Antony_NPBFX
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EUR/USD: President the ECB believes that the peak interest rate has not yet been set 30.06.2023
Good afternoon, dear forum visitors!
NPBFX offers the latest release of analytics on EUR/USD for a better understanding of the current market situation and more efficient trading.
Current trend
The EUR/USD pair shows a slight increase, recovering from an active decline for two trading sessions in a row, as a result of which the local lows of June 23 were updated. The instrument is testing the level of 1.0870 for a breakout, waiting for new drivers for the upward dynamics.
May statistics from Germany is in the focus of investors' attention today. In annual terms, Retail Sales decreased by 3.6%, while analysts assumed that the indicator would remain at the same level of -4.3%, and on a monthly basis it added 0.4% after 0.8% a month earlier, while experts expected zero dynamics. At the same time, the Unemployment Change in Germany may increase from 9.0 thousand to 13.0 thousand, and the Unemployment Rate may remain at the same level of 5.6%.
In addition, in the euro area today at 11:00 (GMT+2) June data on inflation will be published. Forecasts suggest that the Consumer Price Index will slow down from 6.1% to 5.6% in annual terms and show zero dynamics in monthly terms. The Core CPI for the same period, on the contrary, may rise from 0.2% to 0.7% in monthly terms and from 5.3% to 5.5% in annual terms. The day before, Germany reported on the acceleration of the Consumer Price Index in June from 6.1% to 6.4%, which was worse than market expectations at 6.3%.
Earlier, the President of the European Central Bank (ECB), Christine Lagarde, noted that inflation in the region is still kept well above the target level of 2.0%, increasing the likelihood of a 0.25% adjustment in the cost of borrowing at the regulator's July 27 meeting. The official stressed that the economy continues to experience the effects of inflationary shocks since the end of the pandemic and the rapid correction in energy prices. By gradually raising the interest rate from -0.50% last year to 3.50% this month, the regulator has made significant progress, she said, but cannot yet declare a victory over inflation.
In turn, pressure on the positions of the single currency is exerted by macroeconomic statistics from the US, presented yesterday. Revised data on the dynamics of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter revised upward from 1.3% to 2.0%, while analysts did not expect any changes at all.
Support and resistance
On the D1 chart Bollinger Bands are trying to reverse horisontally. the price range is narrowing, reflecting the mixed nature of trading in the short term, the MACD is decreasing, maintaining a relatively strong sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). Stochastic is showing similar dynamics, rapidly approaching its lows, pointing to the risks of the single currency being oversold in the ultra-short term.
Resistance levels: 1.0891, 1.0930, 1.0969, 1.1000.
Support levels: 1.0850, 1.0800, 1.0765, 1.0700.
Trading tips
Short positions may be opened after a breakdown of 1.0850 with the target at 1.0765. Stop-loss — 1.0891. Implementation time: 1-2 days.
A rebound from 1.0850 as from support followed by a breakout of 1.0891 may become a signal for opening new long positions with the target at 1.0969. Stop-loss — 1.0850.
Use more opportunities of the NPBFX analytical portal: analytics
You can find more actual analytical reviews on other popular currency pairs, metals and CFDs on the NPBFX online portal. Daily analytics with charts, current market prognoses and trading scenarios in the Feed section are available. Get free and unlimited access to the online portal after registering on the official website of NPBFX Company.
If you have any questions about trading instruments, you can always ask an analyst in the online chat on the portal and get a free consultation of an experienced specialist.
Use the current recommendations of analysts on EUR/USD and trade efficiently with NPBFX.
Good afternoon, dear forum visitors!
NPBFX offers the latest release of analytics on EUR/USD for a better understanding of the current market situation and more efficient trading.
Current trend
The EUR/USD pair shows a slight increase, recovering from an active decline for two trading sessions in a row, as a result of which the local lows of June 23 were updated. The instrument is testing the level of 1.0870 for a breakout, waiting for new drivers for the upward dynamics.
May statistics from Germany is in the focus of investors' attention today. In annual terms, Retail Sales decreased by 3.6%, while analysts assumed that the indicator would remain at the same level of -4.3%, and on a monthly basis it added 0.4% after 0.8% a month earlier, while experts expected zero dynamics. At the same time, the Unemployment Change in Germany may increase from 9.0 thousand to 13.0 thousand, and the Unemployment Rate may remain at the same level of 5.6%.
In addition, in the euro area today at 11:00 (GMT+2) June data on inflation will be published. Forecasts suggest that the Consumer Price Index will slow down from 6.1% to 5.6% in annual terms and show zero dynamics in monthly terms. The Core CPI for the same period, on the contrary, may rise from 0.2% to 0.7% in monthly terms and from 5.3% to 5.5% in annual terms. The day before, Germany reported on the acceleration of the Consumer Price Index in June from 6.1% to 6.4%, which was worse than market expectations at 6.3%.
Earlier, the President of the European Central Bank (ECB), Christine Lagarde, noted that inflation in the region is still kept well above the target level of 2.0%, increasing the likelihood of a 0.25% adjustment in the cost of borrowing at the regulator's July 27 meeting. The official stressed that the economy continues to experience the effects of inflationary shocks since the end of the pandemic and the rapid correction in energy prices. By gradually raising the interest rate from -0.50% last year to 3.50% this month, the regulator has made significant progress, she said, but cannot yet declare a victory over inflation.
In turn, pressure on the positions of the single currency is exerted by macroeconomic statistics from the US, presented yesterday. Revised data on the dynamics of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter revised upward from 1.3% to 2.0%, while analysts did not expect any changes at all.
Support and resistance
On the D1 chart Bollinger Bands are trying to reverse horisontally. the price range is narrowing, reflecting the mixed nature of trading in the short term, the MACD is decreasing, maintaining a relatively strong sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). Stochastic is showing similar dynamics, rapidly approaching its lows, pointing to the risks of the single currency being oversold in the ultra-short term.
Resistance levels: 1.0891, 1.0930, 1.0969, 1.1000.
Support levels: 1.0850, 1.0800, 1.0765, 1.0700.
Trading tips
Short positions may be opened after a breakdown of 1.0850 with the target at 1.0765. Stop-loss — 1.0891. Implementation time: 1-2 days.
A rebound from 1.0850 as from support followed by a breakout of 1.0891 may become a signal for opening new long positions with the target at 1.0969. Stop-loss — 1.0850.
Use more opportunities of the NPBFX analytical portal: analytics
You can find more actual analytical reviews on other popular currency pairs, metals and CFDs on the NPBFX online portal. Daily analytics with charts, current market prognoses and trading scenarios in the Feed section are available. Get free and unlimited access to the online portal after registering on the official website of NPBFX Company.
If you have any questions about trading instruments, you can always ask an analyst in the online chat on the portal and get a free consultation of an experienced specialist.
Use the current recommendations of analysts on EUR/USD and trade efficiently with NPBFX.