Rosentray's Daily Commentary

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EUR/USD is trading lower in today's session after yesterday's attempt to push higher. The speech by ECB President Mario Draghi was the catalyst that drove the price down. Currently, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0538.

 

[rosentray]

Gold gave in to the bearish pressure that has been going on since yesterday's news that the ECB will continue its easy monetary policy. The strong dollar drive investors away from the safe haven and now Gold is trading below $1,160, currently at $1,159.

 

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Have in mind that the FED meeting on 13-14 Dec will decide whether or not the rates are going up. This would be one of the most anticipated events of the year. Until then the US dollar dominance is expected to continue.

 

[rosentray]

USD/CAD kept losing gains today as the pair reached a low of 1.3152. Bearish camp has taken control and now next target is 1.31. Main trend on the short term remains bearish, on the long term the latest move is seen as a correction to the upward trend.

 

[rosentray]

EUR/USD managed to pull through the bear attack that has been going on for the past days. In November the pair went from 1.13 to a low of 1.05 then in December it climbed to a high close to 1.09 and now is trading at 1.0565.

The bear attack is far from over as this latest correction might be preparation to put the pair even lower - possibly below multi year low below 1.04. If the Interest rate goes up on Wednesday then we might witness a continuation of the sell off move and visit levels below 1.04.

However, it is possible that the move is already over and even if we get a raise we might not see a decline in price as the depreciation already happened.

Whatever the case, Wednesday will be the day where we find out the potential EUR/USD level for the year end.

 

[rosentray]

Gold is trading slightly above $1,160. The precious metal remains unchanged in price as traders and investors eye the last FOMC meeting for the year. On Wednesday it will become whether the rates are going up as volatility is expected to be high.

 

[rosentray]

The US dollar has come to a halt due to consolidation ahead of the FOMC Minutes tomorrow. The pair is now 1.0636 and as it appears, it will continue to trade in the range of 1.0670 - 1.0550.

 

[rosentray]

Gold is seeing its worst days since the beginning of the year. The precious metal has found support in February levels around $1,160. Price is now $1,160.57 and it seems that the metal will now consolidate ahead of one of the most important events of the year - the last FOMC meeting for 2016 which will determine whether the interest rate will raise.

Market participants are sure that the FED Chair Janet Yellen will raise rates and they acted on this belief by supporting the US dollar in its latest rally against all competitors. This means that if we really get a raise, as everyone expects, the move down might not even happen as it did with the last interest rate raise - the US dollar did not do anything when the news came out.

The best thing you can do, as advised by all experts, is to not trade the news. This is important in such times as these where the uncertainty globally and locally in the US is the main environment for the market.

Analysts and experts predicted before the last raise that a Yes vote will put an end to all bullish hopes for Gold, but 2016 proved that the opposite actually happened.

 

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EUR/USD Awaits Key Meeting
Market participants are now anticipating the latest FOMC Meeting that will decide if the rates go up. It's considered by some that this is a "done deal" and the interest rate will hike with 0.25 basis points. EUR/USD already is rallying as well as US equities. Yesterday the Dow posted a record breaker when it reached 19,956.
With Dow closing in on 20,000 and the US dollar approaching parity with the Euro many experts now say that the FED does not actually have a choice and it's mandatory to raise rates.
The result will be publicly announced at 2pm eastern time as market players are currently on hold with their trading waiting on the decision.
EUR/USD posted minor gains yesterday as it reached 1.0660 and is now trading at 1.0649. It is expected that price will continue trading in the same range until the news release.
Have in mind that volatility may be high and any exposure to markets poses a risk to your capital. Play it safe today and don't act based on emotions.

 

[rosentray]

USD/JPY appears to be on hold at the moment as price has approached key level at 116.00. The pair might consolidate until the FED releases its decision to raise or not to raise the interest rate. CMP 115.13.