/USD pair as price has been trading around 1.2150-1.22 for the last few days.

There isn't a certain date when Article 50 will be triggered, so market participants are waiting in anticipation. The low volumes are expected to continue until we have something on the table.

Main support is seen at 1.20 while main resistance is way up at 1.27.

 

[rosentray]

EUR/USD is trading steadily in the early European hours today with price around 1.0540. First support is seen at 1.0532, while first resistance is seen at 1.06.

 

[rosentray]

EUR/USD continues to hover around 1.06 as market participants are expecting the latest NFP and jobs data. Price is expected to consolidate around current levels until the news release later today.

 

[rosentray]

Gold keeps going South as price has now gone below 1.5-month low at $1,196. Now it appears that the future of the precious metal could be determined by the Federal Reserve's decision to raise the interest rates. If next week the Fed does just that, Gold would most likely get hit harder. If not, Gold can hold up.

Today Gold went below the psychological level of $1,200 as bears did not even face a hint of resistance. Immediate support rests at $1,193, the Fib level of 61.8 falls on $1,176 and major support is $1,142.

If Gold is fortunate enough to stop at one of those levels, bull targets are seen at $1,230, $1,265 and $1,300.

It is also important to weigh Trump's policies as a factor that will likely shift the Fed's outlook.

 

[rosentray]

EUR/USD is trading to the upside in today's session after the pair started rallying in the end of last week. Price is now 1.0708 and market participants are expecting Mario Draghi's speech in Frankfurt later today.

 

[rosentray]

EUR/CAD made an impressive rally to the upside. The pair has been trading with high volumes going higher and higher from the last week of February until now. Price back then was 1.3800 and the Canadian dollar is now trading at 1.4404 for a Euro.

What's interesting to notice is that the price has now reached a double bottom with the latest high at this level made in the end of November last year.

If price manages to power through the resistance level, bulls will have the upper hand in the trade with less obstacles in the way.

If, however, bears are able to halt the trend and turn it around, price might revisit prior support zones, the first of which is seen at 1.4220.

Have in mind that today's speech of ECB President Mario Draghi might have a high impact on the pair.

 

[rosentray]

EUR/USD is now trading at 1.0638 in anticipation of tomorrow's US CPI and Retails Sales. The continuation of consolidation is expected to continue until the news release.

 

[rosentray]

GBP/JPY continues to trade sideways with price fluctuating between 141.00 and 138.00. The pair entered into consolidation due to lack of fresh news that could drive investors and traders to either side.

Market participants are expecting the UK prime minister, Theresa May, to trigger article 50 this month and this is adding strength to the state of consolidation. Market sentiment remains bearish as price has been coming down from its 2015 high of 195.00.

Since then the market has been in a downtrend with a low of 122.40. Currently, the pair is trading at 139.80 in a predominantly bearish environment.

First support zone is seen at latest low around 138.00, first resistance is seen at 140.65. Bears need to close below 138.00 for the bearish trend to gain new momentum, while bulls need a close above 145.

 

[rosentray]

EUR/USD is now trading at 1.0629 ahead of important US data to be released - CPI and Retail Sales. First support is now 1.06, first res 1.0655.

 

[rosentray]

GBP/USD reached a high of 1.2256 in the early trading hours of today's session. The pair moved sharply higher from yesterday's low of 1.2105 and is now trading at 12230. Partially, the climb is influenced by today's vote in the Netherlands and on the other hand, the uncertainty that comes with triggering Article 50 this month. Obviously, some market participants are optimistic about the independent near-term future of the United Kingdom.

The spike, however, might prove to be short-lived as market often make what may seem like irrational moves ahead of important events. This might be regarded as a correction before the pair continues to move to the downside.

Major support is seen at 1.2000, while major resistance it seen at 1.2570.