The US dollar index is testing important trend-line support of the triangle pattern. Unless it breaks it, we can see another bounce towards 96. However, it is preferred to stay neutral as the price remains inside the short-term triangle. The long-term bullish flag pattern remains valid.
Red line - resistance Green line - support The US dollar index has broken below the Ichimoku cloud and is testing the green upward sloping trend-line support. Things do not look good for USD bulls. To make the short-term trend bullish again, we need to see a break above 95.90. Critical resistance for the medium-term trend is at 96.60.
Red line - weekly resistance Green line - weekly support The bullish flag pattern remains valid. The price is approaching the weekly Ichimoku cloud while it remains inside the trading range of the flag pattern. A breakout above it will provide a buy signal. However I would prefer going long after breaking the 96.60 resistance level.
The US dollar index has broken the short-term triangle pattern and short-term support at 95.20 and is moving lower. The short-term trend is bearish. The longer-term bullish flag pattern is still valid as the price continues to trade within a big trading range where we prefer to stay neutral.
Red line - resistance Green line - support The US dollar index was rejected at the resistance a few days, and I would turn bullish only if we break out above 96.60. I preferred to stay neutral. The price has moved towards the lower triangle support at the green trend line where we first saw a bounce and the second time we broke below support. The price is also below the Ichimoku cloud therefore bears remain in control.
Green line - weekly support Red line -weekly resistance The US dollar index is testing the weekly Ichimoku cloud support. The price remains inside the bullish flag trading range. The long-term trend remains neutral. However, the stop level for any long position should be at 92.70 (June's low). Will the cloud support hold the decline and produce a bounce? More aggressive traders could try long positions with stop at 94 or 94.50. A bounce from this support area can be justified. More defensive traders should wait for a breakout of the flag.
The USDX continues to extend a pullback towards the support level of 95.26. We expect a rebound at the current levels, but current weakness in the index could be calling for a breakout below that level to find strong support around the 200 SMA in the daily chart where a dynamic bottom is located. The MACD indicator is entering the negative territory.
On the H1 chart, the USDX has been forming a lower low pattern below the resistance level of 95.38. Bear in mind the support zone of 95.03 is still a strong one. That is why we are watching for some irregular price action over there. Anyway, if the index achieves in breaking that territory, it could extend downwards until the level of 94.61.
Daily chart's resistance levels: 95.83 / 96.38 Daily chart's support levels: 95.26 / 94.36 H1 chart's resistance levels: 95.38 / 95.94 H1 chart's support levels: 95.03 / 94.61 Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the US dollar index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 95.03, take profit is at 94.61, and stop loss is at 95.44.
The US dollar index has broken the short-term triangle pattern and USD bulls are on the defensive. A break down should be expected as bears are now in control of a short-term trend.
Red line - resistance Green line - support (broken) The US dollar index found the short-term support at the 78.6% Fibonacci level of 94.60. The price is below the Ichimoku cloud confirming the bearish trend. Bulls need to break above the Ichimoku cloud at 96 in order to regain control of the trend.
Green line -weekly support Red line - weekly resistance The US dollar index is still trapped inside the trading range of the bullish flag. However, the weekly candle has entered the weekly Ichimoku cloud. This changed weekly trend to neutral. Bulls should be very cautious as bears are in control now. Only a strong bounce and breakout above 96 could shift trend to bullish again. I prefer to stay neutral over the longer-term as long as the price is inside this range
On the daily chart, the USDX is trading above the 200 SMA but the current pullback is expected to extend its fall towards the support zone of 94.36. Over that zone, a strong rebound could happen, which could deliver bulls back again to dominate the overall trend on this index. The MACD indicator is entering the negative territory.
The USDX is currently doing a consolidation below the resistance zone of 95.03 and we should note that the 200 SMA is still above the current price zone. The support level of 94.61 should be broken in coming hours in order to test the level of 94.15 on a short-term basis. The MACD indicator remains at the positive territory.
Daily chart's resistance levels: 95.26 / 95.83 Daily chart's support levels: 94.36 / 93.16 H1 chart's resistance levels: 95.03 / 95.38 H1 chart's support levels: 94.61 / 94.15 Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the US dollar index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 94.61, take profit is at 94.15, and stop loss is at 95.08.
Daily analysis of USDX for October 13, 2015
The USDX is holding the ground above the 200 SMA on the daily chart, and we could expect a test around the resistance level of 95.26. A breakout above it will make the index follow a mid-term rally, which could be pointing to a test in the resistance zone of 95.83. The MACD indicator remains at the negative territory.
On the H1 chart, the USDX is watching for strong bottom around 94.61 on an intraday basis, as the index is trading below the 200 SMA. This week should be the key one for the US dollar, as we can expect a lower continuation towards the level of 94.15. But be cautious with the current price action, as it is still showing some irregular signs.
Daily chart's resistance levels: 95.26 / 95.83 Daily chart's support levels: 94.36 / 93.16 H1 chart's resistance levels: 95.03 / 95.38 H1 chart's support levels: 94.61 / 94.15 Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the US dollar index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is seen at 94.61, take profit is at 94.15, and stop loss is at 95.08
The US dollar index tried to make a bounce off the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement but came back down to reach a new lower low. A trend remains bearish after breaking below the triangle pattern, which we mentioned in our previous analysis.
Green line - support (broken) Red line - resistance The US dollar index is trading below the Ichimoku cloud and short-term resistance levels by the kijun-sen (yellow line indicator). The price is moving towards lower lows and lower highs confirming the bearish trend. Resistance is now seen at 94.90. If it gets broken, we should expect a bounce towards 95.60.
Red line - weekly resistance Green line - weekly support The US dollar index weekly candle is entering the zone of the weekly Ichimoku cloud. This is not a good sign for the longer-term trend. Important support is found at 92, and important resistance is seen at 97. The bullish flag pattern remains intact. Longer-term traders should remain neutral and wait for a breakout before opening new position.
Daily analysis of USDX for October 14, 2015
On the daily chart, the USDX is currently trading above the 200 SMA, means the current bullish bias is still alive and we should wait for a rise towards the resistance zone of 95.26. However, if the index does a pullback at the level, it could try a consolidation below the moving average. The MACD indicator is at the negative territory.
The index is moving sideways on the H1 chart, but it still remains below the 200 SMA. The support level of 94.61 currently offers a good bottom for the USDX bears, and we could expect another corrective rebound before a decline takes place. The MACD indicator is entering the neutral territory.
Daily chart's resistance levels: 95.26 / 95.83 Daily chart's support levels: 94.36 / 93.16 H1 chart's resistance levels: 95.03 / 95.38 H1 chart's support levels: 94.61 / 94.15 Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the US dollar index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 94.61, take profit is at 94.15, and stop loss is at 95.08.
The US dollar index is moving in a bearish short-term trend but with increased chances of a bounce as we are trading near the lower channel boundary. The long-term trend remains neutral and a bullish flag is still valid.
Blue lines - bearish channel The US dollar index has broken the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. This is not a good sign for the USDX bulls, but the price is very close to the lower channel boundary. This justifies an at least short-term bounce. Resistance is found at 94.55 and at 95.35.
Red line -weekly resistance Green line - weekly support The weekly candle has entered the long-term Ichimoku cloud and this has changed trend to neutral. Bulls need to break above the Ichimoku cloud in order to regain control. The Ichimoku cloud resistance is found at 95.40. A weekly break above that level will be a clear bullish sign. Until then, we need to be patient as we could see a deeper correction towards the long-term 38% Fibonacci retracement at 92.20.
The USDX is extending losses below the 200 SMA on the daily chart with a big bearish Japanese candlestick. This should mean the index could start moving across the support level of 93.16 to find a bottom in the mid-term. However, there is still a high risk of a rebound at current levels, with a target around the level of 95.26.
