Regular Bearish Divergence AUD/NZD

[DannyBly]

Price having broken out from the trend channel as shown on the daily chart continues to make higher highs. Meanwhile RSI has been making lower highs, suggesting a possible trend reversal. Support should exist along the upper trend channel line (formerly resistance).

Analysis By TradersLog.com

 

[raw rookie]

ok, now i get it

 

[MDunleavy]

A drop below 1.24 is possible near term.

A drop below 1.24 is possible near term.

 

[MDunleavy]

Review AUDNZD

P&F AUDNZD15 Box Size 10X4 or(0.33%) HI/LO
Data 1.2365 - 1.2112 ~ 1 Month ~ 34.85 Day
Database 1501 records 1.22417 (Last Close)
2009-08-14 12~15
2009-09-18 08~45 (GMT+01:00) Paris

BJF Trading Group

1.2370|~1O|||____________________________________________________|-0.04%|2.13%
1.2360|~2O|||x___________________________________________________|0.04%|2.05%
1.2350|~3O|||__o_________________________________________________|0.12%|1.96%
1.2340|~4O|||__o_________________________________________________|0.2%|1.88%
1.2330|~5O|||__o_________________________________________________|0.28%|1.8%
1.2320|~6O|||__o_________x___x___________________________________|0.36%|1.72%
1.2310|~7O|||__o_________x_o_x_o_________________________________|0.44%|1.63%
1.2300|~8O|||__o_x_______x_o_x_o_________________x_______________|0.53%|1.55%
1.2290|~9O|||__o_x_o_x___x_o_x_o_________________x_o_x___________|0.61%|1.47%
1.2280|~1OO||__o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_______________x_o_x_o_x_______|0.69%|1.39%
1.2270|~11O||__o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x___x_______x_o_x_o_x_o_x___|0.77%|1.3%
1.2260|~12O||__o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_____x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_|0.85%|1.22%
1.2250|~13O||__o___o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_____x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_|0.93%|1.14%
1.2240|~14O||______o___o___o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x___x_o_x_o___o_x_o_|1.01%|1.06%
1.2230|~15O||______________o_x_o_x_o_x_o___o_x_o_x_o_x_____o_x_o_|1.09%|0.97%
1.2220|~16O||______________o_x_o_x_o_x_____o_x_o_x_o_x_____o_x___|1.17%|0.89%
1.2210|~17O||______________o_x_o___o_x_____o_x_o_x_o_x_____o_____|1.25%|0.81%
1.2200|~18O||______________o_______o_x_____o_x_o_x_o_____________|1.33%|0.73%
1.2190|~19O||______________________o_______o_x_o_x_______________|1.42%|0.64%
1.2180|~2OO||______________________________o_x_o_________________|1.5%|0.56%
1.2170|~21O||______________________________o_x___________________|1.58%|0.48%
1.2160|~22O||______________________________o_x___________________|1.66%|0.4%
1.2150|~23O||______________________________o_x___________________|1.74%|0.31%
1.2140|~24O||______________________________o_x___________________|1.82%|0.23%
1.2130|~25O||______________________________o_x___________________|1.9%|0.15%
1.2120|~26O||______________________________o_____________________|1.98%|0.07%
1.2110|~27O||____________________________________________________|2.06%|-0.02%
Column|~28O||1_115_6_5_5_8_1212117_9_8_4_4_15126_12109_5_4_7_6_4_|
Count

 

[MDunleavy]

Today, the AUD/NZD reached a level close to its resistance at 1.2700. As you can see, this is the third time the market is trading around this point while it's still inside the bullish trend channel, which was established around the end of September. If the market doesn't break this level, it might return back towards the lower line of the channel and the support of around 1.2435[actionforex]

"P&F AUDNZD240 Box Size 35X5 or(1.41%) HI/LO
Data 1.2932 - 1.1925 ~ 8 Month ~ 244.83 Day
Database 1050 records 1.264 (Last Close)
2009-03-24 12~00
2009-11-24 08~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group chart"

1.2915|~35|||_____X________________|0.13%|8.3%
1.2880|~7O|||_____XoX______________|0.4%|8.01%
1.2845|~1O5||_____XoXo_____________|0.67%|7.71%
1.2810|~14O||_____XoXoX____________|0.94%|7.42%
1.2775|~175||_____XoXoXo___________|1.21%|7.13%
1.2740|~21O||___X_XoXoXo___________|1.48%|6.83%
1.2705|~245||___XoXoXoXo___________|1.76%|6.54%
1.2670|~28O||___XoXoXoXoX_______X_X|2.03%|6.25%
1.2635|~315||___XoXoXoXoXoX_____XoX|2.3%|5.95%
1.2600|~35O||___XoXoXoXoXoXo____XoX|2.57%|5.66%
1.2565|~385||___XoXo_oXoXoXo____XoX|2.84%|5.37%
1.2530|~42O||___XoX__oXoXoXo____XoX|3.11%|5.07%
1.2495|~455||___Xo___oXoXoXo____XoX|3.38%|4.78%
1.2460|~49O||___X____oXoXoXo____Xo_|3.65%|4.49%
1.2425|~525||_X_X____oXoXoXoX___X__|3.92%|4.19%
1.2390|~56O||oXoX____o_o_oXoXo__X__|4.19%|3.9%
1.2355|~595||oXoX________o_oXo__X__|4.46%|3.61%
1.2320|~63O||oXoX__________oXo__X__|4.73%|3.31%
1.2285|~665||oXoX__________oXo__X__|5%|3.02%
1.2250|~7OO||oXoX__________oXo__X__|5.27%|2.73%
1.2215|~735||oXoX__________oXoX_X__|5.54%|2.43%
1.2180|~77O||oXoX__________oXoXoX__|5.82%|2.14%
1.2145|~8O5||oXoX__________o_oXoX__|6.09%|1.84%
1.2110|~84O||oXoX____________oXoX__|6.36%|1.55%
1.2075|~875||o_oX____________oXoX__|6.63%|1.26%
1.2040|~91O||__o_____________oXoX__|6.9%|0.96%
1.2005|~945||________________o_oX__|7.17%|0.67%
1.1970|~98O||__________________oX__|7.44%|0.38%
1.1935|~1O15|__________________o___|7.71%|0.08%
1.1900|~1O5O|______________________|7.98%|-0.21%
Column|~1O85|1112711911189818168266|
Count|~112O||OO1O_2O_422___4_2__1__|





BJF-Trading-Group-091124_audnzd4h.xls

 

[MDunleavy]

As noted before, while European currencies are generally weak, AUD and NZD are relatively resilient so far. Comparing the two, NZD seems to be even stronger. Last week's sharp fall in AUD/NZD confirmed that rise fro 1.1925 has completed at 1.2836 already, on mild bearish divergence conditions in daily MACD and RSI. We'd anticipate deeper fall in the cross to 61.8% retracement of 1.1925 to 1.2836 at 1.2273 and possibly below. In other words, we'd expect Kiwi to outperform the Aussie in near term.[Written by actionforex]

"P&F AUDNZD1440 Box Size 80X5 or(3.42%) CLOSED
Data 1.2904 - 1.0463 ~ 91 Month ~ 2799 Day
Database 2002 records 1.24516 (Last Close)
2002-05-02 00~00
2009-12-30 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group chart"

1.2880|~8O|||____________________X__________|0.19%|23.1%
1.2800|~16O||____________________Xo__X_X____|0.81%|22.34%
1.2720|~24O||====================Xo==XoXo==X|1.43%|21.57%
1.2640|~32O||____________________Xo__XoXoX_X|2.05%|20.81%
1.2560|~4OO||____________________Xo__XoXoXoX|2.67%|20.04%
1.2480|~48O||____________________Xo__XoXoXoX|3.29%|19.28%
1.2400|~56O||______________X_____Xo__XoXoXoX|3.91%|18.51%
1.2320|~64O||____________X_Xo____Xo__XoXo_oX|4.53%|17.75%
1.2240|~72O||____________XoXo____XoX_XoX__oX|5.15%|16.98%
1.2160|~8OO||____________XoXo____XoXoXoX__oX|5.77%|16.22%
1.2080|~88O||____________XoXo____XoXoXo___oX|6.39%|15.45%
1.2000|~96O||============XoXo==X=XoXoX====o=|7.01%|14.69%
1.1920|~1O4O|_o__________XoXo__XoXoXoX______|7.63%|13.93%
1.1840|~112O|Xo__________XoXo__XoXo_oX______|8.25%|13.16%
1.1760|~12OO|XoX___X_____Xo_o__XoX__oX______|8.87%|12.4%
1.1680|~128O|_oXo__Xo____X__o__XoX__oX______|9.49%|11.63%
1.1600|~136O|_oXoX_Xo____X__oX_XoX__oX______|10.11%|10.87%
1.1520|~144O|_oXoXoXo____X__oXoXoX__oX______|10.73%|10.1%
1.1440|~152O|_oXoXoXo____X__oXoXoX__oX______|11.35%|9.34%
1.1360|~16OO|_o_oXoXo____X__oXoXoX__oX______|11.97%|8.57%
1.1280|~168O|___oXoXo____X__oXoXoX__oX______|12.59%|7.81%
1.1200|~176O|___oXoXo____X__o_oXo___oX______|13.21%|7.04%
1.1120|~184O|___oXoXo__X_X____oX____oX______|13.83%|6.28%
1.1040|~192O|___oXo_oX_XoX____oX____oX______|14.45%|5.51%
1.0960|~2OOO|___oX__oXoXoX____oX____oX______|15.07%|4.75%
1.0880|~2O8O|___oX__oXoXoX____o_____oX______|15.69%|3.99%
1.0800|~216O|___oX__oXoXoX__________o_______|16.31%|3.22%
1.0720|~224O|___oX__oXoXoX__________________|16.92%|2.46%
1.0640|~232O|___o___oXoXoX__________________|17.54%|1.69%
1.0560|~24OO|_______oXo_oX__________________|18.16%|0.93%
1.0480|~248O|_______o___oX__________________|18.78%|0.16%
1.0400|~256O|___________o___________________|19.4%|-0.6%
Column|~264O|2851179176792781591121512996489|
Count||~272O|___42__6____4__5__4O13_85______|




BJF-Trading-Group-AUDNZD_4h30min_091230.xls

 

[MDunleavy]

AUD/NZD extended the correction from 1.3210 and dipped to as low as 1.2873 so far. Some more down would possibly be seen in the cross in near term as correction extends further towards 50% retracement of 1.2408 to 1.3120 at 1.2764 and the development will possibly limit Aussie's gain against Dollar and Yen. Nevertheless, we'd expect the correction to end near to 1.2764 and by then Aussie will start to outperform Kiwi again.

"P&F AUDNZD1440 Box Size 90X5 or(3.82%) HI/LO
Data 1.3121 - 1.0432 ~ 92 Month ~ 2799 Day
Database 2001 records 1.29087 (Last Close)
2002-07-18 00~00
2010-03-17 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group chart"

1.3050|~9O|||______________________________________________x_|0.54%|25.1%
1.2960|~18O||__________________________x___________________x_|1.23%|24.23%
1.2870|~27O||__________________________x_o_________x___x___x_|1.91%|23.37%
1.2780|~36O||__________________________x_o_________x_o_x_o_x_|2.6%|22.51%
1.2690|~45O||__________________________x_o_________x_o_x_o_x_|3.28%|21.64%
1.2600|~54O||__________________________x_o_________x_o_x_o_x_|3.97%|20.78%
1.2510|~63O||__________________________x_o_________x_o_x_o_x_|4.66%|19.92%
1.2420|~72O||______________x___x_______x_o_________x_o_x_o_x_|5.34%|19.06%
1.2330|~81O||______________x_o_x_o_____x_o_________x_o_x_o_x_|6.03%|18.19%
1.2240|~9OO||______________x_o_x_o_____x_o_____x___x_o_x_o_x_|6.71%|17.33%
1.2150|~99O||______________x_o_x_o_____x_o_____x_o_x_o_x_o_x_|7.4%|16.47%
1.2060|~1O8O|______________x_o_x_o_x___x_o_____x_o_x_o___o_x_|8.09%|15.61%
1.1970|~117O|______________x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_____x_o_x_____o___|8.77%|14.74%
1.1880|~126O|______________x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_____x_o_x_________|9.46%|13.88%
1.1790|~135O|__x___x_______x_o___o_x_o_x_o_____x_o_x_________|10.14%|13.02%
1.1700|~144O|__x_o_x_o_____x_____o_x_o_x_o_____x_o___________|10.83%|12.15%
1.1610|~153O|o_x_o_x_o_____x_____o_x_o_x_o_____x_____________|11.52%|11.29%
1.1520|~162O|__x_o_x_o_____x_____o_x_o_x_o_____x_____________|12.2%|10.43%
1.1430|~171O|__x_o_x_o_____x_____o_x_o_x_o_x___x_____________|12.89%|9.57%
1.1340|~18OO|__x_o_x_o_____x_____o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_____________|13.57%|8.7%
1.1250|~189O|____o_x_o_____x_____o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_____________|14.26%|7.84%
1.1160|~198O|____o_x_o_x___x_____o_x_o___o_x_o_x_____________|14.95%|6.98%
1.1070|~2O7O|____o_x_o_x_o_x_____o_x_____o_x_o_x_____________|15.63%|6.12%
1.0980|~216O|____o_x_o_x_o_x_____o_______o_x_o_x_____________|16.32%|5.25%
1.0890|~225O|____o_x_o_x_o_x_____________o_x_o_______________|17%|4.39%
1.0800|~234O|____o_x_o_x_o_x_____________o_x_________________|17.69%|3.53%
1.0710|~243O|____o___o_x_o_x_____________o___________________|18.38%|2.66%
1.0620|~252O|________o_x_o_x_________________________________|19.06%|1.8%
1.0530|~261O|____________o_x_________________________________|19.75%|0.94%
1.0440|~27OO|____________o___________________________________|20.43%|0.08%
1.0350|~279O|________________________________________________|21.12%|-0.79%
Column|||||||1_6_1_1_1_7_8_2_7_7_1_1_1_2_2_8_6_1_6_1_9_9_1_1_|
Count|~297O||____2_2_3_____2_____6_2_0_0_5_____5___3_____0_2_|




BJF-Trading-Group_Excel_Chart