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Instaforex: USDX Index Analysis

Daily analysis of USDX for August 17, 2015

On the daily chart, USDX has been looking to extend losses until the support level of 95.50. However, the overall trend is still bullish and current price action is calling to the upper side, so we should see a test of the zone around the 97.57 level in coming days. 200 SMA is turning neutral and MACD remains on the negative territory.

USDXDaily.png


USDX found strong support around the 96.37 level and it could test the resistance zone of 96.88, where the 200 SMA is currently located on H1 chart. We could expect a pullback to happen at this level that gives a bearish momentum to the Index. However, a breakout over there will push the USDX until the 97.37 level. MACD indicator is entering the overbought territory.
USDXH1.png


Daily chart's resistance levels: 96.57 / 97.57 Daily chart's support levels: 95.50 / 94.70 H1 chart's resistance levels: 96.37 / 96.88 H1 chart's support levels: 95.94 / 95.60 Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 95.94, take profit is at 95.60, and stop loss is at 96.28.

 
USDX technical analysis for August 18, 2015

The Dollar index has broken the short-term resistance level of the 38% Fibonacci retracement and is trying to push higher towards the Ichimoku cloud on the 4-hour chart. However, the medium-term trend is bearish with a possible pullback towards the triangle support at 95.

usdx.jpg


The Dollar index has broken above the kijun-sen resistance (yellow line) and is heading towards the Ichimoku cloud. I expect to see price get rejected at that level and give new lows. I believe the downside is not over for the Dollar. Support is at 96.10 and resistance at 97.10.

usdxd.jpg


Red line - resistance Green line - support The Dollar index remains inside the triangle pattern and is testing the 1st support area as shown by the blue rectangle areas. The Dollar index should push towards the lower triangle boundary towards 95. A break above the triangle will imply the start of a new uptrend towards new highs.

 
Daily analysis of USDX for August 18, 2015

USDX is still trading above the support level of 96.57 and which could be in front of two possible scenarios. One of them is a rebound towards new highs, possibly doing a breakout around the 97.57 level. The other is a lower continuation below the support zone of 96.57 with a mid-term target towards the 95.50 level.

1439850455_USDXDaily.png


On H1 chart, USDX recovered some positions to the upside. Now, it's testing the 200 SMA price zone around the 96.88 level. A breakout over there will push the index to test the next resistance level of 97.37, which is above of that moving average. However, a pullback could happen until the 96.37 level before that possible rally.

1439850461_USDXH1.png


Daily chart's resistance levels: 96.57 / 97.57 Daily chart's support levels: 95.50 / 94.70 H1 chart's resistance levels: 96.88 / 97.37 H1 chart's support levels: 96.37 / 95.94
Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 96.37, take profit is at 95.94, and stop loss is at 96.28.
 
USDX technical analysis for August 19, 2015

The Dollar index got rejected at the Ichimoku cloud resistance as expected. Price has turned lower towards the kijun-sen support and we have a short-term reversal signal. The back test of the break down is complete and I believe we should start a new downward move towards 95 at least.

usdx.jpg


As can be seen in the 4-hour chart above,the Dollar index has reached the 97.15 resistance area by the Ichimoku cloud and got rejected. This is a bearish signal. Resistance is at 97.15. Support is at the kijun-sen (yellow indicator) at 96.55.

usdxd.jpg


Red line - resistance Green line - support The weekly chart continues to show price trapped inside the triangle. If we look closer, price is now also trapped between the kijun- and tenkan-sen indicators. I believe price will eventually push towards the lower triangle boundary at the green trend line support. A break above the triangle will be a buy signal for me with new highs as target.

 
Daily analysis of USDX for August 19, 2015

On the daily chart, USDX has been trading in a bullish bias above the support level of 96.57, which is currently developing into a possible rebound towards the resistance zone of 97.57. We're still expecting a breakout over there for a higher continuation, but eventually, the index could pullback until the 96.57 level again.

USDXDaily.png


USDX recovered from losses and now it's trading above the 200 SMA on H1 chart. There a pullback to the support level of 96.37could happen. However, if bulls are still strong during this action, the USDX will rise to the resistance zone of 97.37, where it should perform a breakout towards the 97.72 level.

USDXH1.png


Daily chart's resistance levels: 96.57 / 97.57 Daily chart's support levels: 95.50 / 94.70 H1 chart's resistance levels: 97.37 / 97.62 H1 chart's support levels: 96.88 / 96.37 Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 96.88, take profit is at 96.37, and stop loss is at 97.38.

 
Daily analysis of USDX for August 20, 2015

USDX is performing some pullbacks and extending the correction below the 96.57 level. The daily chart is still showing an alive bullish bias, but the Index seems to be prepared to extend the corrections towards new monthly lows, as the USDX reached extreme zones. 200 SMA is still bullish and MACD indicator is on the negative territory.

USDXDaily.png


On H1 chart, USDX found dynamic resistance around the 200 SMA and the index is finding strong bottom at the support level of 96.37. That's why we should expect a breakout of that level, towards the 96.04 zone. We should expect a bearish trend which could last for the short and at mid term. MACD indicator remains on the negative territory.

USDXH1.png


Daily chart's resistance levels: 96.57 / 97.57 Daily chart's support levels: 95.50 / 94.59 H1 chart's resistance levels: 97.37 / 97.62 H1 chart's support levels: 96.88 / 96.37 Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 96.37, take profit is at 96.04, and stop loss is at 96.72.

 
USDX technical analysis for August 20, 2015

The Dollar index got rejected yesterday as we expected and moved towards the short-term support of 96. For now this support level is held but price remains in the bearish trend.

usdx.jpg


Red line - resistance Blue line - support The Dollar index is below the Ichimoku cloud in the 4-hour chart. Price is in a bearish trend as long as we are below the Ichimoku cloud. However short-term support is held for now. A break below 96.20-96.10 will signal more weakness to come and push the index towards 95.

usdxd.jpg


Red line - resitance Green line - support The weekly chart shows how price remains inside the triangle pattern. Price is also below the kijun-sen indicator and is heading towards the tenkan-sen support. If broken, we should see the lower triangle boundary at the 95 area. A break above the triangle will imply a new trend starting and new highs coming.

 
USDX technical analysis for August 21, 2015

The Dollar index broke below support levels yesterday as I initially expected and pushed lower towards the 95 support level. The longer-term price pattern remains inside the triangle boundaries. Price is heading towards 95 where the lower triangle boundaries are found.

usdx.jpg


Blue line - broken support Red line - resistance trend line The Dollar index has broken below the 96 support and has reached the 1st short-term target of 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Price is below the Ichimoku cloud and trend remains bearish.

usdxd.jpg


Red line - resistance Green line - support The Dollar index remains inside the triangle pattern and is heading towards the lower triangle boundary as expected. Short-term trend is bearish but medium- to long-term trend remains neutral. We have been inside this triangle for more than 5 months. I believe the 95 area should be a buy area as I believe support will be held. A breakout above the triangle will be a bullish signal targeting new highs.

 
Daily analysis of USDX for August 21, 2015

On the daily chart, bears are pushing the index lower until the support level of 95.50, which is a zone that can be tested in the coming hours at least. That's why we should expect a rebound over there, where a correction should happen before any further lower continuation. MACD indicator remains on the negative territory.
USDXDaily.png


The short-term outlook is very bearish, as the USDX continues to break supports on the downside road. Now it's testing the support level of 95.74. A breakout there will open the doors to fall until the 95.46 level at least. However, bear in mind the current bias is indicating oversold conditions in the short term.

USDXH1.png


Daily chart's resistance levels: 96.57 / 97.57 Daily chart's support levels: 95.50 / 94.59 H1 chart's resistance levels: 96.04 / 96.37 H1 chart's support levels: 95.74 / 95.46 Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 95.74, take profit is at 95.46, and stop loss is at 96.04.

 
USDX technical analysis for August 24, 2015

The Dollar index has reached our target of 95 and has also moved a bit lower. The Dollar index is testing the lower triangle boundary of the weekly chart and this is important support. However, we should not rule out the chance of a breakdown and a push even lower towards 92.

usdxd2%20(2).jpg


Red line - resistance Green line - support The Dollar index is testing the lower triangle boundary. A weekly close below it can push the index towards the 92 level where the 38% Fibonacci retracement support is found.

usdx.jpg


Blue line - support broken Red line - resistance The Dollar index remains in a bearish trend. My last sell signal was once 96 was broken and we have reached and surpassed the 1st short-term target of 95. The trend is bearish and Dollar bulls are in danger. A reversal should occur today or at the latest tomorrow for dollar bulls to remain alive. Otherwise, they should prepare for a deeper correction to 92 or even lower.

 

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