Rosentray's Daily Commentary

[rosentray]

EUR/USD reached a high of 1.0640 and is now trading close to intraday high at 1.0633. The pair made a move to the upside today and yesterday and now first resistance is seen at 1.0670.

 

[rosentray]

USD/JPY continued to trade in the descending channel on the short-term outlook. The pair registered a high of 114.92 earlier this week and is now trading at 113.70. The downtrend appears to be intact as market participants chose to follow the pattern and stay in the channel.

In light of this, if the scenario plays out, we should see the pair reach the lower line of the channel before long. What would aid the process is negative US fundamentals. If the fundamentals are in favor of the pattern, price should reach below 112.00.

On the other hand, US dollar bulls are ready to take it higher with the support of positive fundamentals. Until the end of the week, no major news are scheduled, except the US initial jobless claims that would be released tomorrow.

 

[rosentray]

EUR/USD reached a high of 1.0680 earlier today and is now trading at 1.0650. Important news are scheduled for later today.

 

[rosentray]

GBP/JPY reacted strongly to fundamentals today and reached a low of 139.62. The pair is now trading at 140.25 as the predominant bullish trend looks broken. A move to the downside can be expected.

 

[rosentray]

USD/PLN is trading to the upside since the beginning of February this year with price going from 3.9776 to a high of 4.0877. The pair is in a bull rally due to weak Polish fundamentals and respectively strong data coming from the US. Dollar bulls may try to bring it up to a first target at 4.1122. In that case, they would have to go through immediate resistance at 4.08.

On the other hand, Polish bulls have a slight advantage in current market environment due to the immediate resistance and weak volumes. They could push it down to major target of 3.9300. Bears have to go through a few support levels namely 4.0370, 3,9740.

The long-term trend remains bullish, the short-term is still bearish until we can get above 4.2800.

 

[rosentray]

GBP/NZD opened the European session higher in comparison to last weeks levels. The pair reached an intraday high at current market price of 1.7372 and is now facing immediate resistance. The Sterling had a bad week last week when it depreciated against major opponents.

Now, the British currency appears to be gaining trust again. GBP/NZD is reacting bullishly to market conditions and now eyes are on first resistance level at 1.7480. Major bull target rests at 1.7710.

On the other hand, Sterling bears might attempt to bring it down below last week's level and close at 1.72. Major bear target is seen at 1.6895.

 

[rosentray]

Silver is trading to the downside in today's session. The precious metal reached a low of 17.83 as an intraday low and is now trading at 17.88. Main trend on the short-term remains bullish and today's depreciation might be regarded as a correction before the move continues higher.

A factor that could be in favor of the continuation of the bullish move is the 200SMA and more specifically the fact that current market price is being supported by it. If price manages to stay above the 200SMA we might see improved bullish confidence in the metal and witness a move higher.

First bull target is seen at 18.50, major bull target is 19.80.

 

[rosentray]

Gold bugs are having a time out today as the precious metal is decreasing in price due to a sharp upward move in the US dollar. Gold reached a low of $1,227 and is now trading at $1,230. Although the precious metal is down today, the bullish move remains intact.

Gold started to appreciate when it reached a low of $1,121 in December last year and went as high as $1,244 just a few days ago in the beginning of February this year.

Market sentiment remains bullish and we can expect the momentum to keep pushing the price up to a possible first target of $1,250, second important price level is the 200SMA which falls on $1,260 and major bull target is seen at $1,380.

On the other hand, if bears take control, price is expected to revisit first support at $1,200, second at $1,180 and third and major support at $1,130.

 

[rosentray]

EUR/USD is trading below support in the preopening hours of the European session. The pair is now 1.0522 as it went below the support at 1.0540 yesterday. Euro bulls now have the task to bring the price up from current level which also happens to be a non-validated double bottom on the short-term. If they succeed, then price should be back in the uptrend channel sooner than later.

On the other hand, market participants are taking into consideration the upcoming FOMC minutes later today and that could have a drastic impact on the market, more specifically, the EUR/USD pair.

Until then, market could continue to gravitate towards current levels. Major support rests at 1.0440, while major resistance is located at 1.0720.

 

[rosentray]

Gold is trading steady gravitating around $1,230 in anticipation of the latest FOMC meeting later today. Sharp moves can be expected.