The US Dollar Index has bounced as expected from the 38% Fibonacci retracement. It is heading towards the green trend-line resistance at the level of 96.10 where we also find the Ichimoku cloud resistance. So, bulls are still not in control of the larger trend as we remain trapped below important resistance levels.
Green line - resistance The US Dollar Index is heading towards the Ichimoku cloud resistance at 96. This will be an important test for the index and combined with the Fed rate decision tomorrow it is preferred to stay neutral and wait for the dust to settle after tomorrow's announcement. All scenarios are open. Rejection and new pull back towards 94 or breakout above 96 and a push towards at least 98.
Red line - resistance Green line - support The weekly chart remains below the weekly kijun-sen indicator and below the red trend line resistance. Bulls need to break above the red trend-line resistance for this bullish flag to confirm the upside potential. Weekly support is found at 94 by the Ichimoku cloud and in the area of the previous lows around 92. We are trapped inside a trading range, so it is better to stay neutral until the Fed's rate decision.
The US Dollar Index was rejected once again by the green trend line resistance and pulled back towards the 38% Fibonacci retracement. With the FOMC meeting tonight, everyone expects the Fed rate decision. I prefer to wait with a neutral stance and let the dust settle after the Fed's rate announcement.
Green line - resistance The US Dollar Index remains below the Ichimoku cloud. Resistance remains at 96-96.10, so a daily close above this level will be a bullish signal. However, I believe we could still see a sharp decline towards the 61.8% retracement before resuming the uptrend.
Red line - resistance Green line - support The weekly chart remains in a neutral trend but with a bullish flag formation. Tonight we will have more information as to where the market is heading. Longer-term support is at 92-93 while resistance is seen at 96.50 and 98. A weekly close above the red trend-line resistance will be a bullish signal.
The USDX continues moving inside a range detween 95.83 and 95.26 on the daily chart ahead of the FOMC meeting. That is why we should trade this index very cautiously, as the USDX could start a rally towards the resistance level of 96.64 or a pullback until the support zone of 94.42, where the 200 SMA is located.
On the H1 chart, we can see a bearish structure placed below the 200 SMA, where we should be aware of further downside moves. However, there is a strong probability that we wouls see a bullish correction towards the 200 SMA again. If the support level of 95.20 is broken, the USDX will fall until the price zone of 94.75. The MACD indicator is trading at the negative territory.
Daily chart's resistance levels: 96.64 / 97.23 Daily chart's support levels: 95.83 / 95.26 H1 chart's resistance levels: 95.65 / 95.83 H1 chart's support levels: 95.41 / 95.20 Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the US Dollar Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 95.41, take profit is at 95.20, and stop loss is at 95.61.
On the daily chart, the USDX is reaching the 200 SMA after the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain the interest rates unchanged. The index could break the support level of 94.42 in coming days to reach a fresh low near the support zone of 93.18, which is below the moving average.
The index is currently moving into a bearish path below the 200 SMA on the H1 chart, with a lower low pattern formation below the resistance level of 94.57. A breakout below the support zone of 94.36 will push the USDX lower until 93.95. The MACD indicator is entering oversold territory, and that is why we could expect some corrective rebounds.
Daily chart's resistance levels: 95.26 / 95.83 Daily chart's support levels: 94.42 / 93.18 H1 chart's resistance levels: 94.57 / 94.97 H1 chart's support levels: 94.36 / 93.95 Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the US Dollar Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 94.36, take profit is at 93.95, and stop loss is at 94.75.
The US Dollar index made an upward bounce as expected from the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. The price has bounced back towards cloud resistance and dollar bulls could try to get some profit. We are below important resistance levels and bulls will need to show more strength in order to make a breakout.
Green line - resistance The US Dollar Index is testing short-term cloud resistance. I expect an initial price rejection at the current levels, but I do not give many chances of breaking below Friday's lows. I expect the price to reach a higher low and then reverse back upwards.
Red line - resistance Green line - support The US Dollar Index has touched the weekly Ichimoku cloud support and bounced strongly. Weekly resistance is found at 95.50-96 by the tenkan- and kijun-sen indicators. The weekly cloud is important support and I believe the index will hold above it. The bullish flag pattern is still in play but with no clear long-term signal yet.
The USDX is currently finding dynamic support over the 200 SMA on the daily chart, after its losses after the Fed's meeting last week. Currently, we expect a breakout over the resistance level of 95.26, which would expose the zone of 95.83 as the next area for sellers. The MACD indicator is entering the negative territory again.
On the H1 chart, the index is looking for an opportunity to move lower towards the support level of 94.97, because the 200 SMA is offering dynamic resistance in this time frame. After that move, the USDX could try a breakout below the support level of 94.97 in order to reach the next zone around the level of 94.57 on a short-term basis.
Daily chart's resistance levels: 95.26 / 95.83 Daily chart's support levels: 94.42 / 93.18 H1 chart's resistance levels: 95.34 / 95.67 H1 chart's support levels: 94.97 / 94.57 Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the US Dollar Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 94.97, take profit is at 94.57, and stop loss is at 95.37.
The US Dollar index has continued moving higher towards the green trendline resistance and has not pulled back. I'm bullish on the index, but I would prefer to protect my longs since there are many chances of a pullback in the index.
Green line - trendline resistance The pice is currently above the green trendline and above the Ichimoku cloud. It is important to see where we close today as a close above these resistance levels is important for the continuation of the uptrend. Pullbacks should be bought as, I believe, the longer-term bullish flag pattern will break upwards.
Red line - resistance Green line - support The weekly chart shows how the price tests the kijun-sen resistance area. The price is above the weekly cloud support and I would not be surprised to see the index reach the red trendline resistance over the coming days. This pattern is a bullish flag and I will be extremely bullish if the index breaks out above the resistance. Target is new highs above 102.
On the daily chart, the USDX is currently consolidating above the support zone of 95.83, focusing on the resistance level of 96.38. It is expected to see a bullish formation during the process, because the index is still strong. However, the pullbacks should take the USDX until the level of 95.26. The MACD indicator is entering the positive territory.
The index is performing a bullish consolidation above the 200 SMA on the H1 chart, because the USDX has been trading upwards during the day. This rally held during Monday's session has already given us a path, which will be followed by the USDX during this week at least, so be aware of further rallies. The MACD indicator is reaching overbought conditions.
Daily chart's resistance levels: 96.38 / 96.91 Daily chart's support levels: 95.81 / 95.26 H1 chart's resistance levels: 95.94 / 96.15 H1 chart's support levels: 95.67 / 95.34 Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the US Dollar Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 95.67, take profit is at 95.34, and stop loss is at 95.99.
The US Dollar Index managed to continue showing strength and broke out above the first important resistance. Although trend remains bullish, I believe there are a lot of chances to see a rejection at the previous highs of 96.60 and a pullback.
Green line - resistance trend line Red line - horizontal resistance of previous high The US Dollar Index is trading above the Ichimoku cloud and has already broken the green downward sloping trend line. This is a bullish signal. However, we also have an important resistance at 96.60 where the previous high was reached. A pullback from current levels is very possible, however I would only focus on buying on the pullbacks. Do not go short on the US dollar.
Green line - support Red line - resistance The weekly chart shows how the price is testing the kijun-sen weekly resistance indicator at 96.50-96.60. A breakout above it will open the way towards the red trend-line resistance. I expect the bullish flag that to be broken during next weeks and the USDX to rally towards new highs.
The USDX continues to be dominated by the bullish bias above the support level of 95.83 and the mid-term structure is currently calling for more upside towards the zone around 96.91. However, a pullback should be expected at current levels, which could also push the index lower towards the support level of 95.83 again.
On the H1 chart, there is still a bullish consolidation in place above the 200 SMA and the support level of 96.15. Currently, a higher high pattern formation is observed on the chart and a breakout above the level of 96.35 will open doors to a test at the level of 96.15. However, a pullback at current levels should push the index lower towards at least 95.95.
Daily chart's resistance levels: 96.38 / 96.91 Daily chart's support levels: 95.81 / 95.26 H1 chart's resistance levels: 96.35 / 96.51 H1 chart's support levels: 96.15 / 95.94 Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the US Dollar Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 96.15, take profit is at 95.94, and stop loss is at 96.35.
