The US dollar index as expected made a steep decline yesterday following the remarks and policy announcement of ECB President Mario Draghi. The EUR/USD pair is the main component of the index, and the rally in that pair of more than 300 pips is likely to apply big pressure on the US dollar index.
Blue lines - bearish wedge (broken) As I have pointed out several times over the last few days, the US dollar index was inside a bearish wedge and it is expected to break downwards soon. Bulls should have raised their stops. Yesterday, I also said that at current levels the risk reward for being long on the USDX is not good for bulls.
The US dollar index got rejected at the previous high and resistance as expected. The stochastic oscillator was overbought both in the short- and long-term charts. The price has already reached the 38% Fibonacci retracement and has started a bounce. I do not believe the downward correction is over and we should expect more downside. Stops for short positions should be placed at recent highs, because if we now reach a new high, a target is seen at 104-105.
On the H1 chart, the USDX had a very bearish reaction after the ECB meeting and that is why we can currently observe a sharp drop towards the support level of 97.60, where a temporal bottom is found. However, we can expect a corrective move until the resistance zone of 98.80 in which a breakout could open the doors to test the level of 99.25. The MACD indicator is reaching oversold conditions.
H1 chart's resistance levels: 98.80 / 99.25 H1 chart's support levels: 97.60 / 97.01 Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USDX breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is seen at 98.80, take profit is at 99.25, and stop loss is at 98.34.
The US dollar index is bouncing as expected from the 38% Fibonacci retracement level towards the initial resistance of 99. Important medium-term resistance is found at 99.50, and only a breakout above it will ruin chances of reaching a lower low at 97.60.
Blue lines - upward sloping wedge broken In the 4-hour chart above, we can clearly see why the price is bouncing higher. The price has reached the 1st important support of the 38% Fibonacci level and we should see some more upside towards short-term resistance at 99. Eventually, I believe that we should expect another rejection at highs and a reversal to new lows below the recent low.
In the weekly chart, the price remains above the weekly kijun- and tenkan-sen indicators and of course above the Ichimoku cloud. I expect the price to hit a lower low in the area of 97.10-96.50 before resuming the uptrend. Long-term support is provided by the Ichimoku cloud at 94-93. A breakout above 100.50 will be a huge bullish signal.
The US dollar index has made a bounce, as we expected, reaching the 38% Fibonacci retracement resistance. We expect reversal soon towards the downside and towards new short-term lows after the rejection in the area of 100.
The price is below the Ichimoku cloud and we have signs of rejection at the 38% Fibonacci retracement. The price should now continue moving lower in order to test last week's lows. Resistance is seen at 99.50 while support is at 97.60.
The weekly candle remains above the Ichimoku cloud. Weekly support comes at 97.50 where the 38% Fibonacci retracement is found and where we saw prices bouncing last week. If this low is broken, we should expect the index to move lower towards the 50% retracement and even the 61.8% retracement.
The USDX has been recovering after a decline held until the support level of 97.60. Now it's looking for an opportunity to break the resistance zone of 98.80. A push higher will take this index to the 200 SMA on the H1 chart, which is very close to the level of 99.25. In another scenario, a breakout below the level of 97.60 will expose the USDX to test a low of 97.01. The MACD indicator is entering the neutral territory.
H1 chart's resistance levels: 98.80 / 99.25 H1 chart's support levels: 97.60 / 97.01 Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USDX breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is seen at 98.80, take profit is at 99.25, and stop loss is at 98.34.
The US dollar index got rejected at the 38% Fibonacci retracement resistance as we had expected pulling back down towards last week's lows. I expect dollar bulls to give a strong fight and not surrender as the support at 97.50 is very strong.
The US dollar index price is below the Ichimoku cloud heading lower towards the recent lows after the rejection at the 38% Fibonacci retracement. Support is found at 97.50 and resistance is seen at 98.70. Breaking above resistance could push the price towards 99-99.20. Breaking below support will push the index towards at least 97.20.
The weekly chart continues to be overbought and, despite a sharp decline, the stochastic oscillator has not fallen much. I believe more downside should be expected in the US dollar index over the next few weeks, but any prediction now is very dangerous considering the approaching FOMC meeting and the rate hike which is on the cards. Traders should be very cautious no matter how volatility is going to spike next week.
Daily analysis of USDX for December 09, 2015
On the H1 chart, the USDX did not show any considerable changes during Tuesday's session, as the index is trying to found strong resistance around the level of 98.80 in order to fall towards the support zone of 97.60 where buyers can appear. Anyway, our outlook for the USDX is still bearish in a short-term basis, but a rally towards the 200 SMA cannot be discarded yet.
H1 chart's resistance levels: 98.80 / 99.25 H1 chart's support levels: 97.60 / 97.01 Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the ISDX breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 98.80, take profit is at 99.25, and stop loss is at 98.34.
The US dollar index reached a new lower low of 97 as anticipated after the rejection in the area of 98.80-99. I believe that now US dollar bears should be very cautious as upward reversal is quite possible. Yesterday's high acts as important resistance.
In the 4-hour chart, the price is below the Ichimoku cloud. Short-term resistance is found at 98.10 and next at 99. Stochastics are oversold and a bounce should be expected over the next few days. We could see a lower low, but I believe traders should be starting to think of upward reversal.
In the weekly chart, the US dollar index has reached the 50% retracement. We could test even the kijun-sen and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 96.60-96.40. This is an important support and buy area. I believe that with the Fed raising rates next week, we should expect the US dollar to rally towards new highs.
The US dollar index bounced as we expected, but failed to breakout above short-term resistance. There is still a danger of seeing a new lower low in the US dollar index before a resumption of an uptrend. The longer-term chart continues to favor bulls.
The US dollar index is below the Ichimoku cloud. This is a bearish indicator. The price reached the kijun-sen (yellow line indicator) and got rejected. This resistance at 98.10 must be broken otherwise we should expect new lows towards 96.70.
The weekly chart remains above the tenkan-sen (red line indicator) and has bounced off the 50% retracement., Short-term trend is bearish but if we look at the weekly chart we still consider this as a corrective pullback, but not a change in the trend of a bigger degree.
The USDX is recovering from recent losses above the support level of 97.60 and it should be expected to test the 200 SMA in the H1 chart, where a pullback can happen because of the dynamic resistance offered. However, if the USDX wants to resume the bullish bias, then we should see first a higher high pattern formation above that moving average. The MACD indicator is entering the neutral territory.
H1 chart's resistance levels: 98.14 / 98.80 H1 chart's support levels: 97.60 / 97.01 Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the US dollar index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is found at 97.60, take profit is at 97.01, and stop loss is at 98.21.
