Instaforex: USDX Index Analysis

[abu85]

Daily analysis of USDX for August 24, 2015

The bearish path is still dominating the current outlook on the daily chart of USDX, where we're watching a lower trading towards the support level of 94.59, which could be broken in next few days in order to test the 200 SMA. That moving average could provide "provisional" dynamic support because the index is oversold in the lower time frames.

On H1 chart, USDX is forming a lower low pattern above the support zone of 94.80, which is trying to block the bearish force. However, 200 SMA is bearish and it could mean the index will perform lower moves. So the index is looking to reach new lows as the bearish momentum remains alive. MACD indicator is on the negative territory.

Daily chart's resistance levels: 95.50 / 96.57 Daily chart's support levels: 94.59 / 93.71 H1 chart's resistance levels: 95.25 / 95.46 H1 chart's support levels: 94.80 / 94.39 Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 94.80, take profit is at 94.39, and stop loss is at 95.21.

 

[abu85]

USDX technical analysis for August 25, 2015
The Dollar index has broken the long-term triangle pattern to the downside and has managed to reach our target of 92 within the day. The trend remains bearish and there is a higher chance that we have not seen the low of this down cycle.

The Dollar index is expected to make a bounce towards the 38% Fibonacci retracement at least. So Dollar bulls will get the opportunity to trim their losses. The medium-term trend remains bearish but we have some short-term reversal signs. The trend is to the downside and traders should only focus on waiting to see new lows and not try to play the upside bounce.

Green line - support Red line -resistance The weekly chart of the Dollar index is in a bearish trend. We could see a bounce and a backtest of the breakdown area. The Dollar index has also nearly approached our 92 target where the 38% Fibonacci retracement is found. Price is above the weekly Ichimoku cloud. I expect more downside pressures for the Dollar index and I see any upward move only as a corrective bounce and opportunity to sell.

 

[abu85]

Daily analysis of USDX for August 25, 2015

On the daily chart, USDX is finding strong bottom across the 93.00 level. The 200 SMA is located very close above that zone. We should take the current move as a corrective one in favor of the overall long-term bullish trend. However, this should be invalidated when a breakout happens below the 89.00 psychological level.

Index continues to strength the bearish bias on H1 chart with a lower low pattern formation above the 93.18 level, where a support zone is located. The lower push could continue during the coming hours as the USDX is still weak in a short-term outlook, but the corrections will come soon. MACD indicator is entering the positive territory.

Daily chart's resistance levels: 93.71/ 94.59 Daily chart's support levels: 93.00 / 91.70 H1 chart's resistance levels: 93.78 / 94.39 H1 chart's support levels: 93.18 / 92.73
Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 93.18, take profit is at 92.73, and stop loss is at 93.62.

 

[abu85]

USDX technical analysis for August 26, 2015

The US Dollar index made a strong bounce above our short-term target yesterday. The price moved above the 38% Fibonacci retracement but got rejected by the kijun-sen resistance. The trend remains bearish and, I believe, it is more probable we see new short-term lows before the start of the next bullish move to new highs.

The US Dollar index has found resistance at the kijun-sen (yellow indicator) and got rejected. In order for the index to move higher we need to see at least a 2-hour close above 94.58. If it happens, we could see the price bounce towards 95.35 at least. Support is at 93.56. If it is broken, I expect to see 92.

Red line - resistance Green line- support The weekly chart shows the formation of a bullish flag. Bulls want a breakout above the red resistance line. Cloud support is below the price and underpins the longer-term bullish trend. Eventually, I believe, we shall see a breakout to new highs. Support is found around the 92 level where, in my opinion, is a good entry level for longs.

 

[abu85]

Daily analysis of USDX for August 26, 2015

The daily chart shows an effort of consolidation above the 200 SMA, after the index failed to break out below the support zone of 93.00. The USDX also tested the resistance level of 94.59, which is the level that could be broken in order to reach the next zone of interest for sellers around the level of 95.26.

On the H1 chart, the USDX recovered some losses at the weekly opening. The USDX will look for an opportunity to break the resistance level of 94.71 in order to reach the 200 SMA in this time frame, but bear in mind that the current structure is still calling for the downside. The MACD indicator is entering the negative territory.

Daily chart's resistance levels: 94.59 / 95.26 Daily chart's support levels: 93.71 / 93.00 H1 chart's resistance levels: 93.78 / 94.39 H1 chart's support levels: 93.18 / 92.73 Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the US Dollar Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is seen at 93.78, take profit is at 93.18, and stop loss is at 94.39.

 

[abu85]

USDX technical analysis for August 27, 2015

The US Dollar Index continued its upward bounce towards the 61.8% retracement, and I believe that bulls should be very cautious as we could see a bearish reversal soon. I believe it is more probable now to see a reversal towards new short-term lows in order to complete the bullish flag before the resumption of the long-term bullish trend.

The US Dollar Index is below the Ichimoku cloud resistance and has already been rejected at the 61.8% retracement. Support is found at 94.50 where we the tenkan-sen (red indicator) is found. Breaking below this support will accelerate the selling pressure.

Red line - resistance Green line - support Although I see a bullish flag being formed here, I believe the short-term upside is limited. We should see a push towards lows near 92. Then, the index is likely to resume its longer-term uptrend towards new highs. This scenario will be canceled if we break above the red line first.

 

[abu85]

Daily analysis of USDX for August 27, 2015
On the daily chart, as it was expected, the USDX found dynamic support at the 200 SMA and is currently performing a rebound above it, which is now shifting the focus towards the resistance levels of 95.83 and 96.64 respectively. A pullback towards the level of 94.59 should be expected, but the bullish tone is still alive.

The US Dollar Index is facing the 200 SMA dynamic resistance now offered on the H1 chart, around the level of 95.33, where we a pullback towards 95.08 should be expected. However, if the USDX breaks the resistance level of 95.33, it would be expected to test the zone around 95.68. The 200 SMA is neutral and the MACD indicator remains in the positive territory.

Daily chart's resistance levels: 95.83 / 96.64 Daily chart's support levels: 95.26 / 94.59 H1 chart's resistance levels: 95.33 / 95.68 H1 chart's support levels: 95.08 / 94.71
Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the US Dollar Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 95.08, take profit is at 94.71, and stop loss is at 95.47

 

[abu85]

USDX technical analysis for August 28, 2015

The US Dollar index did not reverse from the 61.8% retracement yesterday but extended its bounce towards the Ichimoku cloud resistance and the 78.6% retracement. The price is showing signs of a trend reversal and rejection so I feel more confident we have seen the highs and a new short-term downward move has started.

The US Dollar index is below the Ichimoku cloud resistance and I prefer to open short positions for the short term. Resistance and stop for bulls can be the 96.10 level. On the other hand, bulls will want to defend this short-term uptrend and do not want to see a rejection at the current levels and a break below 94.95.

Red line - resistance Green line - support The US Dollar index continued with its bounce higher, but, I believe, the weekly resistance by the tenkan-sen and kijun-sen at 95.50 and 96.50 will not be broken and we will see a rejection. I believe that the final push lower for the US Dollar index has started and we should expect the price to reach the green trendline support and the Ichimoku cloud on the weekly chart. My target is near 92.

 

[abu85]

Daily analysis of USDX for August 28, 2015

Bullish momentum is still alive in the daily time frame where the US Dollar Index is performing a rebound above the 200 SMA. This Index is now facing the resistance level at 95.83. In case of a breakout, the USDX will test the level of 96.64. The MACD indicator is oversold.

On the H1 chart, the USDX is trying to consolidate above the 200 SMA and the support level of 95.68. The Index will try to break the resistance level of 96.09 in order to reach the zone of 96.39. There is a higher swing calling for more upside in the short and mid-term, so the USDX is likely to trade in a bullish tone during the next week.

Daily chart's resistance levels: 95.83 / 96.64 Daily chart's support levels: 95.26 / 94.59 H1 chart's resistance levels: 96.08 / 96.39 H1 chart's support levels: 95.68 / 95.33 Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the US Dollar Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 96.08, take profit is at 96.39, and stop loss is at 95.77.

 

[abu85]

Technical analysis of USD INDEX for August 31, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups: The US Dollar Index monthly chart shows the rally that resumed in 2008. It still has room on the upside with levels of 101.00/102.00 acting as immediate potential extensions. It is hence recommended to initiate fresh long positions on the US Dollar Index with risk at 92.00 now. Immediate support is seen at 92.00 (interim) followed by 90.00 and lower, while resistance is seen at 101.00/102.00 levels and higher.
Trading recommendations: Initiate fresh long positions now, stop is set at 92.00, a target is in the area of 101.00/102.00. Good luck!