Antony_NPBFX
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USD/JPY: Bank of Japan Governor ready to continue "hawkish" monetary policy 02.12.2024
Good afternoon, dear forum visitors!
NPBFX offers the latest release of analytics on USD/JPY or a better understanding of the current market situation and more efficient trading.
Current trend
The USD/JPY pair is recovering from a sharp decline at the end of last week, when local lows from October 21 were updated. During the Asian session, quotes are testing 150.65 for a breakout, supported by technical factors and in anticipation of key macroeconomic statistics on the US labor market at the end of the week. Nonfarm Payrolls are expected to increase by 183.0 thousand in November after increasing by 12.0 thousand in the previous month, Average Hourly Earnings are expected to adjust to 0.3% from 0.4% on a monthly basis, and the Unemployment Rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.1%. In turn, Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is projected to rise in December from 71.8 points to 72.9 points. On Wednesday, at 15:15 (GMT+2), the US will see a report from Automatic Data Processing (ADP) on private sector employment, with forecasts suggesting a slowdown in November from 233.0 thousand to 165.0 thousand, and at 21:00 (GMT+2), the US Federal Reserve’s monthly economic review, the Beige Book, will be released.
Meanwhile, the yen is being supported by statements by Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda that the cost of borrowing may soon be raised from the current 0.25% at a meeting on December 18-19, since macroeconomic statistics are consistent with the regulator's expectations. For now, officials will focus on implementing plans to index import tariffs announced by US President-elect Donald Trump.
Japan released Tokyo-area inflation data for November on Friday, with the annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising sharply from 1.8% to 2.6%, while the CPI excluding Food and Energy rose from 1.8% to 2.2%. Investors also noted the growth in Retail Sales in October from 0.5% to 1.6%, which, however, turned out to be worse than the expected 2.2%, while Industrial Production in monthly terms increased from 1.6% to 3.0% with preliminary estimates of 3.9%. Corporate spending accelerated in the third quarter, suggesting robust domestic demand is underway as the country's economic recovery bolsters the case for further monetary tightening: capital spending rose to 8.1% from 7.4% year-on-year and was up 1.7% on a seasonally adjusted basis. The data that will be used to calculate the revised Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures will hit the market on December 9 and are likely to confirm the domestic economy's performance in line with the Bank of Japan's forecasts.
Support and resistance
On the daily chart, Bollinger Bands are sharply reversing downwards. The price range expands, making way to new local lows for the "bears". MACD is going down preserving a stable sell signal (located below the signal line). In addition, the indicator is trying to consolidate below the zero level. Stochastic, having approached its lows, is trying to reverse into an ascending plane, signaling in favor of the development of the "bullish" trend in the near future.
Resistance levels: 151.50, 152.22, 153.18, 153.87.
Support levels: 150.50, 150.00, 149.45, 148.24.
Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after a breakout of 151.50 with the target of 153.18. Stop-loss — 150.50. Implementation time: 2-3 days.
A rebound from 151.50 as from resistance, followed by a breakdown of 150.50 may become a signal for opening of new short positions with the target at 148.24. Stop-loss — 151.50.
Use more opportunities of the NPBFX analytical portal: E-book
If you just recently started to be interested in trading on FOREX and would like to deepen your knowledge, an electronic Beginner's Guide to FOREX Trading will be an excellent helper for you here. The book consists of 5 chapters and reflects fundamental concepts of the foreign exchange market to start successful trading. From the main chapters of the E-book you can learn about the concepts and history of FOREX, currencies and trend lines, technical indicators, types of orders, trading on news, psychology of trading, risk management and much more.
You can read a Beginner's guide to FOREX Trading online or download it free of charge from the NPBFX analytical portal in the "Education" section. In order to get unlimited access to the E-book and other useful instruments on the portal, you need to register on the NPBFX website.
If you have any questions about trading instruments, you can always ask an analyst in the online chat on the portal and get a free consultation of an experienced specialist.
Use the current recommendations of analysts on USD/JPY and trade efficiently with NPBFX.
Good afternoon, dear forum visitors!
NPBFX offers the latest release of analytics on USD/JPY or a better understanding of the current market situation and more efficient trading.
Current trend
The USD/JPY pair is recovering from a sharp decline at the end of last week, when local lows from October 21 were updated. During the Asian session, quotes are testing 150.65 for a breakout, supported by technical factors and in anticipation of key macroeconomic statistics on the US labor market at the end of the week. Nonfarm Payrolls are expected to increase by 183.0 thousand in November after increasing by 12.0 thousand in the previous month, Average Hourly Earnings are expected to adjust to 0.3% from 0.4% on a monthly basis, and the Unemployment Rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.1%. In turn, Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is projected to rise in December from 71.8 points to 72.9 points. On Wednesday, at 15:15 (GMT+2), the US will see a report from Automatic Data Processing (ADP) on private sector employment, with forecasts suggesting a slowdown in November from 233.0 thousand to 165.0 thousand, and at 21:00 (GMT+2), the US Federal Reserve’s monthly economic review, the Beige Book, will be released.
Meanwhile, the yen is being supported by statements by Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda that the cost of borrowing may soon be raised from the current 0.25% at a meeting on December 18-19, since macroeconomic statistics are consistent with the regulator's expectations. For now, officials will focus on implementing plans to index import tariffs announced by US President-elect Donald Trump.
Japan released Tokyo-area inflation data for November on Friday, with the annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising sharply from 1.8% to 2.6%, while the CPI excluding Food and Energy rose from 1.8% to 2.2%. Investors also noted the growth in Retail Sales in October from 0.5% to 1.6%, which, however, turned out to be worse than the expected 2.2%, while Industrial Production in monthly terms increased from 1.6% to 3.0% with preliminary estimates of 3.9%. Corporate spending accelerated in the third quarter, suggesting robust domestic demand is underway as the country's economic recovery bolsters the case for further monetary tightening: capital spending rose to 8.1% from 7.4% year-on-year and was up 1.7% on a seasonally adjusted basis. The data that will be used to calculate the revised Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures will hit the market on December 9 and are likely to confirm the domestic economy's performance in line with the Bank of Japan's forecasts.
Support and resistance
On the daily chart, Bollinger Bands are sharply reversing downwards. The price range expands, making way to new local lows for the "bears". MACD is going down preserving a stable sell signal (located below the signal line). In addition, the indicator is trying to consolidate below the zero level. Stochastic, having approached its lows, is trying to reverse into an ascending plane, signaling in favor of the development of the "bullish" trend in the near future.
Resistance levels: 151.50, 152.22, 153.18, 153.87.
Support levels: 150.50, 150.00, 149.45, 148.24.
Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after a breakout of 151.50 with the target of 153.18. Stop-loss — 150.50. Implementation time: 2-3 days.
A rebound from 151.50 as from resistance, followed by a breakdown of 150.50 may become a signal for opening of new short positions with the target at 148.24. Stop-loss — 151.50.
Use more opportunities of the NPBFX analytical portal: E-book
If you just recently started to be interested in trading on FOREX and would like to deepen your knowledge, an electronic Beginner's Guide to FOREX Trading will be an excellent helper for you here. The book consists of 5 chapters and reflects fundamental concepts of the foreign exchange market to start successful trading. From the main chapters of the E-book you can learn about the concepts and history of FOREX, currencies and trend lines, technical indicators, types of orders, trading on news, psychology of trading, risk management and much more.
You can read a Beginner's guide to FOREX Trading online or download it free of charge from the NPBFX analytical portal in the "Education" section. In order to get unlimited access to the E-book and other useful instruments on the portal, you need to register on the NPBFX website.
If you have any questions about trading instruments, you can always ask an analyst in the online chat on the portal and get a free consultation of an experienced specialist.
Use the current recommendations of analysts on USD/JPY and trade efficiently with NPBFX.
